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04 Dec 10
22:09
Joined:
Date Joined:
12 Apr 08
I am opening myself up to a lot of criticism by posting this, so please be gentle with me.
I have been gambling for about 5 years, won £2,500 at the age of 18, blew it in a few months, had ups downs and sideways since then. To explain my background I had to give up my full time job at 20 to look after my grandfather when my grandmother died. Five months down the line I have come to this point in my life. I am sick and tired of trying to scrape together whatever I can spare of the £76.43 a week I am paid to make something of my life.
I have dreams and aspirations to work either within the gambling industry or at a fantasy as a professional gambler. I know they are too far beyond the horizon for me to waste my life dreaming. I will be happy if I could make some money and be profitable over the year, maybe to subsidise my love of attending big horseracing meetings and maybe paying for Racing UK and sky sports.
My predicaments are as follows:
1. I have no betting bank to go by as I have no money behind me. I will get some money together say £100-200 of winnings and place it on something in the attempt to win £1,000 - £2,000 eventually, therefore giving myself a betting bank.
2. I feel my discipline is lacking of late and I am just getting desperate, but I feel I need that stroke of luck to propell me to where I want to be.
3. I have kept records of my betting and I have done well, but I could be say £400 in profit over a 6 month period and have only £50 spare to bet with.
4. I normally will place bets in the £20 range normally, going up to a now maximum of around £200, I feel comfortable punting at these stakes and don't really see the point of putting all the hard work of forming and opinion to then place £1.50 on it.
5. I do have most of the day to study racing, and any other sport I wish to and sometimes will get bored and have £10 for something to watch.
My current set up is as follows:
Sky+ with SS1,2,3 etc & ATR
A Laptop with unlimited brodbamd
Spare time
About 5 online accounts
Can I ask for tips or advice to help improve my gambling and stop myself being a mug punter. I am fed up of going back to the drawing board to start again.
Thanks
I have been gambling for about 5 years, won £2,500 at the age of 18, blew it in a few months, had ups downs and sideways since then. To explain my background I had to give up my full time job at 20 to look after my grandfather when my grandmother died. Five months down the line I have come to this point in my life. I am sick and tired of trying to scrape together whatever I can spare of the £76.43 a week I am paid to make something of my life.
I have dreams and aspirations to work either within the gambling industry or at a fantasy as a professional gambler. I know they are too far beyond the horizon for me to waste my life dreaming. I will be happy if I could make some money and be profitable over the year, maybe to subsidise my love of attending big horseracing meetings and maybe paying for Racing UK and sky sports.
My predicaments are as follows:
1. I have no betting bank to go by as I have no money behind me. I will get some money together say £100-200 of winnings and place it on something in the attempt to win £1,000 - £2,000 eventually, therefore giving myself a betting bank.
2. I feel my discipline is lacking of late and I am just getting desperate, but I feel I need that stroke of luck to propell me to where I want to be.
3. I have kept records of my betting and I have done well, but I could be say £400 in profit over a 6 month period and have only £50 spare to bet with.
4. I normally will place bets in the £20 range normally, going up to a now maximum of around £200, I feel comfortable punting at these stakes and don't really see the point of putting all the hard work of forming and opinion to then place £1.50 on it.
5. I do have most of the day to study racing, and any other sport I wish to and sometimes will get bored and have £10 for something to watch.
My current set up is as follows:
Sky+ with SS1,2,3 etc & ATR
A Laptop with unlimited brodbamd
Spare time
About 5 online accounts
Can I ask for tips or advice to help improve my gambling and stop myself being a mug punter. I am fed up of going back to the drawing board to start again.
Thanks
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clacher - the sport I bet on is rugby - what about an intercept try? There's just one random event.
Seriously, football in no way has the monopoly on these apparently unpredictable events.
Seriously, football in no way has the monopoly on these apparently unpredictable events.
visionary, the example you mention doesn't have the impact on the result
that goal in football has. Soccer averages about 2.6 goals per match, a
higher % than a try in rugby.
that goal in football has. Soccer averages about 2.6 goals per match, a
higher % than a try in rugby.
but no goals "are the result of one random event or piece of skill that no form can predict.
And here we eventually come to the crux of the matter:
Statistics are a measure of AVERAGES.
A well-opined bettor can see beyond the averages. A statistician cannot.
And here we eventually come to the crux of the matter:
Statistics are a measure of AVERAGES.
A well-opined bettor can see beyond the averages. A statistician cannot.
What can the well opined bettor see that the statistician cannot not ?
What can the well opined bettor see that the statistician cannot not ?
The truth. Like Neo seeing The Matrix.
The truth. Like Neo seeing The Matrix.
Statistics are a measure of AVERAGES.
A well-opined bettor can see beyond the averages. A statistician cannot
It is not simply a case of using the statistics of the last season or so to find that Man United would win at home to Arsenal 50% of the time and then pricing United @2.0
The Odds would be adjusted based on how much better/worse the teams are right now , in relation to each other.
