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I can't think of any other company that has such an inefficient pricing system to its customers.
Companies have two goals - growth and profit (and in isolated cases, altruism). Betfair has a scarce resource from which to make its profit - losing punters. The losing punters pay for Betfair's profit, and winners' winnings.
In every other industry not in their infancy, their pricing mechanism is geared towards extracting the maximum possible revenue from different customers. No pricing system is perfect, but there is the clear differential between say student discounts on air flights, and business travellers.
It just seems to me that Betfair, 35m profit this year, which has its profits dwarfed by the Big 3 bookmakers, is sitting on its own pot of gold. Winners take money out of the system, whereas non-winners shuffled money between themselves at an attritional rate.
Once Betfair's growth declines (which it inevitably will), just how long will it be until non-profitable winning accounts are either restricted or shut down? I can see it happening within a year or two of floatation, possibly even before.
I know this has been raised before, but if I was Mr Miaggi, and I'd just put 400 million into Betfair, it just seems an obvious way to at a stroke make profits leap from 35m.
Companies have two goals - growth and profit (and in isolated cases, altruism). Betfair has a scarce resource from which to make its profit - losing punters. The losing punters pay for Betfair's profit, and winners' winnings.
In every other industry not in their infancy, their pricing mechanism is geared towards extracting the maximum possible revenue from different customers. No pricing system is perfect, but there is the clear differential between say student discounts on air flights, and business travellers.
It just seems to me that Betfair, 35m profit this year, which has its profits dwarfed by the Big 3 bookmakers, is sitting on its own pot of gold. Winners take money out of the system, whereas non-winners shuffled money between themselves at an attritional rate.
Once Betfair's growth declines (which it inevitably will), just how long will it be until non-profitable winning accounts are either restricted or shut down? I can see it happening within a year or two of floatation, possibly even before.
I know this has been raised before, but if I was Mr Miaggi, and I'd just put 400 million into Betfair, it just seems an obvious way to at a stroke make profits leap from 35m.
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zipper, did you used to run a stall in albert square?
Very prescient thread. Was it not possible for bf to close the opportunities for people to win "too quickly" - ie a longer delay on IR horseracing, rather than taking the extra 20%. The pc doesnt help the losers at all from what I can see.
No chatname specified 05 Oct 21:17
Feck N. Eejit.
Nomen est omen.
Wow. You're the first of the "I've just thought of something funny. I'll call Feck N. Eejit an Eejit" clowns to make a cnut of yourself in latin.
Feck N. Eejit.
Nomen est omen.
Wow. You're the first of the "I've just thought of something funny. I'll call Feck N. Eejit an Eejit" clowns to make a cnut of yourself in latin.
Very prescient thread. Was it not possible for bf to close the opportunities for people to win "too quickly" - ie a longer delay on IR horseracing, rather than taking the extra 20%. The pc doesnt help the losers at all from what I can see.
Agree with you there noodles. They could've wiped out most of the winners at a stroke by closing down interface loopholes but instead they've went for a slice of the action (there isn't even an incentive to harass insiders any more). As the mole says, the Sopranas haven't a look in.
Agree with you there noodles. They could've wiped out most of the winners at a stroke by closing down interface loopholes but instead they've went for a slice of the action (there isn't even an incentive to harass insiders any more). As the mole says, the Sopranas haven't a look in.
If Betfair continue on this road of attacking winning accounts I see a time when the tide turns against them and the decline rapidly continues
Betfair becoming a world wide force they can only grow, imo
This thread is certainly an interesting read and an indication of how perceptions can change over time. I can vaguely remember the thread and at the time would never have believed that Betfair would do what they did.
I cant help feeling that Betfair have gone about things the way they have because they need the traders for in-running liquidity (give me both barrels Feck! :) ) and the reason they havent just
I cant help feeling that Betfair have gone about things the way they have because they need the traders for in-running liquidity (give me both barrels Feck! :) ) and the reason they havent just
I agree to some extent Gin. There is a lot of competition among traders to take advantage of the invuilt **s particularly in the flies-round-sh1te markets.
If ir liquidity was the only reason though betfair could have confined the pc to ir.
If ir liquidity was the only reason though betfair could have confined the pc to ir.
afternoon eejit - same old sh!te I see ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ...
Afternoon Reubers. Are you being pursued by a bumble bee?
Your own hives no doubt? What a guy.
Your own hives no doubt? What a guy.
If not for the traders the whole of Betfair would be a ghost town.
Feck would be sitting in a corner by himself muttering "Come on ya mugs, lay this 2/1 shot at 3/1".
