General Betting
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Just had to google ferengi.
Personally I am pre-kick off and always take a view on the outcome of the game before I get involved. |
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FINE AS FROG HAIR Joined: 12 Mar 07
Replies: 905 24 Oct 10 04:29 I thank you both for your reply efforts. However, I'm still as lost as ever in trying to see the sound maths in all of this. I just don't get Trevh's examples at all eg in 3) aren't you assuming that somehow you don't trade out of the one that ends up winning ? In Investor's scenarios it all seems like reactionary type betting. It's certainly trading, but is it mathematically sound.? Let's leave it all at that. You're convinced in your methods, which is all that really matters. Measuring risk/reward is a somewhat subjective process. You can state that if two people make a 100% return over a year, and one has done so with a maximum drawdown of 10%, and the other with a maximum drawdown of 100%, it seems easy to figure out which strategy is favourable (factoring in the possibilities that these discrepancies are due purely to luck). However if someone has a 100% return with a max 50% drawdown, and someone else has a 30% with a max 1% drawdown which is better? You can analyse this with Sharpe ratios, ROMAD etc. but these are artificial constructs. Given the choice, different people will choose different levels of risk. |
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The Management
Could you possibly tell me where you learnt your highly developed communication skills.? I wouldn't want to enroll on the wrong course. Did yours specialize in the highly effective whinging technique to make your points.? Dave Edwards The thing is I don't have any pre-conceived outlook on the subject in question. That's why I'm looking for direction. And actually I'm usually a very good listener,particularly if I'm hearing something useful or interesting. |
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In any type of trading it is the case that if you have two ways of making an equivalent profit, the one with the least volatility is preferable.
Due to the PC, Betfair has become unique in that this is the only place in the world I know of where this is not the case (for a tiny minority of customers at least). Counterexamples welcome! For instance I am better off making a net profit on winning markets of £2,000 and losing £1,000, than I would be making money with 100% consistency for net winning markets of £1,000 and losses of £0. |
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Sorry Mgt.
Just realized I was sort of breaking one of my rules, about not getting too personal with anyone. And that should and must be all-inclusive. Again my sincerest. |
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Inorder to kill off this thread before it rolls on into tirades of personal abuse, let's do the following.
If those of you who are absolutely sure and convinced that you're onto something really sound and useful in this " trading" form of betting, then just point me in the direction of any really good books you have read on the subject. And I don't mean books on the concept of rating teams etc to establish goal expectancy etc etc to set up correct prices. I've read enough of those not to be convinced on this subject. I mean books on actually trading in and out of prices actively. Presumably you're not all so clever that you made it up entirely by yourselves, with no external guidance or assistance. Or did you ? So how about a list of relevant reading matter for me ? Then I will be off and out of your hair on this one. Sounds good to me. To you also ? |
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I go and visit a site called betfair. They have markets and price movements and stuff. I find it helpful
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Presumably you're not all so clever that you made it up entirely by yourselves, with no external guidance or assistance.
Or did you ? I assume that's what most have done. |
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ok seriously heres a few tips & Cheats
In the Goblin Dungeon - DIG - SMASH TRAP DOOR (keep doing it until it breaks, there is a CURIOUS KEY underneath. Thorin will take the Key) - SAY TO THORIN "OPEN WINDOW" - SAY TO THORIN "PICK ME UP" - SAY TO THORIN "WEST" - SOUTHWEST - WAIT (until a goblin appears) |
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Do that stats support the West then Southwest movement?
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THE MARKET MAKER ADVANTAGE
In an A v B situation (a tennis game e.g.) you want to be at the head of the queue to back A and the head of the queue to lay A (I'm assuming the cross matching bot takes care of the B alternatives) just as the actual play for a point starts. At any point during play, if one of those two bets looks bad value you cancel it and hope the good value bet is taken. e.g. A serves an ace. You cancel your lay of A but not your back of A. Suppose before the ace is served backer X attempts to match your lay of A and layer Y attempts to match your back of A. X is disappointed because by the time his bet reaches the queue your lay of A is long cancelled. Poor Y though. His lay of A is matched despite seeing A serve an ace 5 seconds before his bet hits the queue and is matched. I can't be bothered going into all the possibilities involved with that strategy. Suffice to say that, provided you cancel any bet as soon as they become bad value the strategy is a winning one. There will be cases where the value bet is already matched before you can cancel but overall you'll end up with more positive value bets than negative value bets (if both are taken you've got a winning trade). At the next point you adapt your stakes to take into account what happened at the previous point to effectively close out the previous point bets. X & Y are the fall guys in this. Never bet in running on tennis or any other flies-round-sh1te market except at neutral points. If you use the above strategy while watching for overreactions (e.g. only laying the one that's being overbet) then you'll be getting free money. |
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Back in the real world: Thorin cannot open the window.
