1% per day compound trading

Comedy gold. Obviously the boy Gomez who covered every blade of grass, running the defence ragged, scoring the winner in injury time was not the Gomez I was talking about - he's in intensive care in a Swiss clinic. I swear the Bayern website itself had him in a coffin.

Trade 9- Inter v Bayern
                 To score Mario Gomez
                 Layed average 3.27 for £11.07 liability
                 Backed at 3.35 for £4.76
                 Trade profit:  +11p (due to unavoidable uneven green)
                 Running p/l : +11.8% (though I have actually won 2p more - I will update results properly maybe after next one)

This 'To Score' market wasn't liquid- and if it had liquidity, these sort of markets would be more vulnerable than most to insider trading, alongside 'next manager', 'sack race' type markets. Peaked at 3.5, went off at 3.15 i think.  Don't listen to any of my posts ever again- the obviously insane ramblings of an idiot - but I am determined to win that 15 quid. I may buy a toaster from Asda. Hi MissingRib- did you get lucky tonight?

Trade 10: zenit v young boys
                 0-0
                 Back @ 23.0 for £11.18 (matched)
                 Sell target 19.0

Zenit are effectively still in pre season, and whilst an excellent side, they are not a last 8 champions league quality side. Young boys will accept 0-0, indeed it may be their plan A. At this level, it's hard to justify 23.0 on 0-0. Indeed, I'd have thought 16.0 was generous.

Sold at 21.0 for £1.01 or £1.10 profit. Still think it may go off sub 20.0, but happy enough with trade

So much for the 1%/day - that's 10% 0n that last trade. Keep it going Uncle.
I'm gonna have a crack at this.Back QPR away to Middlesborough @2.8. Target lay price 2.65-2.7

Trade10: zenit v young boys
                0-0
                Back@23.0 for £11.18
                Sell@ 21.0 for £12.19
                Trade profit: £1.01
                Bank : £12.19
                Running % p/l:  +21.9%

Feel free to post your results Chris/- qpr looks very possible.

I must say that there is greater risks at a high price (23s), and I may not have caught the 5% stop if it had moved very quickly against me- but to be fair the betting was very pedestrian whilst I was involved. It reached 19.5 soon after i sold at 21.0, so I am possibly not allowing winners to run enough.

Trade 11: sell kilmarnock @ 1.78 for £12.19 liability
                 Target: 1.92

In Scotland, outwith the old firm, you cannot trust any  team to beat another. For killie to be odds on, especially at 1.78, is a buyers' nightmare. Killie were defeated 5-0 last week by a quite frankly rubbish Aberdeen side, and they have lost form in the last few games. St mirren on the other hand, whilst also rubbish, have found some decent form and are pulling clear of relegation.
Outwith the old firm, the spl is about blood and snotters- being able to run is about as technical as these teams get. For a team as poor as killie to be rated 1.78 is wrong- if they were 2.0 I wouldn't have raised an eyebrow. Indeed, if hearts were playing Hamilton at home, I wouldn't rate them as low as 1.78.
I would max the credit card, and perhaps empty the kids piggy bank for this.

Excellent thread Uncle Ho and im glad to see that you are making excellent bet choices.

Looking at tomorrows bets i would have the following bets as slightly over/ under priced:

Hearts- Buy at 2.3
Newcastle- Buy at 2.12
Milwall- Sell at 2.56
Southampton- Sell at 1.41

I also feel that Aldershot at 2.38 is a strong outright bet.

Will update tomorrow to see if have fallen at the first hurdle!!

I would max the credit card, and perhaps empty the kids piggy bank for this

Hehe, nice write up uncle. One thing I don't get though, is if Killie are wrong at 1.78 (and I have no opinion either way) then why are they 1.78? You may well be right, and everyone else is wrong, but if all the 'wrong' bettors have more money than you then they will hold the price where it is and you won't get the drift even though you may be right. How can you factor that into this type of betting?

So really I'm asking why you expect a drift? Do you think more sensible bettors will turn up who share your opinion, but more importantly they will have more money than the backers who are 'wrong'?

Just to elaborate on that, Jock is a Killie supporter and he won the lottery last week. He's not that bright, and he wants to back his team for extra excitement, and he knocks the price into 1.5. Unless you and other value layers have more money than him, you won't move the price out.

You can't beat him (take his money) by trading out at a loss pre kick off, the only way you will beat him is by letting your bets ride.

It's very true what you say- if backers are determined enough I will face a loss. I believe 1.78 is tacked onto the high street bookies odds- 1.78 is just marginally better than most bookies. However, William hills for example offer 1.75 which is better after commission than betfair. However, the true rated price by odds compilers will probably be higher than 1.78, after their overround is taken into account.
That apart, the scenarios you describe are the risk I must take- but I feel the subtle nuances of the spl may not be as apparent to for example English people as us sweaty socks.
Most spl games are a lottery, but momentum is gathering slightly towards St mirren- their 1-0 victory at Motherwell was a massive confidence boost for them. Teams like hibs, killie, Aberdeen should never be taken at odds  on IMO. They are just too inconsistent- so 1.78 represents a price to me that is poor value for the backer long term. In the short term, I hope layers 'will see sense' and take this price for a walk. But as you say, Market forces could prevent this. And that's the rub, the gamble inherent in every trade. The key for me is to stop loss religiously and try let the winners run a bit more- long term if my strike rate is good, I should win.
I'm not kidding myself on though- I see almost £2000 wanted to be laid in this tiny  Market at 1.77- he will find it very difficult to find someone to take him on. With £10 trades it's easier- putting thousands on at a time would decimate the % profits using my method. Thanks for writing- I'm amazed now you can see the figures how quiet the forum actually is- I thought thousands were reading it previously .