No one who compiles odds for Football has ever on here stated that they simply expect the past results to be repeated in the future.
And yet that seems to be the main arguement the 'no such thing as value' theorists have.
A well-opined bettor can see beyond the averages. A statistician cannot
It is not simply a case of using the statistics of the last season or so to find that Man United would win at home to Arsenal 50% of the time and then pricing United @2.0
The Odds would be adjusted based on how much better/worse the teams are right now , in relation to each other.
No one who compiles odds for Football has ever on here stated that they simply expect the past results to be repeated in the future.
And yet that seems to be the main arguement the 'no such thing as value' theorists have.
Bookies are just guessers. Eiter that or the whole thing is fixed.
was on tv yesterday that over 90% of people have more than the average number of legs 
This has been a very interesting discussion, but as a part time gambler for over 40 years, I would say do something proper with your time. If you study and work hard you might make 5 grand one year and lose 4 grand the next. The chances of you making 25g per year for the next 10 years are negligible. If you were a jockey or trainer, then stick with horses, otherwise forget them completely apart from £10 each year on the Grand National.
You have the internet and time, do some of these.
1.learn an instrument.
2.get a Care qualification, set up a Care company and supply the caring service to your granddad for proper money paid for by social services, employing you.
3. get a small quiet dog and take it out twice a day, and train it well.
4. get some basic training in accountancy.
5. do some keep fit exercises twice a day, eg running up and down the stairs till exhausted costs nothing.
6. You like darts, so become the best darts player in the UK, practice makes perfect.
7. stop wasting time on sky sports.
8. practice new cookery ideas and write a cook book for carers.
9. study setting up and coding web pages/ programming.
10.start a web site for carers, called grumpygranddads.com, ask for donations via paypal if the viewers like it. (send me 10% royalty). It could easily go Mega and all forumites are invited to chip in some feeder capital, for a share.
11. Get granddad to tell you tales from his life and write them all down. This material will fund your pension in book and film rights.(another 10% please)
12. Stop wasting time looking for an edge that will allow you to slowly give betfair 5% of my money. betting is a parasitical operation that helps no one and wastes lives. You are still young, and if you continue you will look back when you are 50 and wish you had done at least 2 off my list.
Best wishes and merry christmas to you all.
You have the internet and time, do some of these.
1.learn an instrument.
2.get a Care qualification, set up a Care company and supply the caring service to your granddad for proper money paid for by social services, employing you.
3. get a small quiet dog and take it out twice a day, and train it well.
4. get some basic training in accountancy.
5. do some keep fit exercises twice a day, eg running up and down the stairs till exhausted costs nothing.
6. You like darts, so become the best darts player in the UK, practice makes perfect.
7. stop wasting time on sky sports.
8. practice new cookery ideas and write a cook book for carers.
9. study setting up and coding web pages/ programming.
10.start a web site for carers, called grumpygranddads.com, ask for donations via paypal if the viewers like it. (send me 10% royalty). It could easily go Mega and all forumites are invited to chip in some feeder capital, for a share.
11. Get granddad to tell you tales from his life and write them all down. This material will fund your pension in book and film rights.(another 10% please)
12. Stop wasting time looking for an edge that will allow you to slowly give betfair 5% of my money. betting is a parasitical operation that helps no one and wastes lives. You are still young, and if you continue you will look back when you are 50 and wish you had done at least 2 off my list.
Best wishes and merry christmas to you all.
It seems to me that if you accomplished that list of items wholly or partly you're going to look back with regrets at havind had a very boring life.
The dog suggestion is the only good one.
The dog suggestion is the only good one.
learn an instrument good suggestion too....9 tho? 
I done 9 a few years ago as i was always bored when waiting about online and went on to start an internet marketing company which has brought it over £30k in the last 2 and half years, all for very little work in my spare time.
the only instrument i ever been interseted in is the harp
Rod Hull
" I done 9 ---"
Bit inconsistent with your spelling corrections on other threads ?
" I done 9 ---"
Bit inconsistent with your spelling corrections on other threads ?
guardone's post is probably the best post ever submitted.
theres more money to be made in caring than alot of other pursuits that dont require much training
Money to be made in caring.
Doesn't sit well really.
But it's true sadly.
As someone said " Life is priceless, but death comes in at about 15 grand ".
Doesn't sit well really.
But it's true sadly.
As someone said " Life is priceless, but death comes in at about 15 grand ".
True. Duncan Banatyne has a lot to answer for. NEarly had a heart attack from the first quote I was given for a care home. Not for my good self, mind
FINE AS FROG HAIR 24 Dec 10 21:06
Money to be made in caring.
Doesn't sit well really.
its true sadly, you have to go further and say its easy money, especially for those not on the front line.
Money to be made in caring.
