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TheSnapper
04 May 10 08:26
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Jun 05
| Topic/replies: 5,891 | Blogger: TheSnapper's blog
May is off to a good start, even after a brutal day on May 3:
Results May 1- May 3

Total Bets Laid: $483,53
Total Profit:$75,01
Win %: 15,51%


The Final results for April are in:
Total Bets Laid:$3 708,19
Total Profit: $239,97
Win %:7,44%
Pause Switch to Standard View The Betfair Bookie Results - May
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Report TameTheTiger May 20, 2010 5:49 PM BST
Also proves that over 7 weeks (dunno how many markets)there aint much in it.
Report Beat The OverRound May 20, 2010 8:01 PM BST
2.44% after 4.80% commission and the ride isn't over.
The commission rate will go down as turnover goes up.
A slight adjustment in the odds obtained and it compounds quite quickly.

It's simple math, if you personally are breaking even, you are offering your start prices too high.

10 ticks below and 10 tick increments were the >$3.00 and
Report Beat The OverRound May 20, 2010 8:04 PM BST
lost half my post, bugger it.
Report TheSnapper May 21, 2010 7:15 PM BST
Hi Beat,
Just got back. Wasn't playing this aftnoon, but I'm still going with lays this evening. Will post more results tomorrow. I'm skipping runners under 3.0 and laying runners at Bet SP 10 ticks under bookies. We'll see how it goes (2-3% profit after commission is still not too bad if you add 4.8% commission...after such a poor spell. I'm confident that it will rise.)
Report TameTheTiger May 21, 2010 9:23 PM BST
MY ODDS         BOOKIES SP

PISTOLET           6.0             6.0       L
FORK               2.9             3.0      WON
FAST               3.5             3.75      L
RED                3.0 & 2.8       2.5       L
MANDARIN           4.5 & 3.75      3.75      L
PINEROCK           4.5             4.5       L
TUSCAN             5.0             4.5       L
FILM               4.5             5.0       L
JACKDAY            2.9             2.88     WON
KILLING            2.9             2.88      L

Got bored just watching this aft,so had a dabble this evening.I don't think I did too bad on the prices,and as you can see,the results were favourable.
Report tobermory May 21, 2010 10:18 PM BST
You seem to stop and start this a lot Tiger.
Report Beat The OverRound May 22, 2010 3:43 AM BST
A few points to be made.
It works, but requires persistence and patience.
You know how you're going, not by your profit or loss because that will always seesaw between very good profits and very bad losses. In between are small profits and losses and the very frustrating pogo stick. A whole day or week's work and you end up neither side of the ledger.

Tame, at the prices you just posted, you will make money - no doubt.
The benchmark of how you are going is in comparing the prices of horses you lost on, with bookies and BFSP.

For those horses,between 2/1 and say 11/1 I do the tick thing, starting at 10 ticks below opening show.
For those less than $3.00 I use BFSP.

I must concede, it is somethng that is still evolving all the time, which is why sometimes my posts may apprear to be inconsistent with those of months ago.

It will evolve further when my automation is fully complete.

I have two computers network, one runs at GMT+10 in the Melbourne time zone with Gruss and excel for Aus races.
The other is set to GMT London time for U.K. races with the same products installed.
I also run a web server off one machine and have databases connected to both.
I have remote access to both machines if required.
Should one machine freeze or fail I'm sent an email and an SMS.
I have a few scheduled operations and macros to start and connect to programs at various times.
It's my mini auto bookie.
I would urge anyone with sensitive data and reliance on their pc to purchase a Belkin surge protector.
It has saved both my machines many times.

I'm always taking a curious peek at what's going on, but never interfere unless something happens.
Rescheduled races are a real problem that annoys me, betfair will not adjust their off times.
But it really doesn't happen with enough regularity to stop automation.

I'd be very interested to see the final May tally compared to the April results. At 4.80% commission, there's definitely further in the profits when turnover increases.

What's most pleasing, is that since I joined Betfair, I've never once had to pay a Premium Charge, I paid a transaction charge once for the number of transaction per hour, but that was when my excel sheet got caught in a loop.
I've addressed this now.

Good luck boys, stick with it, but don't give up on bad results when your odds prove that you are well within the pricing range of longterm profits.
Report TameTheTiger May 22, 2010 6:45 AM BST
You seem to stop and start this a lot Tiger.


