By:
I would have thought at the like of Southwell with the going pretty much standard all the time that the " horses for courses" approach would not actually work here......
|
By:
:)
|
By:
Mixed results from today's barrier draw for the big meeting at Sha Tin this Sunday.
In the mile Happy Zero has been posted wide. In the sprint California Flag has drawn box 4, while One World has been slotted out wide. You generally want a lowish number in all the races here, but the importance of the draw is so often exaggerated. The wide draw is not ideal for Happy Zero but in the mile the field has a good while to sort itself out before the home turn. The draw is probably more significant iin the sprint, and it could hardly have turned out better for California Flag. Not only has he copped a gate near the rail, but Laurel Guerreiro (the only other obvious horse in the field that likes to be right on the sharp end) has been posted out wide in 13. It'll be that bit more difficult for him to mess up the American grey's rhythm. |
By:
11.50 Doncaster
Hong Kong Harry was still in the mix when coming down 3 out at Ludlow. That form isn't great (let down by 2nd and 3rd) but 14/1 is just about an each-way price worth taking. Bank = 1916.80 (not including 115 tied up ante-post) Available odds: 14/1 (1st show) My odds : 11/1 (8.33%) Kelly = 34.16 (say £17 e/w) |
By:
3.00 Lingfield
Victorias Groom has shaped the last twice as if a step back to 2m 4f would suit and the ever astute Lucy Wadham is doing just that. He's won on the soft stuff before and seems now to be jumping with a lot more assurance. He takes on a small, inexperienced bunch today, which is good news in one way but also means that there may be something less exposed & ready to pounce. Bank = 1882.80 (not incl. 115 tied-up) Available odds: 5/2 (L a d b r o k e s) My odds: 9/2 (30.77%) Kelly stake = 57.95 (say £60 win) |
By:
2.50 Fairyhouse
Darbys Turn ran into some very decent novice chasers last time out. That form has worked out nicely, so at the exchange price he looks a fair price against what looks a less competitive field. He's easy to back on here but hopefully that's simply a reflection of the warmth of the fav. Bank = 1882.80 (not incl. 175 tied-up) Available odds: 9.8 (betfair) My odds: 7/1 (12.5) Kelly = 37.07 (say £35 win) |
By:
A few ante-post bets were settled today. I was wrong to think that the Japanese horse wouldn't have the gears to bustle up California Flag in the Hong Kong Sprint. CF is undoubtedly the quicker of the two, but the other horse's jockey kept on riding to ensure that the lead was contested, and after that the writing was on the wall. On the other hand, the fast pace played into the hands of One World, who finished with a rare old rattle to take 2nd and give a fair e/w return.
In the Mile Happy Zero ran a good race to fiinish 2nd but maybe didn't quite see out the trip. Good Ba Ba, trained to peak today, took him quite comfortably inside the final furlong. Here's a full update on recent results: old balance: £2091.25 27/11 Revelling £45 at 3/1 Lost - bank = £2046.25 28/11 Duc De Regniere £40.25 at 7/1 Lost - bank = £2006 02/12 Mr Warbucks £15 e/w at 12/1 Lost - bank = £1976 02/12 Aux Le Bahnn £60 win at 5/2 Lost - bank = £1916 04/12 California Flag £40 at 10/1 Lost - bank = £1876 04/12 One World £10 e/w at 66/1 Won £122 - bank = £1998 05/12 Somersby £40 at 4.1/1 Won £155.80 (after commission) - bank = £2153.80 06/12 Jaunty Journey £40 at 9/1 Lost - bank = £2113.80 07/12 Happy Zero £55 at 4/1 Lost - bank = £2058.80 11/12 Hong Kong Harry £17 e/w at 14/1 Lost - bank = £2024.80 12/12 Victorias Groom £60 at 5/2 Won £150 - bank = £2174.80 12/12 Darbys Turn £35 at 7.8/1 Lost - bank = £2139.80 (PS there was a typo on yesterday's post re Victorias Groom - I estimated his true odds at 9/4 and not the 9/2 posted.) |
By:
Top "tipping" B with One World finishing well at 66-1 SP .........................:D wd
|
By:
:D
|
By:
RACE 5: THE CATHAY PACIFIC HONG KONG SPRINT - 1200M (TURF TRACK) TIME : 1440 PRIZE MONEY : HK$12000000
Horse No Horse Name Win Dividend Place Dividend 1st 1 SACRED KINGDOM $13.00 $10.00 2nd 14 ONE WORLD $14.00 3rd 13 JOY AND FUN $44.00 4th 10 GREEN BIRDIE Evens and Odds ODD $15.00 Forecast 1-14 $38.00 Place Forecast 1-14 $13.00 1-13 $29.00 13-14 $56.00 Tierce 1-14-13 $655.00 Trio 1-13-14 $202.00 Quartet 1-14-13-10 $4,219.00 =================================================== Presumably the winner was the favourite in above race ?????? Do you ever do SFCS with FAV to beat a long odds shot bacchanal ? ( Especially when you believe a selection may well take fav on and might win etc Usually when you accept that fav has a fair chance to win other than your selection etc) Just a small stake SFC with fav in UK can pay excellent odds etc......though looking at above "forecast" return it was not good in that race :( Anyway ...just a brief thought! Gl with bets. |