Doesn't sit well really.
its true sadly, you have to go further and say its easy money, especially for those not on the front line.
"you're going to look back with regrets at havind had a very boring life." said Fine as FH. Agree if that is all you do, but this is just for the next few years looking after GD, while you prepare for the rest of your life. See africa, photograph the tonsils of a large male lion, win SPOY as a darts supremo, have 2 hit albums with your Beatles covers played on a french horn, the list is endless, then buy a horse and lose the lot if you still have the bug.//or better still ride it to 3rd in a hunter chase, dreaming of Aintree.
Loserschaselosers is a very good judge.
Loserschaselosers is a very good judge.
JJFlash69, ignore all the advice you've been given, especially the advice on money management and looking for an edge etc, its pointless, and old.
I've been a successful bookie or punter all my life, from 17 years of age, always made money, and even get caught with the infamous Premium Charge now and then.
If your going to be a gambler, its a lifestyle, not a living and NEVER a job, understand that day 1.
Account/money management: FFS your a gambler, not a business, every race is race 1, until the last race(death). If your not willing to live the 'life' then get a job.
Edge: your edge is that you are a gambler, you either have the instinct or you dont. There was once an advantage doing all the form, pricing markets, but when there are more form students than runners, lets face it the odds are that someone other than yourself has priced most of the the market right, and is taking that profit.
Discipline: actually refers to the amount of time you have to dedicate to your 'life', not your betting patterns. Every bet teaches you something, hones your instincts. If you dont understand that, then whats the joy in being a disciplined loser?
Luck: not sure about God, but certain about the 'Lady', respect her moods, remember she's the love of your 'life'.
I've been a successful bookie or punter all my life, from 17 years of age, always made money, and even get caught with the infamous Premium Charge now and then.
If your going to be a gambler, its a lifestyle, not a living and NEVER a job, understand that day 1.
Account/money management: FFS your a gambler, not a business, every race is race 1, until the last race(death). If your not willing to live the 'life' then get a job.
Edge: your edge is that you are a gambler, you either have the instinct or you dont. There was once an advantage doing all the form, pricing markets, but when there are more form students than runners, lets face it the odds are that someone other than yourself has priced most of the the market right, and is taking that profit.
Discipline: actually refers to the amount of time you have to dedicate to your 'life', not your betting patterns. Every bet teaches you something, hones your instincts. If you dont understand that, then whats the joy in being a disciplined loser?
Luck: not sure about God, but certain about the 'Lady', respect her moods, remember she's the love of your 'life'.
You can't win long term on Betfair by taking poor odds unless you already know the outcome. So I'm not sure what to make of your post.
JJFlash69, ignore all the advice make me fly has given...he's clearly taking the ****
Can't speak from experience myself as i'm a dirty rich arber but i have just read a book written by an acquaintance of mine who is a pro gambler and it's not what I thought it would be at all.There is no use of instinct whatsoever the whole process uses very in depth statistical analysis and modeling to get +EV.
You guys need to read between the lines. Too many of you are too blinkered.
Can't speak from experience myself as i'm a dirty rich arber but i have just read a book written by an acquaintance of mine who is a pro gambler and it's not what I thought it would be at all.There is no use of instinct whatsoever the whole process uses very in depth statistical analysis and modeling to get +EV.
I was considering writing a book which would have said the complete opposite, then I realised that the return from the book sales would have been fractional compared to use of that knowledge.
I was considering writing a book which would have said the complete opposite, then I realised that the return from the book sales would have been fractional compared to use of that knowledge.
I expect you are a very small fish though Betfairy whos luck won't last this guy isn't.
This is the book duncan http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00447T5ZG/ref=oss_product hard work if your maths isn't very good I would think.
This is the book duncan http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00447T5ZG/ref=oss_product hard work if your maths isn't very good I would think.
That's what I love about this place. The ostriches.
Looks promising, is there are table of contents availble online, or snippets of the book?
JJF69 wants to be a 'smart gambler', not an arber and not a grinder.
Instead of looking at Betfair from the perspective of price/stats and results, look at just the who/what/why of the bettors.
Which are the markets where the bettors are just turning over money(doing the washing), trying to play bookie or just having a day/night on the punt.
Smart gamblers look for losers.
Instead of looking at Betfair from the perspective of price/stats and results, look at just the who/what/why of the bettors.
Which are the markets where the bettors are just turning over money(doing the washing), trying to play bookie or just having a day/night on the punt.
Smart gamblers look for losers.
If you've really got something good then it isn't worth sharing it in a book.
The classic example being Andrew Beyer with the ground breaking Picking Winners in 1975. His previously profitable methods ceased to be so once they were common knowledge. I can recommend it though, very entertaining read.
The book that GPT mentions above does get me thinking though. How many more maths bods can the market stand? Surely it will get to the point where everyone is chasing each others tails fighting over tighter & tighter margins?