I like to have a financial interest when I watch racing and this is the most logical thing I can think of to do.I know I wont lose doing this,so I guess it's free entertainment.
It depends on if I can keep getting the prices I achieved last evening.
Report Beat The OverRound May 24, 2010 4:49 PM BST
How you boys doing, today's turning into a bottler for me.
Night racing might destroy me though.
Report TameTheTiger May 24, 2010 5:07 PM BST
I've been away all weekend.Just kicked in in time to match Sheer Courage 5.00 LEIC
Report tobermory May 24, 2010 5:10 PM BST
Layed that one , looks a nice horse
Report tobermory May 24, 2010 5:29 PM BST
last week was awful Tuesday evening onwards
Report TameTheTiger May 24, 2010 5:36 PM BST
How many points ahead are you altogether ?
Report tobermory May 24, 2010 5:40 PM BST
My balance is £264.96  (£100 start).
Report Beat The OverRound May 24, 2010 5:42 PM BST
I calculate a point as 1 point equals my liability on any single bet.
I was up 5 points at one stage, but back down to 1 point profit for the day.
Oh well, a point a day keeps the doctor away :D
Let's hope for some carnage at Windsor or Thirsk.
Report Beat The OverRound May 24, 2010 5:43 PM BST
That's today thus far.

tobermory you doing well, were you doing this in April or just started in May?
Report tobermory May 24, 2010 5:47 PM BST
Started March 3rd

If i'd started in May would have about £60  Happy
Report TameTheTiger May 24, 2010 6:17 PM BST
If that's every one at £2 backers stake Toby that's excellent.Just keep doing what you're doing.
Report tobermory May 24, 2010 8:00 PM BST
another disatrous day here .Maison something just gone in at 9.2

Balance lowest for a month . Just gets worse and worse and really sick of it tbh
Report TameTheTiger May 24, 2010 8:05 PM BST
I only load bets after seeing opening show from the track.I don't look at anything over 9/1 so I avoided Maison,got matched on ONGOODFORM.
Report TameTheTiger May 24, 2010 8:11 PM BST
My theory is,if something is over 9/1 and gets backed then someone knows more than the bare form suggests.If it's below 2/1,then it's probably the best in the race on form and is expected to win by connections.
Report tobermory May 24, 2010 8:18 PM BST
Of the last 34 horses i have layed over 9.0....

.....8 have won Shocked

You'd be gutted by that many winners if you were laying 5/1s
Report TameTheTiger May 24, 2010 8:20 PM BST
What about the previous 34 ? If you're down on those aswell you may have a backing system.
Report joshuag May 24, 2010 8:24 PM BST
Have any of you guys actually researched this over numerous previous years or are you just sucking it and see
Report TameTheTiger May 24, 2010 8:28 PM BST
Sucking it to see,although been sucking for about 2 years,on and off,in various guises.I guess I'm a sucker for punishment.
Report tobermory May 24, 2010 8:35 PM BST
I've not researched it no.

Wouldn't be able to accurately research what i'm doing i think anyway.
Report TameTheTiger May 24, 2010 8:41 PM BST
840 matched WHERE'S SUZIE 5.0
Report TameTheTiger May 25, 2010 5:51 PM BST
5.00 Ling COLLECT ART 11/2 into 11/4 was the only winner layed this aft (4.3).
Avoided AMBER SUNSET in the 530,opened 16's into 7/1 WON.
Report TameTheTiger May 26, 2010 8:46 PM BST
Have you given this up Snapp/Toby ?
Report joshuag May 27, 2010 11:05 AM BST
OK let me ask you this, are you logging down all your lays with the price laid at and the bookmaker SP ?
Report TameTheTiger May 27, 2010 3:01 PM BST
Yes
Report tobermory May 27, 2010 8:29 PM BST
Not given up quite, though may do soon. Not been on much this week.

Not made any sort of recovery from the 4 week bad spell, but more annoyed that struggle to get matched on races now despite doing the same as the previous 10 weeks.

Was getting bets on 70% of races , recently more like 40% .Sunday i was here for 17 races, got matched on 6. Makes it stupifyingly boring.

Next Week i will be able to bet on racing pretty much all day everyday except Friday , so if things aren't improving by the end of that i'll probabaly just take whats left and bet on The World Cup with it.