By:
12.40 Hereford
No great confidence here, but San Marino is just big enough to tempt me in at 10/1. It won't be easy carrying a penalty against what looks a pretty useful field, but I thought the Exeter win was decisive enough. Whether the ground today is quite soft enough is another slight concern. Bank = 2139.80 Available odds: 10/1 (S J , B o y l e) My odds: 17/2 (10.53%) Stake = 33.87 (say £17.40 e/w) |
By:
Cheers DFC
Yeah, Sacred Kingdon was favourite - solidly backed by the Hong Kong faithful. He's able to stalk the pace and cruise to the lead, whereas One World only seems able to come with a late burst from a long way back. I do play forecasts from time to time (not on this thread though, because I don't see an easy way to "kelly" the combinations). I play exactas rather than the CSF, and usually get invoved in smallish fields, more often than not picking something to beat the fav into 2nd. |
By:
Long Walk Hurdle
The big question about Karabak is whether he'll get this step up to an extended 3m. I'm prepared to excuse the Aintree form since he wouldn't be the first horse to look weary there following a tough race at the Festival. He did seem to get up the hill OK in the Ballymore behind an impressive winner, so here's hoping. Also, he has decent form at Ascot. It's one of those bets where you'd be surprised if he proved good enough to beat Big Buck's but a bit disappointed if he failed to make the frame. Lough Derg will certainly expose any stamina doubts so it's going to be all about staying. Bank = 2105 Available odds: 12/1 (P o w e r) My odds: 10/1 (9.09%) Stake = 31.87 (say £15 e/w - which is just as well since P o w e r ' s max stake was literally just a few pennies more) |
By:
1.10 Uttoxeter
Never quite know how useful bumper horses will take to hurdling, so you're always taking a bit of a chance at shortish odds. But at least we have seen that Bescott Springs can gallop, when chasing home the seriously good Peddlers Cross at Haydock recently. This isn't a bad little field so it's no good being too bullish about any perceived edge. Bank = 2105 Available odds: 11/4 (H i l l & S J) My odds: 5/2 (28.57%) Stake = 54.63 (say £55 win) |
By:
Morning B.
Just took once glance at race and it is extremely "difficult" race to fathom!!!!! With the going being "IN BETWEEN" soft to heavy , this makes it even harder to fathom!!!!! If nearer HEAVY than soft, then SAMURAI WAY looks , at a glance , the obvious one to select as possible winner. However, LORD TODDY is "interesting" as well and might be one at higher odds to consider. If going nearer SOFT, then Bescot Springs looks to have a very good chance ...at a glance against this field. Predictive has had many chances to win, and is likely to have a say in finish as should be race fit..........which makes it likely to set the pace in race to make it as tough as possible for rest........hoping its fitness will enable it to win..........However, the number of chances it has had casts a doubt on it winning against horses from good trainers that are relatively "lightly raced". As there is this "doubt" on going, then probably the bets I would do are - Back - BESCOTT SPRINGS to win at 3.7 with £ 9.41 SAMURAI WAY to win at 4.3 with £ 8.10 LORD TOMNODDY to win at 14 with £ 2.49 Thus showing £ 14.83 profit on any of em winning. As on balance the HEAVY going may be more likely, my tactics would be to - LAY BS IR at 2s to gain £10 on lay leaving small profit on it. LAY SW at 1.54 to gain £10....... LAY LT at 1.54 to gain £10...... Just hoping your one wins with a late run to catch either SW or LT......................and at least 2 lays enable a cross over of profit .....canceling out £20 stake etc Just doing above for an "interest" in race......hoping your one wins B......I will be canceling LAYS set if I think one of 3 is likely to be a clear winner well out...... GL with race. |
By:
BS being brought down was the sort of thing that "ruined" my plan.......an "unlucky" selection B :(
but that's racing ....hope horses are OK?? Luckily I had a wee cover PLACE bet on LORD T......so that covered my loss in WIN market......thankfully! LT looked "good" for a wee while...but going was not HEAVYenough for it .....might have won otherwise!!!! DRATTTTTTTTTTTTTT Cheers the noooooooo |
By:
I was away for the hong kong race but cracking betting sir.
|
By:
Yeah, LT ran a fair race there DFC.
