General Betting
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*Laying Correct Score Market 09/10"
*Laying Correct Score Market 09/10"
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1-1 won't be so bad for me, but I can't see Liege scoring... if anything, Zulte look more likely to score, so here's hoping!
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1-1 Standard... small loss instead of a big loss,
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Unlucky johnizere, i felt sure i was going to take a hit there[:p]
Bank now £26.11  |
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Nice one 'Mon.. the red card put paid to Zulte scoring a second, which imo was likely. I said before ko that Liege were cr@p.. and haven't changed my mind. Staying away from this league from now on.
Layed Unquoted in the Benfica match (at 7.2).. will trade for a bit of profit. gl. |
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I hope you traded out johnizere, AU didn't look possible at half time[smiley:crazy]
I'm going to lay 1-0 in the Portuguesa game, Sao Caetano should score imo Lay Backer's Odds Backer's Stake Payout Liability 1 - 0 10 £2.90 £29.00 £26.10 Good luck all |
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I've bottled out of the 1-0 lay[:p] lost 6p in the trade so my CS bank is now £26.05
AU looks like a better lay @9.4 Lay Backer's Odds Backer's Stake Payout Liability Any Unquoted 9.4 £3.10 £29.14 £26.04 |
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Portugaesa v Sao Caetano.
0-0 Lay. £9 at 16.5 Good Luck. |
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Landed.
+£8.55 |
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3-1 ft [smiley:crazy] my AU lay sqeezed through
 Bank now £29 exactly  |
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No, I didn't trade the benfica match, I was too greedy... I could have taken 3.00 just before the 2-1 score, then the odds went way too low, and never recovered. Down 45 quid on the night, thats over half the weeks profit gone, and I was doing so well. Onwards and upwards [;)]
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Guess this is done with DFC must of done his bank in, time for the new seasons one now screw this one has ended on a bad note
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Guess this is done with DFC must of done his bank in, time for the new seasons one now screw this one has ended on a bad note
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I wouldn't say it's a bad note, MM, just a bit of a mystery, that's all. Look forward to the new season, and good luck with it!
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come back dfc
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Only 2weeks to go until the new season :)
Lets get ready to rumble................. |
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STARTING BANK was £2,000, but I used this plus profits plus an input of extra £1,000 approx to cover position when a number of games being played roughly at same time etc.
I don't go "all-in" ....but was prepared to use up to £5,000 exposure on some games where I felt there was a strong chance bet would "win". WAS restricting liability GENERALLY to max limit of £1,750 on any one event. As from WEEK 18 have changed STAKING drastically, and GENERALLY will, at start of day's betting, just go for 0.01% of that day's starting bank as profit target per game. This will substantially reduce the level of liability risked on most games. If I lose on a CS LAY, then I will substantially INCREASE STAKES witha view to recoup the loss on previous lay, BUT ONLY IF I FEEL STRONGLY ON CS LAY'S CHANCES OF WINNING FROM IT. I might not go for all the amount lost on CS LAY, and might spread it over 2/3/4 CS LAY bets, but the objective will be to recover the loss and to end up with an average profit per game bet on of 0.01% after commission IT WILL NOT BE AN AUTOMATIC INCREASE IN STAKING, BUT BE BASED ON MY EXPECTATIONS THAT THE BET WILL WIN. I MIGHT JUST GO FOR THE NORMAL PROFIT PER GAME OF 0.01% ON THE NEXT MATCH, IF I THINK IT IS NOT A STRONG BET ETC. ====================================================== CUMULATIVE PROFIT B/F FROM END WEEK 8 .............