General Betting
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17 Jan 11
20:43
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Date Joined:
24 Apr 08
I was always under the impression that £10k would be enough money to make a living on gambling from but after doing a few calculations I now think you need much more if you are betting pre-event.
Basically the biggest average edge you can assume is 10% so staking 2% (a professional approach with not too much risk) of your £10k bank would mean bets of £200. 40 bets a month is probably a reasonable amount you could expect to have value in whilst making sure you remain selective. Here your turnover would be £96000 per year and profit £9600, £8640 after commission.
Obviously you could be more selective and improve on that 10% (possibly) but your turnover would be significantly less.
This is a lot less than people make in most jobs and it's far from guaranteed either. This just shows how difficult it reallys is with a modest amount of money.
Basically the biggest average edge you can assume is 10% so staking 2% (a professional approach with not too much risk) of your £10k bank would mean bets of £200. 40 bets a month is probably a reasonable amount you could expect to have value in whilst making sure you remain selective. Here your turnover would be £96000 per year and profit £9600, £8640 after commission.
Obviously you could be more selective and improve on that 10% (possibly) but your turnover would be significantly less.
This is a lot less than people make in most jobs and it's far from guaranteed either. This just shows how difficult it reallys is with a modest amount of money.
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Motto on here Scrooge is don't let reality get in the way.
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System working - send more money.
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An extremely naive posting.
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Sounded a bit like one of mine don't you think K ?
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Funds Required for a 'professional gambler'
_________________ Find your own money  |
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Use somebody else's money and share if you win and don't share if you lose.
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In answer to the question , i don't think theres an answer ,it depends on the system , sport etc ... i would say upwards of 5k should get you kick starting your way to a modest income ,enough to ward off the bailiffs anyway [;)]
If that doesn't work, buy a dog  |
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No FAFH, yours are not naive, just inquisitive. Nothing
wrong with that. |
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Not naive, far from it. I am well aware of what's possible from bots, trading etc but for bettors taking prematch positions to let run, it's virtually impossible to do more than 10% whilst maintaining any worthwhile turnover and that is fact.
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No it's not a fact Scrooge.
It's only your opinion, unless you know how everybody goes about their betting. |
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System working - send more money
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Lots of problems with the original post
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FINE AS FROG HAIR
Date Joined: 12 Mar 07 Add contact When: 17 Jan 11 22:56 No it's not a fact Scrooge. It's only your opinion, unless you know how everybody goes about their betting. Funny I'm being doubted by the guy who failed to understand or believe how much bots can make and which was clearly obvious. I suppose when I say fact that is a big claim but by that I mean that a much greater return than 10% is virtually impossible. You ask all the top sports gamblers how much they think is possible even with their huge banks. If you analyse the data from the main sports over a year (ones with enough liquidity to make it worthwhile), the odds aren't out by enough to make more than this. There are only a few thousand records there and so there's not enough potential there. Many won't take a professional approach and will simply overstake on some selections. This may work for a while and will lead people to think they can do better than 10% but if your hoping to turnover anything decent you will come unstuck, trust me. Anyone, make more than 10% taking a position betting pre-event with over 500 bets per year? Nah didn't think so, keep deluding yourselves guys ;) |
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I've never hit as high as 10 , maybe 8 at one time .... i'm finding the % gets lower with a larger bank .
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That's very goog going Coachbuster. The point I'm making in case anyone thinks I'm being cynical is that to make sustainable profits that would deem as sole income you need a much bigger bank than you think. That said, great short term returns can still be made with a variety of other approaches and sometimes a lot of luck!
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That's very goog going Coachbuster. The point I'm making in case anyone thinks I'm being cynical is that to make sustainable profits that would deem as sole income you need a much bigger bank than you think. That said, great short term returns can still be made with a variety of other approaches and sometimes a lot of luck!
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Hello there scrooge. If you have a modest fund and you want to make some kind of living from it you would have to make that money work as hard as possible. Placing 1 and a 1/3 bets a day of £200 means that on average you've got £9700-9800 just sitting in your account each day doing nothing. This money has to be worked in other some way. For a modest bank your best bet(excuse the term) is to have a variety of methods each making a profit that work your bank a bit harder.
If you are simply stating that it's hard to make a living placing 1 and a 1/3 £200 bets per day then i'm sure that there will be many others that agree with you. |
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2500 should be enough,but it depends on how much you want to make,and how hard you want to work and the level of knowledge you possess.
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Pro gamblers so you want to be a pro
To win a wage have to bet a wage the average wage today is £300 . So lets start from there bet £300 a bet , a 5k bank you can have 16 bets a 10k bank you can have 33 bets and so on but if you dont know what your on about a million pound bank wont save you .. ok it will last a bit longer .. but you will do your brains thats if you have a brain . zipper |
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Not sure if it's relevant or helpful, but certain that some on here will rubbish anything that's said, I can say that more than fifteen years ago I met a professional punter on course. He was prepared to help me.
