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FatalStatistics
07 Sep 10 14:02
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Feb 08
| Topic/replies: 805 | Blogger: FatalStatistics's blog
"Like driving a monster truck thru a minefield"
But i'll post up just my 1-0 bets from 'ye olde' spreadsheet for a bit of interest. Post up your own if you will...
Will keep track of ROI rates,
GL all.

Bulgaria U21 v Sweden U21    1-0    16.50
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Report FatalStatistics September 19, 2010 12:54 PM BST
Bradford v Gillingham    1-0    9.80   WON

2 from 47 @ 12.40

Anzhi Makhachkala v Rubin Kazan    1-0    15
St Pauli v Hamburg    1-0    15
Alta v Fredrikstad    1-0    17.50
Moss v Bryne    1-0    14.50
Silkeborg v OB    1-0    14
SonderjyskE v FC Midtjylland    1-0    13.50
Heracles v Twente    1-0    19
Report FatalStatistics September 19, 2010 1:23 PM BST
Molde v Honefoss    1-0    12.50
Stabaek v Odd Grenland    1-0    12
Report FatalStatistics September 23, 2010 10:42 AM BST
Molde v Honefoss    1-0    12.50   WON

3 from 56 @ 12.40

Hjorring v FC Nordsj    1-0    22
Report FatalStatistics September 24, 2010 1:50 PM BST
Karlsruhe v FSV Frankfurt    1-0    8.8
Drogheda v Sporting Fingal    1-0    15.50
Piacenza v Siena    1-0    11.50
Shamrock Rovers v Galway Utd    1-0    8.80

GL all.
Report Rocket to the FACE September 24, 2010 9:14 PM BST
Good stuff, keep it up.

How long are you running this one? Same number of bets as last time? Was it 1000?
Report FatalStatistics September 25, 2010 1:17 PM BST
3 from 61 @ 12.40

St Pauli v Dortmund    1-0    18.50
W Bremen v Hamburg    1-0    13
Bristol Rovers v Notts Co    1-0    11.50
Dundee Utd v St Johnstone    1-0    9.40
Lincoln v Stevenage    1-0    12

rocket , nice to hear from you, i'll run this for as long as it takes...
the old 'torture' thread ran for way over 1000.
Granted, this has not started well, but good results come to those who wait.
GL. all
Report FatalStatistics September 26, 2010 12:17 PM BST
Dundee Utd v St Johnstone    1-0    9.40   WON

4 from 66 @ 11.65

Aberdeen v Rangers    1-0    21
Excelsior v Vitesse    1-0    18
Konyaspor v Karabukspor    1-0    10
NEC Nijmegen v Feyenoord    1-0    13.50
Chievo v Lazio        1-0        9.80
Sampdoria v Udinese    1-0    10.50
Wolves v Aston Villa    1-0    10
Report FatalStatistics September 26, 2010 12:34 PM BST
Falkenbergs v Trollhattan    1-0    10.50
Stromsgodset v Rosenborg    1-0    18.50

GL all.
Report FatalStatistics September 26, 2010 12:59 PM BST
Aberdeen 1-0  after 14'  ???...
Report FatalStatistics September 27, 2010 11:14 AM BST
no cigar

KuPS v Haka    1-0    11.50
Degerfors v Jonkopings Sodra    1-0    11.50
Kasimpasa v Fenerbahce    1-0    22
Report FatalStatistics September 28, 2010 12:21 PM BST
KuPS v Haka    1-0    11.50   WON

Orebro v Kalmar FF    1-0    9.60
Auxerre v Real Madrid    1-0    20
FC Basel v B Munich    1-0    16
Report FatalStatistics September 28, 2010 9:20 PM BST
Orebro v Kalmar FF    1-0    9.60   WON


Goias v Flamengo    1-0    11
Report FatalStatistics September 29, 2010 1:01 PM BST
6 from 82  @  11.28

Rubin Kazan v Barcelona    1-0    17.50
Report FatalStatistics September 30, 2010 1:44 PM BST
CSKA Sofia v Porto    1-0    21
OB v Stuttgart    1-0    13.50
Rapid Vienna v Besiktas    1-0    11.50
Gent v Lille    1-0    13.50
Villarreal v Club Brugge    1-0    9.20

GL all.
Report tonymontana October 1, 2010 1:56 AM BST
The odds for 1-0 seem to low to make profit from, you need to get too many correct.
Report Rocket to the FACE October 1, 2010 9:49 AM BST
^ That doesn't make sense.