£ 5,924.23 PROFIT FOR DAY 57(SUNDAY).................................. 482.49 PROFIT FOR DAY 58(MONDAY)................................. 304.60 LOSS FOR DAY 59(TUESDAY)................................. ) LOSS FOR DAY 60(WEDNESDAY)............................... ) PROFIT FOR DAY 61(THURSDAY)...............................468.99 PROFIT FOR DAY 62(FRIDAY)...................................330.47 LOSS FOR DAY 63(SATURDAY)................................ ) CUMULATIVE PROFIT AFTER 63 DAYS.......................£ 5,350.89 END OF WEEK 9 PROFIT FOR DAY 64(SUNDAY)....................................929.85 PROFIT FOR DAY 65(MONDAY)...................................211.11 PROFIT FOR DAY 66(TUESDAY).................................. 295.29 PROFIT FOR DAY 67(WEDNESDAY)............................. 511.45 PROFIT FOR DAY 68(THURSDAY)............................... 334.13 PROFIT FOR DAY 69(FRIDAY)................................... 233.15 PROFIT FOR DAY70(SATURDAY)............................. 990.09 CUMULATIVE PROFIT AFTER 70 DAYS.......................£ 8,855.96 END WEEK 10 WEEK 11 PROFIT FOR DAY 71(SUNDAY).................................. 90.61 PROFIT FOR DAY 72(MONDAY)................................... 410.36 PROFIT FOR DAY 73(TUESDAY)................................. 68.69 LOSS FOR DAY 74(WEDNESDAY)............................... ) PROFIT FOR DAY 75(THURSDAY)................................ 162.20 PROFIT FOR DAY 76(FRIDAY)................................... 709.45 PROFIT FOR DAY 77(SATURDAY)............................... 240.59 CUMULATIVE PROFIT AFTER 77 DAYS.......................£ 10,454.50 END WEEK 11 WEEK12 PROFIT FOR DAY 78(SUNDAY).................................. 452.64 LOSS FOR DAY 79 (MONDAY).................................... 385.81 ) PROFIT FOR DAY 80(TUESDAY)................................. 450.01 PROFIT FOR DAY 81(WEDNESDAY).............................. 602.53 PROFIT FOR DAY 82(THURSDAY)................................ 491.64 PROFIT FOR DAY 83(FRIDAY).................................. 429.37 PROFIT FOR DAY 84(SATURDAY)................................ 659.29 CUMULATIVE PROFIT AFTER 84 DAYS.......................£ 13,154.57 END WEEK 12 WEEK 13 PROFIT FOR DAY 85(SUNDAY).................................. 648.07 PROFIT FOR DAY 86(MONDAY)................................... 287.87 LOSS FOR DAY 87 (TUESDAY)................................... 418.36 ) LOSS FOR DAY 88 (WEDNESDAY).............................. (.978.88 ) LOSS FOR DAY 89 (THURSDAY).................................. ) PROFIT FOR DAY 90(FRIDAY).....................................578.06 LOSS FOR DAY 91 (SATURDAY)................................( 2,702.00 ) CUMULATIVE PROFIT AFTER 91 DAYS.......................£ 7,845.55 END WEEK 13 WEEK 14 PROFIT FOR DAY 92( SUNDAY).................................2,166.02 PROFIT FOR DAY 93(MONDAY)................................... 659.48 PROFIT FOR DAY 94(TUESDAY).................................. 245.38 PROFIT FOR DAY 95(WEDNESDAY)............................. 605.01 PROFIT FOR DAY 96(THURSDAY)............................... 589.87 PROFIT FOR DAY 97(FRIDAY)................................... 394.54 PROFIT FOR DAY 98(SATURDAY)............................... 972.91 CUMULATIVE PROFIT AFTER 98 DAYS.......................£ 13,482.76 END OF WEEK 14 WEEK 15 LOSS FOR DAY 99(SUNDAY)................................... ( 617.75 ) TOOK A HOLIDAY ON DAY 100 (MONDAY)........................ 0.00 PROFIT FOR DAY 101(TUESDAY)............................... 384.87 LOSS FOR DAY 102(WEDNESDAY).............................. ) PROFIT FOR DAY 103(THURSDAY)................................ 9.72 LOSS FOR DAY 104(FRIDAY)................................. 