General Betting
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21 Feb 11
16:29
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Date Joined:
12 Mar 07
you are always taking prices, rather than putting them up ever.
By consistently taking prices, you are thus virtually always betting against professional mkt. makers and not other joe blow punters.
As such, can you really hope to win long term, as the " professional mkt.makers" must be generally classifiable as being smarter and/or better informed than ordinary recreational punters ?
Is is therefore an oversimplification to say
Always taking prices = guaranteed long term losses ?
By consistently taking prices, you are thus virtually always betting against professional mkt. makers and not other joe blow punters.
As such, can you really hope to win long term, as the " professional mkt.makers" must be generally classifiable as being smarter and/or better informed than ordinary recreational punters ?
Is is therefore an oversimplification to say
Always taking prices = guaranteed long term losses ?
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You wonder why bookmakers ban winning punters since based on that simplification they would all be long term losers.
I'd generally sooner take 1.82 than leave an offer up at 1.83 fwiw |
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The Market is not just put together by " professional mkt.makers" though is it.
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Of course you can by taking a price.
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you should do both of course.
pro market makers often get it wrong too |
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I put an offer to lay up of 3.1 the other day on a thin market (bet jumped by a parasite at 3.15)... the bet got matched and the next time I looked someone put an offer up to back it at 2.5. I took the 2.5 without hesitation but on the posters assumption it was shrewd to lay at 3.1 but not at 2.5. My average lay price fell from 3.1 to 2.6 whilst the parasite's ave lay price was probably 3.15. Extreme example of course.
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Based on Clydebank's first excellent response point about bookies banning successful punters, the answer is clearly that it is an oversimplification.
If you can successfully cherry pick the prices you always take( by using some " secret " proven value selection criteria presumably), then you can and should come out ahead long term. The key is being selective I suppose. The biggest fear of professional mkt. makers must always be being picked off by selective and patient value driven punters. Luckily though, I suppose, there are not too many of them around ? |
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The Market is never 'made' in any definitive, final way.
Prices move around to an extraordinary degree, right up til the off,but even the final market is no more likely to be correct,postpone the race for an hour and you would get more dramatic swings, because people have different opinions, and completely different approaches/motives.You have the Market Makers , trying to Lay a book, Traders trying to close their positions, and then an influx late on of people who have just won/lost on the previous race and are playing with their winnings or chasing losses. These were the pre off matched prices of the favourite in the last race at Turfway: 1.93 £1,200 1.94 £216 1.95 £1,520 1.96 £1,292 1.97 £791 1.98 £478 1.99 £1,662 2.00 £3,372 2.02 £678 2.04 £329 2.06 £30 2.08 £276 2.10 £71 2.12 £107 2.14 £611 2.16 £520 2.18 £183 2.20 £206 2.22 £216 2.24 £111 2.26 £244 2.28 £652 2.30 £445 2.32 £57 2.34 £18 2.36 £539 2.38 £4 2.40 £36 2.42 £4 2.44 £23 2.46 £34 2.48 £269 2.50 £64 2.52 £98 2.54 £115 2.56 £37 2.58 £0 2.60 £14 2.62 £3 2.64 £12 2.66 £4 2.68 £17 2.70 £14 2.72 2.74 2.80 £20 2.86 £19 Clearly there was value somewhere on there for both backing and laying that horse, for anyone who is good at pricing up a race. And that is fairly typical. And a UK race will have 20 times as much matched . |
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Yes.
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Yes to the first question that is. You can hope to win.
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If the odds you take are good value, it doesn't matter who puts them up.
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I could hope to win if i was living in a gutter selling trashed cardboard for a few pennys to gamble every night instead of buying food or clean water. without hope what is left?
 hope |
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Mgt
Not true. Certainly it's not stable enough to use if you're trading in any form or manner, but if you're putting in positional bets well before the off and not chopping and changing around, then all these outages at critical moments are not all that upsetting. But I do agree that BF seem to have overreached technically and we are all seeing the disasterous results of this extremely poor management performance. As someone said it must be driving their shareholders mad more than anything else. |
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Tobermory
Maybe my point, or question, should have been more along the lines of: If you were able to price events well and had a super efficient bot, would you prefer to be a consistent mkt. maker or a price taker ? Would you expect to be more profitable doing one or the other ? Surely successful people like Aye Robot, Contrarian, Compound Magic are substantially more on the making than the taking side.? It's a question btw. I don't personally " know ". |
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Bots that use logit models or other models to predict probabilities by fitting data will most likely be opportunistic rather than market-making. The aim being to identify market inefficiencies as they manifest themselves and automate the process that takes advantage of them.
