Laying the correct score - a way forward

I'll try and talk you out of it then

Trouble is nobody expects Mediocre Teams to get 0-0s at Barca or United, so the odds you lay those scores at will be very high indeed, so high that when a 0-0 does happen it will likely wipe out all your profits and more.

Backing or laying,if you dont have an edge first,  i dont think you can ever beat the book percentage. Be very careful - trial first...  good luck.

dead easy if you know how

Good luck,
Would avoid champions league and laying unq in Chelsea/Livpool games as the 4-4 draw was in that comp was it not?
Stick to traditional leagues to find your edge.

Stalls that are laid out efficiently with regard to the wares of future stalls will easily defeat you o weary wanderer.No peace will be found here

Russian roulette is probably safer. I don't believe anyone can have an edge in correct scores, there are too many improbables. How many times will you see sitter goals missed, goalie miracle saves, missed penalties, penalties given for nothing, goals that 'never were'... and goals that should have been (Eng v Germany for example)... the list is endless. (I'll leave out the 'dubious' matches).
I wish you well, I've been doing cs lays for a couple of seasons, and this year have just kept my head above water... last year was pretty good though. Try it by all means, but you have been warned!

Make it easy for yourself by just backing anything that
is 1.05 or less, as it may save time or pointless study.

Tobermoney - I don't think there was a 0-0 at either Old Trafford or Camp Nou last season.

If laying C/S at an average price of 15.0 with a view to winning £100 per game, I would need to win the bet 15 consecutive times before reaching the point where I could afford to lose one and still not be in an overall deficit position.

15 bets @ odds of 15.0 = £1,500.
One loss = -£1,500.

The problem would be if I suffered two losses in fairly quick succession, especially as my starting bank would be £3,000.

Appreciate all your comments and advice. Just think that, given all the variances that apply in football (spot on, Johnizere), it HAS to be easier to bet on what WON'T happen than what we think will.

Plechy Joined: 27 Dec 05
If laying C/S at an average price of 15.0 with a view to winning £100 per game, I would need to win the bet 15 consecutive times before reaching the point where I could afford to lose one and still not be in an overall deficit position.

15 bets @ odds of 15.0 = £1,500.
One loss = -£1,500.


15 bets would return 1425 assuming 5% comms


Correct score laying can be a goldmine for all the reasons johnizere has mentioned, especially in running

Being realistic Plechy, you won't last very long risking that sort of amount of your bank (btw, you won't be able to cover a 0-0 lay on Barcelona with that size bank to return 100 quid).

Personally I risk 0.5% of my betting bank per lay, but I do have many lays on at once. If you're placing one lay at a time, I wouldn't want to be risking more than 10% of the bank. Far more sensible to aim for small steady gains, as 2 or 3 hits in a row is not uncommon. And don't think you're doing well just because you don't get hit for a month!

al 1 arm - take your point about laying Barca. Odds will often be prohibitive.

Your strategy of spreading your bets around different games seems even rikskier though. The more games you're involve in, so the risk of one of them going pear-shaped must increase.

I plan to get involved in mainly live games, which are obviously much easier to monitor and (if necessary) react to if things look dodgy. By restricting my field to English and Spanish leagues, that would mean a couple games on a Saturday, plus 3-4 more on the Sunday and one or two in midweek.

One piece of advice is don't get into bets that are one-way, such as lay 0-0, unless you have done your analysis and think you have a definite edge.

Otherwise TRADE the CS market and know you can always get out if the "unexpected" occurs e.g. 1-man-team liverpool playing on fire and then gerrard goes over on his ankle after 15min and is replaced by lucas.

Plechy, not riskier because I don't try to make large amounts, thus I don't lose large amounts. I just aim for a small percentage long term to beat commission.

I'm betting on the cs market and I'm doing quite good so far. I have a set goal of winning 200-250 euros/week. I don't have a big bank so I lay the scores of 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, unquoted. I actually aim to win 15 euros net from each game and I choose 3-4 games/day now that there are midweek games. I avoid friendlies like the plague, and I tend to choose games which I can also bet in running. Let's say if I have a bet on lay 1-1 and the underdog is 1-0 up I usually try to get out of it for a small loss.