Unlucky with the Barca game, that would have been a good one.

When the 1-0 thread reaches its end I reckon you should do a 3-3 one Blush.
Report FatalStatistics October 1, 2010 1:34 PM BST
- give it time tonym , give it time...
thanks rocket,  ahh,  finding value in the 3-3's is very difficult... 
think this is overdue for a run of successes with the 1-0's though, maybe this weekend??...

KV Mechelen v Genk    1-0    16
Report tonymontana October 1, 2010 4:55 PM BST
Yes I realised I posted bollox after I did it.
I made a good profit last season backing 0-0's at similar odds.
Hope you have some hits soon.
Report FatalStatistics October 3, 2010 5:15 AM BST
Sibir v Rubin Kazan    1-0    17


(tonymontana , friggin 0-0's blew me apart late last season..  live n learn tho...) GL.
Report FatalStatistics October 3, 2010 12:31 PM BST
AZ Alkmaar v Heracles    1-0    10
De Graafschap v Feyenoord    1-0    14.50
Heerenveen v ADO Den Haag    1-0    17
GKS Belchatow v Lech Poznan    1-0    10.50
Elfsborg v Atvidabergs    1-0    9.80
Report FatalStatistics October 4, 2010 11:28 AM BST
GKS Belchatow v Lech Poznan    1-0    10.50   won

7 from 95 @ 11.17

Viking v Stromsgodset    1-0    12
Beira-Mar v Sp Lisbon    1-0    13
Guimaraes v Porto    1-0    17.50
Report Hbkisonhisway October 4, 2010 11:37 AM BST
are you in profit or loss?
Report FatalStatistics October 4, 2010 11:47 AM BST
as mentioned earlier this has not started well ( at a loss) but time is of the essence in CS betting and i am confident it'll rebound well.
Report FatalStatistics October 4, 2010 12:29 PM BST
FC Inter v Haka    1-0    10
Report FatalStatistics October 4, 2010 12:37 PM BST
Honka v Lahti    1-0    11.50
Sundsvall v Osters    1-0    11.00

GL all.
Report gibmark October 4, 2010 5:58 PM BST
amazing patience , not being funny , but if you layed these have you worked out profit ?,
seems to me bit of a lottery trying to predict the score ,
but from form may do better laying what you think wont happen
Report Hbkisonhisway October 4, 2010 7:57 PM BST
You have a winner today
Report FatalStatistics October 4, 2010 10:56 PM BST
FC Inter v Haka    1-0    10   WON

8 from 101 @ 11.02 (-12.7% roi )

Really just 1 good winner from being back on level terms,
'gib' - laying just doesnt sit well with me...  there is value on the backing side. And i took my own "thinking" out of my gambling long ago , to my benefit !.
Thanks and GL.
Report FatalStatistics October 4, 2010 11:10 PM BST
Drogheda v St Patricks    1-0    22
Sligo Rovers v Bray    1-0    9.80
Report BrainSurgTheFinal October 4, 2010 11:28 PM BST
why are u only posting the 1-0 bets dude?
Report Hbkisonhisway October 5, 2010 12:43 AM BST
As a guess its his stratergy
Report gibmark October 5, 2010 5:42 PM BST
"took my thinking out of gambling long ago "
lol...fantastic quote !
how do you , ..if you dont mind saying ..how do you pick your selections
Report FatalStatistics October 5, 2010 11:43 PM BST
Thanks for the interest peoples, very pleasant considering this thread is not yet profitable !!!
I am only posting the 1-0's because posting all my cs bets would be very laborious, and i've been down that road alresdy.
If you want to trawl up my 'Correct score torture' thread you will see that it has been done.
I am still using same method as then, just wanted to post up a 'Betting' thread because of the copious number of 'laying' threads about, who all claim to be value methods... and the only way to go...?
I am promoting the fact that correct score betting can be profitable if..
*you have developed a method that finds value consistently
*you have patience and discipline