Two more points-
I'm not predicting killie lay, just that the price  may be wrong and the Market may correct it.
And i can never let my bank run in play. If it was 5% of my bank I might consider it, but I would lose the whole bank roll if I allowed it all to run in play eventually. That's an indisputable fact. I would imagine pro traders' biggest fears are betfair having an outage whilst they are heavily committed in numerous trades. Though I'm sure they have every angle covered. Lucky B##**•%ds!

Matched at 1.82

Should touch around 1.90 before kick-off I reckon, odds have drifted with bookmakers also, (best priced 1.84 with 188bet currentley. Liquidity is rather terrible of Scottish football though there's more matched in games from the Greek and Turkish leagues for example.

Trade 11: back barca at 1.4

They are missing key players, but I think barca backers will pull this in. Barca have been kind to backers over the season

Sold barca 1.38

Uncle sat morning post the pro backers the kilmarnock road sweepers would find more money in the streets than was traded in that game G/Luck

Never a truer word said sevey, though Kilmarnock is pretty deprived..

Trade 11: Sell Kilmarnock @1.78 for £12.19 liabilty
          Buy Kilmarnock @ 1.82 for 32p profit
          Bank: £12.51
          Bank %: +25.1%

Trade 12: Back Barca @1.4 for £12.19
          Sell Barca @1.38 for 17p profit
          Bank £12.68
          Bank %: +26.8%

Killie traded I believe at 1.91/1.92, and I saw barca hit 1.35/1.36.

Trade 13: Arsenal v Birmingham
           0-0
           Back 0-0 at 14.5 for £12.53 (not full account by mistake)
           Sell target: 12.5

14.5 way too high for cup final featuring a highly motivated Birmingham. The price will fall as volume increases.

Another potentially dangerous one here as people always think that Arsenal love to score goals. I'll be impressed if it gets down to 12.5, but I think the Ars back price would have to get up to around 1.57-1.6 for it to hit this target.

Hi UA- keeping a close eye on this- still confident though

Sold at 14.0. For 40p/43p profit- UA can't ignore ur post after the last one so safety first- 0-0 very poss what with the safety net of extra time, though the wide open spaces of wembley will suit arsenal.

Trade 14: back rangers @1.29
                 Sell target 1.24

Im astonished by this price- this is excellent value considering the circumstances. Caution advised though as not long to kick off.

Sold at 1.3 for 10p/11p loss . Gotten himmel!!!

Trade 14: back Stoke at 1.97
                 Sell target: 1.88

Hello there Uncle ho, was out all afternoon so wondering where the 0-0 finished up just before the off. Hope it didn't come in after you traded out.

Good luck with the Stoke one can't decide what's going to happen with that one at the moment.

Hi UA- it went lowest 13.5 and went off 14/14.5. Sold at 14.

Trade 13: Arsenal v Birmingham
           0-0
           Back 0-0 at 14.5 for £12.53
           Sell 0-0 at 14.0 for£12.98
           Profit on trade: 43p
         
Trade 14: back rangers @1.29 for £12.70
                  sell @ 1.30 for £12.59
                  Loss on trade: 10p

Loss is only 10p instead of 11p

    1.29    12.70    Back    27-Feb-11 14:24    3.68
Rangers    1.30    12.59    Lay    27-Feb-11 14:58    -3.78
*Average odds: On  Off    Back subtotal:    3.68
Lay subtotal:    -3.78
Market subtotal:    -0.10
Commission :    0.00
Net Market Total:    -0.10

So after 14 trades:
Bank: £13.03
Bank %: +30.3%

Trade 15: Back  Stoke at 1.97

Sold at 1.93- may go in again if it reaches 2.02

Trade 15: back stoke at 1.97
                  Sell Stoke at 1.93
                  Profit on trade: 25p
                  Bank%: +32.8%

Stoke actually drifted back to 1.99 when I looked after hitting 1.93, so I thought 2.02 was possible- wasn't to be and it's still around 1.93 now.
I must confess I like stoke's style of play- more than barca, arsenal etc. I think they could possibly get third place in spl though hearts fans may beg to differ.

excellent thread Uncle

what percentage of your decisions are based on your belief the outcome will occur rather than the price movement you expect?

Its a difficult one Patented. I think it is all about the price movement, though the bet has to be plausible.I believe any outcome is possible in a match no matter what price, and any trades I post are not tips about a winner. I try visualise what an unbiased punter would think leading up to kick off (if there is such a thing) about a price on offer. The next trade is explainable like this:

Trade 16
Celtic v Rangers
Back draw @3.6 for £13.28

Again, like trade 5, the market is faced with with an uncallable match. I think Celtic are too low and Rangers too high. The draw is too high also. Both teams are looking for redemption- celtic after their defeat at Motherwell, and Rangers for their pummelling in the last old firm game.
Rangers wont play as badly as they did in the last old firm match, and Celtic wont play as well.
Momentum is slightly with Rangers but Celtic have a slightly better team.
Both teams will be the most motivated 22 players in world football for 90 minutes.
Defeat for either side will be wretched.  Extra time and pens is possible... The favourite has won only 1 out of the last 4 old firm games.......