Here's a small example of what my p+l looks like:


Soccer: €117.76 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  €117.76

Soccer     Showing 1 - 9 of 9 markets
Market                                            Start time              Settled date                   Profit/loss (€)
Soccer / Kashima v Kobe : Correct Score             31-Jul-10 13:00     31-Jul-10 15:06     15.22
Soccer / Niigata v FC Tokyo : Correct Score             31-Jul-10 13:00     31-Jul-10 14:55     15.22
Soccer / Bohemians v St Patricks : Correct Score     30-Jul-10 21:45     30-Jul-10 23:34     15.22
Soccer / Standard v Zulte-Waregem : Correct Score     30-Jul-10 21:30     30-Jul-10 23:24     15.22
Soccer / Spartak Nalchik v Amkar : Correct Score     30-Jul-10 20:00     30-Jul-10 21:53     -4.00
Soccer / KuPS v AC Oulu : Correct Score             30-Jul-10 19:00     30-Jul-10 20:52     15.22
Soccer / Galatasaray v OFK Belgrade : Correct Score     29-Jul-10 21:00     29-Jul-10 22:55     15.22
Soccer / Molde v Stuttgart : Correct Score             29-Jul-10 19:30     29-Jul-10 21:20     15.22
Soccer / Beroe Stara Za v Rapid Vienna : Correct Score     29-Jul-10 19:00     29-Jul-10 20:52     15.22

I believe it can be profitable but it's a market where you have to go slow and easy

Soccer / Spartak Nalchik v Amkar : Correct Score     30-Jul-10 20:00     30-Jul-10 21:53     -4.00

for example I had layed 0-0 and got out of it at half time because I didn't feel confident. Better take a 4 euro loss rather than lose 100

weren't SN up 2-0 at half time?

Now that you mention it yes... I had:



Soccer > Spartak Nalchik v Amkar : Correct Score     Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections
Selection     Odds     Stake(€)     Bid type     Placed     Profit/loss(€)
0 - 0     8.40     20.00     Back     30-Jul-10 18:35     -20.00
0 - 0     8.80     16.00     Lay     30-Jul-10 17:39     16.00

*Average odds: On Off     Back subtotal:     -20.00
Lay subtotal:     16.00
Market subtotal:     -4.00
Commission :     0.00

hmm.. don't know what happened there..
Net Market Total:     -4.00

Ignore that game.. I went out of it before the goal went in :-) . Bad example :-)

I have to say Greeky, 8 CS lays right is indulging absolute fantasy if you think thats a good example of a good run and you have 'cracked it'.  Especially when you have only made £117 and you are playing to £100.

I'm just expressing my opinion. I didn't say that I've cracked it. I just aim to get 200-250 euros per week but I'm equally happy if I get 100. Since Monday I was 200 up and I just got a hit of 130 on 1-1 copenhagen - aalborg. That means that I'm up 70 euros this week. I'm not planning becoming a millionaire from this, but even if I manage to squeeze 400-500 euros a month out of this market I'll be happy. It might happen or it may not.

My post was just my 2 cents on Plechy's message. I stated my opinion that in this market it's better to have a target and build slowly and I just posted an example of my p+l Now.. why on earth you feel like you have to be ironic is beyond me. If that gets you off though.. be my guest.

By the way English is not my native language so if you fil laik you huv to comment on my gramar and spelin be my gest!

Take it easy, your English is very good.  Although irony is not the word you are looking for - i'm not sure what word would go as I was not aware I was being anything.

Producing a P/L of nine results on CS lays proves absolutely nothing either way, was my point, and pointless for you to do so.

I do however invite you to start a thread detailing your lays and after a long run people will be able to review, analyse and make up their own minds based on your helpfulness?  I hope you agree, afterall, that is what you were trying to do here, yes?

From one betfairian to another GL

"8 CS lays right is indulging absolute fantasy." This does sound a bit ironic in my opinion. If you didn't mean anything by it I apologize. [:x]

I just produced 3 days worth of lays just to show the way I'm playing. Of course i don't claim it's perfect or that I don't have hits. It was just an example to demonstrate my style of play.

I was planning on putting my bets on if there's a laying score market for the 10/11 season once premiership gets underway. What I was trying to do with my post was not to say "hey look at me, I'm a pro player who doesn't get anything wrong", but to say to the OP that in my opinion it's better to have a target and build on it, because you will get hit at some point.

Good luck with your bets as well. [:D]

I wouldn't bother with joining another thread - start your own.

The trouble with the other threads with multipul posters is that your own post is diluted between 4 or 5 other posts and makes it very hard to follow/keep track of the flow of bets and where you are upto.

Guess I can give it a go. Might start it from tomorrow after tomorrow morning's coffee and study [:D]

I'll keep an eye out for it

ok but don't bet your house on the selections

greeky7 - I appreciate your input. I take your point about reducing my stakes from £100 down to the £15 per lay you are doing now. My problem is I lack patience, but it's something I MUST learn to achieve success here.

Must say, the games you're mentioned as examples would be untouchable for me. I don't have the time or inclination to study lesser (non UK)leagues or teams involved in the prelim rounds of the CL, where the dark spectre of corruption lurks in every dressing room.

I also take the valid points made about focusing on in-play games where it's possible to bow out and, if necessary, 'red up' to accept a damage limitation loss on a game.

This is not something I've just dreamed up and am about to dive into. I paper trialled it at the end of last season and suffered two losses in about 30 games, which would have left me in profit had there been real money involved.

In the meantime, plse keep your comments coming. GL to all.

