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The Magician (6)
27 Sep 09 11:40
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Dec 07
| Topic/replies: 189 | Blogger: The Magician (6)'s blog
1) dont follow soccer - watch about 1 game a month, and the world cup
2) seen increasing comentary on the lack of draws in 2009/2010
3) just looked at last two years. 195 draws last year 200 draws the one before.
4) current rate in 2009/2010 will se the years finish on ~30 draws

I assume football has not changed that much....a cursory glace at past tables seems to show consistancy across seasons.... but maybe the distinction between top andbottom is greater this year?

so

a) are the draws being priced bigger given they have not been coming in?
b) it is time for mean reversion - and to back the bigger priced draws, if they have indeed drifted based on results?

thinking about backing every draw untill the end of the season.

comments?
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Report thetitan October 24, 2009 11:10 PM BST
quite bizarre to know that a tiny oversight has cost 12.5k free money, most would kill themselves, magician couldnt care less :D
Report JPG October 24, 2009 11:19 PM BST
"Viva La Draw" Bet:

Sold @ 83.0

288 Matches remaining, 13 draws so far, new quote: 86.2

Viva,

Tempted to close out for a small loss yet?! :)
Report Hull October 25, 2009 5:16 PM GMT
good results today
Report The Magician (6) October 25, 2009 5:20 PM GMT
Has been 32 games since the challange started.

Miss one yesterday.
would have been +12500
only had 2500 not 5000 on the chelsea game
(net net, should be 10K better)

but actual challange results below. so half way to target




Football: £54,695.79

Football Showing 1 - 20 of 31 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / West Ham v Arsenal : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 16:15 25-Oct-09 18:12 18,619.98
Football / Man City v Fulham : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 15:00 25-Oct-09 16:56 17,150.03
Football / Liverpool v Man Utd : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 14:00 25-Oct-09 15:58 -5,000.00
Football / Bolton v Everton : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 13:30 25-Oct-09 15:23 -5,000.00
Football / Chelsea v Blackburn : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 17:30 24-Oct-09 19:23 -2,500.00
Football / Burnley v Wigan : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 15:00 24-Oct-09 16:59 -5,000.00
Football / Tottenham v Stoke : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 15:00 24-Oct-09 16:56 -5,000.00
Football / Birmingham v Sunderland : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 15:00 24-Oct-09 16:55 -5,000.00
Football / Wolves v Aston Villa : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 12:45 24-Oct-09 14:40 12,250.01
Football / Fulham v Hull : Match Odds 19-Oct-09 20:00 19-Oct-09 21:55 -5,000.00
Football / Wigan v Man City : Match Odds 18-Oct-09 16:00 18-Oct-09 17:55 11,999.31
Football / Blackburn v Burnley : Match Odds 18-Oct-09 13:00 18-Oct-09 14:57 -5,000.00
Football / Sunderland v Liverpool : Match Odds 17-Oct-09 15:00 17-Oct-09 16:59 -5,000.00
Football / Stoke v West Ham : Match Odds 17-Oct-09 15:00 17-Oct-09 16:58 -5,000.00
Football / Everton v Wolves : Match Odds 17-Oct-09 15:00 17-Oct-09 16:57 17,108.17
Football / Portsmouth v Tottenham : Match Odds 17-Oct-09 15:00 17-Oct-09 16:55 -5,000.00
Football / Arsenal v Birmingham : Match Odds 17-Oct-09 15:00 17-Oct-09 16:54 -5,000.00
Football / Man Utd v Bolton : Match Odds 17-Oct-09 15:00 17-Oct-09 16:52 -5,000.00
Football / Aston Villa v Chelsea : Match Odds 17-Oct-09 12:45 17-Oct-09 14:46 -5,000.00
Football / Aston Villa v Man City : Match Odds 05-Oct-09 20:00 05-Oct-09 21:58 12,250.10
Report The Magician (6) October 25, 2009 5:24 PM GMT
roughly 33% return on investment.....