And actually was hoping others would post up their own methods, selections etc  for discussions etc....
Gl all.
Report FatalStatistics October 6, 2010 1:55 PM BST
Follo v Sogndal    1-0    22
Graffin Vlasim v Plzen    1-0    24
Report BrainSurgTheFinal October 6, 2010 10:11 PM BST
yeah i remember that thread as it was 1 of the best, if you cba posting all ur bets then fair enough m8 Grin gd luck
Report FatalStatistics October 6, 2010 11:07 PM BST
cba ..  very good !!

Newells v San Jose    1-0    10.50
Report Hbkisonhisway October 6, 2010 11:41 PM BST
Did you lay out of the 1-0 Foloo match? Great odds there was 1-0 until 78th
Report FatalStatistics October 7, 2010 12:30 AM BST
no HB , i rode it out, as always.
Report FatalStatistics October 7, 2010 12:45 AM BST
(i know its not 1-0  but this is the biggest odds my value spreadsheet has poked out for  a long long time... so

Newells v San Jose   1-3  @  av.odds of 325  !!!

and lookin at match, San Jose can score , so maybe worth it..)

GL all.
Report Rocket to the FACE October 7, 2010 1:41 AM BST
Laugh love it


well, 1-0 just now, 3 more goals and you're laughin
Report FatalStatistics October 7, 2010 2:07 PM BST
6-0  it finished.... oh dear.
(be nice Rocket)

Limerick 37 v Wexford Youths    1-0    10
Report FatalStatistics October 7, 2010 10:53 PM BST
Limerick 37 v Wexford Youths    1-0    10    WON

9 from 107 @ 10.91
Report FatalStatistics October 8, 2010 12:14 PM BST
Japan v Argentina    1-0    15
Armenia v Slovakia    1-0    15.50
Kazakhstan v Belgium    1-0    18
Cyprus v Norway        1-0       11.50
Report FatalStatistics October 8, 2010 11:44 PM BST
Japan v Argentina    1-0    15   WON

10 from 111 @ 11.32

4 from last 18 has put this back on terms..
now hopefully well into black??

Panama v El Salvador    1-0    9.80
Report Rocket to the FACE October 8, 2010 11:48 PM BST
cooking with gas now bud.
Report FatalStatistics October 8, 2010 11:55 PM BST
thanks rocket.
I would like to reward the interest of forumites like yourself with a 'decent' thread...!
Report Rocket to the FACE October 9, 2010 12:22 AM BST
Don't feel under pressure from us lot, we know it's a long slog.

It's a breath of fresh air to see a thread like this. If you come out up or down it doesn't really matter [to us Laugh] although I would like to see another success like the last one. Then you can start the 3-3 one. How long would that run? Is the internet big enough to store the thread?
Report Hbkisonhisway October 9, 2010 6:09 AM BST
another winner Laugh racking them in
Report FatalStatistics October 9, 2010 7:08 AM BST
Panama v El Salvador    1-0    9.80    WON

11 from 112 @ 11.18  ( 9.8% roi  - comm)

Brentford v Oldham    1-0    8.60
Report FatalStatistics October 9, 2010 9:53 AM BST
Carlisle v Notts Co    1-0    9.60
Hereford v Port Vale    1-0    16
MK Dons v Dag and Red    1-0    9.60
Walsall v Exeter    1-0    11
Las Palmas v Betis    1-0    10.50
Triestina v Siena    1-0    10.50

GL all.
Report FatalStatistics October 9, 2010 12:09 PM BST
and..
Spain U21 v Croatia U21       1-0       8.20
Report Hbkisonhisway October 9, 2010 5:15 PM BST
Another winner Laugh
Report Maurice365 October 9, 2010 6:28 PM BST
how do you select which matches to paly?
Report FatalStatistics October 9, 2010 11:25 PM BST
Carlisle v Notts Co    1-0    9.60   WON