So you paper trialed it on 30 games! You can't tell anything from that. You need to download results from a data base, and get the starting odds from betexplorer, to give yourself some sort of idea of the odds of each correct score.  Because your winning games will vastly outnumber your losing games, even 1000 results won't be enough to be able to tell. So you will have to go back up to 10 years to get a sufficient number of results. (I don't know how you are going to make selections on results that you already know.) I have said this to save you from disaster, I am not in any way belittling your efforts or doubting your ability.

I can't see how anyone can study the form of certain teams or leagues in an attempt to predict scores accurately enough to defeat commission, and succeed. To my mind an educated guess on the final score of any match is just that - a guess. The market is largely accurate at kick off, so why would a lay of any score produce a long term profit?

Marksman - what the paper trial told me was that I was right 28 times out of 30 and was in profit!

Ten years! You could say the same about researching any bet, couldn't you?

It's not about stats, it's about combined luck and judgement. As always!

al 1 arm - the point is, I'm not predicting the result of a game.

I'm LAYING C/S, so predicting what the result WILL NOT be! For example, I don't have a clue how many Man Utd will beat West Ham by at Old Trafford next season, but, knowing Hammers' defence and the quality they will be up against, I'm condident the game won't end 0-0, so I lay 0-0.

Are you saying that if I can win 30 consecutive bets, I won't be defeating commission or succeeding.

What was your average lay odds Plechy? Any greater than 15.0 and you would have made a loss, but as Marksman said you can't draw any conclusion at all from that short period, sticking a pin in could easilly win 30 out of 30.

al 1 arm - I managed to dig out the Excel analysis I did when paper trialing it between Feb & early April this year (see below if it's pasted correctly). Using notional stakes of £100 each time, it shows a total deficit of -£200. Basically, I got it wrong twice in 28 picks.

It wasn't something I was taking too seriously at the time (they say you can't replicate the real thing), so I was picking games at random, without much thought and no research and not on a frequent basis.I would certainly have given it much more careful thought had there really been £100 on the line esach time.

In the case of the 0-0 CL 2nd leg draw between Salzburg & Liege that 'cost' me, I didn't watch it (the first leg had ended 3-3) and, had I done so, would probably have cut my losses before the final whistle by trading out to an all-red position - possibly even at half-time.

I did watch the other 'loser' - Colchester v Brighton - live on Sky. Sod's Law - it was the first time these two teams had shared a goalless draw in 42 years! Only the second time that BH&A had failed to score away all season. So much for stats!

                        Bet     Odds            Stake   P&L
Everton v Man Utd    Lay 1-1    7.2 at 1-1    £100    £100
Arsenal v Sunderland    Lay 0-0    23 at KO    £100    £100
Newc v PNE            Lay 2-2    24 at KO    £100    £100
Norw v Soton            Lay 0-0    20 at KO    £100    £100
Barca v Racing            Lay 0-0    32 at KO    £100    £100
Real Mad v Villarreal    Lay 0-0    38 at KO    £100    £100
Man Utd v West Ham    Lay 0-0    24 at KO    £100    £100
Valencia v Brugge (EC)    Lay 0-0    24 at KO    £100    £100
Wolfsburg v Villar'l    Lay 0-0    18.5 at KO    £100    £100
RB Salzburg v Liege    Lay 0-0    16.5 at KO    £100    -£1,550
Barca v Malaga            Lay Mal    34 at KO    £100    £100
Soton v Hudd            Lay 0-0    14.5 at KO    £50    £50
Colchester v Brighton    Lay 0-0    12.5 at KO    £100    -£1,150
WBA v Sheff Wed            Lay 0-0    21 at KO    £50    £50
Arsenal v Porto            Lay 0-0    14.5 at KO    £100    £100
Arsenal v Porto            Lay 1-1    11.00 at 1-0    £100    £100
Man Utd v AC Milan    Lay 0-0    19 at KO    £100    £100
Man Utd v AC Milan    Lay 1-0    12.5 at 1-0    £100    £100
Real Mad v Lyon (CL)    Lay 0-0    24 at KO    £100    £100
Valencia v Bremen (EC)    Lay 0-0    16 at KO    £100    £100
Juve v Fulham (EC)    Lay AU    12.5 at KO    £100    £100
Man Utd v Fulham    Lay 0-0    16.5 at KO    £100    £100
Sunderland v Man City    Lay 0-0    12.5 at KO    £100    £100
Villarreal v Xerez    Lay 0-0    18.5 at KO    £100    £100
Barca v Valencia    Lay 0-0    28 at KO    £100    £100
Valladolid v Real Mad    Lay 0-0    27 at KO    £100    £100
Arsenal v Barca CL QF1    Lay 0-0    15.5 at KO    £100    £100
Valencia v At Mad (EC)    Lay 0-0    17.5 at KO    £100    £100
                                            Total P&L - £200

From the above, I can see a fundamental flaw in this betting strategy, but that is irrelevant as you want to believe, despite previous failures.  Good luck anyway.