2,035.38 ) PROFIT FOR DAY 105(SATURDAY)............................. 1,059.68 CUMULATIVE PROFIT AFTER 105 DAYS.£ 12,075.26 END OF WEEK 15 WEEK 16 LOSS FOR DAY LOSS FOR DAY 106(SUNDAY)........( 112.50 ) PROFIT FOR DAY 107(MONDAY)................ 386.80 PROFIT FOR DAY 108(TUESDAY)................129.43 PROFIT FOR DAY 109(WEDNESDAY)..............412.57 PROFIT FOR DAY 110(THURSDAY)............... 290.11 PROFIT FOR DAY 111 (FRIDAY)................ 249.48 PROFIT FOR DAY 112(SATURDAY)............... 504.38 CUMULATIVE PROFIT AFTER 112 DAYS..£ 13,935.53 END WEEK 16 WEEK 17 LOSS FOR DAY 113 (SUNDAY)..........( 550.23 ) PROFIT FOR DAY 114(MONDAY)........... 244.69 PROFIT FOR DAY 115(TUESDAY).......... 116.04 LOSS FOR DAY 116(WEDNESDAY).........( 333.77 ) LOSS FOR DAY 117(THURSDAY).........(2,466.94 ) PROFIT FOR DAY 118(FRIDAY)........... 462.23 PROFIT FOR DAY 119(SATURDAY).......... 78.82 CUMULATIVE PROFIT AFTER 119 DAYS £ 11,486.37 END WEEK 17 ========================================================== NEW METHOD OF STAKING APPLIED FROM START OF WEEK 18 CUMULATIVE PROFIT AFTER 119 DAYS..b/f £ 11,486.37 PROFIT FOR DAY 120(SUNDAY)................. 385.69 PROFIT FOR DAY 121(MONDAY)................. 212.74 PROFIT FOR DAY 122(TUESDAY)................ 161.49 PROFIT FOR DAY 123(WEDNESDAY).............. 431.35 LOSS FOR DAY 124 (THURSDAY)...............( 694.46 ) PROFIT FOR DAY 125(FRIDAY)..................510.50 PROFIT FOR DAY 126(SATURDAY)................470.01 CUMULATIVE PROFIT AFTER 126 DAYS .....£ 12,963.69 END OF WEEK 18 WEEK 19 PROFIT FOR DAY 127(SUNDAY)................. 498.15 PROFIT FOR DAY 128 (MONDAY)................. 412.85 PROFIT FOR DAY 129 (TUESDAY)................ 344.43 PROFIT FOR DAY 130 (WEDNESDAY).............. 395.7 PROFIT FOR DAY 131 (THURSDAY)............... 228.55 PROFIT FOR DAY 132 (FRIDAY)....................4.33 PROFIT FOR DAY 133 (SATURDAY)............... 287.93 CUMULATIVE PROFIT AFTER 133 DAYS .....£ 15,135.63 END WEEK 19 WEEK 20 PROFIT FOR DAY 134 (SUNDAY)................ 443.81 LOSS FOR DAY 135 (MONDAY)................ ( 144.30 ) LOSS FOR DAY 136 (TUESDAY)................(. 84.13 ) CUMULATIVE PROFIT AFTER 136 DAYS .....£ 15,351.01 SINCE LAST ABOVE UPDATE RESULTS HAVE BEEN 338.85 -704.66 WED 2ND JUNE 505.56 -303.42 THURS 3RD JUNE -1065.77 365.15 FRID 4TH JUNE -2457.04 1241.38 SAT 5TH JUNE 407.78 551.03 SUN 6TH JUNE 338.44 142.13 MON 7TH JUNE -370.93 HOLIDAY TUES 8TH JUNE 401.79 544.23 WED 9TH JUNE 437.93 231.1 THURS 10 June 150.25 223.41 FRID 11 June -2327.1 -2627.3 SAT 12 June 482.36 -2179.01 SUNDAY 13 June 418.63 -934.37 MOND 14 June 1.34 174.06 TUES 15 June 482.46 -396.16 WED 16 June -1898.76 1277.6 THURS 17 June -25.11 -1598.4 FRID 18 June 515.3 -137.7 SAT 19 June 297.41 -977.87 SUN 20 June 364.29 512.37 MON 21 June 259.29 -808.19 TUES 22 June -608.42 615.65 WED 23 June 283.17 441.41 THURS 24 June 344.39 -1231.94 FRID 25 June -54.85 540.79 SAT 26 June 256.72 449.89 SUN 27 June -747.28 450.62 MOND 28 June 260.66 -1833.37 TUES 29 June 772.52 291.21 WED 30 June 161.74 -33.41 THURS 01 July -205.33 86.56 FRID 02 July 634.91 325.64 SAT 03 July -1294 407.38 SUN 04 July -5.25 441.42 MON 05 July -1118.97 164.56 TUES 07 July -1239.37 -1378 WED 08 July 394.29 210.74 THURS 09 July -596.41 -211.78 FRID 10 July 390.69 159.24 SAT 11 July -9.72 1809.56 SUND 12 July 347.99 -93.59 MOND 13 July 95.75 521.44 TUESD 14 July -1059.76 -2889.01 WED 15 July 486.15 531.44 THURS 16 July 315.04 83.37 FRID 17 July 430.1 -1253.17 SAT 18 July 109.21 -500.04 SUN 19 July 272.65 -192.3 MON 20 July 214.78 184.05 TUES 21 July 364.71 -455.3 WED 22 July 198.37 225.78 THURS 23 July 240.85 113.11 FRID 24 July 351.92 190.12 SAT 25 July -213.86 90.42 SUN 26 July -712.78 188.55 MON 27 July THEREFORE CUMULATIVE PROFIT WAS AFTER 136 DAYS 15351.01 LOSS DURING ABOVE PERIOD ON THREAD ( 6953.08 ) NET PROFIT ON THREAD 8397.13 The World Cup cost a few thousand ...but still in profit on thread posts..... Racing started ...will post thoughts later. GL with bets today |