All these are true and it all lends to a hedging mentality in the market. God help anyone picking a winner here. Last game at Celtic Park, price on draw fell from 3.6 to 3.2 before kick off. Its reasonable to expect the same again.  Little downside , fair upside.

thanks for the detailed answer uncle - it makes a lot of sense... i wish you the best of luck and will follow the thread with interest...

Yeah it makes for interesting reading this thread, always intriguing to see people's approach to trading. Notice Stoke traded at 1.89 last night pre-kick off, although you got a nice profit regardless and I think you got out at the right time despite the odds dropping further (which was probably largely influences by the WBA team news).

Like the look of your next trade also, as you said looks like a trade with very little downside.

I like the cut of your jib Uncle Ho.

Very Good Reading And Going Along Nicely All The Best Uncle

cheers sevey- celtic draw has actually drifted slightly but hope fully will come in closer to kick off

You could probably get out at 3.55 in the next few minutes no bother. I'm not too interested in the Scottish cup myself, i'm surprised at how little money there has been in the market so far,relatively speaking,i'm sure it will pick up over the next half an hour.
Have you thought about the outages the site does experience every so often?. Potential for 100% bank loss if you keep using 100% each time. I know its only a small sum but would be a shame to decimate the project, if you know what i mean!.  Anyway, all the best.

Trade 16
Celtic v Rangers
Back draw @3.6 for £13.28
Sell @ 3.7 for £12.92
Loss of 36p
Running p/l: +29.2%

In all 16 trades so far I was most confident about this, and I got it woefully wrong. It drifted to 3.8 which was my stop loss (but weight of money was always with the buyers so I didn't sell), then fell to 3.45. My sell was dialled in at 3.4 and i missed out. I took 3.7 just at kick off.
What a game though. Like Rollerball meets Gladiator.
Thats 3 losses in 16 and this one was quite painful. I now need 'bouncebackability' .

Yes outages- I've thought about it and a way to guard against it would be to have an equal amount of money in be@@ax, or accounts with other internet bookies. This requires capital though, but I'd have thought an insurance like that would be worth it (especially with the state betfair is in)

Don't be too disheartened Uncle. After all, the price DID move in the direction you predicted,
and if your sell had been 0.05 higher, you'd have made a 1.5 point profit. Carry on the good work

Cheers Chris.

Trade 17: Arsenal v Sunderland
                  Back Arsenal @ 1.48 for £12.90 liability

Two games will interest favourite backers on Saturday - Arsenal and Man City. They will feature prominently on accumulators and with good reason- both should win.
City are around 1.4 and Arsenal 1.47 so returns on Arsenal are currently 17.5% higher. Wigan are terrible, and punters may rate Sunderland a superior side to Wigan, but I have my doubts.

Sunderland lost 3 times in their opening 18 games- they have now lost their last 4. Since Darren Bent left the psychology of Sunderland seems to be 'we're safe from relegation, we'll build from the next transfer window'. The first game after Bent left apart (a highly motivated showing), they seem to have collectively downed tools. The worst form team in the league.

Wigan have lost only 3 times in their last ten. Their last away game was a draw at Anfield against a resurgent Liverpool. They find themselves in trouble because they have drawn more than double the amount they have won. However they are capable of getting a draw if city aren't 100%. Should be highly motivated from relegation struggle.

Arsenal for me are a better side than City, and are playing a worse side than City's opponents. Arsenal will move to within a point of Man Utd if they win, and they should receive heavy backing come Saturday.

Arsenal are 17.5% higher than City and this could be wrong. Expect to see the gap close between them to less than 7 ticks, and  Arsenal shortening, possibly breaching 1.43. So expect 1.68. I wouldn't advise betting any less than £10,000 on this- and i firmly believe being paid to have your hands cut off then sewn back in medical experiments would be the most prudent way to raise the money in time.

Oooh Uncle Ho be careful, i know it's a bit late saying this as the price has already drifted, but Sunderland are not a worse team than Wigan.

That will be what the majority of people think, especially when they look at the league table. They will also remember that Sunderland beat Chelsea away from home, but the biggest problem with Arsenal hitting that price is that they will have no Fabregas nor Van Persie (their 2 best players) and they have an absolutely huuuge game against Barca on Tuesday.

I hope you know what you are doing. Good luck.

Crikey- a warning from UA- doesn't bode well. I haven't managed to monitor this earlier today- it looks as if it hit 1.59 or 1.6, which was way beyond my stop loss. I first saw it at 1.54, which i was shocked at and right on my stop loss- but weight of money said dont sell. This casts doubts on the whole thread IMO. It looks as if i need to use a bot to stop loss this when I can't access betfair due to work. I may reconsider the whole thread as I don't know if i can monitor it effectively. I'm not bothered about losing- it would make for a more interesting thread- but I think if I can't take the 5% stop then it won't work- it is a certainty a price will eventually gallop away from me leading to a 20 to 30% loss, which is unacceptable. What do u think guys? Feels fraudulent missing the stop, even if it came back in.

