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The going being "in between" ( SOFT - HEAVY IN PLACES) makes this race very very difficult to guess on.
As it is NOVICE CLASS 3 race I would be looking at younger horses ...say 5 yods ...to see if any might figure in finish....especially if SOFT going.......the HEAVY aspect may stop them winning though....Just a very difficult race T. PLAYING THE FIELD is "interesting" as first time over hurdles.....has some French breeding in it and from a family of staying chase type horses..........so going might be fine for it. So having small ew on that one ... What puts me off race is fact there are owners with more than 1 horse in race......always tends to put me off race........I know this happens all the time in better class races , but I just it a "confusing" factor. Not putting much on this race , as just a very competitive race on "in between" going......but your one appears worth a shout at good odds so having small bet on that too.........as well as on owner's other horse!!!! GL T |
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2.30 Taunton
With plenty of money for Wishfull Thinking this morning, the drifting Express Leader is now worth a bet at 10/3. The money horse was quite impressive last time out, but he's penalised for that, and the Nicholls horse ran in a better race when 3rd at Chepstow over xmas. He's a strong puller and his stamina gave way in the last quarter mile there; hopefully Christian Williams can hold on to him for a bit longer on this slightly better ground. Bank = 2411 Available odds: 10/1 (P o w e r) My odds: 3/1 (25%) Stake = 59.73 (say £60 win) |
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Available odds 10/1?
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10/3 you mean of course, just keeping it right for the future :D
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sorry Lori, yes 10/3! 10/1 - we can dream.
Unfortuantley P o w e r wld only lay me to lose £100 (to a £30 stake) so I've had to top up on here and luckily got most of it on at 4.5: Express Leader 4 £0.54 £1.62 Ref: 9917719495 Bet matched:10:50 21-Jan-10 4.5 £4.46 £15.61 Ref: 9917685463 Bet matched:10:36 21-Jan-10 4.5 £10.66 £37.31 Ref: 9917685018 Bet matched:10:36 21-Jan-10 4.5 £14.34 £50.19 Ref: 9917685018 Bet matched:10:36 21-Jan-10 |
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Irish Arkle, Leopardstown (Sunday)
Sports Line produced a very smooth fencing debut at Navan back in November and at 4/1 is a tempting price for Sunday's big novice chase. Take The Breeze is respected on heavy ground, but Ruby has decided to ride Willie's horse, and I suspect they're quite sweet on him. Zaarito looked good over a longer trip recently but Sam Adams and Browns Bailey have both run since and done nothing for the form. I'd be more concerned about Major Finnegan who may be worth a little saver on the day. Bank = 2351 Available odds: 4/1 ( L a d b r o k e s ) My odds: 10/3 (23.08%) Stake = 90.51 (say £90 win) |
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Dear old Sports Line, I can barely recall a horse travelling and jumping so fluently, and coming away second best!
3.20 Fontwell Princely Hero was staying on last time out and may improve for this extra couple of furlongs. It's a tough race, of course, and they may have to set their sights lower, but at 33/1 on here it's is worth a small bet. Bank = 2261 Available odds: 33/1 My odds: 25/1 (3.85%) Stake (incl commission): 17.70 (say £10 win and £10 place at 7) |
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Very good odds B GL ....I put some on that one plus Amore Mio EW as main bet ( german breeding and lightly raced may do well in such a race)
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a shocking effort, DFC.
4.00 Sedgefield Don't often get involved in unraced individuals, but if Mocha is as good as James Ewart thinks, she really ought to be up to winning a mares bumper at Sedgefield. Bank = 2241 Available odds: 3/1 (b e t 3 6 5) My odds: 9/4 (30.77%) Stake = 172.41 (say £170 win) |
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Yet another difficult race B. MARES only ......so this factor makes it harder to weigh up.
The weight factor on the going favours 4 yods........and SALLY'S IDEA is "interesting" now running further than when finishing 4th first time out. However, MOCHA , being French bred does stand out in a poor field of runners. Just doing small bets on above 2...to win.... GL with this one looks a "good" bet. |
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WALOFS - the worst selection on this thread by a country mile.
1.50 Huntingdon This looks a poor race. Henderson usually has his horses well schooled, and his Great Reason is the clear each-way challenger to Mille Chief. The latter should of course win, and Alan King's yard is finally where it should be, but I don't usually mind taking on penalised juveniles in older company. Bank = 2041 Available odds: 5/1 ( B e t 3 6 5 , S t a n J a m e s ) My odds: 9/2 (18.18%) Stake = 37.06 (say £20 e/w) |
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apologies: bank = 2071.
