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Frog says, 'have to give genuine punters the dream of being able to win to get them here in the first place.'
Let me add: The Laying facility gets them here, the dream of long term profits keeps 'em here. |
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:) luckylucas.
Bf are very ad hoc with what they do, and often taken completely opposite decisions within short spaces of time. (press releases promising to ban bots, then setting up the API etcetera). They're not daft, and the question is not whether they will put up prices (inevitable), or whether they will target the users who are in reality willing to pay more for the service than others (a vital step financially, but complicated logistically). This thread is raising the issue pre-emptively amongst us lot. |
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DJ Sunset,
Are you a Betfair employee? |
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I can't see any upside to letting people hoover up money on specials markets for Betfair regardless of whether its legal or not.
Charging extra commission is not the answer , closing their accounts is. On the more general point of whether long term winners are a good thing I would say on balance they are because they generate liquidity which brings more losers on board.Also remember a lot of the big losing money is from arbers (cricket is a good example). |
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There is an upside to allowing people to bet after the result is known - it gives freedom of choice to people and allows them to bet if they want a bet.
There is a tradeoff between freedom to bet, and getting a run for their money. I can see the argument that if Joe Public wants a 10 on something, then why not let him have it, (and cash in by charging commission) even if unwittingly he has placed a bet he has a 0% chance of winning. |
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Markets should be made illegal if one party has zero chance of winning. Anyone betting knowing they have 100% chance of winning should be locked up.
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"
frog 23 Sep 16:09 Markets should be made illegal if one party has zero chance of winning. Anyone betting knowing they have 100% chance of winning should be locked up." Oh dear god. It's the crazy guy again;o(((( Question, should we beat the guy before or after we lock him up? If I want a wager that a man lands on mars tomorrow and go to a bookie and ask about a price, can we then proceed to hang the bookie? Also, have you not taken your medicine again? |
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frog 23 Sep 14:09
Markets should be made illegal if one party has zero chance of winning. Anyone betting knowing they have 100% chance of winning should be locked up. Using a phone vote is legal. I don't agree with it, but that is the starting point that Bf use. Watching the markets get hoovered with money smashed into them taking everything is just sad to see. Legal it may be, but I personally hoped for more from Betfair than this. I know who knows the result, I know how, and at times I knew the result. It just seems a very flimsy way to build a business, and must surely be damaging Betfair's genuine users. |
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'If I want a wager that a man lands on mars tomorrow and go to a bookie and ask about a price, can we then proceed to hang the bookie?'
People know the score with this type of bet. People dont know the score when someone already has a result for a specials market or knows that a horse has won a photo finish. Can you not see the difference? |
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He can't see the difference.
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Dj,
Who says that it is not illegal? Has such a case been tested yet? Everything is new since the Gambling Bill. Gambling Commission Chairman Peter Dean said: We have three clear regulatory objectives: to keep crime out, to make sure gambling is fair and open, and to protect children and vulnerable people from harm. We will be risk-based, proportionate and fair in our approach to regulation, and our processes will be as streamlined and efficient as possible. But we will not hesitate to use our extensive legal powers to prosecute any illegal gambling activity, or to take action against licensed operators who fail to comply with the new rules we have set out." The key point is that licensed operators have to: to make sure gambling is fair and open Are you sure that it is open and fair to allow people who already know the result to operate? |
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The conclusion I drew from seeing Betfair let insiders hoover up money (Mikey eviction, under 50%, Lisa eviction, over 60%, to name two of them) is that I feel far more pessimistic about other events on here.
What safeguards are there? Do Bf actually care on any event if its users have at times a 0% chance of winning a bet? I've found it hard to reach any conclusion that they would care. The last time I can remember Bf announcing they were doing something against insiders was 12 months ago, in what was actually a botched PR gaffe. I had had no idea about the 120,000 the insiders had taken out of the Bf markets (which made front page news), and I felt the Mark Davies interview on Radio 5 was a disaster. I think Bf saw the chance to make some PR that they were being tough on **s. The reality was that no law was being broken, and the announcement that Betfair had had **s on all its reality tv markets was clearly false. Lots of the markets don't depend on a phone vote, so it was a real surprise they announced the insiders had been betting on all specials markets. They hadn't. |
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frog 23 Sep 14:19
Dj, Who says that it is not illegal? Betfair. I've asked them. |
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''I know who knows the result, I know how, and at times I knew the result.''
Why don't you go to the press with this ? |
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because its the press who know the result. that's how i knew.
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what i don't know is who was making 95 to 98% of the money hoovering bets after the result was known.
i do know who was making 2 to 5% of the money from bets being hoovered after the result was known. very sad to see. |
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Surely a rival rag would be interested or are they all at it ?