Hello there Uncle Ho. Personally I don't think you need a stop loss. There's nothing wrong with letting something go past a certain price in my humble opinion. You don't have a stop win position so why have a stop loss. The important thing is what you think the price is going to do and then trade from that.

When Arsenal hit 1.58 the important thing is do you think they are going to drift further or come back in. Then make a decision from that. Good move to leave it, 1.58 for Arsenal at home is pretty high, especially with home advantage for a big team.

For what it's worth Arsenal were about 1.22 last year when they played Sunderland. I think they will end up at somewhere between 1.45 and 1.5 but that is a complete guess.

Whatever you do don't go on my opinion. It's your thread and your rules so it's your opinion. That's what the readers want to read.

Good luck and don't give up.

Evening Uncle plus the fact Sunderland has became an Arb 8/1 with 1 firm so the outside traders are laying the 15/2 which could make a small dent in the Arsenal price think they will go off at 1.49/50 G/luck

Arsenal now 1.45. No way they were going to be 1.6ish at KO. Nice trade Uncle! Agree with UA, no point in applying a stop loss early when it doesn't feel right.

Sold 1.45. Phew! That trade was like giving birth to twins- or even worse- having man flu. Full reflection to follow.

Trade 17: Arsenal v Sunderland
                  Back Arsenal @ 1.48 for £12.90 liability
                  Sell Arsenal @ 1.45 for £13.17
                  Profit 25p
                  Running %: +31.7%

This trade exposed the problems in my method. I suppose it really is a 24/7 job this unless using a bot. I welcome discussion about stop losses. I am of the opinion that stop losses are essential. I've attended RBS shareholder meetings and met for myself investors who bought shares at £4 and watched them fall to 10p. They sit at around 44p now but have been diluted by open share offers. The moral is that they could have sold at any point for a fraction of the loss, but held on grimly, determined to ride it out. Most of these investors were pensioners who had just lost 90% of their pensions. A stop loss would have saved them from catastrophe.

And so it is on Betfair. If I don't use a stop loss (at some point), I will eventually lose months worth of profits surely? The only protection I can see is the lack of volatility (compared to a stock market crash). A 1.6 back, drifting to 2.6 (an extreme case) would wipe around 60% of my account, a 1.3 to 1.8 about 27%, and 20.0 out to 32.0 would wipe approx 37%.  I can see all the above scenarios taking place at some point, given time.

However there is an argument for saying a 5% stop is too tight, and the market will eventually correct itself, providing better profits in the long term, over using ,say, a bot driven 5% stop.

I don't know but I do believe some stop has to be in place. Perhaps a half stop, at 5% and the other half at 12%. Any thoughts anyone?

Anyway, my recent trades have felt a bit shakey, but trade 18 is a real embezzle at work job. Its one for the mavericks, the loose cannons. I for one will be going tonto, up to the value of just over £13 for:

Trade 18

Barcelona v Arsenal
Lay Barca @ 1.3 for £13.17 liabilty.


Yes, Arsenal have injury problems, had very bad results in 2 out of their last 3 games, and their style probably plays into Barca's hands (though Arsenal may be fitter), but the market at high volume will not set a team Arsenal is playing off at 1.2 something. This price will not compute with punters.

I am amazed by this price and expect a good drift.

The problem on here is that if your opening bet of the trade is good value (or otherwise you wouldn't be doing it obviously), then the stop loss is likely to be a bet that is value to the person taking the opposite side of your stop loss bet. The problem, imo, is that you are betting 1005 of the bank, rather than the stop loss. Obviously stop losses are of value from a money management perspective. Both sides of the trade ( and indeed the closing out part of the trade) should be looked at simply with the question is it value to me or the other punter, or the "exact fair price". all the best.

Hello there Uncle Ho. You say tht you will surely lose months worth of trading at some point. You should have the same approach to profits and losses.

You seem fixated by the inevitability of losing 50% of your fund at some point without entertaining the idea of say winning 50% of your fund in one trade. This should be just if not more likely.

You are playing with a very small fund (as it is just a bit of fun). If you want to be serious about not losing a large amount and bring in serious rules for this then shouldn't you bring in the same serious rules about staking. Would it be normal to stake 100% of your fund on each trade if you had a large fund?

Looks like some good team news for your trade with sicknote Van Persie named in the squad and Fabregas deemed "90% likely to be fit". I laid at 1.30 and just got a back matched at 1.34 and i'm all green now, although wouldn't be suprised if the odds drifted further.

Same here letsalldance- out at 1.34.
Laid Dundee utd @ 2.06.
wily Craig brown's Aberdeen well capable here of getting something- think Market will correct united price. Sorry for quick post

Trade 18

Barcelona v Arsenal
Lay Barca @ 1.3 for £13.17 liability
Back Barca @1.34 for profit £14.48
Profit on trade: +£1.24
Running %: +44.1%

Interesting trade this. Team news obviously played its part, but since fallen back. I still can't believe the odds but Barca are the darlings of the favourite backers. IMO no team should be near 1.3 playing any champions league EPL side. Looking forward to the match.

Trade 19

Lay Dundee United @ 2.06 for £12.42
Back Dundee United @ 2.0 for £12.79
Loss on trade: -38p
Running %:  +40.3%

Unite went off at 2.0, the same price found in numerous bookies, so started basically as a 5% worse price on Betfair. Then again, Dundee Utd won so backers won't be too despondent I'm sure.