PC coming up - hopefully
Report The Magician (6) October 25, 2009 6:44 PM GMT
been so many draws.... it might be time to lay them, for a few weeks now
Report GASHWAN October 25, 2009 6:57 PM GMT
well played magician
Report McChicken_Sandwich October 25, 2009 7:15 PM GMT
The Magician (6) 25 Oct 19:44
been so many draws.... it might be time to lay them, for a few weeks now


Surely logic is a bit simple..
Report The Magician (1) October 31, 2009 4:20 PM GMT
another profitable day

Football: £65,473.88


Football Showing 1 - 20 of 39 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Portsmouth v Wigan : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:58 -5,000.00
Football / Sunderland v West Ham : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:57 11,523.01
Football / Everton v Aston Villa : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:57 12,250.07
Football / Stoke v Wolves : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:56 12,005.01
Football / Burnley v Hull : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:55 -5,000.00
Football / Bolton v Chelsea : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:54 -5,000.00
Football / Fulham v Liverpool : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:52 -5,000.00
Football / Arsenal v Tottenham : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 12:45 31-Oct-09 14:41 -5,000.00
Football / West Ham v Arsenal : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 16:15 25-Oct-09 18:12 18,619.98
Football / Man City v Fulham : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 15:00 25-Oct-09 16:56 17,150.03
Football / Liverpool v Man Utd : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 14:00 25-Oct-09 15:58 -5,000.00
Football / Bolton v Everton : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 13:30 25-Oct-09 15:23 -5,000.00
Football / Chelsea v Blackburn : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 17:30 24-Oct-09 19:23 -2,500.00
Football / Burnley v Wigan : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 15:00 24-Oct-09 16:59 -5,000.00
Football / Tottenham v Stoke : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 15:00 24-Oct-09 16:56 -5,000.00
Football / Birmingham v Sunderland : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 15:00 24-Oct-09 16:55 -5,000.00
Football / Wolves v Aston Villa : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 12:45 24-Oct-09 14:40 12,250.01
Football / Fulham v Hull : Match Odds 19-Oct-09 20:00 19-Oct-09 21:55 -5,000.00
Football / Wigan v Man City : Match Odds 18-Oct-09 16:00 18-Oct-09 17:55 11,999.31
Football / Blackburn v Burnley : Match Odds 18-Oct-09 13:00 18-Oct-09 14:57 -5,000.00
Report The Magician (1) October 31, 2009 7:02 PM GMT
another profitable day

Football: £65,473.88


Football Showing 1 - 20 of 39 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Portsmouth v Wigan : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:58 -5,000.00
Football / Sunderland v West Ham : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:57 11,523.01
Football / Everton v Aston Villa : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:57 12,250.07
Football / Stoke v Wolves : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:56 12,005.01
Football / Burnley v Hull : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:55 -5,000.00
Football / Bolton v Chelsea : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:54 -5,000.00
Football / Fulham v Liverpool : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:52 -5,000.00
Football / Arsenal v Tottenham : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 12:45 31-Oct-09 14:41 -5,000.00
Football / West Ham v Arsenal : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 16:15 25-Oct-09 18:12 18,619.98
Football / Man City v Fulham : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 15:00 25-Oct-09 16:56 17,150.03
Football / Liverpool v Man Utd : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 14:00 25-Oct-09 15:58 -5,000.00
Football / Bolton v Everton : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 13:30 25-Oct-09 15:23 -5,000.00
Football / Chelsea v Blackburn : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 17:30 24-Oct-09 19:23 -2,500.00
Football / Burnley v Wigan : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 15:00 24-Oct-09 16:59 -5,000.00
Football / Tottenham v Stoke : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 15:00 24-Oct-09 16:56 -5,000.00
Football / Birmingham v Sunderland : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 15:00 24-Oct-09 16:55 -5,000.00
Football / Wolves v Aston Villa : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 12:45 24-Oct-09 14:40 12,250.01
Football / Fulham v Hull : Match Odds 19-Oct-09 20:00 19-Oct-09 21:55 -5,000.00
Football / Wigan v Man City : Match Odds 18-Oct-09 16:00 18-Oct-09 17:55 11,999.31
Football / Blackburn v Burnley : Match Odds 18-Oct-09 13:00 18-Oct-09 14:57 -5,000.00
Report The Magician (1) October 31, 2009 7:02 PM GMT
another profitable day