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i was stuck in that goblin dungeon for ages
 scars still healing |
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any really good books you have read on the subject.
huh? What would you call such a book? "How to give your edge away while gambling?" maybe You've been given more useful information in your recent threads than any book is going to give you. Put in the hard hours and create a model or two and see how you get on. There's no "Froggy can't be bothered so here's a free zillion quid guide to gambling" on the shelves. |
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Just don't climb into the chest and close it brendan
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Feck, what is a "flies-round-sh1te market"?
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Investor, it's an ir market where there are many definitive odds changing moments (other than time remaining), i.e. games where the score changes regularly such as in tennis or cricket. Football on the other hand only has a few such moments (goal, sending off, injury etc.).
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I should add there's also a market maker disadvantage for football.
I price up multiple markets across different games in play at the same time. I work out implied odds, and I don't have pics. This means that when an event like a free kick on the edge of the box pushes the odds against me, I am more likely to get matched. |
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My uncle is a RANGE TRADER on here -- he's got some software he uses and he reckons it can predict VERY GOOD breakout's and breakdowns 98% of the time - not seen him in action tho
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There is a way they could make ir football such that it would be perfectly safe to bet without pics (providing you were being fed the score etc.). It involves PROVISIONAL and immediate matching of bets (i.e. no countdown involved) which only become FULLY matched if nothing occurs within the next x seconds of ACTUAL play (where x = general feed delay plus 1 or 2 secs).
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People on here don't like level playing fields though.
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Feck, wouldn't it be simpler to apply the same delay to cancelling bets as placing them?
Also I don't see how this would protect me? I'm protected against serious changes like red cards and goals, but not against more subtle ones. |
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Feck, wouldn't it be simpler to apply the same delay to cancelling bets as placing them?
That would be much the same thing as not having a delay. e.g. someone at game sees goal and submits bet, you see goal on tv 4 secs later and cancel. While you're going through the countdown other guy's bet is matched. Also I don't see how this would protect me? I'm protected against serious changes like red cards and goals, but not against more subtle ones. If there was a free kick outside the area and your bet got PROVISIONALLY matched as a result there would have to be x seconds of ACTUAL play before it would become FULLY matched. Thus scoring direct from free kick wouldn't suit other guy, ball would have to bob about for x secs then be netted. |
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That would be much the same thing as not having a delay. e.g. someone at game sees goal and submits bet, you see goal on tv 4 secs later and cancel. While you're going through the countdown other guy's bet is matched.
Sorry, that's rubbish as suspension would save you but think point in tennis or any important event that doesn't cause a suspension. I should've said in my 17:37 post it's an ir market where there are many definitive odds changing moments that don't cause suspensions i.e. games where the score changes regularly such as in tennis or cricket. |
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Ok I see what you mean.
When I mentioned the free kick on the edge of the box, I meant that just the fact that there is a free kick on the edge of the box will affect the odds, regardless of whether there is a goal or not. Let's say Man U is playing Wigan and after 87 mins the score is 0-0, if I am laying 2-0 and Man U get a free kick on the edge of the box, that could affect the odds enough to make my offer (too) good value (for someone else). |
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That's what I thought you meant Investor.
Using my method bots would be able to operate knowing only the score and players on park which might improve liquidity. |
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Lori
I've probably put in more hard hours on modelling my personal style of gambling than most, if not all, on here. So don't give me all that cr@p about being a lazy sod etc. My problem with trying to model up a trading type system is that I can't even see where to start theoretically. And it seems from the response I have gotten as to where to find some decent literature on the subject , (not to find an edge to be given away for free as you and others wrongly continue to refer to my queries) just reinforces my point. You apparently have no such foundation for your strategies. At least Investor has the basic guts to admit that he is improvising and making it up as he goes. Good for him. I like to work in a different manner. What's wrong with most of you on here.? Have I hit some nerve.. Maybe that you know in your heart that you're all trading away merrily, thinking that you're being astute. But in the long term you're just frittering away all the capital you have dedicated to your gambling activities. For sure, some of you might have hit upon some sort of successful betting system. But I would lay odds that you are position takers in the majority who have found an "edge" in their selection techniques. Or you are the Ferrengi that Feck always refers to ? Stop being so fckin precious about all this. I'm not asking for your secrets, just your well formed and mathematically supported theories. I'll do the rest for myself as necessary to form my own system, if it then looks remotely interesting concept wise. |
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Also let's be real about all this trading in and out of prices.