Regarding staking- I must admit I don't feel any sense of over-staking here as long as a stop loss is used. In my mind it is a trade for 5% of my account, not 100%. I do agree that when using higher stakes, diversification would be necessary- however it is difficult to find a lot of markets (for me). More concurrent trades would also give more flexibility I'm sure, and protect against having 'all your eggs in one basket'. So no, this style of trading wouldn't be normal with higher stakes.

As for recognising the value in both sides of the trade, I think its easier to do this when you are winning the trade - the price movements confirm your convictions. When it goes against you, you are probably still going to believe it's value (excluding team news etc), more so than when you backed or laid at a worse price earlier. If this was the criteria it's possible you might never stop loss.

Lets face it- there's more than one way to skin a cat, and plenty of different stops and staking plans work. For continuity purposes I'll continue to stop at around 5%, but it may run away when not being monitored, or I may allow it a little more breathing space if I feel very strongly about a position. 40% up after 19 trades is better than I thought (I suspect I may have a downturn soon).

I must say posting on a thread is pretty positive so far - it does help decision making- and the feedback is very helpful. I'd be very interested to read a thread started by any of the contributors on trading with a different method of staking and stopping.

Trade 20:

Barca v Arsenal
Correct score 0-1
Back@40.0 for £12.70

I am hoping the in play traders will pull this in just before kick off as it is a fabulous price for trading in play. Both 0-0 and 0-1 will be positive for this trade in play, so hopefully it will be snapped up. Caution advised though.

Sold at 40.0 for zero profit or loss- straight after it fell to 34.0 so missed out on large profit after going against my own advice. Comment to follow hopefully tonight.

Trade 21:

Everton v Birmingham
Back draw@ 4.2
Sell target; 3.8

If I had to choose 2 teams from the epl that have the best chance of producing a draw, I would choose these two- though Birmingham at home would be much better.
Everton at 1.5 something...... Can they really be relied upon ever to stick to the script? Beat Chelsea away, lose at home next round etc- I personally would never back everton at odds as low as these against anyone in the epl (with the exception of Blackpool). Expect birmingham to revert to Scotland/ rangers style defensive approach as they start battle against relegation. I expect low scoring trench warfare - not one for the purists.

The draw will not hit 3.8 before the game kicks off. I'll be impressed if it gets below 4.  Just my opinion mind...

UA- my trade last night has actually converted me to the idea of staking under full bank. (just after defending this method!). It was the horror story of getting it wrong by even 3 ticks which made me sell- just before the price crashed I had endured an afternoon of drifting menace. If I hadn't been so committed I have no doubt I would have allowed it to run up to kick off. As for tonight- I remain cautiously optimistic

There always seems to be a lot of Everton love in the market, they always seem to go off at around the 1.50-1.60 mark at home if they are not playing one of the top five or six sides. Despite their mixed bag this season. Think they will win tonight Birmingham have Ferguson missing, all their play goes through him and they looked lost without him against West Brom.

Hello there Uncle Ho. The reason for your concern is because of the nature of the prices and tick increments when you place a bet.

What I mean is that if you place a back bet at a price of 40, if it drifts 1 tick and you have to trade out at 42, you will suffer a 47 pence loss for a £10 bet.

If you place the same back bet at 2.5 and it drifts out 1 tick then you will only suffer a 8 pence loss when you trade out.

Summary - some prices are riskier to trade at than others.

Trade 21:
Everton v Birmingham
Back draw @4.2
Sell draw @4.2

A very non volatile Market with tight price ranges. Best price for trade was 4.1, but never threatened 4.0. Drifted to 4.4. In the end felt fortunate to be out evens. Spot on guys. Superb calls once again. Very talented. I mentally called the prices wrong- I thought Everton were too short, but 1.5-1.6 it was, as mentioned by yourself.
No wins in three- can this be classified as a blip or a sign off impending doom?
As regards odds and risk- I totally agree. I do need to master odds and percentages- I think I should build a spreadsheet showing relationships between prices and ticks. Sounds exciting I know, but should help managing risk and reward. Is this the western world's worst job for £2 per week?

Has the world gone collectively mad? Is there a virus infecting the brains of the uk's keenest sports bettors?
Trade 22:
Psv v rangers
Back under 2.5 goals at 1.91

Rangers have re-written the laws of football- their special brand of anti- football (messi) with 5 at the back, 4 pressing the midfield and the striker tracking back is designed first and foremost to achieve a 0-0 scoreline. Think man utd v rangers at old Trafford. I would be amazed if 3 goals hit tonight, and at 1.91 it is very possible closer to kick off the Market will pull this in. Yes Dutch teams in general score bucket load of goals, but psv won't have played against a team like this all season.

Sorry if this has already been covered but what happens if you back at a value price but the market doesn't eventually trend towards it? It usually will but not always. Do you lay it off even though it was a good price?

Hi Rocket- Yes I do. Copenhagen v Chelsea is an example of this. As it drifted (from 1.78 to 2.0) in theory it was better value all the time, but I do believe in stop losses, and will take the loss no matter what. It seems counter intuitive but it is common practice in the financial sector for example. Not taking the losses for me is just one step from letting losing trades run in play to try win - something which I am not prepared to do under any circumstances

overs in the twente game look a big price

Oh bollocks!! There may be a winning system here by doing the opposite to me. This one especially annoying.