Football: £65,473.88


Football Showing 1 - 20 of 39 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Portsmouth v Wigan : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:58 -5,000.00
Football / Sunderland v West Ham : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:57 11,523.01
Football / Everton v Aston Villa : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:57 12,250.07
Football / Stoke v Wolves : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:56 12,005.01
Football / Burnley v Hull : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:55 -5,000.00
Football / Bolton v Chelsea : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:54 -5,000.00
Football / Fulham v Liverpool : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:52 -5,000.00
Football / Arsenal v Tottenham : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 12:45 31-Oct-09 14:41 -5,000.00
Football / West Ham v Arsenal : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 16:15 25-Oct-09 18:12 18,619.98
Football / Man City v Fulham : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 15:00 25-Oct-09 16:56 17,150.03
Football / Liverpool v Man Utd : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 14:00 25-Oct-09 15:58 -5,000.00
Football / Bolton v Everton : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 13:30 25-Oct-09 15:23 -5,000.00
Football / Chelsea v Blackburn : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 17:30 24-Oct-09 19:23 -2,500.00
Football / Burnley v Wigan : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 15:00 24-Oct-09 16:59 -5,000.00
Football / Tottenham v Stoke : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 15:00 24-Oct-09 16:56 -5,000.00
Football / Birmingham v Sunderland : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 15:00 24-Oct-09 16:55 -5,000.00
Football / Wolves v Aston Villa : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 12:45 24-Oct-09 14:40 12,250.01
Football / Fulham v Hull : Match Odds 19-Oct-09 20:00 19-Oct-09 21:55 -5,000.00
Football / Wigan v Man City : Match Odds 18-Oct-09 16:00 18-Oct-09 17:55 11,999.31
Football / Blackburn v Burnley : Match Odds 18-Oct-09 13:00 18-Oct-09 14:57 -5,000.00
Report hazel November 1, 2009 4:59 PM GMT
impressive, i hope you were on todays drawn game 0-0
Report The Magician (1) November 1, 2009 7:21 PM GMT
42 games played in this challange to date
Missed 1 game that was a 5/2 draw
only had 2500 on one game tha was not a draw
net net should be 10K further infornt.

but 35% ROI to date, so challange going well

will be a shame if it all goes pear shaped now when on 2-3 draws from completeing this



Football: £73,703.91

Football Showing 1 - 20 of 41 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Birmingham v Man City : Match Odds 01-Nov-09 16:00 01-Nov-09 18:00 13,230.03
Football / Man Utd v Blackburn : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 17:30 31-Oct-09 19:25 -5,000.00
Football / Portsmouth v Wigan : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:58 -5,000.00
Football / Sunderland v West Ham : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:57 11,523.01
Football / Everton v Aston Villa : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:57 12,250.07
Football / Stoke v Wolves : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:56 12,005.01
Football / Burnley v Hull : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:55 -5,000.00
Football / Bolton v Chelsea : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:54 -5,000.00
Football / Fulham v Liverpool : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 15:00 31-Oct-09 16:52 -5,000.00
Football / Arsenal v Tottenham : Match Odds 31-Oct-09 12:45 31-Oct-09 14:41 -5,000.00
Football / West Ham v Arsenal : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 16:15 25-Oct-09 18:12 18,619.98
Football / Man City v Fulham : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 15:00 25-Oct-09 16:56 17,150.03
Football / Liverpool v Man Utd : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 14:00 25-Oct-09 15:58 -5,000.00
Football / Bolton v Everton : Match Odds 25-Oct-09 13:30 25-Oct-09 15:23 -5,000.00
Football / Chelsea v Blackburn : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 17:30 24-Oct-09 19:23 -2,500.00
Football / Burnley v Wigan : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 15:00 24-Oct-09 16:59 -5,000.00
Football / Tottenham v Stoke : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 15:00 24-Oct-09 16:56 -5,000.00
Football / Birmingham v Sunderland : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 15:00 24-Oct-09 16:55 -5,000.00
Football / Wolves v Aston Villa : Match Odds 24-Oct-09 12:45 24-Oct-09 14:40 12,250.01
Football / Fulham v Hull : Match Odds 19-Oct-09 20:00 19-Oct-09 21:55 -5,000.00
Report wilson November 1, 2009 11:21 PM GMT
If you feel that way take the money and run. Just paper trade to see which way it would have gone. Very well done so far though.
Report Kopland November 5, 2009 2:41 PM GMT
amazing thread - hope you get to the £100k

did you bet on West Ham v Villa last night? if so you were bloody unlucky with that last minute winner for the hammers
Report The Magician (100) November 5, 2009 7:29 PM GMT
did not know there was a game on last night

so now on 5K worse than I should be
Report DDuck November 5, 2009 7:58 PM GMT
'forget' the next game too and you'll be level ;)
Report GASHWAN November 5, 2009 8:12 PM GMT
amazing effort
Report The Magician (100) November 5, 2009 8:12 PM GMT
that is a dangers game DDuck
Report u want some November 5, 2009 8:55 PM GMT
Well done magician. Quality thread, total credit to you. You must make more than anyone on this forum. Keep up the good work.
Report DDuck November 5, 2009 9:36 PM GMT
was only joking , certainly wouldn't recommend it.
bookmark this page :