Effectively before BF and other exchanges came along, offering the easy capability to lay as well as bet on outcomes, it was not truly possible in a practical sense to quickly jump in and out in opposite directions. So, relatively speaking, it's all a new approach and probably still very much in the learning/experimentation stage of development. Maybe there is no good research or literature in the public domain. I don't know. I'm just looking to find out if anyone else knows. But on here, apparently no one does. Or they do, but for some unkown reason, they're not letting on. |
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Back winners, lay losers is a good trading strategy
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Feck, that wd scupper the courtsiders! I wonder why bf don't introduce it?
FATH, do you accept or not the point I made initially and that Lori restated in another way, that 'the second part of the trade' significantly 'reduces commission'? You cd model this by assuming 1) an edge and 2) a likelihood of a price moving a certain number of increments. No one is saying that it is in principle advantageous always to green or red up at whatever price. Nor was I saying that estimates of value weren't subjective. Some measure of how volatile markets are must also feature in a consideration of whether it is worthwhile to open a momentum trade. Take a market where a price has fluctuated within five price-points, then a market where it has moved within twenty-five. In your view, is it equally likely that the price will move a further three increments in the first as in the second? (This point is in a way the inverse of that made by The Investor, that reduced volatility has a value to the bettor in the events of losses.) |
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FATH, 'trading as a means of minimising comm', wh/ I talked about first of all, depends on having a position-taking edge.
The market-making strategy for those elegantly-named flies-round-**** markets is a pure trading strategy that exploits peculiarities of how the site works. Otherwise technical trading strategies like momentum, breakouts, range trading, Bollinger bands etc. all imv offer some kind of edge and will be heartily deplored by position-takers who have a non-trading edge on their particular sports. |
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And, God forbid, you could even try more than one approach at a time.
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Feck, that wd scupper the courtsiders! I wonder why bf don't introduce it?
There's no enthusiasm for fair betting inside betfair askari. It would be like having hedge funds where the guesser had a negative bonus for showing a loss. The "experts" would become rarer than dodo birds. |
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I'm not asking for your secrets, just your well formed and mathematically supported theories. I'll do the rest for myself as necessary to form my own system, if it then looks remotely interesting concept wise.
I make money by holding and trading positions during live football matches based purely on my opinion of the unfolding game - basically doing exactly what the Betfair Education Team taught when it was in operation. I have no mathematical supported theories - sorry. But I do have an excellent understanding of football and of the markets. I use several strategies. Maths plays zero part. |
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Askari
My point about trading out of profitable "good value" positions to reduce commission was that you could lose more in given away profits than you save in commission. I have stated that I see the benefit in freeing up capital if a better value proposition comes along and you have some sort of capital restraint. Someone else on here put in a a different, more straightforward way. Would you have done the trade out wager on a stand alone basis, that is if you didn't already have the open " value" position. If the answer is no, then it is probably not a good trade in any scenario. As far as trading in mkts. based on momentum measures, volatility etc, you seem to be comparing these types of things with the highly researched quantifiable measures used in large scale, sophisticated financial markets. Most gambling markets are relatively low scale, only exist for a few good hours of potential trading activety, are not usually all that sophisticated in terms of tthe skills and thought processes of the masses involved. They're just not comparable animals imo. Bayes Yes you can try all sorts of things at once I agree. Just try to sort of know why you are trying them that's all. Btw as I have said repeatedly I do think you are one of the very few that does have certain highly defined gambling skills. But even you are probably shooting from the hip in many circumstances. The really successful pro gamblers get out after they're ahead, usually after a very, very big lucky win that scared the life out of them. They then quite often go on to write self serving books about their exploits or become "advisors ". The ones that stay around too long, either go down in flames or often start cheating in some form of manner eg paying off jockeys, football players ( recently in Oz there was a prime example of this.) |
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FFS. Trading has nothing to do with "value". It's to do with guessing which way the market will move, and how far. Some believe that the markets will revert to a "value" position (by using statistical analyses), so that forms the basis of their guess.
Some people are better at guessing than others. |
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Feck, I agree w/ your remarks re bf's tolerance of people who can only be detrimental to the co.'s regular clients. My question was rhetorical.
Hedge fund managers get something like 20% of profits made on 'absolute return' strategies. This acts as a huge incentive against taking up positions that rest on an edge but are unlikely to end up in the black. The financial industry is risk-averse, subject to groupthink and invests sub-optimally b/c people want to make money and hold onto their sorry jobs above all. |
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FATH: My point about trading out of profitable "good value" positions to reduce commission was that you could lose more in given away profits than you save in commission.
Yes, you cd; and you cd also hold onto a position you liked wh/ went on to lose (tho' you cd have greened up at one stage). A rational trading strategy will show instances of both. You are not addressing the idea that bf's comm. structure favours trading over betting. Btw, I do not disagree w/ yr idea that eventually a black swan will do for us all. |
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Feck, are you helping yourself to all this "free money"? And if so, why are you telling everyone on here how you do it?
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