Yes shocking wasn't it. If u don't mind me asking, what percentage of your bank did you trade with?

Sold Kiev at 2.6. Is the Market really going to fancy a bet on Kiev at this price? Probably now I'm on it.

Couldn't believe the price on unders for the Rangers match I was thinking more around 1.80 - 1.85. Massive value bet that was tonight.

Trade 22:
Psv v rangers
Back under 2.5 goals at 1.91
Sell under 2.5 goals at 1.97
Trade loss of  -42p
Running P/L: +36.1%

Trade 23:

Lay Dinamo Kiev @ 2.6
Buy Kiev @ 2.66
Trade profit of 18p
Running p/l:  +37.9%
Bank: £13.79

This was one I had been watching for a day - I had expected a drift earlier but it didn't materialise. For the first time, taking profits early paid off as it went off at 2.56 ( I think). Difficult day. Believe it or not, even though it is only for 20p etc, I've found myself getting really involved in this thread/method- I think I will take a day or two off as there isn't much on anyway. Before I go, this next one is a real 'sell the house and rent it back from the buyer without the wife knowing' job. A 'leverage your next 25 year's income' job. If it loses, it's only 25 years working paying off debts, so no biggy.

Trade 24:
Birmingham v Bolton
Sell Bolton @ 2.68

After commission that is about 2.6. Currently 8 household name bookies are offering better odds on Bolton. William Hill 2.7, Stan James 2.8.
I don't particularly agree with Bolton being favourites either. They are solid, but Birmingham have come alive again and I wouldn't expect them to lose with the momentum they have.  I would dismiss their defeat to West Brom after the cup final as excusable, almost natural, but I think they mean business now until the end of the season.
In Scotland, we always regarded Alex McLeish as a 'lucky manager', (no insult intended) and I do feel he could do a job for any club. He always seems to move clubs at the right time, before the tide turns against him, at Motherwell, Hibs, Rangers, Scotland...no doubt Birmingham will be next. Birmingham are of interest to scots also as they play the Scotland blueprint employed before Craig Burley, and we also keep an eye on Barry Passback.

Hello there Uncle Ho.

I had my eye on the Man City game and I think that Kiev were about 2.56 with about half an hour to go, but 2.64 with about 1 min to go before kick-off.

Anyway have you ever considered for games quite far in advance, say over 24 or 36 hours, just putting on half of your stake at the price you want to put it on at and then offer up the other half at say 2 or 3 ticks lower.

If your second stake doesn't get matched then you know that you got your half on pretty much at the optimal price. If it does get matched then you've got your bet on at an even better average price than you wanted. Just thought i'd throw that in there for your consideration.

Good luck

I do hope you traded out early on this one Uncle Ho.

No didn't trade out early UA.  Opened the laptop at about 30 mins before kick off for the first time in 36 hours and found the trade had gone horribly against me - and had been a lot worse. I agree with you about staggering stakes (and stops) and it would have helped. Do you do this all the time or is there a set of circumstances when you feel it's best employed?

Trade 24
Birmingham v Bolton
Sell Bolton @ 2.68 for £13.74
Back Bolton @ 2.46 for£13.01
Trade loss of: -71p
Running %: +30.6%
Bank: £13.06

This was a sloppy trade, without the necessary thought and research. IMO my worst so far (not because of the size of the loss). I way over-estimated the effect of superior value on other sites, and compared the teams as if they were playing a league match. Garbage. I had a day off and i'm not bothered about losing more than 5% because of this - it is only pennies after all.

Trade 24 didn't go well. You've sold the house and are renting it back- you might have to spend the next 25 years trying to beat your wife to the  postman- however there is a solution- selling your soul to the devil. Win, you get the house back/lose, you suffer eternal damnation. A risk worth taking IMO when you see the next trade....

Trade 25
Rangers v Kilmarnock
Back Rangers @ 1.34 for £13.03

I don't know how aware people in England are of what is happening in Scotland right now. The Celtic manager so far has been sent live ammunition twice; (by I suspect ahem, Rangers fans) had an attempt to run him and his wife off the road by another car; had a fake bomb sent to Celtic; been beaten unconscious in the street by two later convicted men; lives under 24 hour police protection as does his partner and toddler son (both subject of death threats) as do his parents in Northern Ireland.

So what has this got to do with Rangers v Kilmarnock?

It is unlikely in this extreme climate that Rangers won't win tomorrow. It is totally unacceptable. It would be a Klan lynching for any Killie player who dared score - burning cross in the garden, bed sheets on heads, the lot. I make it 80% home, 15% draw, 5% away and that is being generous to Kilmarnock. The stakes are getting higher every game for Rangers - I make them favourites to win the league- and Killie are no more than SPL fodder who are expected to surrender meekly to the Glasgow giants.

To systemites it looks like a 2nd v 4th clash, but this is not true. Its more like a top 10 EPL v mid England division 1. And Killie are missing their only player who can kick a ball and run in a straight line, Eremenko.
Killie are fighting the weight of history here - more than a hundred years of subservience to the old firm where a win at Ibrox is a generational event. Where the match officials will not be giving the visitors  soft penalties in the 89th minute, (or they better have a fire extinguisher ready) playing a highly resilient motivated Rangers side and a highly partisan crowd.
Look at AC Milan at under 1.2 or Man City at 1.42 (are they motivated or not???) and decide if Rangers are better value. The market will push Rangers to sub 1.3.