The actual loss there would be £325, as Clacher said above.

Commission is the long term killer!

You're opening line was "shoot me down, talk me out of it", my best advice is to go ahead but use £2 stakes instead of £100. If you make progress every month then increase stakes very slowly, but I honestly don't think you have anything to go on based on this thread, and I don't think you will succeed. The worst thing you could do is go full steam ahead with £100 stakes IMO.

Plechy, the most successful run I've seen at laying CS was jimbobjones (I think the poster was called) who had a run of approx. 91 games without a loss. But, he was laying 0-1, 2-0, 3- 1 etc and not simply 0-0.
I also suspect you will hit more bullets with the 0-0.

What impressed me was his staking plan and discipline.

Bank of £ 1,000.
After 5 correct results he would bank £ 500 profit and start again at £ 1,000.
Doesn't matter if you use £ 10 or £ 1,000 - keep banking.

You will get hit no matter how good your research is.
But he just needed the first 10 right and he was in the clear.

Good luck anyway.

Marksman - if you can see a fundamemtal flaw, then please enlighten me and others. I don't pretend to know all the answers. This is what debate and threads like this are meant to be for, isn't it? Whether I agree with your views or not, they are most certainly not irrelevant.

al 1 arm - you keep on about commission being the killer, but commission is only paid on winning bets, so what's the problem? I win 20, 30, 40 on the trot and pay commission on those wins. I'd love to be paying £50k in commission! As I said previously, I agree with you that a more restrained staking plan would be advisable, especially at the start.

Roger - You'll see from my above trial, I wasn't only laying 0-0. What I tended to do then is lay 0-0 in games involving attack-minded teams that have a proven record for scoring goals - eg Barca, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Villareal, WBA, Man City, Southampton, Valencia. The benefit of tergeting games involving these teams is that, 26 times out of 28, one goal was enough to clinch the bet...rather than a different score that could have prolonged the agony over the 90 mins.

I appreciate, though, that there has to be flexibility depending on the teams involved and the circumstances (eg, if the need for one team is greater than that of the other).

Al1arm here, commission is an enormous obstacle Plechy, I think you under estimate it vastly. For many good sensible punters it's the difference between winning and losing - make 1k and lose 1k and they're £50 down, then do it over and over again. Most on here will never defeat it.

Paying 50k in commission doesn't mean you'll have a profit to show for it, it means you'll more than likely be 50k down.

From what I can see, the flaw is that you have made 28 bets, had only 2 losses and still ended up losing. Suppose you had lost on 4 or 5 occasions: Then you would have lost even more. Its no good putting losing games down to "sods law", because you have still end up losing money.  And this idea that you would have cut your loses on the other losing game, if only you had been watching it, seems to be an invention of yours, created after the result had become known. If you really were going to red up on this game, how many others would you have done the same with when they were 0-0 at half time? Once you start doing that, you will start getting it wrong, and getting frustrated and ending up even poorer.

"OK, so shoot me down and please talk me out of it..."


You should be grateful that everyone on this thread has done this.Somehow though,I'm thinking that you don't want to listen.

Thanks Trev & Marksman - fair points well made.

With this bet, the key seems to be dodging bullets long enough to get yourself well in front - a run of 40/50 games without a loss - and hoping for long gaps between the losses.

By using smaller, less damaging stakes, I remain convinced it can be done and will try my luck from the start of the English season next weekend.

Thanks to all for your comments.

Plechy - I think it can be done if you study hard to get an edge and look for the value.

However, there will never be value in laying the 0-0. The odds on BF will always be longer than they should be.

Why? Because people are queuing up to lay the 0-0 for the reason that you mentioned yourself in this thread - once a goal goes in they can sit back and relax.

"However, there will never be value in laying the 0-0. The odds on BF will always be longer than they should be."

Well there's your edge then !

TTT - yes, it had occurred to me that there might be value in backing the 0-0 on BF. I guess there might be a small long-term prifit in there.

Not my cup of tea though.

I've studied tens of thousands of 0-0's and can say that's not strictly true Nick. There are many 0-0 backers on here too, and I would say the price tends to shorten before kick off more times than it drifts. An extreme example, but this afternoon the 0-0 in AC Milan v Lyon was trading at 13.5 30 minutes before kick off, down to 10.5 at kick off.

Plechy, if you're going ahead it's good practice to ask for your price several ticks below where it's trading, or wait until kick off and lay several ticks below after the suspension, never take what's on offer!

I am a bit surprised no one has yet mentioned the *Laying Correct Score Market 09/10" thread - I'd suggest everyone intending to go into CS laying should read it from start, especially Dfcironmans' postings, a punter who's got my greatest respect, and from whose experience I've learned a lot, although he claims he's got no edge re CS lays [;)]

al 1 arm Joined: 19 Jul 07
Replies: 35 01 Aug 10 19:18   
and I would say the price tends to shorten before kick off more times than it drifts. An extreme example, but this afternoon the 0-0 in AC Milan v Lyon was trading at 13.5 30 minutes before kick off, down to 10.5 at kick off.

