Corners betting based on stats

Hi, where are you getting those stats from?

Calculated them in excel using poisson and spread bettin companies, basic, but something i've been playing around with

Oh right thanks, had much success?

where do you get your stats from Charles?

Right, going to have to keep faith with my statistical methods and a dull bet tonight

Bet 16: AC Milan v Genoa lay 13 and over @ 3.75 (£5.80 wins £2.00)

Backers taking under 3/1 on something that has happened a combined 3/16 times this season with these teams.

http://www.simplesoccerstats.com/MiniConsole.html

DAN

Should also be backing under 10 at 2.42 really but don't fancy two bets on this stuff.

0 at half time :0

6 ft - 3-3 - well done on the tie viva, wish i'd followed OR atleast the lay of Milan at 1.38 like I was thinking. ffs

...good 'ere innit?

Bet 1: Liverpool v Wolves - lay over 12 @ 2.32 £5 :) (8) + £3.60
Bet 2: Arsenal v Villa £5 laying over 12 @ 2.48 (wins £3.21) :( (14) - £5.00
Bet 3: Arsenal to win the corners match bet £5 @ 1.34 :) (10 - 4) + £1.61
Bet 4. Hull v Man Utd match bet - Man Utd to win £5 @ 1.4 :) (12) + £1.90
Bet 5: Hull v Man Utd lay over 12 @ 2.90 :) (5-7) + £2.50
Bet 6: Hull v Man Utd under 10 :( (12) - £5.00
Bet 7: Aston Villa v Liverpool - Liverpool to win the corners match bet £5 @ 2.06 (8-10) :) + £5.04
Bet 8: Villa v Liverpool Laying 9 and under @ 3.8 £5.91 to win £2.00 (18) :) + £2.00
Bet 9: Pompey v Arsenal Lay over 12 £5 @ 2.38 :) (12) + £3.44
Bet 10: Arsenal to win the corners match bet £5 @ 1.48 :) (2-10) + £2.28
Bet 11: Reading v Liverpool, Reading to win corners match bet £5 @ 5.5 :) (5-3) + £21.38
Bet 12: Man United v Leeds - Leeds to win the corners match bet £2.50 @ 21.0 :( (8-3) - £2.50
Bet 13: Tranmere v Wolves £5 @ 1.6 Wovles to win the corners match bet :( (8-7) - £5.00
Bet 14: Barca v Sevilla - laying 9 and under @ 2.86 (£4.98 to win £2.55) :) (14) + £2.55
Bet 15: Barca v Sevilla - laying Barca match bet £5 @ 1.47 (wins £10.10) :) (7-7) + £10.10
Bet 16: AC Milan v Genoa - laying over 12 £5.80 wins £2.00) :) (3-3) + £2.00


P + L + £40.90

Hi STP,
The 13. odd figure at the top. Is that from the spread betting company or using average figures from Milan and Genoa. Good thread this Charles

just looking at the stats for the West Brom Game tonight and it looks like the bet is a lay of 13 or more at 2.6.

Hi Dan, didn't realise there was a match tonight, looked at the stats and I agree - then looked at the count and see it's 5 after 66 mins, damn it!!

dont worry charles we have all weekend :D

true but isn't it always the case that you miss a winning bet but rarely one that loses? :D

Too many games getting called off this weekend :(

Might've laid West Brom on the match bet though looking at the stats though....

11 corners now :0

wow that was close :0

wd :)

phew

Birmingham v Man Utd up next - I don't really need to write it up as anyone following can work out what my picks will be without me writing it :^0

But I will anyway, give me a second.

Over 12: Man Utd 1/10 away, Birmingham 4/10 at home - 5/20, yet can be laid 2.52

Under 10: Man Utd 5/10 away, Birmingham 4/10 - 9/20 total, currently 3.45 to back

^^ Both stonking value therefore

Corners Match Bet: Man Utd won it 8/10 away, Brum only 3/10 at home, Man Utd at 1.5 here appears a good bet if you can get matched.

Should probably wait as odds will go in my favour later on but

Bet 17: Birmingham v Man Utd laying 13 and over @ 2.52 (£4.99 wins £3.12)

Bet 18: Birmingham v Man Utd - United to win the match bet £5 @ 1.5

Bet 18 currently unmatched.

Arsenal v Everton

Arsenal homes 1/9 over 12, Everton aways 2/9. - 3/18 - 2.72 to lay

Bet 19: Arsenal v Everton lay over 12 @ 2.72 (£4.99 wins £2.75)

i shall be laying over 13 in both games , good luck to us both :D

good luck I agree!