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/fixtures/default.stm

no regrets that way!
Report wilson November 9, 2009 10:40 PM GMT
Hope you were on tonight.
Report Wedged November 9, 2009 10:56 PM GMT
That must be damn near the 100k after this weeks footy?
Report JPG November 9, 2009 11:11 PM GMT
"Viva La Draw"

Viva sold @ 83.0 draws.

263 matches left, 22 draws already happened.

New quote: 88.8 :)
Report viva el presidente! November 10, 2009 3:08 PM GMT
enjoy your winnings. ;-)
Report Do wah Diddy November 10, 2009 3:12 PM GMT
BE A MERLIN AND TAKE THE MONEY,DONT END UP LIKE MICKEY MOUSE THE SAUCERERS APPRENTICE,, YOUVE PROOVED YOUR POINT AND TAKEN THEM TO THE CLEANERS ,DONT GIVE THEM IT BACK
Report JPG November 10, 2009 7:03 PM GMT
viva el presidente! 10 Nov 16:08

enjoy your winnings.


:)
Report The Magician (100) November 10, 2009 9:03 PM GMT
missed the liverpool game....

was stuck at work

oh well....
Report The Magician (100) November 20, 2009 9:13 PM GMT
top
Report The Magician (100) November 20, 2009 9:20 PM GMT
Well well well....

missing the liverpool draw ( stuck at work) was costly.

that makes the PnL impact of missed games +25820, ie I should be 25820 more infront.

real PnL is +71820. (shown below)

making implied challange PnL +98,320

......

so - do I stop;

1) now?
2) When theroretical 100K is reached
3) when actualy 100K is reached.

would be so dissapointing to drop back to nothing, sitting just 1.7% off target???

I'm thinking need to get actual to 100K
Report buzzer November 20, 2009 9:22 PM GMT
i can see four draws over the weekend
you're in a position now to set a stop loss, go down to 50k and knock it on the head, or break through the barrier. Good luck
Report The Magician (100) November 20, 2009 9:24 PM GMT
ok buzzer...

on your call I will continue to the actual target...

go draws
Report The Magician (100) November 21, 2009 1:36 PM GMT
good call BUzzer.... draw 1 done
Report frames November 21, 2009 1:49 PM GMT
Scoop 6 winner,bonus winner ,betting £5k on draws for an interest.Just one question ,what on earth are you doing stuck in work ?
Report Wiped-out November 21, 2009 1:55 PM GMT
Fair markets IMO....
Report frames November 21, 2009 3:03 PM GMT
And another 600k scoop winner ,well done.Surely you can pack in work now ?
Report puma November 21, 2009 3:20 PM GMT
he won the scoop again?

lol, well done magician...
Report thetitan November 21, 2009 3:38 PM GMT
3 1-0's as we stand and one 3-3, gotta be 2 draws out of that.
Report The Magician (100) November 21, 2009 3:49 PM GMT
another game gone drawn...

challange was complete in thoery after liverpool drawn this moring.

one more draw here and it should be complete in rerality also
Report buzzer November 21, 2009 3:57 PM GMT
a more than pleasing afternoon for you magician, well done on the scoop win and enjoy your evening
Report The Magician (100) November 21, 2009 3:58 PM GMT
In think that is it Challange done....

3 draws today gets me over the line
Report The Magician (100) November 21, 2009 3:58 PM GMT
thanks buzzer...

and thanks for cadjoling me into this today
Report jonnyg November 21, 2009 4:00 PM GMT
have a great evening magician and you as well buzzer.

I shall watch my wife and daughter having a curry.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves November 21, 2009 4:28 PM GMT
To paraphrase Jeffrey Bernard: "This is another thread that makes people like me go broke."