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A few quid returned there on best odds guaranteed (13/2), but for the purposes of this thread I'll settle at 5/1 and money back.
Bank = 2071 |
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Cheltenham Special
Dunguib's SP in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle to be 13/8 or bigger (7/1 at P o w e r). (non runner no bet) The key race is the Deloitte Hurdle at Leopardstown on 7 February. Decent animals may dodge Dunguib here, but the early entries suggest we can expect a much stronger field than we saw in the Royal Bond. Look how deplorably Some Present & Sweeps Hill ran at the Xmas Festival and it doesn't take long to write off the Royal Bond as a poor Gd 1. If Dunguib slams everything in the Deloitte, and they decide to stick to the novice route, he'll be sent off the shortest Supreme Novices fav in a generation and this bet will go down. But if he's made to work hard, and people start to question his jumping or the wisdom of sticking with his inexperienced rider, there's a fair chance he'll start shorter than 13/8. In the last 20 years just one horse has been sent off shorter than that (Youlneverwalkalone in 2000). Bank = 2071 Available odds: 7/1 My odds: 6/1 (14.29%) Stake = 42.37 (say £40) |
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* there's a fair chance he'll start 13/8 or bigger
FFS |
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3.40 Ffos Las
Swincombe Rock has drifted out to a backable price on here, possibly due to David Pipe's success so far today: his horse in this race was backed this morning. The Alner horse is inexperienced but has run so far as if a step up to 3m should suit and he's been given what looks a fair mark for his 1st hcap. Bank = 2031 Available odds: 5.9 My odds: 4/1 (20%) Stake (incl 5% commission) = 57.16 (say £50 win) |
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How much total do you have on Ante Post Bets now?
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3.15 Newbury
Backed a few horses recently expecting them to improve for a step up in trip, but they've run deplorably. Here we are again today with Aim For The Stars, who's also been shaping as if 3m is what he wants. Even if it is, this company may yet prove too hot, but I think he's worth a small bet at 20/1. Bank = 1981 (+135 tied-up) Odds: 20/1 (3 6 5 , F r e d) My odds: 16/1 (5.88%) Stake = 23.26 (say £10 e/w) |
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£135, tobermory.
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a truly horrific round of jumping!
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Deloitte Novice Hurdle, Leopardstown (Sunday)
We can't be sure that Whodoyouthink will turn up at Leopardstown on Sunday, but the indications following his runaway win at the Xmas Festival have always been that he'd give it a go, unless the ground came up very heavy. The ground isn't quite that bad (yet!) and at 28/1 with 3 places up for grabs it's worth a speculative each-way bet now. He was quite impressive last time out, and it's high time something put Dunguib's jumping under pressure. Bank = 1961 (plus 135 tied-up ante-post) Available odds: 28/1 ( H i l l ) My odds: 20/1 (4.76%) Stake = 26.64 (say £13 e/w) |
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1.20 Doncaster
They couldn't have found a much more difficult novice chase, but Emperor Concerto was impressive enough on his fencing debut last time out to justify a small interest at 12.5 on here. Bank = 1935 Available odds: 12.5 (betfair) My odds: 10/1 (9.09%) Stake (incl 5% commission): 14.87 (say £15 win) |
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2.50 Lingfield
Interesting novice chase. Chariot Charger & Great Endeavour were decent over hurdlles but haven't yet delivered what seemed likely when put over fences. That leaves two iffy jumpers Backbenscher and Nomechki, and its the latter who (when he's remained upright) has shown a touch of class, and at 3/1 is worth a bet to defy the penalties. Bank = 1920 Available odds: 3/1 ( C o r a l ) My odds: 11/4 (26.67%) Stake = 42.75 (say £40 win) |
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4.40 Huntingdon
Some decent yards represented here, but Brixen sets a decent standard on her strong staying effort on the fibresand at Southwell last time, in a manner that suggested she'd act OK on soft turf. Bank = 1880 Available odds: 8.8 (betfair) My odds: 13/2 (13.33%) Stake (incl commission) = 30.71 (say £30 win) |
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1.35 Bangor
Wasn't expecting to get involved in this but the 7/1 is a little on the generous side about My Shamwari, who ran OK in a much stronger race at Newbury last time, despite pulling hard. The Henderson favourite here may well be good enough, but he's no Master of the Hall. Bank =1850 Availble odds: 7/1 ( F r e d ) My odds: 6/1( 14.29%) Stake = 37.85 (say £20 e/w) |
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3.00 Exeter
Najaf has the French form to win this but has to adapt to English conditions. Maggio was running a fairly decent horse close last time out when coming down at the last flight, and also gets a bit of weight from most of these. Bank = 1858 Available odds: 11/1 My odds: 9/1 (10%) Stake = 33.78 (say £15 e/w) |
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Supreme Novices Hurdle, 16 March
Never be afraid to take on one horse and all that. Oscar Whisky is still a generous 16/1 for a horse that's never been off the bridle in the course of an unblemished career. And who knows, they may yet see sense and put Dunguib in the Champion! Bank = 1828 Available odds: 16/1 (gen) My odds: 12/1 (7.69%) Kelly = 35.11 (say 17.50 e/w) |
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ttt
Just been searching through threads on kelly staking and this one has been a good read baccy. Been thinking of trying it myself but find it difficult sometimes to come up with a price. e.g. a couple of weeks ago backed a horse that had switched trainer since his last run. On his best form for previous trainer he'd have had a stone or more in hand of his mark but he had become very disappointing and on his most recent efforts he had little chance. The horse drifted right out and I only had a small interest. The question is would I be best to price up the horses chance on his best form and hope the trainer has him back to his best or would I be better pricing him up somewhere in bewtween his best form and his more recent poor form? |
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somewhere in between i'd say.