12 from 120 @ 11.05

USA v Poland    1-0    8.60

Maurice - its a long description, but basically i put the current markets thru my spreadsheet to give total goals and supremacy figures , then thru modified poisson, add on weight of money , and a likelihood figure , finally a figure for each outcome arises, and hey presto , if the figure is above my set point , it is a back.
Comprende?.. thanks & GL.
Report Maurice365 October 10, 2010 10:34 AM BST
sounds like a lot of manual data input
Report FatalStatistics October 11, 2010 11:53 AM BST
not at all,  (copy, paste)

Scotland U21 v Iceland U21    1-0    9.8
Brazil v Ukraine    1-0    7.6
Report FatalStatistics October 12, 2010 2:55 AM BST
Romania U21 v England U21    1-0    13.50
Faroe Islands v Northern Ireland    1-0    26
Report FatalStatistics October 12, 2010 2:12 PM BST
Oman v Chile    1-0    22
Croatia v Norway    1-0    8
Report FatalStatistics October 12, 2010 10:57 PM BST
12 from 126 @ 11.05  (Oman v Chile, not played yet)

Brasiliense v ASA    1-0    8
Coritiba v America RN    1-0    10
Report FatalStatistics October 12, 2010 11:14 PM BST
Honduras v Guatemala    1-0    8
Deportes Tolima v Banfield    1-0    8.4

GL all.
Report FatalStatistics October 13, 2010 12:59 AM BST
Albinoleffe v Frosinone    1-0    7.4
Report FatalStatistics October 13, 2010 2:30 AM BST
Mexico v Venezuela    1-0    9
Report FatalStatistics October 15, 2010 12:17 PM BST
no cigars of late !

Spartak Moscow v Alania Vladikavkaz    1-0    6.8
Widzew Lodz v Legia Warsaw    1-0    7.2
Zulte-Waregem v Club Brugge    1-0    15.50
Sporting Fingal v Galway Utd    1-0    9.60
UCD v Dundalk    1-0    11.5
Report FatalStatistics October 15, 2010 8:58 PM BST
San Lorenzo v Tigre    1-0    7.6
Quilmes v Velez    1-0    14
Report raspberrybottom October 21, 2010 4:03 PM BST
You still going with this FS?

Hope so - it's a good thread.... :)
Report FatalStatistics October 23, 2010 9:44 AM BST
- just been offline for a while...
12 from 141   @    11.05

Honka v FC Inter    1-0    10.50
Buyuksehir v Gaziantepspor    1-0    8.40
Report FatalStatistics October 23, 2010 11:58 AM BST
Frankfurt v Schalke    1-0    12.50
Nurnberg v Wolfsburg    1-0    14
Brighton v Yeovil    1-0    7.60
Chesterfield v Shrewsbury    1-0    10.50
Hamilton v St Johnstone    1-0    9.2
Hearts v St Mirren    1-0    7
Report FatalStatistics October 23, 2010 12:27 PM BST
Nottm Forest v Ipswich    1-0    8.20
Preston v C Palace    1-0    10
Swansea v Leicester    1-0    9
Watford v Scunthorpe    1-0    10
Doncaster v Sheff Utd    1-0    8.60

GL all.
Report FatalStatistics October 23, 2010 10:21 PM BST
Buyuksehir v Gaziantepspor    1-0    8.40 won

13 from 154 @    10.85

Hiroshima v Shonan    1-0    8.8
Kyoto v G-Osaka    1-0    20
Omiya v Kawasaki    1-0    14.50
Report FatalStatistics October 24, 2010 10:29 AM BST
Salamanca v Betis    1-0    11.5
Celtic v Rangers    1-0    10
Twente v ADO Den Haag    1-0    11
Bologna v Juventus    1-0    16.5
Report FatalStatistics October 25, 2010 12:28 PM BST
Brann v Kongsvinger    1-0    13
IFK Goteborg v Trelleborgs    1-0    9.2
OB v SonderjyskE    1-0    8.8
Volendam v Roosendaal    1-0    11
Sociedad v Deportivo    1-0    6.8
Porto v Leiria    1-0    7.6