Ver well done, The Magician.
Report Ron Pillock November 21, 2009 5:39 PM GMT
An interesting thread but not for the obvious reasons. What has the magician actually done? Won £100,000 ? yes and thats great but hes also won 20 points which while nice doesn't sound so impressive. The same thing happens with tipster ads which boast nice profits to large stakes but when you analyse it turn out to be 20 pts profit or similar . People are dazzled by the cash figure which is just a multiple of points made. One mans unit stake of £5000 is anothers mans £5 obviously to mr magic this is chump change which begs the question why start the thread? I would say ego. For some people being successful is not enough other, people must recognise and applaud their achievements because whats another £100,000 if its what you find down the back of your sofa.
Report scrooge_mcduck November 21, 2009 5:43 PM GMT
Totally agree with the above. It's not masisvely impressive at all in terms of return on stake compared with winning days we've all had. What is does prove is that there is serious money to be made at Gambling, if you have a big enough bank and bet at level stakes imo.
Report page-413 November 21, 2009 6:19 PM GMT
dont believe everything you read Ron
Report JPG November 22, 2009 2:01 AM GMT
Forget all this "5k a pop" and Scoop 6 winings stuff...

Its mine & Viva La Presidente's "paper spread bet" that readers really want to know the latest on! :)

"Viva La Draw"

256 Prem matches remaining. 25 draws already happened.

Viva sold at 83.7

New Quote: 90.0!
Report RAPS November 23, 2009 6:55 PM GMT
Well done Magician.
Report brendanuk1 November 23, 2009 7:49 PM GMT
personally i think you fluked it ;)
Report Kerrygold November 23, 2009 8:16 PM GMT
Ron Pillock - jealous are we lol

The man has done very well with his trades and deserves credit ..well done..good stuff.. this guy is one of the more brighter fellas on here i'd imagine.
Report RAPS November 23, 2009 9:31 PM GMT
you imagine ??

with certainty.

I have learnt a lot from this forum, you could also.......
Report RAPS November 23, 2009 9:36 PM GMT
I meant to say..
we could all learn from this guy..


(why are all the best pro punters Australian ??)
Report The Magician (101) November 23, 2009 9:50 PM GMT
t
Report aye robot November 23, 2009 9:55 PM GMT
Withou questioning the Magician's undoubted prowess I do agree with Ron on this- if someone wrote a thread about winning £100 with £5 bets I wouldn't be very impressed. Just putting zeros in the end doesn't make any difference.
Report I.quit.my.job November 24, 2009 4:20 AM GMT
ROI % is the only figure you should be interested in when betting

growth of bank % when trading
Report The Magician (100) November 24, 2009 8:13 PM GMT
ROI is around 30% on this challange.
Report kenilworth November 24, 2009 10:59 PM GMT
RAPS 23 Nov 22:36


I meant to say..
we could all learn from this guy..


(why are all the best pro punters Australian ??)


Raps, what should we learn from this guy ?
Report Eldrick November 24, 2009 11:09 PM GMT
there's a lot of parallels between this challenge and someone who would stand at a roulette wheel, wait for a sequence of blacks, and then bet red

sometimes those people win too, and nobody cares when they do
Report JPG November 25, 2009 7:36 AM GMT
To be fair to the OP here, his original thinking/question had some merit. As you can see from replies, I wasnt (and still not) convinced there is anything in this but I cant blame him for investigating whether there were any market over-reactions to the early season results and/or any fundamental shifts in the underlying factors.

As for the results, too small a data sample for me to mean anything conclusive no matter what your point of view but I wouldnt knock the guy for at least asking the question.
Report kenilworth November 25, 2009 10:40 AM GMT
JPG, I haven't noticed a market over reaction, and draw prices are something I monitor frequently. There has been a correction in results similar to the roulette table example from another poster IMO, and that was always possible. I still think the whole thread is a wind up.
Report JPG November 25, 2009 11:34 AM GMT
Ken,

If you think its a wind-up then fair enough, thats up to you. However, do you think this purely because the level of stakes that are claimed to be involved or other reasons?
Report kenilworth November 25, 2009 11:48 AM GMT
JPG, to be honest, I haven't read the whole thread, being away from my computer for about 3 days in the middle of it. I think it's a wind up because, IMO, no one bets to that level on a whim, or if he IS betting on these draws, he is betting to small stakes. Either way, it doesn't seem genuine but I could be wrong. I really don't care.
Report "Stringer" Bell November 25, 2009 12:59 PM GMT
Magician will you look into pre suspension hoovering on a horse at lingfield today. Flawed Genuis, 1.30 race. 2.16 out to 4 on place mkt just b4 suspend. Horse stays in stalls.
Report The Magician (100) November 25, 2009 7:43 PM GMT
Stringer.