I'm not sure who mentioned it, might even be further up in this thread, but the ultimate operator on here will probably have a combination of everything or they will be working as a team addressing everything between them.
The classic example being Andrew Beyer with the ground breaking Picking Winners in 1975. His previously profitable methods ceased to be so once they were common knowledge. I can recommend it though, very entertaining read.
The book that GPT mentions above does get me thinking though. How many more maths bods can the market stand? Surely it will get to the point where everyone is chasing each others tails fighting over tighter & tighter margins?
I'm not sure who mentioned it, might even be further up in this thread, but the ultimate operator on here will probably have a combination of everything or they will be working as a team addressing everything between them.
Smart gamblers look for losers.
Even smarter gamblers look for winners.
Just as true today on BF as it was 40 years ago when I spent most of my time playing poker.
Even smarter gamblers look for winners.
Just as true today on BF as it was 40 years ago when I spent most of my time playing poker.
Its already reached that point DaveEdwards, nobody has that great an advantage anymore. There is a finite number of factors that go into the pricing of any market, and a finite amount of money on offer to be lost.
The parallel is Texas Hold-em, remember all the maths nerds going pro, and every 2nd successful pro writing a book, giving advice on edge, discipline, stack management etc
The parallel is Texas Hold-em, remember all the maths nerds going pro, and every 2nd successful pro writing a book, giving advice on edge, discipline, stack management etc
Interesting to see peoples opinions on this thread mostly negative or of no use to anyone(Betfairy).I don't think "sharing" something in a book accurately describes all information certainly not in relation to the book I read it's complicated enough without even doing the hard work yourself so that rules out 99.9% of people using the information anyway.
Poker isn't sports gambling so that's a bad analogy.
Poker isn't sports gambling so that's a bad analogy.
GPT, that is a fair enough point that even if you spell something out in a book, the reader still needs to interpret & apply the information correctly. This obviously will not always be the case. That said, if only a few % of the books readers do it effectively and bet large enough then any perceived advantage would be negated to a greater or lesser extent.
The objectivity of a purely mathematical approach is imo it's downside. The example that Betfairy raises with the football scenario is virtually impossible to model. I recall a few years ago being in a laddies shop while they were offering in-running betting. Something similar occurred and there was a pause while they were obviously trying to work out what odds to offer. They came up with something middling in the end.
Objectivity for the spadework, but subjectivity for the sweeties, imho.
The objectivity of a purely mathematical approach is imo it's downside. The example that Betfairy raises with the football scenario is virtually impossible to model. I recall a few years ago being in a laddies shop while they were offering in-running betting. Something similar occurred and there was a pause while they were obviously trying to work out what odds to offer. They came up with something middling in the end.
Objectivity for the spadework, but subjectivity for the sweeties, imho.
Objectivity for the spadework, but subjectivity for the sweeties, imho.
And the beauty is, you can let others do all the objectivity hard work.
And the beauty is, you can let others do all the objectivity hard work.
You can indeed, but sometimes the market does get it a little wrong, usually based on factors that have been overlooked. Again, subjectivity being the key here.
Fair points I probably look at gambling from the perspective of what I do which is wholly logical may be opinion has some merit but opinion has to be based on some logic so why not analyse fully if you have time.
1) Learn discipline
2) Kerb greed
3) Learn to lose
1) Discipline
If you are not disciplined, or can not learn to be disciplined you may as well pack in now.
2) Greed
Why the rush for sudden winnings? Does the world end at midnight? If you are in for the long haul then view it as such.
3) Lose
You can not win all the time. Learn to take a loss without chasing.
In conclusion to make the transition from mug to smart gambler is more about how you behave than what you do.
2) Kerb greed
3) Learn to lose
1) Discipline
If you are not disciplined, or can not learn to be disciplined you may as well pack in now.
2) Greed
Why the rush for sudden winnings? Does the world end at midnight? If you are in for the long haul then view it as such.
3) Lose
You can not win all the time. Learn to take a loss without chasing.
In conclusion to make the transition from mug to smart gambler is more about how you behave than what you do.
I bet mainly on live tv football matches, covering about 8 markets,
usually getting about 5 bets matched, but so far this season I am
finding it more difficult to find any value. Yesterday in the
Coventry match I got one bet matched, but nothing at all in the match
at Upton Park. I didn't play in the B'ham / ManU match as I was out
for the evening. This evening I've posted about 5 requests in the L'pool
match but nothing so far, and not hopeful as prices on offer mirror my
view. Point is, it's getting harder and harder. I may have to try the
Betfairy method.
nowadays
usually getting about 5 bets matched, but so far this season I am
finding it more difficult to find any value. Yesterday in the
Coventry match I got one bet matched, but nothing at all in the match
at Upton Park. I didn't play in the B'ham / ManU match as I was out
for the evening. This evening I've posted about 5 requests in the L'pool
match but nothing so far, and not hopeful as prices on offer mirror my
view. Point is, it's getting harder and harder. I may have to try the
Betfairy method.
nowadays
Ken, I was watching the Coventry match. After about 10 minutes I was considered QPR's chances very good, despite COventry pushing hard and going close a couple of times. So I backed them and waited. I was looking at a red of around 40% of my initial mistake by half time. However, I waited a few minutes longers and then QPR scored. I held the bet open and they scored again on 61mins. I laid off completely to sub 1.06.