3 odds on bets for me, need all to come in for profit :0

2 at half time in Arsenal match, both to Everton - wish I'd taken the 18s on Everton now :^0 Did consider it looking at Everton's stats (5/9 aways) but their records at United and Chelsea put me off.

An interesting thread this one, good stuff Charles.

I've laid the 13 myself. Usually go low on Arsenal and high on Man. utd. Mostly based on these teams unwillingness/willingness to shoot from outside the box.

that late Everton goal was killer there. Was 8.0 on over 11 just before I lost internet connection. Should've gone green :0

p.s matched on Man Utd 1.5

What does matched on Man Utd @ 1.5 mean? Your laying them to win Corners Outright or Match Odds outright??

My mistake, just read your post from earlier!

I might at least win one bet today :D

This is awful. Goals going in at the wrong end all over the place. Why couldn't United just get a nice early goal and defend? This finishes on about 17 I reckon.

Bet 21: Inter v Siena laying Inter Corners match bet £2.50 @ 1.39 and backing Siena £2.50 @ 5.2

Siena on the corners match bet is stonking value here - Siena won 6/8 away from home, Inter lost 4/9 at home.

IMO, besides looking at the idividual club stats, you should take into account the overall stats for relevant league. Those stats are IMO more important than the individual team stats. GL.

kenilworth, I'm afraid that is too time consuming and I'm not funny sure what stats you mean?

funny? * fully

3-4 full time, get the ** in there!!

Bet 17: Birmingham v Man Utd laying 13 and over @ 2.52 (£4.99 wins £3.12) :( - £4.99 (14)
Bet 18: Birmingham v Man Utd - United to win the match bet £5 @ 1.5 :) + £2.38 (2-12)
Bet 19: Arsenal v Everton lay over 12 @ 2.72 (£4.99 wins £2.75) :( (14) - £4.99
Bet 20: Inter v Siena laying Inter Corners match bet £2.50 @ 1.39 and backing Siena £2.50 @ 5.2 :) + £16.06 (3-4)

nice 1 charles siena looked outstanding

Bet 1: Liverpool v Wolves - lay over 12 @ 2.32 £5 :) (8) + £3.60
Bet 2: Arsenal v Villa £5 laying over 12 @ 2.48 (wins £3.21) :( (14) - £5.00
Bet 3: Arsenal to win the corners match bet £5 @ 1.34 :) (10 - 4) + £1.61
Bet 4. Hull v Man Utd match bet - Man Utd to win £5 @ 1.4 :) (12) + £1.90
Bet 5: Hull v Man Utd lay over 12 @ 2.90 :) (5-7) + £2.50
Bet 6: Hull v Man Utd under 10 :( (12) - £5.00
Bet 7: Aston Villa v Liverpool - Liverpool to win the corners match bet £5 @ 2.06 (8-10) :) + £5.04
Bet 8: Villa v Liverpool Laying 9 and under @ 3.8 £5.91 to win £2.00 (18) :) + £2.00
Bet 9: Pompey v Arsenal Lay over 12 £5 @ 2.38 :) (12) + £3.44
Bet 10: Arsenal to win the corners match bet £5 @ 1.48 :) (2-10) + £2.28
Bet 11: Reading v Liverpool, Reading to win corners match bet £5 @ 5.5 :) (5-3) + £21.38
Bet 12: Man United v Leeds - Leeds to win the corners match bet £2.50 @ 21.0 :( (8-3) - £2.50
Bet 13: Tranmere v Wolves £5 @ 1.6 Wovles to win the corners match bet :( (8-7) - £5.00
Bet 14: Barca v Sevilla - laying 9 and under @ 2.86 (£4.98 to win £2.55) :) (14) + £2.55
Bet 15: Barca v Sevilla - laying Barca match bet £5 @ 1.47 (wins £10.10) :) (7-7) + £10.10
Bet 16: AC Milan v Genoa - laying over 12 £5.80 wins £2.00) :) (3-3) + £2.00
Bet 17: Birmingham v Man Utd laying 13 and over @ 2.52 (£4.99 wins £3.12) :( - £4.99 (14)
Bet 18: Birmingham v Man Utd - United to win the match bet £5 @ 1.5 :) + £2.38 (2-12)
Bet 19: Arsenal v Everton lay over 12 @ 2.72 (£4.99 wins £2.75) :( (14) - £4.99
Bet 20: Inter v Siena laying Inter Corners match bet £2.50 @ 1.39 and backing Siena £2.50 @ 5.2 :) + £16.06 (3-4)

P + L + £49.36

kingscrewed agreed, really felt for them at the end there, they deserved to win.

very good so far :D

the real value seems to be in the match bets, well done Charles.