I have had a word to betfair already - and they are investigating it very seriously.

I will be checking my data tomorrow morning, and give you some feedback.

this horse has a history of this apparently. which on one hand gives reason for this but on the other hand raises further suspicion.

anyway I am sure betfair will be entirely thorough, and ill keep on them - to make sure
Report "Stringer" Bell November 25, 2009 7:57 PM GMT
The horse has done it the 2 times previously but the course players definitely got in before the suspension. Thanks.
Report Eldrick November 25, 2009 8:23 PM GMT
fwiw, i don't for one second think magician was bull$hitting here, the amounts involved were not enormous sums for him, as far as i am aware

my criticism is that he opened with some interesting questions, then appeared to show no desire to delve deeper and see if he could approach some useful, concrete findings - the proposed challenge he set up did not sound illuminating or insightful and the results aren't particularly so either

if there was some data mining that was going on behind the scenes to give a strong suggestion that these were indeed good bets he was having, then that's a different matter - otherwise it just looks like someone blindly betting at the roulette wheel against a streak of weird numbers
Report The Magician (100) November 26, 2009 7:49 PM GMT

"Stringer" Bell 25 Nov 20:57


The horse has done it the 2 times previously but the course players definitely got in before the suspension. Thanks.



Betfair have voided the bets - if you where a backer against the people putting in extremely lays - I understand you will get you money back as the bets have been VOID

a great move by betfair.
Report The Magician (100) November 26, 2009 8:55 PM GMT
you should have recieved email - and void refund now...
Report hazel November 26, 2009 9:33 PM GMT
The Magician isnt that against the rules?

If a market is scheduled to be turned in-play but Betfair does not suspend the market at the time of the 'off' (so unmatched bets are not cancelled at that time), but the market is intentionally turned in-play at a later time during the event, all bets matched after the time of the 'off' will stand.

I guess you mean betfair are refunding out of their own pocket, rather than voiding those bets?
Report The Magician (100) November 28, 2009 1:09 AM GMT
Hazel

Betfair are voiding

I am well aware of the above rule - but IMO that rule is in breech of (or at least not compatatble with) the law.

that rule will be tested one day - and found untenable -

perhaps that is partially betfair seem to contradict it on this occasion.

But remember have another far reach rule about interity of the markets and thie product - and I would assume it is this rule that the have allowe dto overide the above rule. I will dig the exact rule out for you tomorrow,

but IMO befiar should be congratulated for this move.

itis a clear aditional step in favour of the casual punter.
Report DDuck November 28, 2009 1:19 AM GMT
the magician have you and zilzal had your meeting with bha rep yet ?
Report The Magician (100) November 28, 2009 7:34 AM GMT
next week 3rd dec
Report liquor Senseless November 28, 2009 7:40 AM GMT
The Magician, have you selected your horse for Scoop 6 yet? gl by the way
Report The Magician (100) November 28, 2009 7:48 AM GMT
no not yet
Report Charles1980 November 28, 2009 3:50 PM GMT
draws again today?
Report frames November 28, 2009 5:09 PM GMT
I think the challenge was completed last week , will just have to settle for the 200kish scoop bonus.Heck of a run.
Report schonegg November 28, 2009 5:41 PM GMT
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/denman-scoop6-player-wins-again-...
Report jonnyg November 28, 2009 6:26 PM GMT
4/7 draws today.
Report The Magician (100) November 28, 2009 9:26 PM GMT
a little disapointing, the end of ( or maybe not ) of this challange.