Was any of this "value"? I have no idea - I just went with my gut.
Was any of this "value"? I have no idea - I just went with my gut.
I was also watching the Liverpool v Utrecht match a couple of weeks ago. Despite their poor form I thought Liverpool was win the match easily. I backed them heavily from the start. At half time and 0-0 I doubled up. The final score was 0-0, giving me a hefty loss.
"Value" did not enter my head. Football did.
"Value" did not enter my head. Football did.
Betfairy, Your reading of the Cov/QPR was as I saw it, Cov huffing and puffing
but QPR looking the more likely. I looked at the match odds and they showed
similar, proportionately to pre kickoff prices and IMO reflected what I was seeing,
so I wasn't tempted to play. Once the first goal went in, a fluke really, there
was no way back for Cov.
but QPR looking the more likely. I looked at the match odds and they showed
similar, proportionately to pre kickoff prices and IMO reflected what I was seeing,
so I wasn't tempted to play. Once the first goal went in, a fluke really, there
was no way back for Cov.
Throwing good money after bad always a winning strategy that one
Agreed - it wasn't clever; a move more in hope than expectation. These are the urges gut-feelers must control.
On the other hand, after hitting the first goal for Man City against Villa the other day my guts said "more", so I doubled up and hit the 2nd for an equally hefty win.
Betfairy, you actually take note prices whether you think so
or not. Recently you posted ManC at 2.4, and I'm sure it was
the price in that case.
or not. Recently you posted ManC at 2.4, and I'm sure it was
the price in that case.
Just to update you all.
After taking some time away to think about things I made some plans in my head. Set them out and went to put them into practice. Life, being what it is decided that it would take a turn and move things in another direction.
My grandfather passed away on New Years Day and I am now no longer a carer and instead I am looking for a job. After plenty more thought I decided that if you can't beat them then join them and I decided I want to persue a career in bookmaking industry trying as hard as I can to focus on Horse Racing.
I am finding it extremely difficult to get anywhere to take me on even as a basic cashier and I have had around 6 jobs turned down without getting an interview! So for me it is back to the drawing board and I will reappear sometime in the spring for the start of the flat season with my next update.
Thank you for all your responses.
After taking some time away to think about things I made some plans in my head. Set them out and went to put them into practice. Life, being what it is decided that it would take a turn and move things in another direction.
My grandfather passed away on New Years Day and I am now no longer a carer and instead I am looking for a job. After plenty more thought I decided that if you can't beat them then join them and I decided I want to persue a career in bookmaking industry trying as hard as I can to focus on Horse Racing.
I am finding it extremely difficult to get anywhere to take me on even as a basic cashier and I have had around 6 jobs turned down without getting an interview! So for me it is back to the drawing board and I will reappear sometime in the spring for the start of the flat season with my next update.
Thank you for all your responses.
turned down for a cashiers job 6 times .
Can you speak Polish ?
Can you speak Polish ?
JJJ
Start dumbing down your CV if you want a job as a cashier at a bookmaker.
Start dumbing down your CV if you want a job as a cashier at a bookmaker.
I'm glad to see there are so many "Mug Punters" alive and kicking, because it should be obvious to anyone bothering to look that only the Bookmakers have made a profit long-term i.e week after week, month after month, year after year! There was a clue in that last sentence!
Call it what you like...But "Bank" is as good a word as any! You need one to calculate your winnings and losses, you need one to isolate your life from disaster ONLY GAMBLE WITH WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE! So save up a "Bank" pick a system use a pin who cares but sit down at your computer.
NOW ITS THIS SIMPLE...IF BET ONE LOSES BET TWO MUST RECOVER BET ONE'S LOSSES AND A PROFIT AND SO ON...AFTER ONE WIN I WOULD ADVISE STOPPING AND COMING BACK TOMORROW...NO GREED!!!
So look at your bank look at the odds for your selections and use MATHS to work out the size of your bets! Yes I'm sorry MATHS! CAN'T DO IT CAN'T GAMBLE SUCCESSFULLY.
If you lose all of your bank straight away, your system was rubbish, or your pin was bent, pick another system save up another bank and try again!
As your bank grows makes a profit...pick an amount that allows you to play the system but doesn't cause you to lose too much of the bank/profit!
Example: Bank started at £500, now it's £750, I would pick an amount of £400 and that would be the total amount I would lose that day, leaving me £350 to try again.