Thanks Brian :)

Dan, you might be right. If I could be bothered I'd take out the match bet wins and see my p + l - might look alot worse.

you're right Dan, take away profits and loss from match bets and the thread is - £3.89 ;)

Charles the average corners per match in, say the Premier League which may be around 10.5. A very important stat, one which every Premier League side contributes to, home and away against each other.

Charles, my post was in response to your post at 10:33.

Kenilworth whilst that may be an interesting stat, how do I use it when coming to a decision as to what to bet?

Kenilworth whilst that may be an interesting stat, how do I use it when coming to a decision as to what to bet?

Not an interesting stat, but IMO a crucial stat in as much I would expect stats over 9 and 10 matches more likely to pull back towards the overall stats, but you think the most recent figures to be the most important and betting accordingly. Why don't the markets think the same as you ? Do you really think they have got it wrong ? If you do, GL.

Kenilworth are you suggesting that, say the average is 10.5 but the current average this season is 12.5 that for the rest of the season the stats are going to be lower so as to reach that average of 10.5? Similar to that overs/unders thread on here?

Or are you saying that the odds offered are based on much longer statistics yet I am only using the very most recent stats?

Either way, yes I am only using the very most recent stats as they are to me the most relevant to how a team is set up/performs re corners. Corners betting is almost entirely dependant upon personnel and tactics. For example, Man Utd used to be a surefire corners winning team with Ronaldo. They now play a totally different style. To look at stats from last season would to me be almost irrelevant.

Sorry if I have missed your point!

You betting on Hamilton v Rangers Charles?

Every Hamilton home game this season has been under 10 which can be backed @ 2.8.

Good luck with this thread.

thanks fouraces, interesting stat but probably leave it as haven't had time to look. Good luck though

although will use it for my other thread ;)

Charles, from your examples, 10.5 and 12.5, I would expect the team in question to be nearer the former than the latter, perhaps around 11.3. I don't see how stats previous to the most recent figures, can be completely discarded. Anyway, so far you are making it pay, so perhaps you are right and the various odds compilers are wrong !!

Leicester v Ipswich

Leicester 6/12 over 12 Ipswich 5/11 over 12 - 2.38 looks a good pick for over 12

Corners match - Ipswich only lost corners bets 3/11 away from home, Leicester won 8/12, might be some value in Laying Leicester match bet or backing Ippo

Juventus v AC Milan

Over 12: Juve 2/9 over Milan 5/8 - 3.35 big price if matched

Under 10: 3 each - total 6/17 - odds about right

Match Bet

Juve 5/9 wins, AC 5/8 wins - not happy backing either at current odds

Hamilton v Rangers ended with 8 so stats win again.

nice work fouraces

Lost internet connection

On Ipswich corners match bet £5 @ 3.5

Over 12 @ 2.36

Bet 23: Juve v Milan - over 12 £5 @ 3.35

Bet 24: Real Madrid v Mallorca £2.50 laying Real Madrid 1.38 and £2.50 backing Mallorca 4.7

Mallorca won 5/8 aways, Madrid won 3/8 at home

Bet 23: Juve v Milan - over 12 £5 @ 3.35

Bet 24: Real Madrid v Mallorca £2.50 laying Real Madrid 1.38 and £2.50 backing Mallorca 4.7

Mallorca won 5/8 aways, Madrid won 3/8 at home

internet driving me mad today - placing bets to be matched and then losing connection and unaware if I'm matched or not during the matches.

Currently unmatched on the back of Malorca but got the lay of Madrid part matched.

Both Ipswich match bets won though - BOOOOM :)