Feck would be sitting in a corner by himself muttering "Come on ya mugs, lay this 2/1 shot at 3/1".
BF know how the markets work , they wouldnt discourage traders for that reason ...they effectively work for BF in a round about wage ...much the same as Tesco need check out assistants .
I can't imagine theyre eating into their profit that much .
The fast pic and hoover merchants are the ones causing the damage
I can't imagine theyre eating into their profit that much .
The fast pic and hoover merchants are the ones causing the damage
Feck N. Eejit 06 Oct 13:23
I agree to some extent Gin. There is a lot of competition among traders to take advantage of the invuilt **s particularly in the flies-round-sh1te markets.
If ir liquidity was the only reason though betfair could have confined the pc to ir.
Maybe they thought they would test the waters and see how much stink would be caused, with a view to making the PC applicable to in-running only if it became necessary to appease the non-traders?
I agree to some extent Gin. There is a lot of competition among traders to take advantage of the invuilt **s particularly in the flies-round-sh1te markets.
If ir liquidity was the only reason though betfair could have confined the pc to ir.
Maybe they thought they would test the waters and see how much stink would be caused, with a view to making the PC applicable to in-running only if it became necessary to appease the non-traders?
interesting that DJ sunset appears as DJ sunset again.
not sure who changed it but it was "you are a liar, so sad" or summit
Hi
Just flicked through this thread. Not seen it mentioned but forgive me if it has.
One way of increasing profits would be to charge per transaction rather than commission. It could be a very small charge (1or 2p) but given the number of transactions here it would seem a more profitable way to go
Just flicked through this thread. Not seen it mentioned but forgive me if it has.
One way of increasing profits would be to charge per transaction rather than commission. It could be a very small charge (1or 2p) but given the number of transactions here it would seem a more profitable way to go
I've got to...didcot, yately 03 May 13:34
not sure who changed it but it was "you are a liar, so sad" or summit
Yep, there was certainly a very strange dynamic going on between betfair and him.
I can't help but notice how DJ's elasticity of demand stuff is so close to the way the PC works.
There are dates but you have to scroll across because Rueben's ZZZZZZZZ post lengthened the page
DJ Sunset Joined: 20 Feb 01
Replies: 116 22 Sep 06 15:33
Bridgey> they don't need to close any accounts down, but I can see in the future that they may change their pricing mechanism to extract more money from winning accounts.
Who is this DJ,he seems very prophetic, does he post any tips anywhere ?
Replies: 116 22 Sep 06 15:33
Bridgey> they don't need to close any accounts down, but I can see in the future that they may change their pricing mechanism to extract more money from winning accounts.
Who is this DJ,he seems very prophetic, does he post any tips anywhere ?
Sadly missed. In those days giants roamed this forum.
jesus. over 4 years since this thread was posted. what am i doiung with my life? and will i be doing with it in 4 years? 
Spoke to DJ last week.
He is doing well for those that are interested.
Sadly many of the best posters here got banned one way or another....
and then then new forum format killed off the few that remained.
this forum is so dead it is sad.
2003-2004 it was an gambling intelectuals paradise,
He is doing well for those that are interested.
Sadly many of the best posters here got banned one way or another....
and then then new forum format killed off the few that remained.
this forum is so dead it is sad.
2003-2004 it was an gambling intelectuals paradise,
"2003-2004 it was an gambling intelectuals paradise"
Sooo true !
There were 2 factors that really helped..
1, Huge quantaties of excess cash from a booming housing market
and
2, Most people on here were happy to help on another due to the liquidity of the markets..
Knowing if they helped each other out, they could both profit in the same market.
At least 80+ % of people didn't have bots either. Creating voliatility in markets even before football matches.
not sure what my idea of paradise is but it certainly isnt the 03/04 Betfair forum
not sure what my idea of paradise is but it certainly isnt the 03/04 Betfair forum
Yes, but to be fair The Magician was talking about intellectuals [;)]
Yes, but to be fair The Magician was talking about intellectuals [;)]
Definitely started going downhill mid to late 04.
i would love to have been on betfair at that time ...seems i missed some good times
Spoke to DJ last week.
He is doing well for those that are interested.
Doing what, gambling on Big brother or trying to become a contestant?
He is doing well for those that are interested.
Doing what, gambling on Big brother or trying to become a contestant?
Wasn't he just a fast picture merchant in the end? Read all about his gambling prowess on his website but didn't he travel courtside to tennis games to get his edge???
From what I remember back in 04 everyone was saying how much better the forum was in 02 
DJ sorely missed, I know he wasn't universally liked but his posts were a million times more interesting than most of the dross on here.
