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TheAdvisor
21 Jul 10 13:32
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Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 954 | Blogger: TheAdvisor's blog
Just interested to see really. Been considering it for a few months now, although I'm still running my business at the moment. Curious to know if there is anyone out there, and by that I mean it is you only form of income.....

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Replies: 101
By:
buzzer
When: 21 Jul 10 13:33
None on here i'm afraid
By:
kenilworth
When: 21 Jul 10 15:12
With respect, forget it.
By:
Mosschops
When: 21 Jul 10 15:31
Yeah I wander about listening to Pink Floyd quite often. Oh wait, that means I'm a Prog ambler.
By:
HooRoo
When: 21 Jul 10 16:30
Back in October 2009, in an interview in the Evening Standard, Mark Davies, MD at Betfair said, (of pro gamblers)-

"There are very few people who are consistently profitable, and none of these people are in the UK"

Says it all, really.
By:
brendanuk1
When: 21 Jul 10 16:33
try football forum
By:
age 21
When: 21 Jul 10 17:17
my mate is a pro bettor on hear, he also does window cleaning on the side
By:
Coachbuster
When: 21 Jul 10 17:36
all depends on the criteria.

Betfair may class you as a pro only after you have won consistently for 5 or so years .

someone could live solely off gambling for as year or two before running out of luck ,or finding their edge has been  taken away etc ..or worst still losing their bank 2 or 3 times in quick succession ...a wipeout.
By:
Zola's Back Heel
When: 21 Jul 10 17:39
First off, change your forum name.
By:
Don No1
When: 21 Jul 10 17:57
Cannot be done LaughCool
By:
PIP99
When: 21 Jul 10 17:59
YES
By:
sparky2006
When: 21 Jul 10 18:01
of course there are. The ones who say it cant be done are the ones who can't do it
By:
Zola's Back Heel
When: 21 Jul 10 18:04
OK sparky, YOU change your forum name.
By:
zipper
When: 21 Jul 10 18:13
Gamblers   dont   last   long ....  why  cause  thy   gamble  ....... now   traders   or  lays    on  here   there   are   plenty  ... without   them   thats   traders   and   layers    you  would  not  have   a  market  ....... gamblers    dont   make  the   market .
By:
zipper
When: 21 Jul 10 18:27
Now   before   any   smart  arse    comes  on  ....  zip  has   been   in  this   game    since   1935  .. seen  em   all  ... been   there   dont   that  ..... got  the  Tee   Shirt  ..  But   i  am   always   willing   to  listen  to  any   sensible  arguement  ..................zipper
By:
brendanuk1
When: 21 Jul 10 18:32
how old are you?
By:
macarony
When: 21 Jul 10 18:33
Is anyone on here a pro gambler?

Yes I am pro gambler what do want to know? I joined about 5 years ago, since then lost about £2000 easy nothing to it.
By:
zipper
When: 21 Jul 10 18:43
Brendam.......zip   80  plus   vat  .... you  do  the  maths  .
By:
Lori
When: 21 Jul 10 18:49
sparky2006 Joined: 07 Oct 06
Replies: 220 21 Jul 10 18:01   


of course there are. The ones who say it cant be done are the ones who can't do it


Oddly enough, I suspect that statement is very very wrong on the whole.
By:
Avocado
When: 21 Jul 10 19:09
Hi, I'm a pro gambler. I can't tell you how to win though, sorry.
By:
fallenangel
When: 21 Jul 10 19:17
I'm no pro gambler....i just financially support the ones that are [smiley:crazy]
By:
TAKE ME OUT
When: 21 Jul 10 19:18
i used to have a mate who was a pro gambler

in 2008 he had 4 bets
By:
macarony
When: 21 Jul 10 19:28
^^^If I was to apply the same logic and discipline, to my general bets that I do to my poker play. I might have far fewer bets but a much better PL.
By:
brendanuk1
When: 21 Jul 10 20:32
80+vat that some good going, congrats Do you still play for the fun of it or do it for the dough?
By:
Don No1
When: 21 Jul 10 20:32
Commission gets everywon in the long run Cool
By:
JWL
When: 21 Jul 10 20:47
I know of one definite on here. Lays selected rags, with a massive bank and makes it pay full time!
By:
Stuso7
When: 21 Jul 10 22:54
macarony, i never made profit on betfair until i understood the concept of value which i happened across learning to play poker. Now i place a bet only when i really believe it to be "value". For me personally these bets are almost always as a lay bet, where say a partisan public (for example England football matches) results in a compressed price. I also find a reasonable level of (perceived) value inplay, especially tennis and golf.