It just follows other markets doesn't it?

There is hardly any value laying 0-0 at kick-off. Odds will drop steadily the longer it remains goalless (obviously). The crux is knowing when to enter the market!
Take this evenings game at Brann v Molde, 0-0 at KO was around 25's... still 0-0 at half time and has dropped to 5.1/5.3. This game promised goals, overs as well... but this is football!
I said earlier in the thread that there is no edge to be had in cs laying, and I stick by it. It is purely guesswork, the most uncanny scores keep cropping up all the time.

"With this bet, the key seems to be dodging bullets long enough to get yourself well in front - a run of 40/50 games without a loss - and hoping for long gaps between the losses."

You'll be extremely lucky to achieve that, or even half of it, at level stakes you need runs of at least 10 to keep ahead, as 1 hit will put you back to square one. 2 hits and......

I lay cs all the time, just for the fun of it, keeps me off the streets as they say!
This year has been fruitless, going round in circles, just a few quid profit in a couple of hundred bets, no harm done. Last year was much better, about 800 up on the year. It can be done, but you really do need the luck.

I forgot to add that it may be better value trading the 0-0, backing at kick off, and taking profit (3 or 4 ticks) when you can. This is the 2% magic figure everyone talks about. I've been looking at this, but as a small time punter, my impatience gets the better of me. gl.

John, it's not my thing but I know many punters trade the naturally dropping markets, how they make that pay I'll never know.

Rocket, as you know all the markets work pretty tightly together, so it isn't necessarily following the others as they're following it too :)

Berbafan, I would recommend that thread too as an example of what not to do if you want to survive long term. I like DFC and I don't mean any offence, but his chasing is horrendous.

al 1 arm, steel gonads required trading 0-0. it only takes one second to score a goal on here, as we all know. It's knowing when to take the profit.. he who hesitates etc..
Also it depends on what you want out of this, profitwise. Some (like me) are happy with a couple of quid a game... others won't be happy unless it's much, much more.

As for DFC, I doubt there's many who put in the hours of study/effort as he does, win or lose, at least he's a grafter. I wonder why he's disappeared from the cs thread without saying a word?. That's his business, and good luck to him.

al1arm, it's just that I read your post as meaning 0-0 came in a good bit when really they must all have done?

al 1 arm & john - Like your advice about waiting for the price to drop, even though the early goal will intervene on occasions. Saying that, if the underdog goes 1-0 up within 3 mins, laying 1-0 comes into play, too.

john - like you, I don't have the patience or inclination to try and 'nick' two or three quid from a 90-min game on the strength of a few tick movements. I'd like to make at least £20 a match, but would never risk more than £100.

You mention 'guesswork' but isn't that what we're all doing anyway? People can wrap it up in mythical phrases like 'edge' and studying stats/form, etc, and of course a little research can often go a long way (especially with the gee-gees). But at the end of the day, we are all in the hands of the laps of the gods.

I've tried all sorts of different approaches to football betting over the past 5 years and show a loss over the whole period. I keep bouncing back, but it's usually two steps forward and three back. Just can't crack it.

That's why I see the CS market as the best option. Of course, you will still be stuffed by the occasional crazy, ineplicable result but there is the real potential to build a decent bank - to win a couple of thousand a month would be my long-term target.

Let's take Barca as a classic example of what I;m trying to say. Most of us know they will win most of their matches (17 out of 18 at home last season, I think). We don't know by what score, but we have a very, very strong belief (and the stats to back it up) that it will not be 0-0. I believe they have been involved in only one La Liga goalless draw in the last TWO SEASONS (76 games). I'd rather risk laying 0-0 when Barca is playing than take a stab at predicting the 1x2 market, or another football market.

Barca at home laying 0-0 1/14 /1/20 Average you would not lay at that price Plechy or would you sorry pre match

Of course DFCIRONMAN says he has no edge - as he doesn't!  It's great big guessing with a bit of luck thrown in.  Luck being the fact that you hope that the game goes to plan regarding what the statistics say, yet they rarely do.

Plechy Joined: 27 Dec 05
Replies: 80 01 Aug 10 22:16 

You mention 'guesswork' but isn't that what we're all doing anyway? People can wrap it up in mythical phrases like 'edge' and studying stats/form, etc, and of course a little research can often go a long way (especially with the gee-gees). But at the end of the day, we are all in the hands of the laps of the gods.



You do realise that an edge can mean a phenomenon that happens in a certain market, either per game or over the course of a season that allows someone to make guaranteed profits, and they do.  There is no guesswork involved, it is pure maths.  Often it is not scalable though.