I missed all todays games - was at the races.

dont knwo what price but assume

4 winners at 5/2 = +50 minimum
3 losers -15, so plus 35 today

so now on missed draws I am something like 60K worse off.....

and on the challange I am plus 80K

real +80
theory +140 I guess.

time to call it a day
Report Maurice365 November 28, 2009 9:38 PM GMT
FYI
premier league prices @ 2pm today

Blackburn v Stoke
h 1.98
a 4.7
d 3.45


Fulham v Bolton
1.86
5.3
3.6

Man City v Hull
1.32
12.5
5.9

Portsmouth v Man Utd
10
1.39
5.2

West Ham v Burnley
1.83
5.1
3.75

Wigan v Sunderland
2.6
3
3.45

Villa v Tottenham
2.6
2.98
3.5
Report The Magician (100) November 28, 2009 9:46 PM GMT
slightly depressing new....

Blackburn v Stoke 3.45 winner (cost 12250)
Fulham v Bolton 3.6 winner (cost 13000)
Man City v Hul l5.9 winner (cost 24500)
Portsmouth v Man Utd loser (saved 5000)
West Ham v Burnley loser (saved 5000)
Wigan v Sunderland loser (saved 5000)
Villa v Tottenham 3.5 winner (cost 12500)

opportunity cost 47250 (minus comission)
Report The Magician (100) November 28, 2009 9:46 PM GMT
PS thanks for the prices mauirice
Report Maurice365 November 28, 2009 9:51 PM GMT
np
man city a particularly juicy price
Report Baby Jesus November 28, 2009 10:51 PM GMT

The Magician (100) 28 Nov 22:46
slightly depressing new....



opportunity cost 47250 (minus comission)


I'm sure the £1.8M from the scoop 6 will lessen the blow ;) well done btw
Report The Magician (100) November 28, 2009 11:24 PM GMT
still hurts - as technically I have not completed this challange

I ahve only done so in theory
Report Eldrick December 12, 2009 3:59 PM GMT
draw crazy
Report subversion December 12, 2009 4:00 PM GMT
big, fat odds on them today as well
Report The Magician (100) December 12, 2009 4:28 PM GMT
so annoying.....

did not play today - was tied up with the scoop and a birthday party tonight.

3 times I have spend 2K doing 10 teams all ways with ladbrokes... that would have returend 200K today I guess

anyway..... cant complain

this challange would be 170-200k by now
Report The Investor December 12, 2009 4:58 PM GMT
Today would have been very profitable indeed!
Report The Magician (100) December 12, 2009 5:01 PM GMT
did a quick calc.... maybe did not miss 200K perhaps more like 125-150k

less agrivating...

7/9 would have been +75K or more on 5K stakes also.

wish I did not finsih this challange so early LOL
Report Eldrick December 12, 2009 6:40 PM GMT
6/9
Report GASHWAN December 12, 2009 7:23 PM GMT
respect to the magician.

a true proffesional.
Report G1_Jockey_4 December 15, 2009 6:45 PM GMT
no but they might do if there was no valid reason for the lack of draws but the price on draws increased to reflect the early season scenario
Report The Magician (100) May 2, 2010 8:29 PM BST
season nearly over....

did draws reach levels of past seasons?
Report The One That Got Away May 2, 2010 9:29 PM BST
DRAW 2009-10 (93) 25.41%
DRAW 2008-09 (97) 25.53 %
DRAW 2007-08 (100) 26.32 %
DRAW 2006-07 (98) 25.79 %
DRAW 2005-06 (77) 20.26 %
Report The Magician (100) May 3, 2010 10:48 PM BST
Thanks the one that got away....


I am too scared to look what I might have won if I carried this chanllange on to the end of the season....
Report Angry Monkey July 17, 2013 7:34 PM BST
A good thread from days of old!

£80,000 profit on backing the draw

£1,800,000 on scoop

Potential to win about another £350,000 on the draws

2009/10 - A very good year for the magic man!

Cool
Report JPG July 17, 2013 11:08 PM BST
Crikey, this thread brings back memories.

96 Draws in total by the end of that season... looks like Viva owes me 13pts.

Making some assumptions from his betting habits posted on this forum, I reckon he would have staked £100 per draw/point on that spread bet..... meaning he owes me £1300!!!

Ill accept a grand Viva :)
Report joshua tree July 18, 2013 9:12 AM BST
This was a good thread at the time....time has flown !! I seem to remember someone else running a similar thread at the time, though the poster only ran it for a few weeks and was betting in multiples.

A lot of punters dont like backing draws, but I happen to have a happy knack of finding them on a regular basis. Interesting that Magician simply backed on what you may call a " Monte Carlo " hunch....
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