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As the IRA used to tell the British authorities.
We only have to get 'lucky' once. You have to be 'lucky' every single time. That's the same for the backer with regards to the layer. Much easier to hunt out the value in someone elses prices than price up markets and never offer value. Infact the latter is all but impossible. Fortunately for the bookies and the layers on here there's enough mug/fun money about in most markets, to more than make up for any value given away. |
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So who are the mkt makers then ?
Somebody must finding it to be more profitable to be a price maker than a taker ? |
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Did you even read FLLs post. The answer is contained in both his post and yours.
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i have nothing, when I lose, i wake up the next day and start again
when you lose.. you will lose everything who said thaT?  |
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Oh I think I can read mate.
The point is what I am reading says nothing of import. But I suppose if you ask a stupid question you get stupid answers, particularly from you. |
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So let's all go to bed saying " long live the mugs" and be content at that ?
No more thought or analysis involved. Sounds good to me. |
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What exactly are you struggling with?
Fun money feeds the layers. The layers lay the fun money. You can beat the layers by picking off when they make mistakes, especially as they're often automated. Just another thread where you ask embarrassingly trivial questions then ignore what people have to say or change direction because they don't fit whatever you thought was going to be said. |
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Not directed at you Mansini of course.
Your posts are always welcome, if not always meaningful ( depending on where they lie in relation to opening hours ). |
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Betfair layers don't have the luxury of banning winning punters.
Therefore they will be keen to balance their books. A balanced book isn't always a value driven one. People who exclusively take prices will take the value in those books. Of course, most will do both and there will be a grey area, something I know you have difficulty with, but there you go. |
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My questions are only embarassingly trivial to certain know it alls like you.
Strange though how you don't seem to make large amounts of money from your astounding knowledge and expertise. Of course you're quite happy with the amounts you do make so why bother to try to make more just for the sake of it. I understand completely. I happen to believe that the real money in gambling is " probably " made by making things happen price wise rather than passively waitnig for them to happen. That's called mkt. making in my book. Maybe I'm wrong on this. But certainly nothing you or others have said on here makes it crystal clear if and why I'm wrong. |
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Btw this also seems to be another thread where you sarcastically snipe and then usually cowardly run away when asked to put up or shut up.
God you seem to beone unhappy person with your apparent lot in life. |
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The real money would be in getting a bookies license and laying 5/6 each of two all day long.
Betfair doesn't afford you that opportunity. There's a guy in the snooker match markets who puts up 100k each at the correct price between frames. Not only is he accurate to under 1% on what the price should be, but he gets his money first in the queue and occupies the entire market. In his instance you can't pick him off and he takes all the money on offer, so he's better off being the market maker. Between frames though, his model isn't so hot, or he's scared of fast pictures. At that point you can pick off the other market makers as they're mainly punters guessing. The big punter isn't interested in picking off their small money, he just waits for the end of the frame. Opportunities for all. Long live the mugs. |
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I've put up with your begging for scraps for a long time, your insults and everything else included. I've given you more than enough to start winning at gambling and you continue to insult me.
That is fine by me, nobody likes people who are to the point. However when you ignore one of the best posts you'll see by a player such as FLL and continue as if he hadn't made the effort, I feel compelled to help stick up for him. Not that he can't stick up for himself, but he's too polite. If you listened more and posted less, you'd learn to win at this game, but you just keep ignoring what those who know what they are doing are telling you and it's disgusting to see your lack of appreciation. I guess that when you spend all day at the yacht club you can afford to treat people that way, but your coffee will always have spit in it and your beer probably worse. |
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FAFH...it depends on the market. If you take the correct score market which is priced by up by big hitters (mebbe IG or the Swedish Betting Promotions crew) I assume it's priced up using computerised mathematical models that derive the info from the match odds and goal expectancy mkts to price it up very accurately based on years of experience. The spread on the bid and offer represents their margin and in that instance that is how they profit.
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Lori Joined 21 Feb 11 21:08
Just another thread where you ask embarrassingly trivial questions then ignore what people have to say or change direction because they don't fit whatever you thought was going to be said. This |
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Oh really Lori.