NOW LISTEN TO ME, YOU WILL LOSE, EITHER BECAUSE OF A SMALL BANK OR BAD SELECTIONS! OR SODS LAW! EITHER WAY ITS AT LEAST TOMORROW OFF! I WOULD ADVISE THREE DAYS!
(A) To stop your self chasing.
(B) To Break the back of any losing streak.
(C) To recuperate, To rest, re-test, why did the system fail?
If all was right from day one you've only lost some profit! Sit down and start again.
Maths will teach you that you don't need a 100% hit rate system, if you can win 25 days out of 30, using maths will turn that into profit...
On the five days you lost you lose £2000 but the 25 winning ones gain you £2250, £250 profit.
So...Discipline: Don't chase, don't be greedy, stick to the your maths answers!
Maths: Without it you have no chance!
Patience: Compound interest is a wonderful thing!
Those are the three things you need! Good luck!
Call it what you like...But "Bank" is as good a word as any! You need one to calculate your winnings and losses, you need one to isolate your life from disaster ONLY GAMBLE WITH WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE! So save up a "Bank" pick a system use a pin who cares but sit down at your computer.
NOW ITS THIS SIMPLE...IF BET ONE LOSES BET TWO MUST RECOVER BET ONE'S LOSSES AND A PROFIT AND SO ON...AFTER ONE WIN I WOULD ADVISE STOPPING AND COMING BACK TOMORROW...NO GREED!!!
So look at your bank look at the odds for your selections and use MATHS to work out the size of your bets! Yes I'm sorry MATHS! CAN'T DO IT CAN'T GAMBLE SUCCESSFULLY.
If you lose all of your bank straight away, your system was rubbish, or your pin was bent, pick another system save up another bank and try again!
As your bank grows makes a profit...pick an amount that allows you to play the system but doesn't cause you to lose too much of the bank/profit!
Example: Bank started at £500, now it's £750, I would pick an amount of £400 and that would be the total amount I would lose that day, leaving me £350 to try again.
NOW LISTEN TO ME, YOU WILL LOSE, EITHER BECAUSE OF A SMALL BANK OR BAD SELECTIONS! OR SODS LAW! EITHER WAY ITS AT LEAST TOMORROW OFF! I WOULD ADVISE THREE DAYS!
(A) To stop your self chasing.
(B) To Break the back of any losing streak.
(C) To recuperate, To rest, re-test, why did the system fail?
If all was right from day one you've only lost some profit! Sit down and start again.
Maths will teach you that you don't need a 100% hit rate system, if you can win 25 days out of 30, using maths will turn that into profit...
On the five days you lost you lose £2000 but the 25 winning ones gain you £2250, £250 profit.
So...Discipline: Don't chase, don't be greedy, stick to the your maths answers!
Maths: Without it you have no chance!
Patience: Compound interest is a wonderful thing!
Those are the three things you need! Good luck!
Gooner
I like your style.
And your content ain't half bad too.
I like your style.
And your content ain't half bad too.
There's some interesting stuff in this article if anyone can be bothered to read through it ... Here's the link
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/how_to/articles/9-Tips-to-Trading-Without-Emotion-Part-1-77648.cfm
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/how_to/articles/9-Tips-to-Trading-Without-Emotion-Part-1-77648.cfm
Don't forget to skip the ad at the beginning
NOW ITS THIS SIMPLE...IF BET ONE LOSES BET TWO MUST RECOVER BET ONE'S LOSSES AND A PROFIT AND SO ON
The you go on to advise against chasing That is chasing though
The you go on to advise against chasing
That is chasing though
I think Gooner's advice is ridiculously bad. Interesting that others disagree....
Goonermike 21 Jan 11 07:17
Example: Bank started at £500, now it's £750, I would pick an amount of £400 and that would be the total amount I would lose that day, leaving me £350 to try again.
NOW ITS THIS SIMPLE...IF BET ONE LOSES BET TWO MUST RECOVER BET ONE'S LOSSES AND A PROFIT AND SO ON
Point 1. 400 from a bank of 750 is waaaay to high.
Point 2. Can't agree with that at all, maringale comes to mind.. and we all know where that leads.
Otherwise, there is some basic advice in your post. gl.
Example: Bank started at £500, now it's £750, I would pick an amount of £400 and that would be the total amount I would lose that day, leaving me £350 to try again.
NOW ITS THIS SIMPLE...IF BET ONE LOSES BET TWO MUST RECOVER BET ONE'S LOSSES AND A PROFIT AND SO ON
Point 1. 400 from a bank of 750 is waaaay to high.
Point 2. Can't agree with that at all, maringale comes to mind.. and we all know where that leads.
Otherwise, there is some basic advice in your post. gl.