Very true Wedged, the attraction of c/s laying to many is that they appear to be winning regularly, but it's all an illusion and of course the losing streaks will be devastating eventually, both mentally and financially.

Sevey, you won't lay Barca home 0-0's at those odds, checking back through my records their price last season seems to vary from 30.0 to 80.0, with an average around 36.0 ish at kick off. I haven't checked on any stats sites, but they appeared to have a lot of matches that stayed goalless for at least the first 20 minutes, might be something worth while in that.

I believe they have been involved in only one La Liga goalless draw in the last TWO SEASONS (76 games)

2 last season, away to Valencia and Espanol.

Most of the replies (well nearly all) confirm what I have been thinking all along.

a way forward? a step backwards if you ask me

'The odds on BF will always be longer than they should be'  Not always..especially if it's 0-0 at half time..lay it then, at odds of 4.5 ish instead of 13 @ kickoff

whether or not laying a correct score is value or not is subjective.  It may work for some and not for others.  One thing which people seem to be doing here though with their discussions is that they are putting every match into the same category.

After the odds are up they should be looked at to see if their is value in laying or backing but EACH MATCH must be analysed on its own.  The odds for nil all for example have nothing to do with another match's correct score market, all the matches and odds are independent.  That doesn't mean to say that the market may have it spot on.


To dismiss laying a correct score and saying its impossible to get an edge ( like Wedged has said ) is wrong but also to say its easier to get an edge like the OP is suggesting is equally as wrong.

al 1 arm:

"The market is largely accurate at kick off"

How do you know this for each football match?

Cheers & Godd Luck.

*Good

BotD, because the market is everyones collective opinion, it's around 100%, and it tally's with all the other markets for that match. How could you then say it isn't largely accurate, unless you have some information that nobody else has? If you do, when you apply your information to the market you won't have any effect if you use small stakes anyway, and if you use large stakes you'll move the market so that it's still accurate. (I can confuse myself sometimes) :)

Dirtycashmoney, there's been no value in laying 0-0's at half time so far this year, so if you've made that pay you must have a good or lucky selection process.

shrewdbury Joined: 25 Sep 09Replies: 3448 02 Aug 10 14:44   


I know what Kenilworth means about guessing, and it's a phrase we all use.

But I disagree a bit about the 'common knowledge' issue, as it's not just what knowledge you have (stats, news, form etc etc) but also what you do with it that makes a difference. There are so many ways to use knowledge and therefore the 'edge' can be in the processing of information not just the information itself.
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dlarssonf Joined: 05 Mar 08
Replies: 3381 02 Aug 10 12:14   


whether or not laying a correct score is value or not is subjective.  It may work for some and not for others.  One thing which people seem to be doing here though with their discussions is that they are putting every match into the same category.

After the odds are up they should be looked at to see if their is value in laying or backing but EACH MATCH must be analysed on its own.  The odds for nil all for example have nothing to do with another match's correct score market, all the matches and odds are independent.  That doesn't mean to say that the market may have it spot on.


To dismiss laying a correct score and saying its impossible to get an edge ( like Wedged has said ) is wrong but also to say its easier to get an edge like the OP is suggesting is equally as wrong.
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Some good posts on this thread and on dannymark thread IMO.....

What is the liquidity like on the Correct Score market? For example, if I had 100k to risk, would I be able to lay a 100 to 1 correct score? I'm assuming Premiership, La Liga, Serie A and Champions League have best liquidity.

Easilly on those leagues. If you look at everyday matches like Jaro, kicking off now, liquidity is low at 24k matched across all the c/s scores. 3-3 and 0-3 are trading at around 100/1 and the layers have a liability of around 40k.

A few matches have virtually no liquidity at all, but they can be good for making a market as the match progresses.

0-0 layers win in the first minute on that match!

I can see how people might make a good profit from this market.

Cheers Trevh.

I was just thinking that there maybe some occasions when various Correct Scores and HT Correct Scores are priced up 'wrong'.

However, as someone may have already mentioned this could only be by 1 or 2 ticks and so exploitation of this would be minimal.

FWIW - I really enjoy laying CS lalthough I have certainly had my hits and isn't what you would call my 'bread and butter'....

Good luck - it's good to read the differing views on this market.

Cheers.

The current match - St Johnstone v Bolton is an interesting 0-0, and quite rare, in that punters are laying the living hell out of the 0-0. It was 13.5 at kick off, 20 minutes later it's still out to 14.5! Now starting to drop, sometimes they plummet like a ****s draws (in correction).

"The market is largely accurate at kick off"

Total and utter rubbish. You frequently get mug gambles on the run up to the start with no basis other than it's the last game on sky and everyone wants to back Barca.

Turtleshead, are you implying that nobody else knows that? If others know that too, they take advantage of the mug prices, and what happens when they do - the price corrects.

Good stuff, lads.