DJ sorely missed, I know he wasn't universally liked but his posts were a million times more interesting than most of the dross on here.
Paddy Power have gone out of business I didn't know that.
Obviously, some people knew what was happening behind the scenes at Betfair.
but didn't he travel courtside to tennis games to get his edge???
That was Troy Mclure
That was Troy Mclure
DJ
is investingating some, ideas....
merging exchange and economics
end of the day he was a pretty clever man that had some good clarity on exchanges
I know some people knocked him, but he was always good to me
is investingating some, ideas....
merging exchange and economics
end of the day he was a pretty clever man that had some good clarity on exchanges
I know some people knocked him, but he was always good to me
To me the the abiding memory of DJ is the photo of him under a bridge, in an article about him. Apparently this is the natural home of yer Bona fide pro punter.
Haven't read the thread, but I can tell you they restricted my account as soon as they introduced the Premium charge. I now place very limited bets here. Largely gone back to the High Street, which I genuinely never thought I would. In truth I am no worse off. If BF really want the golden days back, with plenty of liquidity, they must scrap the premium charge, alas I suspect they don't.
Betting exchanges are the only place consistent winning account holders, will not get their account shut down.
Therefore if Betfair did this i think there would be more people go on the purple site, than the commission charge has caused.
Having said that i think its apointless discussion because most people have losing accounts anyway, so its not an issue.
Therefore if Betfair did this i think there would be more people go on the purple site, than the commission charge has caused.
Having said that i think its apointless discussion because most people have losing accounts anyway, so its not an issue.
Can I asky why no one has ever set up a forum for Betfair outwith the Betfair network?
Well done Dashero. Hats off to DJ for the opening post, you have to say it was stunningly prescient. But I also wonder if this was an 'inception' moment when someone at BF Towers read this thread and 5 years later we all have Mr Sunset to blame.
Hang the DJ?
Hang the DJ?
Yes KR it was prophetic stuff fom DJ and I agree that it may have planted a seed at the towers along with Troy's commission boast....
Indeed.
Bloody DJ gave them the idea ;)
Interesting that their profit in 2006 was 35M. This year it's 26.6M.
So the changes clearly haven't worked.
Bloody DJ gave them the idea ;)
Interesting that their profit in 2006 was 35M. This year it's 26.6M.
So the changes clearly haven't worked.
May it be that the costs have increased exponentially to develop and support the non-used non-profit-contributing products?
May it be that the costs have increased exponentially to develop and support the non-used non-profit-contributing products?
And layers and layers of poor management
And layers and layers of poor management
from OP 2006 seems an obvious way to at a stroke make profits leap from 35m.
from today while pre-tax profit jumped 54.4 per cent to £35.1 million.
Going nowhere fast with pc
from today while pre-tax profit jumped 54.4 per cent to £35.1 million.
Going nowhere fast with pc
He's been hung plenty of times on specials forum.
Mainly due to the restrictions put into place on many weekly markets thanks to him, which have killed liquidity in all the shows bar the X Factor.
Mainly due to the restrictions put into place on many weekly markets thanks to him, which have killed liquidity in all the shows bar the X Factor.
It was pretty obvious really, incredible that they didn't do it sooner and a shame they didn't do it better.
Some sadly missed names on this thread. DJ, medemi (how are you my old mucker?), CAT, frog, morris, magician, ... It was good to look back through it and see some of the ridiculous comments from the "it can't happen because we're so important and supply unlimited and famous liquidity" Ferengi clowns.
Betfair wont stop winners betting as clearly now they are very important to there profits, some may find there other accounts getting closed if they are evading premium charge payments as this would have to be stamped out or else there is no point having the charge in place.
There is clearly also a mechanism in place within the 40%-60% terms and conditions of the new premium charge that seems to suggest that churning is ok as this will increase the overall profits made for betfair or am I seeing a mirage in the structure of the charging mechanism?
The reasons for the hike to all observations lie between 2 possible scenarios
1.....Betfair needs to raise its profit profile from marginal to beyond to pay for housekeeping
2.....Betfair is struggling with its drop in share value to attract much needed cash to keep
on going or its curtains.
anypoint between these two obvious but uncertain scenario conditions says one major thing to
any business specialist which I confess not to be, and that is, its going to be a bumpy road
in the mid to long term for betfairs survival as exchange leader and its perceived ethos is
now totally changed, possibly irreversibly and the effect this will have with the press and the
public now not pitching in there court of admiration anymore on the input levels of new customers
and new money agains newly percieved fairer betting exchanges will not be known for a year or two
but for betfair just too keep its fingers crossed hoping for nil effect would be voted
the most enterprising business delusion of the century, and on that premise we all know betfair
would win that prize now, hands down.