If you don't OK, chase your loses for that day, how can you ever make a profit? What do you do? Hope that every first bet is a winner? Chasing is about going after yesterday's losses or last weeks, and if you have a cap, an amount that you won't go over you are covered not to go too far!
Basic advice I agree, its that simple!
Agreed £400 from a £750 bank does sound high, but in a sound system it is not, it gives your system time to throw in that one winner you need, if your maths is good!
If we had a way of Posting our winnings/progress, without giving away too much, I would be able to put my money where my mouth is! I had to learn discipline and patience. I have and I'm showing a 340% increase in my pot since the 27th of December! With two losing days adding up to almost £500 (£200-£293) having started with a bank of £500.
I would be happy for Betfair to confirm that or a moderator on this board!
Basic advice I agree, its that simple!
Agreed £400 from a £750 bank does sound high, but in a sound system it is not, it gives your system time to throw in that one winner you need, if your maths is good!
If we had a way of Posting our winnings/progress, without giving away too much, I would be able to put my money where my mouth is! I had to learn discipline and patience. I have and I'm showing a 340% increase in my pot since the 27th of December! With two losing days adding up to almost £500 (£200-£293) having started with a bank of £500.
I would be happy for Betfair to confirm that or a moderator on this board!
ive never seen a punters yacht
bet for fun not ruin my friend
bet for fun not ruin my friend
Your Method is the definition of chasing.
Being ahead for 4 weeks with a crazy staking system is hardly proof of your shrewdness. Betting large proportions of your bank can of course lead to huge increases when things are going well, but it will wipe you out in a few days on a bad run.
Trying to win certain amounts every day and being prepared to blow more than half your money if you don't do it on Bet 1 is a pretty certain way to finish up with fk all.
If all your bets are sound from a value point of view (both winners and losers) , and you stake sensibly , then it doesn't matter if particular bets lose, or if you have a losing day/week, you will win long term.
Being ahead for 4 weeks with a crazy staking system is hardly proof of your shrewdness. Betting large proportions of your bank can of course lead to huge increases when things are going well, but it will wipe you out in a few days on a bad run.
Trying to win certain amounts every day and being prepared to blow more than half your money if you don't do it on Bet 1 is a pretty certain way to finish up with fk all.
If all your bets are sound from a value point of view (both winners and losers) , and you stake sensibly , then it doesn't matter if particular bets lose, or if you have a losing day/week, you will win long term.
Goonermike, sorry for sounding negative but I think you're on a short term high and the elation has affected your thinking. What you've posted is a recipe for disaster to my mind.
If you're only making money because you raise the stakes after a loss, when you hit a prolonged losing run your over staking and chasing will eventually wipe the bank, maybe not for many months though. You can last an awful long term betting red or black on a roulette table with a mild martingaling system, but eventually the tiny 2.7% house edge will defeat you.
Do you have a perceived edge in any market, which gives a return without the need to chase, or is your perceived edge your staking plan?
If you're only making money because you raise the stakes after a loss, when you hit a prolonged losing run your over staking and chasing will eventually wipe the bank, maybe not for many months though. You can last an awful long term betting red or black on a roulette table with a mild martingaling system, but eventually the tiny 2.7% house edge will defeat you.
Do you have a perceived edge in any market, which gives a return without the need to chase, or is your perceived edge your staking plan?
Many, initially, win due to kamikaze staking then, when it all comes crashing down, they blame a lack of discipline
That's weird Tobermory, I said nearly the same thing as you, but your post wasn't there when I posted, and even after I posted when I looked I was right behind Deepwater's post of 14.52, not the first time that's happened though, forum must update very slow or something?
I think some of you may need to read slower and think slower!
I never once mentioned raising stakes! I've been using a version of this system for six-years!
I said I had to learn discipline and patience...I tried to win hundreds in a day and would bet on all other sports often reducing my pot!
MATHS and ODDS often mean you don't have to raise anything gentlemen.
Prolonged losing run? You didn't read slowly did you? When you lose your SET AMOUNT STOP for a few days!
Anyway its like trying to prove the Earth isn't flat, I don't really care what anyone thinks...I wasn't looking for you to debunk me...I was just offering solid advice if you don't think it is that's fine...I need people like you betting against me!!!!
I never once mentioned raising stakes! I've been using a version of this system for six-years!
I said I had to learn discipline and patience...I tried to win hundreds in a day and would bet on all other sports often reducing my pot!
MATHS and ODDS often mean you don't have to raise anything gentlemen.
Prolonged losing run? You didn't read slowly did you? When you lose your SET AMOUNT STOP for a few days!
Anyway its like trying to prove the Earth isn't flat, I don't really care what anyone thinks...I wasn't looking for you to debunk me...I was just offering solid advice if you don't think it is that's fine...I need people like you betting against me!!!!
Come to think of it I never mentioned a staking system either! I just said if you don't make a profit on a bet why are you betting! To make a profit surely you have to do your sums to make sure you recover your losses...and no not from yesterday or last month just from that day!!!