You're a small man with a small mind. Nothing in your post indicates otherwise. I admit freely that I ask general " trivial" questions because I have the luxury of being able to afford to do it. I'm not embarassed or worried at all if people think I'm stupid or naive. In fact I would enjoy a very private joke at that observation. You on the other hand seem to want people to think you have nothing to learn from anybody on here. I also find that one tends to learn a lot more by admitting or perhaps even pretending that one knows nothing at all to start with. It's quite amazing how people will then get the confidence to say things that they thought you knew, but actually didn't know. Btw for accuracy sake, I didn't ignore or dismiss FLL's post. I just didn't think it was the be all end all of the.matter. As far as it being one of the best posts I'll ever see, now that is a worry. Most persons on here don't really know or understand how the real pros are making what they make. They understand the principles of it all but not the real mechanics. By asking trivial questions, sometimes just to get things moving in the right direction, is a very good way to try to flesh out some of these details. Your answer on the snooker mkts was, for example, extremely interesting. Clydebank's last post was useful to know ( though probably a lot of us knew about IG and the Swedes all ready). Bottom line Lori , I don't respect you as a person ( based admittedly on the somewhat incomplete profile presented by your forum rresponses ) and so I don't give a rat's arse what you think of me, and I accept that you will probably respond vice versa. That's fine by me. To carry on with the thread now, if I have your permission of course. I find the concept of mkt. making most difficult to understand from the money mgt. side of things. You never know in advance how much of your price offers are going to be taken up. If you want to move on to other things, it's very difficult having open ended undefined potential liabilities lying around for longish periods. How to know how to cope with that would be interesting to have some ideas about. |
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Most people winning on here will be putting up bets rather than taking. I also offer more than I take. Of course I expect to make a profit in the long term on the bets I take, as well as the ones I put up.
Part of the advantage of taking bets though, lies in being first in the queue on the other side. So if the current odds are 1.15-1.16 and you make the fair odds 1.15, and time decay causes the odds to shorten when no significant event occurs, you will make money in the long term, provided you get more matched than what you are taking. (still getting matched at 1.15 when the fair odds have dropped below this due to time decay). In some cases the fair odds might be 1.12 or 1.1 while it's still possible to back at 1.15, in that case you will expect to make a profit no matter how you get matched, as long as you get something matched. |
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Agree there is no inherent advantage whatever to being a Market Maker.
Anyone can be one; there are always dozens of markets on here at any one time with no money matched and no money on the board (other than what is waiting at 1.01) But if you can't price up well then you will either get nothing matched or your money will be taken quickly by the people who can price up. |
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Yeah but just because you can price up well doesn't mean you are going to win.
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Tober
I've always got the feeling on here that if you're not a mkt. maker then you're not really a big hitter. You're more like a little dog laying on its back waiting for it's tummy to be tickled. Nice to know that I may therefore be wrong in my feeling about all this, as I 100 % only take prices at the moment. And as I'm tending to win more than I lose I, therefore always have perennial, subliminal doubts that it is all temporary because of my apparent price passiveness. |
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It does mean you will win Jimmy.
Frog, is this just about people who bet in very large amounts? It doesn't necessarily make them any better. I remember the Rugby Market Maker who made the Price for the draw a few years ago .He was certainly a big hitter, putting up thousands at prices of 50+ , so his liabilty was always 100k+ . Unfortunately he was a big hitter who had no clue about value or making a book by evaluating probablities . There was a great thread on the Rugby Forum (sadly lost in the upgrade) on the one game where it all went wrong for him . Loss was 500K from what i recall of it. The only thing that matters is knowing what the prices ought to be .Like The Snooker Guy that Lori mentions, no doubt his abilty to price up snooker was what got him the bank he plays with now. |
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I disagree. There are countless examples of so called good pricing every day getting turned over.
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Such as?
Of course you won't win every bet, and might be losing after 100 bets . But over time you will win. |
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If you can price up well in the long run and thus know what prices to back or lay of course being able to price up well will be profitable long term.
Being first or near first in the queue is an important factor in some strategies, especially liquid markets, and evidently putting prices up as markets are discovered is likely a prerequisite to such strategies being profitable. Both market-making strategies and strategies that involve taking prices can be very profitable in the long run. "Big hitters" don't fall into one category to the exclusion of the other. |
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Price taking can often be more profitable than offering. Derivative markets where there is a delay in reaction to the change in fundamental being an obvious one. Pushing smaller market makers off a marginal price to corner the market is another.
Lori, the snooker market maker is an interesting one. He/she is relatively new on the scene and has a very distinctive style. I often take my fill as my model doesn't always match and often allows me to close fairly big positions. Incidentally, it is the last market in the world I would be market making like this to tiny margins for such big amounts. |