Hello there Uncle Ho. There are times when it's good to stagger your stakes, I believe it's when you trade is a bit riskier. What trades are riskier I hear you ask, well ones where you go in early, so the market is quite immature or ones on low liquidity markets. Also it depends on the prices as mentioned before.

For what it's worth, i never look at what other books are offering, i tried that a while back and seemed to find that betfair were pretty much always ahead and the other books would adjust their prices in line with betfair as it got closer to the event start time rather than the other way round.

Another thing that was in your favour for trade 24 which you may or may not have realised is that you layed first and the price was greater than 2.00 which means that you couldn't get as much on, which in turn limited your loss first. If you want to be ultra agressive in your staking, you should always back first when the price is greater than 2.00 and lay first when less than 2.00

Thanks for the feedback UA. Just a quick update on my phone. Traded rangers twice for one tick profit each time, and have now backed barca at 1.48. Will update fully later.

Following this with interest, Uncle Ho. Sorry if it has been covered already but are you religiously not letting a bet go into play? And is there a tool which you could automatically set your stop loss with?

Good thread.

Trade 25
Rangers v Kilmarnock
Back Rangers @ 1.34 for £13.03
Sold Rangers @ 1.32 for £13.22
Profit on trade: 19p
Running %: 32.5%

Trade 26
Rangers v Killie
Back Rangers @ 1.33
Sold @ 1.33
P/l on trade: 0
Running %: 32.5%

Trade 27
Seville v Barca
Back Barca @ 1.38 for £13.06
Sell Barca @ 1.34 for £13.42
p/l on trade: 35p
Running p/l: +37%

Trade 28
Seville v Barca
Back Barca @ 1.35
Sell Barca @ 1.34
p/l on trade: 8p
Running p/l: +37.8%

Rangers reached 1.31 but my lay was dialled for 1.3, and Barca Im not sure but I was fortunate to be at the top end of the price range. UA thanks again for input. I do feel that I haven't fully grasped odds and relationships yet, but doing an excel spread sheet on this is daunting. I may begin just inputting manually if I cant figure out the correct excel expressions. Can anyone help? I want to have all the prices with percentage red or green ups for 1-10 ticks either side. Even a couple of excel formulas to get me going would be gratefully received.

Cheers thebert and sparticus- I have market feeder pro which is very user unfriendly but will easily stop me out at 5%. I don't use it though, as I don't want to leave computer and internet on all day- and it has connection problems from time to time. I don't allow to run in play, but I'm sure there are people on Betfair who make decent profits using such a method- at least one of whom have already posted on this thread. Just out of interest, does anyone think soccer mystic is any good for finding value exit points in-play?

You backed Barca at 1.48 right? As in the post above.

I've been toying with using an odds comparison site and backing/laying where prices are out of line. So say if a team is offered at 3.00 across most of the bookies and also 3.00 on Betfair, I would be inclined to lay in that the correct price would be 3.00 + BF commission. But I feel there are other factors in play as well. I've watched some markets and am a little confused by the price movements on them despite my reasonings.

It is confusing and I would refer you to UA's post earlier on the subject. Backed barca at 1.48 and had posted short post when it was 1.48.

Hello there Uncle Ho.

I can understand why your spreadsheet sounds a little daunting, there sounds like there is a lot you want to do. I'm not necessarily sure it is all totally necessary, as the most important aspect is just to have an understanding and appreciation of prices rather than everything all mapped out.

As such i shall give you a few pointers on what i think it is important to take into consideration.

1) know where the tick increment changes are. You probably should know these already (2,3,4,6,10,20,30...) if not put them down on a spreadsheet until you do.

2) for each of these increments look at what your profit would be if you were to trade 1 tick at the bottom, mid and top range of the increment. What i mean is (for the .01 tick increment) how much would you make if you backed say £10 at 1.1 layed at 1.09, backed at 1.5 and layed at 1.49 and backed at 1.9 and layed at 1.89 etc. Don't worry about doing it from 1 to 10 ticks, if you want to know the answer for 5 ticks you can just multiply your 1 tick answer by 5. Don't worry about doing all the other increments in between this should be enough to help you get the understanding you need.

3) Make sure you do 2) for both Back and Lay.

Finally try to understand the elements of risk involved in trading at tick cusps. e.g. if you back at 3.0 then if the price goes in your favour it only moves in increments of .02 but if it goes the other way it moves in increments of .05.

These are just my pointers to help you for whatever spreadsheets you feel are necessary. Please feel free to use or dismiss as you feel fit.

Perfect- you've saved me hours there. God bless you

Back 0-0 @ 16.0 for £5.60 with more placed at higher odds

In the ahem, bayern game

£6 matched at 16.5 in bayern game. Please note my running % should be 1% less- will update properly at first opportunity.

At end of Trade 27, Running total should have read +36%, so +36.8% is correct running total.

Trade 29
Bayern v Inter
Correct score 0-0
Back @ 16.0 for £5.60
Back @ 16.5 for £6
Sell @16.0 for£11.79
Profit on trade: +18p
Running %: +38.6%

I trailed this for 36 hours watching it drift. In the end it was seconds away from 15.5 which would have been much better. Note staggered backs for first time.