One point I'd like to make is that although I earlier used Barca as a typical example of an attacking team that would usually appeal in laying 0-0 in the C/S market, I'd also be looking to target other teans for other reasons.

For example, when Birmingham won, it was usually by a low scoring margin (1-0). But because their defence was also often hard to break down, you would have to consider them good candidates for a lay of Unquoted. From memory, I think Fulham were also in this category in the PL until the latter stages of the season.

It would obviously be madness to just lay 0-0 willy-nilly without studying recent form and trends, and without considering other good opportunities in the CS market.

Trev - Don't think the example you've given there with St Johnstone & Bolton is relevant. Friendlies are a notorious minefield, with players unfit or not bothered, and managers chopping and changing with unlimited subs throughout the game.

I intend to stick almost exclusively to league games (England & Spain only, which is what I think I know best and which are most easily followed through Sky TV's live coverage)and will hopefully be able to resist starting until every team has had at least 2 or 3 games, to see if patterns are emerging and players have had more time to settle into new teams and playing systems.

Plechy, as you are going to go ahead with this fearlessly, despite the good advice people have given you to the contrary, here is a suggestion:  I have a database of results in a spreadsheet going back to 1998. I have noticed that the time when teams have most difficulty scoring goals is when they have been disappointed. The most disappointing thing that can happen to a Premier League team is being knocked out of Europe. Teams knocked out of Europe will underperform in 50% of their next games in the League, but will only exceed expectation on 33% of occasions. On the other 17% of occasions the teams performed as would be expected. In the majority of these cases of underperforming, the team failed to score, or only scored once, whereas their defences remained solid. Just for this one game, teams seemed to lose their attacking flair. Therefore, these games are potential bullets that you will have to dodge.

Sorry Marksman but this is football not a financial market. You can talk about trends all day long but really it's about what happens on the day and who wants it more.

Avocado - You can WANT it as much as you like....but without the talent to achieve it you will not win.......

This is the "problem" we have in UK.....too many players WANT it without the ability or brains to achieve .......so it is far more than just "who wants it on the day"......and stats do come into it ......

We have festered players who WANT the ball ....but when it comes to them ...they cannot control the ball ....and don't have technique to pass...cross ...dribble .....header  etc etc ....but they shout GIVE ME THE BALL ....repetitively .....then when they get it ...they have no idea what to do with it!


A bit like ENGLAND in World Cup.........

Some people on here overestimate the importance of stats in football. Of course you need to know the historical data to get a feel for a fixture but there's no need to go into so much detail and identify supposed "trends" that don't really exist.

OK then ....what happened to LA GALAXY v CHICAGO.....

If you BRIEFLY examined the FACTS re LA results up to the match .....and also CH stats in recent games.....the odds were well in favour of backing CH.......

Of course you had to interpret that ....and then see the value in bet.......


The market was well "wrong" in that match........

So don't underate stats....they can help in weighing up a match.....

BOLTON for example last night....were MATCH FIT ......and ST J were playing first match for a while.....so was very likely BOLTON would win game towards end of game when ST J tired ...and STAS helped with that one.....

STATS even ...........................

Mind you ...if a referee decides to allow 6/7 minutes extra time in a match ...allowing a team to score with last kick in match......STATS cannot allow for that .....ref wanted a draw....and he got one[:p]

Why would you want to back a team like Bolton? They are sh1t.

To make PROFIT .......

Plechy - Why STAKE the same amount on every game?


Surely you gotta take into account the "value" in the bet?

Plechy :   
Trev - Don't think the example you've given there with St Johnstone & Bolton is relevant. Friendlies are a notorious minefield, with players unfit or not bothered, and managers chopping and changing with unlimited subs throughout the game.

I mentioned it because it's a good example of getting a free lay for 20 minutes. The layers were piling in money and you could lay 1 tick above them, then back it back as the plummet was due for 20 minutes free exposure.

I don't follow teams stats myself, but I like Marksman's views at 23.51, that's the sort of thing that I imagine can be a good edge.

I prefer not to make any judgement about teams or form, and not make any guesses about who's going to win or whether it will be high scoring or low scoring. Basically I don't want to get involved in prediction making at all, and I just follow a set of rules based on my own records of correct score odds, so it doesn't matter to me who's playing who. I guess that goes against the grain of most punters beliefs.

Hi DFC, I'm a great believer in level stakes at all times, every bet I make is with the same amount. Can you honestly say you win more times on your higher rated value bets than your lower rated ones? If that's the case, you may aswell just play the higher rated ones?

Marksman - I agree with your post-Euro match trend observation and it's definitely one to guard against. Even if the EPL team has won away in Europe, we've all seen often enough how a long haul trip can leave them jaded the following weekend.

DFCIronman - Welcome. As I said earlier, I'll be looking to make at least £20 from each lay bet, so I've already acknowledged the merits in adjusting stakes where appropriate.