I wasn't particularly happy with the way Bescot was travellling before he was brought down. |
By:
1.50 Huntingdon
Thought Pickamus ran OK behind a well handicapped horse last time out, and we can reasonably expect one of Henry Daly's to improve over fences. The formlines are fuzzy but it doesn't look a strong novice chase. Bank = 2050 Available odds: 10/3 (gen) My odds: 3/1 (25%) Kelly = 50.79 (say £50 win) |
By:
:^0
|
By:
Champion Hurdle (ante-post)
The 2010 Champion Hurdle, based on what we saw last season & what we've seen so far this winter, is there for the taking for a new kid on the block. Zaynar is no doubt the hot one, but I can't help thinking he's a better World Hurdle prospect. Solwhit is respected but is also short enough at 6/1 after his reputation took a knock in a slowly-run race at Newcastle. At 12s Khyber Kim shouldn't be under-estimated, but can we trust Nigel Twiston-Davies to take him there fresh? Assuming Dunguib keeps to novice company, the one that sstands out at the current prices is Voler La Vedette at 20/1. She'll have to come through at least one big trial in Ireland to justify lining up (probably the Irish Champion) but she's already trounced Go Native and they must be at least quietly hopeful in the light of that horse's impressive progress since. Bank = 2216.67 Available odds: 20/1 (H i l l) My odds: 14/1 (6.67%) Stake = 44.41 (say £45 win) |
By:
1.25 Leopardstown
Difficult to see beyond Made In Taipan, Golden Silver & Tranquil Sea for this. The "angle" that justifies a bet for me has to be that Tranquil Sea, as a crack two and half miler, is a bit shorter than he should be over this trip. At 3/1 & 17/2 you could probably make sense of backing both the other two, but I've come down on the side of Golden Silver, whose comeback run took the eye, albeit in a much weaker race, and last year he beat the useful Forpadydeplasterer over course & distance. Bank = 2171.67 (plus 45 tied-up ante-post) Available odds: 3/1 (P o w e r) My odds: 11/4 (26.67%) Stake = 48.36 (say £50.67 win) |
By:
:^0
|
By:
3.20 Chepstow
Looks a pretty hot novice hurdle, but I'm not sure dual bumper winning Dingat should be as high as 16/1, although much of course will depend on how he takes to jumping. Bank = 2323.68 Available odds: 16/1 (gen) My odds: 12/1 (7.69%) Stake = 44.63 (say £22.50 ew) Away for a few days so unlikely to be posting much before the new year. Seasonal greetings to all. |
By:
**van Barneveld v Simon Whitlock
I'm a big fan of Simon Whitlock and earnestly hope he gives Barney a great game tonight. I'm conscious, however, that he has faltered before in the really big games and the odds about the been-there done-that Barney winning big look quite generous. Bank = 2278.68 (+ 45 tied-up ante-post) Barneveld to win 6-0 Available odds: 50/1 (T o t e) My odds: 40/1 (2.44%) Stake = 11.14 (say £10) Barneveld to win 6-1 Available odds: 20/1 (gen) My odds: 18/1 (5.26%) Stake = 11.92 (say £10) |
By:
I like your thinking on that one, i don't get the confidence behind Whitlock
|
By:
A dramatic game there, and I'm absolutely thrilled for the likeable Whitlock.
|
By:
BDO darts: Adams v Gurney
Thought Daryl Gurney looked OK when going down 4-2 against Adams this time last year, but at a best price of 12/5 on the high street he's not exactly great value to turn the tables tonight against a consistent opponent. At 3.8 and drifting, the betfair price is much more appealing. If he does win, however, I expect it to be quite close, so I'm more interested in the 13/2 about 4-3 and the 10/1 about 4-2. In the first round Gurney won all but one of his 13 legs on his fifth (6 legs) or sixth (6 legs) visit to the oche. A repeat of that ought to produce a fairly close encounter. Bank = 2258.68 (plus £40 tied-up ante-post) Gurney to win 4-3 Available odds: 13/2 (gen) My odds: 6/1 (14.29%) Stake = 24.93 (say £25) Gurney to win 4-2 Available odds: 10/1 (L a d b r o k e s) My odds: 9/1 (10%) Stake = 22.59 (say £20.68) |
By:
Super Bowl
A short-lived bet, no doubt, but I can't resist a few quid on rank outsiders New York Jets to lift the Super Bowl the hard way (on the road) at 45/1. They're one dimensional, they lack finesse and they have an iffy QB. So why? Because they have a strong defence & come into the play offs on a roll, conceding just 47pts in their last six games. The colder weather should help them too. Bank = 2213 (plus 45 tied-up) Available odds: 45/1 (betfair) My odds: 33/1 (2.94%) Stake = 17.33 (say £15 win) |
By:
Whoops!