Trade 30
Chelsea v Copenhagen
To score
Lay Torres @2.74 for £9 (my liability)

Sky sports news have just announced he will be a substitute so should safely drift to 5.0 to 7.0. Off course he has to appear for the trade to stand so hopefully he will have 5 mins at end.

Trade 30
Chelsea v Copenhagen
To score
Lay Torres @2.74 for £9 (my liability)/£5.17
Back Torres @ 3.80 for£3.72
Trade profit: +£1.38
Running %: +52.5%
Bank: £15.25

This reached 4.20 i think.

Trade 31
Rangers v psv
Rangers back @ 3.15(partial bank)

If the odds were reversed between PSV and Rangers I would think that was correct.
Rangers' primary objective will be a 1-0 win, followed by 0-0 and winning on penalties. If PSV think that Rangers will open up they are mistaken. They will play a rigid 5-4-1 and look to nick a goal on the counter or from a set piece. If they do score they will no longer look to score or counter attack-they will play the ball into a corner with no one there rather than attempt a thru ball.
I salute Rangers' style of play- it is refreshingly ultra defensive and effective.

Why the market believes PSV are favourites here is probably due to the perception that the dutch league is better than the SPL. This may be so (outwith the old firm) but it misses the major point that Rangers (and Celtic) are a bigger club than PSV in every way, and Rangers and their supporters expect to win this tie. I like PSV but I don't think they will have an answer to the tactical conundrum and guile that Rangers present. Hopefully the market, still smarting from the first leg, will afford Rangers the respect (and price) they deserve.

Followed your Torres trade which was too easy! Great thinking there.

Hello there Uncle Ho. I'm beginning to think your Scottish knowledge is slightly clouding your judgment. Of course that is pretty unfair of me as, as I sit here i can see the Rangers price at 3.45. Very easy of me to comment after a price move.

Just for your records I have had a quick look at this game and can offer you he following information, (again apologies for the lateness but only just looked at it now).

Man City at home this season against Birmingham were 1.45, 4.9 and 9.2 (H,D,A.) Away from home against Birmingham the prices were 4.9, 3.6, 1.9
Man City at home this season against Aston Villa were 1.49, 4.5 8.8 and away they were 3.65, 3.4, 2.26
Tot at home against Newcastle were 1.57, 4.3, 7.2 and away they were 3.35, 3.45 2.38.

From what i recall PSV were trading at around 1.5 at home and dropped to about 1.48 just before kick-off, although this is not a league game so who knows how this may effect things.

Glean from this what you will and good luck.

Yeah unlucky with that Rangers trade unless it dives before kick off. Good luck with the next one though you've done well so far.

I tend to stay away from the Europa League, don't really know enough about the teams.

Trade 31
Rangers v psv
Rangers back @ 3.15(partial bank)
Sell Rangers @ 3.55
Sell PSV @ 2.58
Back PSV @ 2.4
Loss on trade £1.05
Running %: +42%

Well a total dog's breakfast of a trade here. I hope I don't regret selling so soon in the day, but the price movement was just too concerted.

This ran away from me, and yes perhaps I am thinking in terms of what is a value bet rather than a trade. What resource do you use UA if you dont mind me asking for historical betfair oddds? I use Bet Explorer but have concerns about the accuracy off the info, plus it doesn't really show Betfair correctly. I have thought about buying fracsoft type data, or compiling my own data over many months.

Trade 32

West Brom v Arsenal
Back Arsenal @ 1.83 for £14.20

No staggered staking here, as I feel confident about this one. But then again, I did for the last one also.

Hello there

I use myself. I collect all the data myself rather than anything else. I think if you want BF prices you either have to collect it yourself or use fracsoft. If there is a free alternative then i'd happily like to know.

I imagine that betexplorer just uses all the best bookie prices, haven't really looked at it too much. If you want an alternative to that try football-data.co.uk if you haven't used it already. It breaks it down to particular bookmakers and gives it all in excel format as well. It still doesn't include betfair though, but you may find it better.

Arsenal has been around 1.86/1.87 today, but i think it will dive before kick off tomorrow. I have faith!

West Brom games have been priced up shockingly all this year in my opinion. Markets always seems to price up West Brom as if they are comfortable mid-table side and not relegation contenders even when they went on the long unbeaten run.

Nice, nice price on Arsenal here even if they have numerous injuries.

Keep it up Uncle ho. I spent a while on Thursday pricing up the Arsenal game, came up with 1.85. I've layed 1.83 and backed it back at 1.86. Mind you, Chelsea at 1.71 Vs Man City was considerably off the price i came up with, i think its shorter than it should be so have layed the 1.71, hoping to back back at 1.74ish. It has already traded a good bit lower the 1.71, i'll exit the position before kick off whatever happens. Most of the prices this weekend look fair to me, Villa may be the other one of note, had them just above evens when pricing it up, saw someone wanting 1.93 on Thursday, i offered 1.92, didn't get matched, now out to almost evens anyway!. Oh well. GL.

A very interesting thread this one, Uncle.  It closely mirrors a process that I'm trying myself. 

Looking for small trades that will have a compound effect to get me from £10 to £5,000. 

If I can string together 657 of these trades, I'll do it (allowing for commission on each market).  Betting the full bank each time, but only looking for small margins. 

Good luck man.

Hope you haven't given up following a couple of nasty trades, you were going well.