(and 1 for "Rocket"...
OB v SonderjyskE   2-3 @ 70 )
GL all.
Report Rocket to the FACE October 25, 2010 12:59 PM BST
Haha, do I get a cut if it comes in [;)]
Report FatalStatistics October 25, 2010 11:02 PM BST
of course !  ( finished 1-2 )
these frikkin 1-0's starting to make me look like a mug.
just 1 in the last 50 odd,  Ridiculous.
Current stats, 13  from 167   @    10.85
Amazing how things go to the dogs as soon as you start postin' em up !  However i will not give up, i will not give in.
Fortuitously, the 0-0's been savin my bacon lately with
(0-0's , 6 from 20 @ 11.17)
Thems the swings and roundabouts !
GL All.
Report REM October 26, 2010 10:30 AM BST
FS - from what I recall from your previous thread and from what I understand of your approach - I am quite sure that this is just a break even system. I might be wrong and wouldn't want to put you off. I've asked this question before: do you know why this should work?
Report FatalStatistics October 26, 2010 2:27 PM BST
REM , nice to hear from you !
Why this or any methodology 'should work' , is purely subjective.
The proof is in the pudding.
My 'Torture' thread was a big enough pudding was it not ??

HB Koge v FC Midtjylland    1-0    21
FC Koln v 1860 Munich    1-0    8.2
G Furth v Augsburg    1-0    11
Koblenz v H Berlin    1-0    21
Heracles v Breda    1-0    10
Roda JC v NEC Nijmegen    1-0    11.50
Cottbus v Freiburg    1-0    13.50
FSV Frankfurt v Schalke    1-0    20
Kaiserslautern v Bielefeld    1-0    8.8
Aberdeen v Falkirk    1-0    9.40
Report REM October 26, 2010 3:51 PM BST
Well, I've travelled a long way down this path.

Top marks for persistence though.
Report FatalStatistics October 26, 2010 11:32 PM BST
Its a long and winding road REM  !!
but in response to your actual question...
my theory generally revolves around the undisputable fact that correct score markets are generally 'accurate',  however, surely all 17 possibilities of every single cs market cannot possibly be as accurate ??
therefore assuming some of those 17 are not accurate, value cs's could be found.
Of course i am talking over the very long term here, ie 1000's of results.

although this horrible run continues !
(just 1 from the last 60 odd)
13 from 177 @ 10.85
America MG v Santo Andre    1-0     10
Ponte Preta v Vila Nova    1-0    10.5
Report FatalStatistics October 27, 2010 2:19 PM BST
Dinamo Moscow v CSKA Moscow    1-0    16.5
Guingamp v Marseille    1-0    14.50
Spartak Moscow v Zenit St Petersburg    1-0    12
Aachen v Mainz    1-0    14.50
Ajax v Heerenveen    1-0    16
Groningen v ADO Den Haag    1-0    12.5
Report FatalStatistics October 27, 2010 2:29 PM BST
Hammarby v Kalmar FF    1-0    15
Hoffenheim v Ingolstadt    1-0    11.5
FC Zurich v Luzern    1-0    12
St Johnstone v Celtic    1-0    26
Aston Villa v Burnley    1-0    10
Report Hbkisonhisway October 27, 2010 5:45 PM BST
Bit of a bummer you missed the Romanian cup
Report FatalStatistics October 27, 2010 11:01 PM BST
I miss plenty !

coupla winners but still 1-0's well in red at mo.

Spartak Moscow v Zenit St Petersburg    1-0    @ 12
Hoffenheim v Ingolstadt      1-0    @  11.5             


15 from 190  @    10.96

Flamengo v Corinthians    1-0    10
Goias v Avai    1-0    8.2
Report FatalStatistics October 28, 2010 10:42 PM BST
Fluminense RJ v Gremio    1-0    11.5
Sao Paulo v Atletico-PR    1-0    8.2
San Luis v CF America    1-0    11
Report FatalStatistics October 29, 2010 4:53 AM BST
Kryliya Sovetov v Rubin Kazan    1-0    16.50
Bursaspor v Fenerbahce    1-0    10
Benfica v Pacos Ferreira    1-0    7.2


and as sidey,
3  ,0-0's highly recommended,  particularly the  genoa v inter  one,  something fishy there ??
Genoa v Inter    0-0    10.5
Southport v Kidderminster    0-0    11.5
Rec de Huelva v Celta Vigo    0-0    10

GL all.
Report Rocket to the FACE October 29, 2010 10:12 AM BST
Keep the faith big boy.