I should add that, much to my annoyance i am a shocking poker player and have given up on it Sad
By:
Deadly Earnest
When: 21 Jul 10 23:40
The words 'professional' and 'gambler' are in some ways mutually exclusive.

If you have a method that wins consistently, it is no gamble to employ this method, at least not in the most commonly held senses of the word 'gamble.'

There has to be a better short phrase to describe somebody who makes their living by betting profitably.
By:
Avocado
When: 21 Jul 10 23:56
Sports Pimp
By:
no moves
When: 22 Jul 10 00:11
How much bank would you need to go professional?
By:
Avocado
When: 22 Jul 10 00:17
I'd need about 250k to quit my job. I'd bet 50k a time and then eventually 100k a time if bank increased.
By:
The Investor
When: 22 Jul 10 01:54
Deadly Earnest Joined: 16 Mar 04
Replies: 1537 21 Jul 10 23:40 
The words 'professional' and 'gambler' are in some ways mutually exclusive.

If you have a method that wins consistently, it is no gamble to employ this method, at least not in the most commonly held senses of the word 'gamble.'

There has to be a better short phrase to describe somebody who makes their living by betting profitably.


The things is that some of these 'methods that win consistently' will be due to luck. In the same way that lottery winners are lucky, there will be people on here who win consistently just by luck. If you do a statistical test to show that the likelihood that someone has an edge rather than winning due to luck alone is 99.999% that doesn't prove anything taken in isolation.

I went from 52 consecutive winning weeks in 2009 to only 19 out of 26 in the first half of 2010. That's a huge difference in consistency.

Even using arguments starting with 'in the long term' still don't prove anything. You don't have an infinite amount of time, and an edge cannnot possibly be quantified exactly on a single straight bet taken in isolation on sports events (there are exceptions that I won't go into here). Success rests on estimating odds/value as closely as possible, taking calculated risks. The best you can hope to work with will always be an estimate though.
By:
Avocado
When: 22 Jul 10 02:06
I had a good season last season but I'm not sure whether it was just luck or whether it's because I'm good at betting.
By:
Avocado
When: 22 Jul 10 02:07
Time will tell I suppose.
By:
Compound Magic
When: 22 Jul 10 05:10
If you had an axiomatic system for betting and selecting and you made a profit from
10 bets I would say that there was most likely a degree of luck involved.

If you made a profit using the exact same methodology over a 100 bets I would do a Simon Cowell and raise my eyes and take more notice.

If you were still making regular profits after a 1000 bets I would be thinking this person definitely has something going.

If after 10,000 bets and still making a regular profit I would think this person has
an edge and if there is any luck involved, would be miniscule.
By:
barnie gumble
When: 22 Jul 10 06:21
I am a male prostitute, a rent boy if you will, and I gamble regularly.
By:
sevey
When: 22 Jul 10 09:39
Zipps 80 + The Vodka And Tonic Keep Kicking On Z
By:
The Investor
When: 22 Jul 10 16:59
Compound Magic,

Try doing a simulation of 10,000 coin tosses where the payout is even, but the chance of heads is 50.1% and tails is 49.9% (obviously you bet heads every time).
You might see that a chart is generated that looks like it contains a steady upward trend (or even possibly a steady downward trend), or it's moving sideways, or up and down randomly so that it looks that there is no edge.

My point is that if I did a coin toss simulation like this and told you there is more chance of heads than tails, but didn't tell you what the edge was, after 10,000 tosses, it would be impossible to tell whether the chance was 50.05%, 50.1% or 50.15%. The best you could do would be to create a probability distribution. The same applies to any sequence of bets.

Eventually the chance of winning being due to luck alone will indeed be minuscule, but it never goes away entirely (as in the chance being infinitely small). You may be able to say something like 'the chance of these profits being due to luck alone is 1 in 100,000', but if you looked at a 100,000 accounts and this one had these characteristics, there would be nothing remarkable about that.

Also your calculations may be based on wrong assumptions, just like the finance professionals who said that a crash like this would occur once every billions of years.

I have an axiomatic system, and what that does is give you a foundation to support your theory, which then becomes more solid when what you predict (turning a profit) actually happens. I think you still have to live with the fact that you can't prove anything, only show that something is so extremely likely that there is no justification for doubt.
By:
anotheronebitesthedust
When: 22 Jul 10 17:37
Yes I'm a professional.

Here is a professional bet for you...

6.40 Epsom Lost In Paris (currently around 3/1 / 4.00)
By:
Get On MASSIVE
When: 22 Jul 10 18:02
I won't be having a penny on it but I'd love to here your explanation why this is a bet.
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