If not what about TV ? |
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eh? some of the press know the result of betfair markets whilst the market is still live and being bet on. lots of others who are not press also know the result. i have no idea who is behind it leaking into the betfair markets, but i do think its sad that Bf profit from it.
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Maybe the special markets are not really suited to betting. Would it be better if the Gambling Commission put a stop to betting on these events?
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X Factor is fine - even if someone had the phone vote, it would still then hinge on the judge's decision who gets evicted.
The Match is fine. Big Brother has a particular problem where the lines are closed, and then there is a delay until the result is announced. At this time people smash in to the Bf markets knowing the result, and Bf cash in (shortsightedly) by taking a cut of this (legal) inside money. Markets should be suspended once the result has been decided, not at time of announcement. |
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As Morris said liquidity is everything. As long as you can bet here at same/ bigger odds than elsewhere change nothing. It is the government that would like a percentage of big winners earnings. You can win 100 k + a year on here and pay zero tax , they dont like it.
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Liquidity may not be such an issue in the long run though. The markets are still growing at a significant rate, and even in a year or two, markets with thin or middling liquidity may well be a lot more densely populated.
Lifetime winnings should be taxed if someone achieves them, but gambling winnings cannot be taxed fairly in the yearly cycle, without having a tax refund on losses. The government raises enough T from the gambling industry, and this is just an anomaly which to my mind it would be immoral to erase (the cost of collection would far exceed the revenue gained from doing so). |
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I think it would be very much worth Betfair's while to spend money where linked identical bets are shown in more than one market.
There is no reason why someone wanting to back no next goal at evens, shouldn't have their bet submitted into both the next goal market, and the over/under 1.5 goals, if the current score is 1-0 or 0-1. it could then be matched by another user looking at either of the two identical markets. |
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Liquidity will always be an issue. If you can have a million on the fav. high rollers that currently stick to casinos etc. can be catered for.
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Perhaps commission rates could be reversed.
The you win, the more commission you pay. |
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At last weve found whos behind w b X
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Banned in 1969 but not given a 2nd look now-Je T'aime.
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what's w b x?
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DJ, No Goal and goal lines are not identical. If have a position on u/o1.5, your only hedging options is the other line, on No Goal, I could back No Goal and Lay Osasuna Next goal so that I have a big red under it and 0 under Betis while I've added green to my initial back. I can probably think of other differences, but that's off the top of my head and should be fairly obvious I wouldn't want my no goal back to be matched on o/u1.5 for similar reasons. Flexability on both markets is not the same.
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good point zeeny, fair play :)
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was going to say the same bets should be on o/u 1.5 goals and the total goals markets, but one is 5% and one is 1% :).
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DJ Sunset 23 Sep 17:07
what's w b x? Weetabix |
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..its a good point about the same goal markets, as the new pointless over/under markets are having an effect on liquidity and ease of betting, the total goals already duplicated it and now its duplicated again.......WHY ?????
Good to have some sensible discussion on the these forums, who is this DJ Sunset ? ;) |
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Yeah who is he? Is there purchance a website where we could learn more about this person?
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>Good to have some sensible discussion on the these forums, who is this DJ Sunset ?
Please don't encourage him :( |
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The sad but seeming inevitable decision that I expect someone at Betfair to make soon is to ditch specials completely.
Betfair have taken a cut and profited from the insider bets on specials, Betfair have allowed them to keep betting week after week, which damages the health of their markets, and given the choice to take simple steps to clean it up, or scrap them completely, I expect the interests of genuine punters to come last again. |
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Catflappo and The Betfairy,
At no point on this thread have I advocated Betfair banning/restricting winners - all I've done is give the rationale for why they might do one day. ''CAT, are you really saying that if you started up your own exchange you would remove successful accounts?'' Smile - that's my favourite line of the day. IF I ever start my own exchange, Catflappo, I'll be sure to let you know. |
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If you do ever open an Exchange will you have a leaderboard of winning accounts and ask losers to vote for them to be banned?
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The Betfairy 23 Sep 18:44
If you do ever open an Exchange will you have a leaderboard of winning accounts and ask losers to vote for them to be banned? Not sure if this question is at me, but I've posted four or five times that I'm tired of people not reading what I've said on this thread, and advocated that there is sound logic for Bf to change its pricing mechanism to extract more money from those who can most afford to pay, and less money from those towards the margin (and encourage fresh custom by making it cheaper to use for mugs). |
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DJ, that was meant for my friend CAT who proposed such an idea earlier in the thread (I still think it was tongue-in-cheek :))
What you are suggesting is like a Tesco Club Card. A loyalty card to encourage customers to continue shopping, thereby generating more sales, more turnover, and ultimately more profit. The only difference is that your loyalty card works in revers. The more you spend the more Tesco charges. Can't quite see that catching on. However, seeing as we have no alternative there is little we can do about it, and that is the very sad irony. |