I record all my results in some detail , but don't take note of Bookies SPs no.
Report Beat The OverRound May 28, 2010 3:46 AM BST
Well, it was a shocking day for me yesterday.
Hideous.
Lost 25% of my bank.
However, I would have won backing the same horses with the bookies.
Ergo, things will turn around.
Report buzzer May 28, 2010 4:34 PM BST
some big outsiders being smashed in today and winning
Report TameTheTiger May 28, 2010 4:43 PM BST
[;)]
Report buzzer May 28, 2010 4:46 PM BST
are you still perservering with this tame? I'd have thought it would have given you a good insight into how the markets work if nothing else Cool
Report TameTheTiger May 28, 2010 4:55 PM BST
Given up again Buzzer.It seems to me that when a bet is matched,it's still being matched in a 100%-102% market.So where's the edge ? Doesn't make a blind bit of difference if the horse was 40% bigger odds 10 mins previous.
Report buzzer May 28, 2010 4:58 PM BST
when you lay a horse at, say, 6 when it's been punted in do you just let the price run through to 5 if it continues to be backed?
Report TameTheTiger May 28, 2010 5:22 PM BST
That's what I used to do.I found it to be break even.When I started to lay twice,three times etc I still found it to be break even.It takes some resolve to continue when you lose 15 points on a race and only get 1 point matched on the next.
Report TameTheTiger May 28, 2010 5:36 PM BST
5.40 New Tawzeea 14 12 10 similar odds on here.I'm a backer.
Report TameTheTiger May 28, 2010 5:39 PM BST
Caranbola and Apache same story.Confident one of those will win
Report TameTheTiger May 28, 2010 5:42 PM BST
Tawzeea went odds on but no cigar.
Report Beat The OverRound May 29, 2010 3:58 AM BST
Well, it shows you need an iron constitution.

I went from being 25 points down after that horrendous day, to recovering all but 3 points yesterday.
The highs and lows are what get you, not the expected little losses or little profits.

Had I given up or chased my losses, I would have either lost my bank or stood no chance of getting back the loss.

There's quite a simple way to find out how it's going.
Is it a bad run or are the prices wrong?

I have a very large database of bookmaker fluctuations showing me the profit or loss on firmers.

Laying ALL firmers at SP, you make 15.17% being a bookie.
I am currently laying at around 8.33% above SP for all firmers.
Add on commission and there's still a few percent in it for me.
So on a bad day, I just look at the SP prices, and if I'd won backing them at SP, I know that the tide will turn, either today, tomorrow or eventually.

Stick with it fellas.
Report TameTheTiger May 29, 2010 6:09 PM BST
If you layed 8.33% above SP on all horses under 9/1,how would you fare ?
Report Beat The OverRound May 30, 2010 3:27 AM BST
That 8.33% is all prices, obviously I'm not laying 8.33% above SP on horses odds on etc.

To answer your question though, laying at SP horses that firm, you make 10.56%.
I am laying horses in that price range 7.62% above SP and paying commission.
So the conclusion would be that I must be losing a few percent.

Not so, because laying to payout x amount, I'm laying more on the shorter priced horses.

Here's my breakdown of lay ranges and how much over SP I'm laying...

Price Range Percent above SP
Under Evens 4.04%
$2.00 to $3.00 3.02%
$3.00 to $4.00 4.96%
$4.00 to $5.00 6.71%
$5.00 to $6.00 11.04%
$6.00 to $7.00 7.07%
$7.00 to $8.00 6.05%
$8.00 to $9.00 19.12%
$9.00 to $10.00 19.75%
Greater than $10.00 13.53%


A few days ago I was walloped with one of the worst days ever, the bank took a severe beating.
The following day, I regained all but three points.
Yesterday was a good day for me.

The breakdown of the week stats wise:

Turnover 154.08 points
8.91 points profit after commission
5.78% Profit after commission.

But it's been a very rough ride to get there.
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 3:15 PM BST
Completed 3 Months exactly of this now......

Mar 3 - Apr 2: WON £65.07 

Apr 3 - May 2: WON £116.04

May 3 - Jun 2: LOST -£7.19
Report buzzer June 3, 2010 3:22 PM BST
Well that's worth perservering with then.A £100 into £273.92 is decent in three months.
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 3:29 PM BST
Yes Buzzer  Happy  . Was on £307 as far back as April 27 though so it's been a struggle since .
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 3:33 PM BST
Going by those stats,you simply have to give it another month I'm afraid.
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 3:41 PM BST
Also,you should have alot of data now.Have a look through,see if you can spot any patterns.Look for a filter or two.The +9.0 may be one to start.
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 3:45 PM BST
The 9.0+ is horrendous

I complained that i'd had a sequence of 8/34 winning , then 2 more went in from the next 10
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 3:55 PM BST
330 NA Winner was 20's into 12's
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 3:57 PM BST
A couple of 9.0's winning sets you back 16 stakes.Can be a long time before you get back ahead after a couple of them,let  alone 8-10 of 'em.
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 4:13 PM BST
oh yeah . Making £25 profit , as i did yesterday , takes 6 hours . About 5 times in tha last month i've lost that or more in 10 minutes or so.