Trev - agreed that it doesn't matter which teams are involved. But when you say you don't make predictions or apply any guesswork in your betting, how can that be so? Surely no bet is a cast iron certainty and, at the end of the day, all any of us is ever doing on here is making judgements and predictions; guessing one outcome and opposing another. That's why it's called gambling.

Also concur with the point (think it was trev on the previous page) who said there is more value to be found in waiting to lay 0-0 some minutes AFTER KO, as the price begins to tumble. There will inevitably be games involving the likes of Barca, Arsenal, etc, where a very early goal will be scored (Arsenal v Celtic a typical example) and the chance missed, but it may well be worth accepting that for the sake of long-term survival.

plechy, there is another method that requires just one goal, and can be achieved at a much lower liabilty...surely just lay the draw? give yourself some max odds, 3.6 say, lay to win a couple of hundred. goal goes in, immediately trade out for even amounts, dont wait for the odds to get more favourable or anything like this, just straight away. you will achieve similar profits to your 0-0 lay, without the 1500+ layed out. the key is to find evenly matched teams (draw price lower) - if you lay the draw in say west brom away to man utd, and west brom score first, the odds might not move that much. also much easier options for trading out if things arent looking great.

Avocado Joined:   
'Why would you want to back a team like Bolton? They are sh1t.'

Because they were playing St.Johnstone.

bacontrout (05.00) - Good call, I quite like the sound of that. This could avoid a lot of nervous angst.

The positive flipside to your Man U-WBA example is that if Man U take the lead, I I could then easily 'green-out' (no liabilities) by BACKING the draw at very good odds to lock in guaranteed profit.

Thanks to all for comments and advice.

Hey Pletchy, have you not used Betfair much in the past?

Just a quick one on the last post Plechy, it may be a better option to go draw no bet on games like that, after Man U take the lead, to maximise profit. Where teams are more evenly matched, better to level profit on whatever the outcome.

Fair enough Plechy  re "adjusting" stakes where appropriate"


Trev
With horse racing each race is different re shape of race, and conditions can vary .......so some races offer more value than others......

There was one race this week where a horse was being offeered at 10s approxmately for place -

Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Alta Rock  10.28 6.00 Back 01-Aug-10 17:19  55.69
Treasures Girl  26.00 2.00 Back 01-Aug-10 17:19  -2.00
*Average odds: On  Off  Back subtotal: 53.69
Lay subtotal: 0.00
Market subtotal: 53.69
Commission @ 3.2%: 1.72
Net Market Total: 51.97


Now there were reasons why the horse had a strong chance to place.......I don't stake too much on horses in place market or win market on BACKS.....and I don't back in place market on every race......just when odds and chances of horse placing are favourable.....I was gonna stake 3 pounds on it to place....saw odds were excessively high and doubled stakes on it.

The other horse I backed was a shot in the dark....and was nor so clear cut a chance to place....so it only got 2 pounds on at 26s.

If I had split stakes 4 pounds on each .......then I was not using my "edge"....the edge being i viewed one horse to have realistically greater chance to place than the other. I would have lost on on not using the edge splitting stakes that way etc.

Level stakes tends to be made where you don't have a clear edge IMO......and is a weaker way way to bet.

If you have an edge ....you should use it........if you are not clear on bet...then fair enough just bet minimum stakes......as it is purely a "gamble" without edge.


Anyway racing about to start ....so GL with bets today.

bacontrout - i see your logic. but in many cases where the outsider scores first the draw price shortens. then when the favourite equalises it goes out to somewhere near where it started but still a bit shorter as there is less time left in the game. if you think there will be a goal just lay the 0-0 imo. it then doesnt matter who scores it.

id like to add im not saying this is or isnt the way forward. just notiuced you'd said this and thought id add my opinion.

i think danny, that was what i was kinda trying to say, in a 5 in the morning rambling sort of way

i was trying to offer an option that took the liability down - as you WILL take a hit and it will be unexpected - i would stay away from the man utd vs west brom sort of scenario entirely, the draw would be 6+ to lay, and obviously 0-0 is way into double figures. if you stick to a certain rule, ie draw price at 5/2 or under, it cuts down your outlay, and if you do take a hit, you are not trying to scale a mountain to get it all back. its not too hard to find matches every day in this price range imo.

Plechy, I've delved deeper into the stats, and of the 70 games which involved at least one team, who had been knocked out of Europe in their previous game, there were only 3 0-0 draws. However, there were 17 games with only 1 goal.  So in 20 of these games (28.6%), there was one goal or less. Realistically, this is far too small a sample to be able to tell much, but as you have said, long European campaigns take their toll and combined with the disappointment of elimination, this can result in lethargic play. The general underperforming of those teams, who had recently been knocked out of Europe, was more striking. (I certainly wouldnt have a bet based solely on these stats, but as you are going to bet anyway, its probably best that you are aware of these things.)