Bet 1: Liverpool v Wolves - lay over 12 @ 2.32 £5 :) (8) + £3.60
Bet 2: Arsenal v Villa £5 laying over 12 @ 2.48 (wins £3.21) :( (14) - £5.00
Bet 3: Arsenal to win the corners match bet £5 @ 1.34 :) (10 - 4) + £1.61
Bet 4. Hull v Man Utd match bet - Man Utd to win £5 @ 1.4 :) (12) + £1.90
Bet 5: Hull v Man Utd lay over 12 @ 2.90 :) (5-7) + £2.50
Bet 6: Hull v Man Utd under 10 :( (12) - £5.00
Bet 7: Aston Villa v Liverpool - Liverpool to win the corners match bet £5 @ 2.06 (8-10) :) + £5.04
Bet 8: Villa v Liverpool Laying 9 and under @ 3.8 £5.91 to win £2.00 (18) :) + £2.00
Bet 9: Pompey v Arsenal Lay over 12 £5 @ 2.38 :) (12) + £3.44
Bet 10: Arsenal to win the corners match bet £5 @ 1.48 :) (2-10) + £2.28
Bet 11: Reading v Liverpool, Reading to win corners match bet £5 @ 5.5 :) (5-3) + £21.38
Bet 12: Man United v Leeds - Leeds to win the corners match bet £2.50 @ 21.0 :( (8-3) - £2.50
Bet 13: Tranmere v Wolves £5 @ 1.6 Wovles to win the corners match bet :( (8-7) - £5.00
Bet 14: Barca v Sevilla - laying 9 and under @ 2.86 (£4.98 to win £2.55) :) (14) + £2.55
Bet 15: Barca v Sevilla - laying Barca match bet £5 @ 1.47 (wins £10.10) :) (7-7) + £10.10
Bet 16: AC Milan v Genoa - laying over 12 £5.80 wins £2.00) :) (3-3) + £2.00
Bet 17: Birmingham v Man Utd laying 13 and over @ 2.52 (£4.99 wins £3.12) :( (14) - £4.99
Bet 18: Birmingham v Man Utd - United to win the match bet £5 @ 1.5 :) (2-12) + £2.38
Bet 19: Arsenal v Everton lay over 12 @ 2.72 (£4.99 wins £2.75) :( (14) - £4.99
Bet 20: Inter v Siena laying Inter Corners match bet £2.50 @ 1.39 and backing Siena £2.50 @ 5.2 :) (3-4) + £16.06
Bet 21: Leicester v Ipswich. Ipswich to win the corners match bet £5 @ 3.50 :) (8-10) + £11.88
Bet 22: Leicester v Ipswich over 12 £5 @ 2.36 :) (18) + £6.46

P + L + £67.70

ok matched.

My luck has to run out soon, think it will do here.

Bet 24: Real Madrid v Mallorca £2.50 laying Real Madrid 1.38 and £2.50 backing Mallorca 4.7

Whats the thinking behind that? Why do both

Charles, You are doing very well. GL.

The thinking is the odds on Madrid are too low so must be laid and the odds for Mallorca are too high so must be backed (statistically speaking)

Gives you two chances of the win too, as a tie gives a win as well as a Mallorca outright win. (obviously!) Combining with the tie would mean a loss of stake if either event won.

Kenilworth thanks. Going well at the moment, but I'm not naive enough to think a losing run isn't around the corner.

Fair enough :) easy trade out for you now

looks like I've got a shocking price for over 12 in AC match, 3.75 now :0

Real Bet going down the pan from 1-3 up :(

Bet 25: Tenerife v Barca laying over 12 @ 3.05 (£4.98 wins £2.31)

Barca aways never gone over 12 this season, only 2/8 for Tenerife

Bet 1: Liverpool v Wolves - lay over 12 @ 2.32 £5 :) (8) + £3.60
Bet 2: Arsenal v Villa £5 laying over 12 @ 2.48 (wins £3.21) :( (14) - £5.00
Bet 3: Arsenal to win the corners match bet £5 @ 1.34 :) (10 - 4) + £1.61
Bet 4. Hull v Man Utd match bet - Man Utd to win £5 @ 1.4 :) (12) + £1.90
Bet 5: Hull v Man Utd lay over 12 @ 2.90 :) (5-7) + £2.50
Bet 6: Hull v Man Utd under 10 :( (12) - £5.00
Bet 7: Aston Villa v Liverpool - Liverpool to win the corners match bet £5 @ 2.06 (8-10) :) + £5.04
Bet 8: Villa v Liverpool Laying 9 and under @ 3.8 £5.91 to win £2.00 (18) :) + £2.00
Bet 9: Pompey v Arsenal Lay over 12 £5 @ 2.38 :) (12) + £3.44
Bet 10: Arsenal to win the corners match bet £5 @ 1.48 :) (2-10) + £2.28
Bet 11: Reading v Liverpool, Reading to win corners match bet £5 @ 5.5 :) (5-3) + £21.38
Bet 12: Man United v Leeds - Leeds to win the corners match bet £2.50 @ 21.0 :( (8-3) - £2.50
Bet 13: Tranmere v Wolves £5 @ 1.6 Wovles to win the corners match bet :( (8-7) - £5.00
Bet 14: Barca v Sevilla - laying 9 and under @ 2.86 (£4.98 to win £2.55) :) (14) + £2.55
Bet 15: Barca v Sevilla - laying Barca match bet £5 @ 1.47 (wins £10.10) :) (7-7) + £10.10
Bet 16: AC Milan v Genoa - laying over 12 £5.80 wins £2.00) :) (3-3) + £2.00
Bet 17: Birmingham v Man Utd laying 13 and over @ 2.52 (£4.99 wins £3.12) :( (14) - £4.99
Bet 18: Birmingham v Man Utd - United to win the match bet £5 @ 1.5 :) (2-12) + £2.38
Bet 19: Arsenal v Everton lay over 12 @ 2.72 (£4.99 wins £2.75) :( (14) - £4.99
Bet 20: Inter v Siena laying Inter Corners match bet £2.50 @ 1.39 and backing Siena £2.50 @ 5.2 :) (3-4) + £16.06
Bet 21: Leicester v Ipswich. Ipswich to win the corners match bet £5 @ 3.50 :) (8-10) + £11.88
Bet 22: Leicester v Ipswich over 12 £5 @ 2.36 :) (18) + £6.46
Bet 23: Juve v Milan - over 12 £5 @ 3.35 :) (17) + £11.16
Bet 24: Real Madrid v Mallorca £2.50 laying Real Madrid 1.38 and £2.50 backing Mallorca 4.7 :( (6-4) - £5.00
Bet 25: Tenerife v Barca laying over 12 @ 3.05 (£4.98 wins £2.31) :) (4) + £2.31