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Ignore figures on left hand side ....as that was horse racing results.....eg on last day above the profit was 188.55 from CS LAYS etc...the -712.78 was loss on horses
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What's your strategy for laying the correct scores? What is your criteria etc. for laying them?
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I'm busy with racing A........why don't you list what you think the strategy is based on.......basically "common sense" using stats...and some guesses....
I will post "thoughts2 later re my views on CS LAYS etc |
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World Cup was where it is far harder to weigh up what might happen......far easier with league matches....
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Good to see you posting again DFC.
Hope you're well and looking forward to the new football season. Good Luck mate. |
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Avocado.
If you trawl through the posts on this thread DFC has posted lots of info on his reasons for choosing various CS Lays and readily highlights how he doesn't possess an 'edge' (although he is in profit over a long period of time of laying CS). I think the key for CS lays, is to use your judgement, look at some previous results of both teams, look at team selection maybe, look at goals scored and conceded and formulate your own view. No edge. Just an informed 'guess'. Then there's staking....another big issue! You'll find yourself laying higher prices which if caught can wipe a lot of your bank/profit. Good luck anyway. Looking forward to new season starting! |
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Good to see you back DFC not been the same. . .
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If a new thread for the season ahead is started and this drops away, I'd just like to say well done to all posters and it has been a great read.
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This is mugs stuff. The real money is in match odds, backing and laying.
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The problem with laying correct scores on here is that you can't get the value price that the bookies lay at. The prices are all inflated on here.
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Welcome Back DFC
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Avocado..
'The real money is in match odds, backing and laying'. Do you mean liquidity for the amounts you are wanting to trade or better value to return profit? I sometimes find 'value' or what I perceive to be 'value' in the HT/FT markets. GL. |
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It's a fair point. Most markets are derived from only two factors. Goal supremacy (how much better one team is than the other)and goal expectation (how many goals is the match likely to produce). If either of these are wrong, value will be found and found most easily in match odds or overs/unders, but also in many other linked markets. For a CS to offer value, these other markets will offer value too.
CS prices are not inflated, it's just that bookies are carrying a healthy margin. |
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Decade like betting a team double result then if in front at half time lay it back ?
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Bet of the Decade I mean big punters (not me) make money out of the match odds. Six figure bets on teams to win, that sort of thing.
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mmmmmm
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Or big lays of short price favourites.
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ttt for acornel...the bad losses were from JUNE 2010 throughout World Cup
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wow, nice to read this thread! really good lessons to learn for me!
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