General Betting
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Who or what makes a price suddenly contract on a football match here?
I'm looking at the Bolton Arsenal game, the price had been steady all week and then it suddenly shortens dramatically
This is not infrequent
All relevant information is known, Arsenal were offered at 1.8 by bookmakers. It isn't a great price and yet it crashes. Is there some sort of football pricewise or similar that makes a price shorten like this?
I'm looking at the Bolton Arsenal game, the price had been steady all week and then it suddenly shortens dramatically
This is not infrequent
All relevant information is known, Arsenal were offered at 1.8 by bookmakers. It isn't a great price and yet it crashes. Is there some sort of football pricewise or similar that makes a price shorten like this?
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Probably due to big money (in Asia ?) wanting to get on.
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Bets being place in Asia.
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Is it smart money from Asia or is there some other unknown betting force from Asia I am unaware of?
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Not smart money, just big money. Sometimes it wins, sometimes it loses, just because it comes from Asia does not mean the people placing it are any more clued up then people here.
As an example, a year or two ago, there was a huge gamble on Stevenage to beat Port Vale in an FA Cup first round replay, leading to 4.4 being available on the league side and Stevenage being odds on! Now I have no idea who in Asia caused this, but they must have been a total mug as anyone who knows the first thing about football knew the odds were laughably wrong, and won accordingly. |
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So I guess there is good money in either laying those or backing the others...
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Despite Port Vale winning that match, I would be confident the main drivers of the price move, whoever they were, knew both an awful lot more about that match and football in general. And will be less muggish than any posters on this forum.
Just my view. |
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The silverback, fine, you are entitled to your view, but anyone particapting in that gamble which drove a conference side's price to odds on when playing a team a division above them is clueless in my book. And I said so on the thread at the time.
I'd go as far to say it was one of the biggest mug gambles I'd ever seen in betting. |
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The original price of 2.3 was about correct, in that it stated that both teams were of approximate equal ability, a top conference side versus a mid table team a division above. The kick off price of around 1.8 indicated that Stevenage were not just superior, but vastly so. Like I say, anyone who knows anything about football knew that to be total rubbish.
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Major market movers aren't like all these people you mention who think they know about football. They really do know about football. And also about betting. And often information nowhere near the public domain.
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The people who move markets have money, they have money because they are extremely good at what they do.
If you see a move your better going in that direction yourself than opposing it imo, even if the prices do seem "crazy". |
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There's the initial move and then the overreaction that always follows which is the best point to get involved imo
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Oh, so to make a price change you actually have to know something about football and betting, do you?
 What utter codswallop. I suppose that these high rollers that ladbrokes keep bragging about how much they win from are all experts, are they?  The idea that these donks in Asia know more about an FA Cup first round replay (between two sides the vast majority of which will never even have heard of) rather than people who follow the leagues in this country of is truly comical. What information "nowhere near the public domain" did they suddenly discover in the day or two prior to the game, prey tell? If you want to think they are some sort of gambling / football geniuses then fine, let there be many more gambles like that one! The truth is in that instance they were just clueless guessers like so many others... |
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turtle, I don't think it's about the cleverness of individuals.
As the Asian betting market is much bigger than the European one, the pricing will be more accurate. Just like the pricing on an EPL match is likely to be much more efficient than a random eastern European game, because so much more is bet on it. |
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What else was there to lump on this afternoon other than arsenal? Thats the way people think.
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Smashing Arsenal in to 1.66 when they had been 1.80+ for days before doesn't seem to shrewd to me
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Sure, mug highrollers can move a market. But, and I don't profess to know exactly how it works, often the guys they bet with will know it's mug money so there won't necessarily be a market move.
Turtles - what i don't think you realise is that all the big European syndicates bet in Asia regardless of where they are based. They can't "get down" otherwise and betfair is nowhere near liquid enough to accomodate them. It's not all mug Asians betting in Asia. The main Asian market movers are likely to be based in England. |
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Tobermory. I don't know if it was shrewd or not. But the sums these people bet in requires a liquid market so I shouldn't think betting early is an option.