If not happy then prosperous punting all on BF.
There is clearly also a mechanism in place within the 40%-60% terms and conditions of the new premium charge that seems to suggest that churning is ok as this will increase the overall profits made for betfair or am I seeing a mirage in the structure of the charging mechanism?
The reasons for the hike to all observations lie between 2 possible scenarios
1.....Betfair needs to raise its profit profile from marginal to beyond to pay for housekeeping
2.....Betfair is struggling with its drop in share value to attract much needed cash to keep
on going or its curtains.
anypoint between these two obvious but uncertain scenario conditions says one major thing to
any business specialist which I confess not to be, and that is, its going to be a bumpy road
in the mid to long term for betfairs survival as exchange leader and its perceived ethos is
now totally changed, possibly irreversibly and the effect this will have with the press and the
public now not pitching in there court of admiration anymore on the input levels of new customers
and new money agains newly percieved fairer betting exchanges will not be known for a year or two
but for betfair just too keep its fingers crossed hoping for nil effect would be voted
the most enterprising business delusion of the century, and on that premise we all know betfair
would win that prize now, hands down.
If not happy then prosperous punting all on BF.
They are spending alot of time/effort/money into gaining authorisation to trade/operate in several other countries atm, can't see other countries putting up with 40-60%, wasted venture.
acquiesce12
They are spending alot of time/effort/money into gaining authorisation to trade/operate in several other countries atm, can't see other countries putting up with 40-60%, wasted venture.
So in effect now there theoretically spending winners profits to sell there version of an ideal
sporting exchange. perhaps if this fails because of the premium charges they will design keyhole
terms and conditions for different countries, its worked in the uk so theres plenty will fall for it globally, reckon publicity avoidance is there preferred method, seems to have back fired though at there annual get together[;)]
They are spending alot of time/effort/money into gaining authorisation to trade/operate in several other countries atm, can't see other countries putting up with 40-60%, wasted venture.
So in effect now there theoretically spending winners profits to sell there version of an ideal
sporting exchange. perhaps if this fails because of the premium charges they will design keyhole
terms and conditions for different countries, its worked in the uk so theres plenty will fall for it globally, reckon publicity avoidance is there preferred method, seems to have back fired though at there annual get together[;)]
Hi paulme, I don't know where it keeps coming from, but like I said to my friend today I am full of it[;)]
Loved the comments in the press about betfair staff being nominated for baftas, tickled me immensely
They won't get the licensing in the end, just like America, it will be decided Betfair is a form of money laundering, so the PC is one issue. They should ge their house in order first and concentrate on their falling share price.
So in effect now there theoretically spending winners profits to sell there version of an ideal
From bff post. Highlighted should read traders earnings
From bff post. Highlighted should read traders earnings
Yes, but not for winning.
Eddy had wisdom beyond his years IMHO. But even he did not see how far it was going to go.
"Once Betfair's growth declines (which it inevitably will), just how long will it be until non-profitable winning accounts are either restricted or shut down? I can see it happening within a year or two of floatation, possibly even before."
But he was also like a dog with a bone and didn't know when to keep his powder dry.
Love him or loathe him, this forum would be a more interesting place if he was still around. Instead we have these pseudo-intellectuals with ADHD, who have done the online MENSA test and believe they are a cut above the rest of us. (£17.50 per mug)
Eddy had wisdom beyond his years IMHO. But even he did not see how far it was going to go.
"Once Betfair's growth declines (which it inevitably will), just how long will it be until non-profitable winning accounts are either restricted or shut down? I can see it happening within a year or two of floatation, possibly even before."
But he was also like a dog with a bone and didn't know when to keep his powder dry.
Love him or loathe him, this forum would be a more interesting place if he was still around. Instead we have these pseudo-intellectuals with ADHD, who have done the online MENSA test and believe they are a cut above the rest of us. (£17.50 per mug)
Is he actually banned from betting on the site ?
If so, that would be a first ?
Pretty unenforceable though, in that he could get any member of his family presumably to front an account for him.
If so, that would be a first ?
Pretty unenforceable though, in that he could get any member of his family presumably to front an account for him.
But he was also like a dog with a bone and didn't know when to keep his powder dry.