Sunday ,had built up to £286 , from £245 the day before , layed a 10.5 in the very last race.

Monday was 12-15 down , reduced that to 20p , then £13 down , finally got to +6 or so by last race and then the last race got me again and was -5 .

Tuesday was the worst of all, another 9. something put me on £248 , a 4/1 in the very next race down to £240 . Just carried on on auto pilot really but done well since and £281.
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 4:22 PM BST
Same story here Toby,going back 2 years or more,on and off.There maybe a profit there somewhere,but it may not be much percentage-wise.I daren't increase stakes to make it more exciting and worthwhile,because as you know,the bad runs can be really bad.
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 4:23 PM BST
4.00 NA 16's into 8's beaten a head.
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 4:28 PM BST
nothing matched for me there
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 4:33 PM BST
The % profit has of course been lowered severely .

I work that out sometimes but usually think in terms of profit per race . That had fallen to 28p last i looked , which would still be just about ok scaled up 20 times and able to do 240+ races a month with a 10K bank.

But at that rate it would take way too long to get to that level, would like 40p a race ideally.

Don't know what the true figure is as the contrast between the first 340 races and almost 300 since is like i was doing completely different things, so neither of those spells likely to be a true indication , nor is the average i'd say.
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 4:48 PM BST
I would say the average of those 2 spells would be nearer the norm than either of the spells individually being the norm.
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 4:49 PM BST
I also think hoping for 40p per race with £2 stakes is being highly optimistic.
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 6:33 PM BST
This is the kind of thing we're up against.


6.20 Uttox  10's into 7's. Tailed off and pulled up last time.Anything above 10's that gets backed,someone knows more than us.
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 7:37 PM BST
Missed that one , took an hour off , don't know if i'd have layed it
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 8:06 PM BST
My last 38 lays...

LLLLLLL WON 9/2 LLLLLLLLL WON 4/1 LLL WON 5/2 WON 7/1 LLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

Notice a run of 3 winners in 6 bets,taking over 10 pts off me.Around 15 pts up though after comm.
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 8:13 PM BST
I am +£60 from the last 33 races

Only winners layed in that sequence being.......

3
4.4
1.75

Balance back to £300 . This is usually when i lay consecutive big priced winners. Will probably pacj it in if i end up back in the mid £200s
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 8:30 PM BST
We are both on a bit of a run !
One way of avoiding laying consecutive big priced winners is don't lay big priced horses.
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 8:32 PM BST
I'd avoid EARCOMESTHEDREAM 20.35
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 8:33 PM BST
I've layed it at 10
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 8:38 PM BST
Ridden at half way.Looks safe.
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 8:42 PM BST
Shame they don't all run like that.

8.45 COSSACK DANCER 6.4
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 8:54 PM BST
done that one

If Pencheso and Fastback both get beat at Sandown, Bank will reach new high
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 8:57 PM BST
Now you know you shouldn't have said that.
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 9:00 PM BST
[smiley:crazy]
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 9:01 PM BST
If you do hit a new high,log off and savour it.The last 2 races are NHF.There's another filter for you .
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 9:04 PM BST
wow wtf
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 9:04 PM BST
whhhoooooooooosh ! nice !
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 9:05 PM BST
16K  at 1.01.

Go and have a beer !
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 9:05 PM BST
Penchesco

1.01                   £16,539             
1.02               £1,175           
1.03                  £5,194           
1.04                  £1,026           
1.05                  £3,442
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 9:06 PM BST
cheers , had some luck last couple of days, still got bets for the last 2 though
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 9:08 PM BST
unmatched 9.05
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 9:09 PM BST
First Watch @7 in the 9.15
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 9:23 PM BST
+£38.40 best day since i started

Layed 17 losers in a row, equalled my best sequence.
Report TameTheTiger June 3, 2010 9:37 PM BST
Well done Toby !
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 9:44 PM BST
av profit 33p per race
Report TameTheTiger June 4, 2010 11:17 PM BST
Back down to earth again.Layed 6 winners from 13 races.11 points lost.
Report tobermory June 5, 2010 10:05 PM BST
Complete Disaster today .Quite Unbelievable.
Report tobermory June 5, 2010 10:55 PM BST
Started Late....... first race...