P + L + £76.17

Charles, the losing run is always 'round the corner' even with the best systems. If you have faith in whatever you are doing just grit your teeth and see it through. GL

This could be The Holy Grail

lol tobermory, if it were the Holy Grail thank fook only about 5 people are reading :D

Tremendous stuff Charles and a real thought provoker for me. Your margin of profit appears very good as well. Keep this thread up please everyone. Its fascinating and interesting to read.

Beanswithgravy thanks, I hope you can make some profit using similar methods but don't take all the best prices please ;)

Not sure I'm going to keep the thread going tbh, if I can get to £100 profit fairly soon I'll have convinced myself there is money to be made (or atleast fewer losses than in match odds) and will have achieved what I set out to do, so I won't have a need to keep it going. Also, as someone said earlier if there really is money to be made it would be foolish to highlight it to too many others.

To late Charlie, im on ;)

Liverpool v Reading

Over 12: Liverpool 4/10, Reading 6/12 - total 10/22 - odds 2.3 (odds correct)

Under 10: Liverpool 3/10, Reading 1/12 - total 4/22 - odds to lay 3.9 (value lay)

Match bet: Liverpool 9/10, Reading 3/12 - odds 1.12 - 1.19 (not worth it but surely a cert)

Slight issue with this match is the Liverpool line up - if it is a reserve line up the previous stats go out the window.

Daveyboymoyes :^0 - good luck.

Layed 9 or less earlier :)

Bet 26: Liverpool v Reading Laying 9 and under £5.91 @ 3.8 (wins £2)

Daveyboymoyes you read my mind :^0 Good pick ;)

I think my methods are pretty obvious now, could quite easily predict what I will pick without me writing it up.

laying under 9s in this. Need to get back on track as rails have come off the last couple of niights .Layed unders on Cov v Ports & City v Blackburn and both lost.

Cov was amazing, thankfully I was on Pompey match bet but did consider over 9 but didn't like the odds.

Bet 26: Liverpool v Reading Laying 9 and under £5.91 @ 3.8 (wins £2) :( (8) - £5.91

Can't complain, should've left the cup alone, although it won me nicely in the first leg for this fixture.

daveyboy what are you tonight then?

Thinkin about taking 11/10 on over 10 in the Ath Madrid match at s james.

Davey, any good matches this week?

Charles, are you around?

Guess not. Going out now. Take a look at the Palermo game. Good odds at s james.

sorry davey, win the bet in the end?

Yes mate, would of won more but there was a corner at the end of the first half and the ref blew up so they didn't award it. P1sses me off that. You about?

is this thread going anymore ?

not really no

might start this up again soon.

You should.

I am convinced that laying "no corners" should be a winning strategy on English football even if you need to lay at 1,000.00 every time.

Have a look at the price traded on the Man U Chelski game. Silly.

I've noticed you get some interesting prices on corners that don't add up when you look at the stats. Might be something in this, let's see. Level stakes.

Bet 1: Liverpool v Wolves - lay over 12 @ 2.32 5 (wins 3.60)

4/9 Liverpool homes gone over 12
2/9 Wolves away gone over 12

How is this a clear favourite?


Because the prices are not based on participants record at home and away respectivelyas you do.