My very first line in my very first post was/is my edge!
Now this is where I could go wrong and try and win loads and come back here to say see I told you it works!!!
build a little each day, a step at a time, and all those other sayings that really just mean patience, that's the key! I think Betfair started with just 36 punters!
My very first line in my very first post was/is my edge!
Now this is where I could go wrong and try and win loads and come back here to say see I told you it works!!!
build a little each day, a step at a time, and all those other sayings that really just mean patience, that's the key! I think Betfair started with just 36 punters!
Sorry, why do you have to recover any losses the same day? I dont understand what that has to do with value betting or making a long-term profit.
Haha! Just read my post from 18 months ago, I was so polite lol :)
I'd be amazed if GoonerMike is still in the game.
I'd be amazed if GoonerMike is still in the game.
Omg, goonermike, that is the worst advice I have ever seen.
I wonder how it turned out for Jumping Jack. Trading is the only way to make a long term profit on an exchange. Paid £260 this week on premium charge really hard to take. If this trading isnt tough enough to have your account deducted by that sort amount is soul destroying.
Excellent thread with wise words from the usual people.
Mordin.
09 Aug 12 02:48
Trading is the only way to make a long term profit on an exchange.
No it's not. Cheers.
09 Aug 12 02:48
Trading is the only way to make a long term profit on an exchange.
No it's not. Cheers.
Two that stood out for me:
3. I have kept records of my betting and I have done well, but I could be say £400 in profit over a 6 month period and have only £50 spare to bet with.
Find the handful of teams / types of races, etc, you do well on and target them for a bet then focus on the news leading up to gauge the value, etc. ALSO, too many people look at the teams the win and lose when backing. The trick for an extra edge is to look at results when teams are involved. Example - you bet that the Yankees will beat the Brewers at 1.85. You win. In your records you put .85 with Yankees and Brewers. The bet looses - you put -1 in each.
For me, years ago, it was the Bruins (back or oppose) was somewhere around 1 for 10. I couldn't read the team.
I'm aware of a tipster that this season is 0-16 in games involving the Blue Jays (win/lose/run-line/over under). He continues to place bets and I continue to fade him. I started after 0-4. ROI is 132%
Same with horse races. Cut out the types of races you lose on. Distance, type of race, TRACKS(!).
4. I normally will place bets in the £20 range normally, going up to a now maximum of around £200, I feel comfortable punting at these stakes and don't really see the point of putting all the hard work of forming and opinion to then place £1.50 on it.
£20 to £200.00 - is any bet worth 'ten times' what you normally bet? I thought about this for a long time and came up with 5 to 8 pts. 5 is my norm, pulling back to 4, ramping to 6. 3-4 is my flutter. 8 is my targeted events, 7 being if conditions aren't 100% perfect.
It's a ratio I am comfortable with that and don't break into a sweat or get angry at losers.
3. I have kept records of my betting and I have done well, but I could be say £400 in profit over a 6 month period and have only £50 spare to bet with.
Find the handful of teams / types of races, etc, you do well on and target them for a bet then focus on the news leading up to gauge the value, etc. ALSO, too many people look at the teams the win and lose when backing. The trick for an extra edge is to look at results when teams are involved. Example - you bet that the Yankees will beat the Brewers at 1.85. You win. In your records you put .85 with Yankees and Brewers. The bet looses - you put -1 in each.
For me, years ago, it was the Bruins (back or oppose) was somewhere around 1 for 10. I couldn't read the team.
I'm aware of a tipster that this season is 0-16 in games involving the Blue Jays (win/lose/run-line/over under). He continues to place bets and I continue to fade him. I started after 0-4. ROI is 132%
Same with horse races. Cut out the types of races you lose on. Distance, type of race, TRACKS(!).
4. I normally will place bets in the £20 range normally, going up to a now maximum of around £200, I feel comfortable punting at these stakes and don't really see the point of putting all the hard work of forming and opinion to then place £1.50 on it.
£20 to £200.00 - is any bet worth 'ten times' what you normally bet? I thought about this for a long time and came up with 5 to 8 pts. 5 is my norm, pulling back to 4, ramping to 6. 3-4 is my flutter. 8 is my targeted events, 7 being if conditions aren't 100% perfect.
It's a ratio I am comfortable with that and don't break into a sweat or get angry at losers.
I'm surprised at some of the negative remarks in the thread about 'grinding'.
More or less the only way I know how to do it is grind--to take a little value here, a little value there, to accumulate small advantages.
You don't want to have to think about your next bet and you don't really want winning or losing to be in yr mind at all--just the extent and reliability of yr edge.
More or less the only way I know how to do it is grind--to take a little value here, a little value there, to accumulate small advantages.
You don't want to have to think about your next bet and you don't really want winning or losing to be in yr mind at all--just the extent and reliability of yr edge.
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