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The Investor, I don't see any evidence to support the idea that just because the bet originates in Asia, the price has to be accurate.
Like I said in my example, the opening price of 2.3 was correct for the reasons I mentioned. The sp price of 1.8 or so was total rubbish. And I can't honestly imagine why an FA Cup first round replay was of such interest to them in any case! |
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If money represents information and there is more money on Asian markets it's a safe assumption.
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no money = no information = football forum
(dont tell them i said that  ) |
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Hello there ÖÐÎÄÂÛ̳.
My guess is this. People looked at the game and saw that Arsenal had everything to play for in this game as they are (or rather were still chasing the league title) whilst bolton had absolutely nothing to play for. Also the last game Arsenal played really well against a very good Tottenham game and were a bit unlucky not to win whilst Bolton got smashed 5-0. People love to bet on what they think will happen rather than what is value and for many people these factors indicate that Arsenal just had to win. Yesterday Chelsea came in as well again because it was a game they just had to win. When you notice this happening on other games does it tend to be the price of the favourite or a big team coming in at the last minute. It is for me. Do you see the price on Barca drifting wildly at the last minute when they are playing some lower table tripe at home and there is no new team news? I don't. As for why there were large bets just before kick off, could be anyone or any reason, don't know why they have to come from Asia, other countries have rich people that like to bet. My guess would be that it is various bookmakers that have taken lots of bets on Arsenal to win for reasons mentioned above and are reducing their liability just before kick-off. It is just a guess though and i'm just not quite into all this conspiracy theory stuff like how some asain triads have a member in the Arsenal club inner circle who has informed them and them only that "the Arsenal players really are up for it today even more so than usual". It must be because i am some poorfor naive betfair user and not as "street" as other people. |
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if these mysterious asians are so clever, why do they crash the price rather than get on in stages at a better aggregate price?
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that could take a while.
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so what have we established - that they're smart, or that they're impatient?
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well if you had some information such as lineups well before everybody else you've got a set period of time to get your money matched before the lineups are released or somebody else beats you to it.
Like the Spurs match last season, somebody clearly knew the lineups in advance and the odds went ballistic., |
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that would be fine in the case of surprise team selections (eg the odds shift on the man u game yesterday), but what was the surprise in the arsenal selection today?
as far as i can see there was no real change in the fundamentals behind the arsenal game. |
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There was no change , no new info whatever
Anyone who just follows the price down as low as they have to in order to get the bet on is a mug however much they are betting |
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How do we know it is Asians? - I always thought it was the Swedish betting maching......
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I think at least SOME of the big changes are bookies laying off liabilities in a lump? Why they don't drip it a bit I'm not sure as they would you'd think get better prices.
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i think the result of other teams have an impact on teams odds. For instance the fact that both manchester and chelse winning before arsenal played would make them(arsenal) more motivated to win inorder to keep the race for the second place and the title, hence, a shorter odd compared t the previous days. by the way if manchester had lost or drew i think most probably the odds for arsenal win would have shorten a lot more.
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It all seems a little strange to me! 50 million China men watching Stevenage v Port Vale, how bizarre.
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Well i dont really know any specifics,... but to Cite old Kaiser Willhelm:
"Beware of the yellow Danger" |
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turtleshead could it have been possible that that match you mentioned was manipulation. These guys could start a move like that and then switch to layers when people start piling in?
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I suspect that's often the case WWCD. Happens regularly in horse racing with the favourite's price swinging back and forward like a pendulum. Another stupidity of the betfair interface.
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of course, there's also the possibility that big name teams get laid at stupid prices to the locals in asia, then the layers hedge on here overnight.
would love to see the books on epl games in the far east. I bet there are overrounds that would make baldfred come in his ill-fitting trousers. |
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Most of you are missing the point that, despite the market being based in Asia, the largest movers of the majority of the Asian markets are in fact more likely to be European based professional bettors / syndicates than crazy Asian punters.
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sorry silverback, but i just don't buy that pros and syndicates would bet in such a price insensitive way.
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What's price insensitive about it?
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Hence the immense liquidity on Asian handicaps on betfair?
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