Love him or loathe him, this forum would be a more interesting place if he was still around. Instead we have these pseudo-intellectuals with ADHD, who have done the online MENSA test and believe they are a cut above the rest of us. (£17.50 per mug)
Love him or loathe him, this forum would be a more interesting place if he was still around. Instead we have these pseudo-intellectuals with ADHD, who have done the online MENSA test and believe they are a cut above the rest of us. (£17.50 per mug)
lol remember when he was on big brother wasnt chosen on the first night
http://eddymurraydj.tripod.com/sexydjcom/
for anyone interested
for anyone interested
More reading for Smithy...
so did DJ Sunset start it all off putting the idea into BF's mind
so did DJ Sunset start it all off putting the idea into BF's mind
I know this is eight years down the line, but OP was correct in his post and his ensuing debate.
A good ttt Andriy, cheers
The last betfair annual report is online at (.http://www.investegate.co.uk/betfair-group-plc--bet-/rns/final-results/201... and contains some comedy gems:
'Excellent progress made in the delivery of our turnaround plan' - yeah right, turning new in-play exchange punters around in the doorway and sending them straight back out.
'New management team in place and cultural change underway' - that's the culture which permits ex-employees to break sporting rules and betfair's own rules by 'courtsiding' right.
'improving the ease of use of the Exchange, while still allowing our customers to benefit fully from its unique characteristics and value' - is that the value which means a new customer to the exchange having a look at in-play for the first time will have his bet matched at least 20% of the time by someone mugging him off using a private data feed.
It should be possible for a newcomer to in-play to win say 40% of the time following the action at home on Sky, and half the losers to feel that they had value and/or excitement at some point. This is pure guessing from the 20% courtsider matched-bets, but if newcomers win say 32% of the time per event and only 40% of the losers had a value exciting experience, then newcomers are both being ripped off and less likely to come back.
'While total Gaming revenues were down 6% in the year, led by a 26% decline in unregulated jurisdictions following market exits' - Surely that is black humour. The unregulated jurisdiction is right here where their own rules are not being enforced:
'Specific Conditions relating to your use of the Exchange
Your Conduct
You will at all times act in good faith in relation to the counterparties to your bets struck through the Exchange and such counterparties will be able to enforce this duty directly against you. In particular you will not place bets on the Exchange in breach of any sporting rules, regulations or code of conduct which apply to you.'
The last betfair annual report is online at (.http://www.investegate.co.uk/betfair-group-plc--bet-/rns/final-results/201... and contains some comedy gems:
'Excellent progress made in the delivery of our turnaround plan' - yeah right, turning new in-play exchange punters around in the doorway and sending them straight back out.
'New management team in place and cultural change underway' - that's the culture which permits ex-employees to break sporting rules and betfair's own rules by 'courtsiding' right.
'improving the ease of use of the Exchange, while still allowing our customers to benefit fully from its unique characteristics and value' - is that the value which means a new customer to the exchange having a look at in-play for the first time will have his bet matched at least 20% of the time by someone mugging him off using a private data feed.
It should be possible for a newcomer to in-play to win say 40% of the time following the action at home on Sky, and half the losers to feel that they had value and/or excitement at some point. This is pure guessing from the 20% courtsider matched-bets, but if newcomers win say 32% of the time per event and only 40% of the losers had a value exciting experience, then newcomers are both being ripped off and less likely to come back.
'While total Gaming revenues were down 6% in the year, led by a 26% decline in unregulated jurisdictions following market exits' - Surely that is black humour. The unregulated jurisdiction is right here where their own rules are not being enforced:
'Specific Conditions relating to your use of the Exchange
Your Conduct
You will at all times act in good faith in relation to the counterparties to your bets struck through the Exchange and such counterparties will be able to enforce this duty directly against you. In particular you will not place bets on the Exchange in breach of any sporting rules, regulations or code of conduct which apply to you.'
Thanks to cpfc4me for providing a link to this. A good read.
Oh god this old chestnut. Many people assume the decline began in September 2008 when they announced the premium charge, but now it transpires it was 2 years earlier when DJ Sunset first gave them the idea
DJ didn't give them the idea, they were already thinking along those lines, so no need to blame him. Col Archaius Tory was "in the know" and he says as much in his OP.
250 posts in one day. Shows how the forum has changed.
250 posts in one day. Shows how the forum has changed.
made me laugh how dogdice was throwing in totally random comments at the start in a disruptive attempt to 'lose' the thread.
There was an economist on Question Time this week and she said we need to move away from this attitude of companies just going all out to make profits for their shareholders at the expense of creating opportunities down the line for the general population. To be honest she could have been talking about Betfair because the premium charge and in-house bots seems very short sighted and it's hard to be optimistic about the future.
In a word, has their Sportsbook been a success ?
Launching the sportsbook probably encouraged paddy power to buy betfair. So for the shareholders its a success, for exchange customers, not so much.
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