........4:50 Muss , Just Lille 6.4 . Bad Start

Got £1.90 back on the next. Then, 5:15 Lingfield: Have a look at 5.13 , nothing near to being matched.... see the race start on TV so check Lingfield market to make sure; nothing matched. See the race end in a photo, look at computer, see i had been looking at the 5.50 ffs , check 5.20 market, yes i have been matched , at 5.4, on something that is involved in photo, this then wins the photo despite Matt Chapman saying the other one had.

On to the 5.20 at Epsom . Get 2 matched , both at 10 , cant possibly win as i am due about 25 losers in a row at those odds . Only mentioned once in the first 5 furlongs of a 6f Race, which is just to say there was only one behind them. Next mention is 'Flipando is flying' , then 'Flipando has won' .

So -£31.70 ,10% of bank gone in half an hour.

Couldn't be bothered with it for 20 minutes, then messing about with my p+l i see the figure of -£43.30 . Whats that i think? Last 7 Days? No it is 'just for today' because the 5:25 at Muselburgh, a race i had forgotten even existed , had been won by a 6.8 thing i had apparently layed.

Just had to laugh at that point.
Report TameTheTiger June 5, 2010 10:56 PM BST
Me too Toby.Layed three 6/1 winners in a row this afternoon.Five in total at 6/1+.
Only played the shorter priced ones this evening and pulled a bit back.Sticking to the shorter priced ones all day would have seen a profit.(and yesterday aswell)Just one of those days I think.
Report tobermory June 5, 2010 10:57 PM BST
Forget to mention i layed the winner of the very next race at 5/2 or so to make it 4 in a row.
Report TameTheTiger June 5, 2010 11:10 PM BST
That's a 2,328-1 accumulator at SP Toby.
The 9/1 filter would have saved you with Flipando.
However,I also caught Just Lille 6.4 and Jeannie Galloway 7.0
Report tobermory June 5, 2010 11:15 PM BST
Yes it would have been spectacular backing them . As i only layed 6 horses altogeterh in those 4 races, it would hvae been just £4 to cover them all for £1 in that acca. 

Don't see the need for a filter tbh , just a freak sequence imo. Qite incredible how horses can outperform those odds for so long.
Report TameTheTiger June 5, 2010 11:16 PM BST
I missed laying Space Station by 0.1
I thought I'd had a bad day but yours seems worse.
You may need to lower your offer price a little,and definately don't bother with the 9/1+
Report TameTheTiger June 5, 2010 11:17 PM BST
OK good luck.Keep posting your results.It's kinda comforting to know someone else is also suffering !
Report tobermory June 5, 2010 11:27 PM BST
Think i will definitely quit this next week and use what left on the football . I will want to watch the World Cup anyway so it just won't be practical to do this anymore, it is very time consuming apart from anything else, and it is annoying to lose on races you had forget you'd bet on, which happens more when distracted by other things.

Would have had the discipline to continue with some more encouragement from the results but made no progress in well over 300 races now, seems impossible to move much above £300.

Reached £300 now 8 times, but back on £275* again.

*a figure i first passed on race 310 (Apr 23)
Report tobermory June 5, 2010 11:28 PM BST
Done 651 Races now.
Report TameTheTiger June 6, 2010 2:18 PM BST
Hope you avoided CANNON FIRE 14's into 8's
Report tobermory June 6, 2010 3:43 PM BST
no just started
Report TameTheTiger June 6, 2010 4:04 PM BST
Just in time for Celtic Step ? 7/2 - 9/4
Report tobermory June 6, 2010 4:19 PM BST
No , first race bet on was 4.00 Bri , then 4.10 Worc

lost on both, another 4 in a row now

lost on Races 1-4 then did not manage that again in 600 odd races, now done it twice since yesterday.
Report tobermory June 6, 2010 5:57 PM BST
finished +£12.38
Report TameTheTiger June 6, 2010 6:13 PM BST
Nice ! Quite a few shorteners won,I feared the worst for you.I only played the shorter priced ones.Payed out just once on Celtic Step.
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