After some questions, he told then that I wouldn't make it; I would need a betting bank of £150K and NO major commitments ( eg mortgage, family, job). Now I think he was right to say that. Years later, I met another "pro punter" on course. It looked like he'd inherited and sold the family farm to go fulltime punting on course. He told me he loved it even though the best he did was 4% profit. He reckoned anybody claiming to be making more than 10% on course was "a fkn liar". Both these guys are not to be seen much on course nowadays. When I've bumped into either, I'm told that overheads ( mostly the travel) are too much, but they do bet a bit from home. I fully expect the betfr players to have totally different stories, so you'll have to make up your own mind. |
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A buffer of around 30-40k would be about where I'd aim, though if you are confident in your ability and have proven it over time to lesser stakes maybe, then maybe you would be OK on less than that.
After all if you are winning money the pot ain't going down is it!! The thing is to have enough to tide you over any particular barren runs, but you'd obviously need the right discipline not to chase in these circumstances anyhow. |
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zipper, who is your script writer ?
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Assume for a moment that 10% return on stakes is top-line expectation for a straight backer betting on the horses.
Assume 1000 bets and assume 2% commission. Ignore PC for the moment. What are the chances that you will average around 10% after commission? Well, it does depend on your MO regarding strike rate but let's take 2 strategies a) averages 50% and b) averages 20% win %. Take 50 different punters on a) and you will find that one will make maybe around 14% and another will lose 2.5%. The majority (2/3) will be in the range 11-5%, with rest spread between the two extremes. Take 50 punters on b) and you will find that one will make maybe 22%+ and another will lose as much as 15% with 2/3 in the range 1-15%. Of course, it will not be a smooth line in every case with most having a bid dipper of an experience going into and out of loss.After 500 bets and you find yourself losing, it takes a hell of a lot of self-belief that what you are doing is going to work in the end. Good luck; whatever your bank size its the ups and downs and the uncertainty that it will work out profitably that will test you. |
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Coachbuster
Date Joined: 08 Apr 06 Add contact | Send message When: 18 Jan 11 11:22 I've never hit as high as 10 , maybe 8 at one time .... i'm finding the % gets lower with a larger bank . Yep profit on turnover (bet volume) went from a high of 18.31% in 2007 to 0.41% in 2010 and I expect it to decrease further. My bet volume was £5.8k in 2007 and £13.5M in 2010. |
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How much did you turnover in 2010 Investor?
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Sorry i meant to ask how you calculated turnover in 2010 with you using books which you hadn't in previous years.
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buzzer, this is only counting betfair activity.
I use 'bet volume' as turnover. In 2010, I turned over an additional £120k with traditional bookies and a little bit with purple. As I lost roughly £4k outside of Betfair in that year, my profit on turnover overall (not just betfair) would even be slightly lower than the 0.41% mentioned. |
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Thanks for the reply. I have to admit i struggle to calculate turnover, perhaps i'm just thick
, due to the variety in my betting. i.e certain markets are used for tic trading, offsetting and straight betting plus other exchanges and books are used, well only really two these days, plus people calculate turnover in different ways as i saw when i started a thread on here. |
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Investor, i guess it would be more relevant if i also mentioned my overall bank increases on average to the tune of 4% each week (pre charges). That figure was 7% 12 mths ago (100% lower bank ) and 2 years ago it briefly hit 10 % (lower bank still).
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5K is more than enough to make a reasonable living on here.
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cont Investor,
That's using as much of my bank each event (if i can get matched ) Low-Medium risk. Strategic betting (placing bets at various points of the game using the opportunity to green out late on if the odds are looking favourable ) (some trading as well on illiquid markets) |
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300 days with an average of 12 dog races per day. Max liability £20 per race.
300 x 12 x 20 = £72,000 t/o Profit £10,000. It's less than minimum wage but I'm my own boss. Not great admittedly but you don't need £1,000's to make it pay. This year hopefully make more. |
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To Kenilworth ....Hi Kenny I dont have a script writer but what i do have is 50 years experience in the gambling game , and believe me its the toughest game in the world .. it tames Lions
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Yes buzzer, it's tricky when people use different ways of working it out. Some people say you should add liability for each bet, but I don't think that makes too much sense. If you back £2 at 1000 and lay £20 at 80, bet volume has increased by £22. If you looked at the stake for these two bets separately, you would be risking £2 on the first, and £20x79 on the second. Using actual max. liability per market would be a good metric, but this is really tricky to work out unless you use an automated tool.
Coach, I guess you mean your bank increases mentioned are per month rather than per week? |
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Investor no ,per week ....i don't operate with a huge bank .
I'm finding so far increasing stakes is fairly counter productive , i doubled late on last year and so far ,the extra capital isn't yielding much at all . Early days yet . |
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Coachbuster do u lay correct scores for a living?
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each £1000 generates £ 40 pre charge p/w
new doubled bank (last 8 weeks or so ) each £1000 generates £ 20 pre charge p/w so no change in overall profits |
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Obviously i haven't sat down with a calculator , but they are to the nearest pound or so .
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Again, I don't know if it's pertinent to what the questioner wants, but we have to remember expenses and overheads. Many people who have never run a business have no idea about these and thus make no allowance.
OK, this is btfr forumland, so different rules probably apply, but most normal folk have to eat and drink and live someplace. Beware of guys who chat about being full-time pro-punters, and, then, on other fora, state how well there huge financial and property investments are doing.  They ain't subsisting totally on draw-downs from the bookies or the Exchanges, imo. If your question is serious, you need to consider the full picture. |