Good Luck with your Cheltenham Bets Bacchanal . Any chance you could list your AP ones that are still running? |
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yes that is probably best tobermory.
For years I have just been betting with my instincts and I study the form look at the prices and something just stands out and it has worked pretty well but recently I thought I would try putting in ratings I thought each runner would produce on the day and have a spreadsheet that works out the prices. For instance Quevega came out as a 1/3 chance today, mainly because I had the other fav in that race as being flattered by the win over Go Native and on her other form I felt she had a stone to find with Quevega. Although you could argue she was capable of better than that. The problem is trying to come up with a rating for each runner especially when they haven't run on similar ground or over the distance before and you have to make a guess. Anyway don't want to ruin the thread by rambling on, so good luck with the chelters bets bacchannal, I'll look in again in another time to see how you are getting on. |
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Sorry lads, not long returned from the Festival. Sadly no joy for the selections on this thread, with two of the five not showing up! Oscar Whisky, 4th at 16/1 e/w went closest, and might have made the money with a slicker round of jumping.
Steve G, if you made Quevega a 1/3 shot, Kelly would have guided you to staking 58% of your bank, assuming available odds of 6/4. As you probably know, she traded a good deal bigger than that in the run-up to the race. You'd have been richly rewarded, but of course 58% is a massive short-term commitment. Doing your own ratings is undoubtedly a sound way of pricing up your own book, but will also demand a big investment of time. You could refine your long-held "instinctive" approach by experimenting with Kelly: eg when a price stands out as being generous, say 10/1, have a look at what Kelly would suggest at a range of shorter odds, as follows: 9/1 = stake 1% of bank 8/1 = stake 2.2% of bank 7/1 = stake 3.75% of bank 6/1 = stake 5.7% of bank At shorter odds, say you think 7/2 is a generous price. Kelly would suggest you stake as follows, if "your odds" are: 3/1= stake 3.6% bank 11/4 = stake 5.7% of bank 5/2 = stake 8.2% of bank 9/4 = stake 11% of bank (I've rounded these to one decimal pace) As you can see, if your betting is generally concentrated at the shorter end of the market, there is much less margin for error. But I'd recommend some experimentation to see how Kelly suits you, perhaps with a small bank set aside. It may not suit you at all, or you may find it can be adapted to your own style. Or maybe, like me, you'll find that it works just fine the way it is. I am probably a lot more conservative than most in my assessment of "true odds" (a bad phrase this because we can't know the truth), and this has meant that I have seldom had to stake huge percentages of my bank. Only once did I stake over 10%. I'm going to start winding this thread down now, with a final balance at £1753. Having turned 1000 into 2000 it would have been good to kick on towards 4000 but it wasn't to be. Even so, I am now sure that a Kelly-based staking system is right for me, whilst accepting that it is definitely not the way forward for others. Thanks to everyone who has taken part in this exercise, and for your constructive approach. Thanks in particular to the supporters (you know who you are), and all the very best in your future punting. |
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Well done bacchanal.
A very enjoyable thread and seems a wise time to conclude it so you can go about your business now you're happy with where you're at. Thanks for posting :) |
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Well done Bach.......a very valuable contribution .......good luck with your future endeavours
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well done Bacchanal , one of the most intersting ( and succesful ) threads on here. :)
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Thanks for the detainled reply bacchanal, looking at those percentages the staking plan certainly does appeal to me. I shall look into it some more. cheers.
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