Forget to account for commission in the calculation (which would have given a stake of £14.82). No damage done, since £15 would still have been the adjustment. |
By:
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: 1st touchdown
With the sometimes shaky Patriots unbeaten at home this season, they're more likely to score the first touchown tonight. A passing TD is also more likely than a rushing TD (Baltimore, I think, have allowed only 8 on the ground all season). Randy Moss is the obvious target, and 13/2 at S k y b e t isn't a terrible price about him. But with Wes Welker out injured, I'm having a couple of speculative stabs at the tight ends Ben Watson & Chris Baker. They haven't been prolific (just 7 TDs between them) but the odds of course reflect that. Bank = 2198 (not incl 45 + 15 tied-up elsewhere) Ben Watson available odds: 18/1 (L a d b r o k e s) My odds: 16/1 (5.88%) Stake = 14.31 (say £15) Chris Baker available odds: 66/1 (L a d bro k e s) My odds: 50/1 (1.96%) Stake = 10.43 (say £10) When these teams met earlier in the season the Ravens scored the first TD and the Patriots scored twice on the ground - so expect the unexpected! |
By:
After backing the New York Jets for the Super Bowl at 45/1, the opportunity now arises to lay off at 24/1. They face a very difficult task on the road against the Chargers this w/end.
I think, though, that I'll wait until kick off before deciding how to proceed. Their game is the last of the divisional championships, and a surprise in one or more of the other games could shake up the market a bit more, although I'd expect San Diego's price to contract a good deal more than New York's. Bank = 2173 (plus 15 + 45 tied-up) |
By:
Cheltenham Festival: Ryanair Chase
With Joncol left out of the Gold Cup entries, a bet at 10/1 is now justified for his only other possible engagement at the Festival. They may of course decide to keep him at home until next season, but assuming he runs a decent race in the Irish Hennessy we can reasonably expect them to come over for the Ryanair (he will be entered, according to the trainer). He travelled best of all in the Lexus over 3 miles at Leopardstown before fading late on. He may yet develop into a winning 3 miler at the highest level but for the time being the stiff 2 miles 5 furlongs of the Ryanair looks just his ticket. It's going to be a tough renewal this year, as good horses seek to avoid Kauto Star & Denman in the Gold Cup, notably Barbers Shop And there are some fair youngsters coming through the ranks (Poquelin, Tranquil Sea). Bank = 2173 (plus 15 + 45 tied-up) Available odds: 10/1 (S t a n J a m e s, L a d b r o k e s) My odds: 8/1 (11.11%) Stake = 48.26 (say £50 win) (NB when I rang L a d b r o k e s they wouldn't lay a bet, claiming the market had been suspended...) |
By:
4.25 Ffos Las
Some interesting newcomers here, but Our Aodh sets a fair standard for them all to reach for and is probably worth a bet at 9/2. Bank = 2123 (+110 tied-up) Available odds: 9/2 (S t a n J , B l u e S q) My odds: 4/1 (20%) Stake (incl 5% commission) = 47.18 (say £45 win) |
By:
With no favours forthcoming in the other games (a Ravens win in Indy's backyard would have been especially nice), I think we'll just let the small New York Jets bet ride for the time being.
|
By:
Good to see the Jets stick to their game plan there - great effort.
3.25 Thurles Was quite impressed with Jagoes Mills' first run over fences at Navan behind a couple of decent horses. At these prices the favourite is worth taking on given its form over fences so far (tipped up last time out). The niggling doubt is the trip because the fav has already shown in his career that he stays very well. Bank = 2178 Available odds: 7/2 ( V i c t o r C ) My odds: 3/1 (25%) Stake = 77.79 (say £78 win) |
By:
Won easily B...wd :D
|
By:
Cheers DFC - saw out the trip well, didn't he, which gives them loads of options now.
Jagoes Mills wins £273 Bank = £2451 (plus another £110 tied-up) |
By:
Very nice, keep it up. Just letting you know people are still reading really :)
|
By:
1.40 Newcastle
Wymott sets a good standard here, but with The Knoxs also pretty short there are some nice e/w prices about one or two potentially interesting newcomers, and the one that catches the eye is Bel Hugo, a full brother to Arturio, who was good enough to run in the Jewson. Of course we know nothing about him and it's a tough call to go 3m first time up, but the trainer at least thinks he's OK. Bank = 2451 Available odds: 33/1 ( S t a n J a m e s ) My odds: 20/1 (4.76%) Stake = 45.93 (say £20 e/w) |