Had a few quid on 0-0 in the Inter game. You know what the Italians are like. Was that a spreadsheet pick or a FatalStatistics pick?
Report FatalStatistics October 29, 2010 10:36 PM BST
it was spreadsheet rocket,  bit stiff , finished 0-1 , sorry.
the other 2 were draws, just not 0-0  !!

Brasiliense v Icasa    1-0    10
Nautico v Guaratingueta    1-0    8.8
Urawa v Montedio Yamagata    1-0    6.8
G-Osaka v Kobe    1-0    9.2
Report FatalStatistics October 30, 2010 11:46 AM BST
St Johnstone v Celtic    1-0    30

( and go again Rocket if u have time... on the 0-0 @ 23+ )
Report FatalStatistics October 30, 2010 12:13 PM BST
pff..
0-1 after 9'

Kaiserslautern v Mgladbach    1-0    12
Arsenal v West Ham    1-0    11.5
Report Rocket to the FACE October 30, 2010 7:20 PM BST
Got one!
Report FatalStatistics October 31, 2010 11:17 AM GMT
Arsenal v West Ham    1-0    11.5   won

ADO Den Haag v Utrecht    1-0    15
Young Boys v Grasshoppers Zurich    1-0    11.5
Halmstads v Helsingborgs    1-0    21
AIK v Elfsborg    1-0    11.5
Valenciennes v Lille    1-0    10.5
Report FatalStatistics October 31, 2010 9:58 PM GMT
ADO Den Haag v Utrecht    1-0    15   won
Young Boys v Grasshoppers Zurich    1-0    11.5   won


18 from 210   @    11.25
almost back on terms again - onward and upward !
Report FatalStatistics October 31, 2010 10:17 PM GMT
Konyaspor v Trabzonspor    1-0    21
Blackpool v West Brom    1-0    14.5
Report FatalStatistics November 2, 2010 11:09 AM GMT
FC Copenhagen v Barcelona    1-0    29
Hapoel Tel Aviv v Schalke    1-0    14.5
Southampton v Dag and Red    1-0    9.40
Walsall v Peterborough       1-0       14.5
Report FatalStatistics November 3, 2010 1:26 AM GMT
AC Milan v Real Madrid    1-0    14
CFR Cluj v B Munich    1-0    14.5
Report FatalStatistics November 4, 2010 10:39 PM GMT
Vasco da Gama v Gremio Prudente    1-0    9.80
Report FatalStatistics November 5, 2010 11:03 AM GMT
Cracovia Krakow v Wisla Krakow    1-0    11.5
Report FatalStatistics November 5, 2010 10:15 PM GMT
Shonan v Yokohama FM    1-0    19
FC Tokyo v G-Osaka    1-0    14
Report FatalStatistics November 6, 2010 9:47 AM GMT
Frankfurt v Wolfsburg    1-0    14
Hamburg v Hoffenheim    1-0    11
Mgladbach v B Munich    1-0    29
Barnsley v Leicester    1-0    13.5
Report Rocket to the FACE November 6, 2010 10:48 AM GMT
Fatal, have you not seen the thread in the Footy forum re: German games not ending 1-0 Laugh


Good luck buddy.
Report Rocket to the FACE November 27, 2010 3:15 PM GMT
you hitting this on the head?

I was considering doing one as well. Need to refine the plan a bit beforehand.
Report FatalStatistics November 29, 2010 1:30 AM GMT
sorry Rocket,  yes have read the german games thread..
and no havent hit this on the head ,  just not had as much time of late to bet and or post up, but still figured i better make sure of my method again before posting any more up , because these frickin 1-0's have made a mockery of me to this point of this thread.
By all means use this thread for your method etc if you wish, or start a newie, whatever,  i'll be keepin an eye out ..  and postin when i can.
Best o luck with your thinking's , hope you tread carefully thru the minefield !!
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