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Just after watching the link bacchanal and you are spot on .......he eased it down a bit and the horse then could not increase pace when asked .:( ....very "unlucky" on that one :(
I missed your post as was preoccupied on thread etc etc .....still going well though :D WD Cheers the nooooooooooo |
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Grand Slam of Darts: Taylor v Lloyd
C o r a l are easily biggest price about Taylor giving Colin Lloyd a going over in tonight's 2nd round match. The handicappers expect Taylor to take this 10-4 which is probably about right, but we know that if The Power can get off to a quick start he can overwhelm opponents, and also that Lloyd's game is liable these days to fold under serious pressure. The odds are 40/1 about 10-0, 20/1 about 10-1 and 12/1 about 10-2. It's tricky to apply Kelly to the three separate bets here, but the key is not to play too conservatively, eg by risking no more than 1% of the bank and slicing it thinly three ways. I'm more inclined to go with around 2.5% of the bank which I'll round up to £42.80. Bank = 1672.80 Taylor to win 10-0 : £8.80 at 40/1 Taylor to win 10-1 : £17 at 20/1 Taylor to win 10-2 : £17 at 12/1 |
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12.45 Kelso
The short priced favourite here hasn't been tested yet on heavy ground, whereas the James Ewart challenger, Bishops Heir, has won a bumper on it. This yard from the borders was a dark, upcoming unit last season, and while they've undoubtedly had a slow start this term, one of theirs was backed at Newcastle last week and went quite close. Bank = 1630 Available odds: 5/1 (H i l l) My odds: 4/1(20%) Kelly = 65.20 (say £65 win) |
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:^0
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cheers Lori.
2.05 Ascot The two at the head of the market are the likely ones to fight this one out, but at 17.5 now on here The Rainbow Hunter may be worth a small play. He might have been flattered by a slow pace, but wasn't far behind the very decent Pepe Simo and henry King at Wincanton last time out. Bank = 1955 Available odds: 17.5 (betfair) My odds: 14/1 (6.67%) Kelly (incl. 5% commission) = 14 (say £15 win) |
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12.35 Huntingdon
Taking a bit of a chance here, but the Magic Sign have tempted me in with their 11/8 about Bergo in this novice chase. On hurdling form the unpenalised and McCoy assisted Franchoek wins this, doesn't he, but I'm generally happy to oppose a Flat bred horse going over the big fences for the first time. It's a small field and the opposition doesn't look much to write home about. Bank = 1940 Available odds: 11/8 (L a d b r o k e s) My odds: 6/5 (45.45%) Kelly = 112.08 (say £110 win) |
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Broken the 2k mark well done.
As I'm sure you know, you'll double your bank before halving it 67% of the time, so here's to 4k coming before 1k. This thread has been the only reason I've had to watch horse racing in a long time. |
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Thanks again, Lori.
Bank now = £2091.25 which is something of a milestone. We've doubled the starting bank and knocked the profit into four figures. It's taken a fair few months, but a key point from my point of view is that it's taken just 77 bets to get to this point. Till now my "target" has been to achieve 100% growth every 12 months (which for me equates to many more bets than 77), so this exercise is giving me plenty to think about. I said earlier in the thread that I would, at an appropriate point, do a review to consider how well Kelly has performed against other staking systems. A sample of just 77 bets suggests that now is not the time to be drawing any firm conclusions, but this thread has been on the go for a good while now, so I'll try to produce some kind of "interim report" within the next week or so. Meanwhile, we can crack on and see where the controversial figure of JLK Jr takes us. |
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Some headline numbers so far.
bets: 77 winners (win only): 11 winners (e/w): 4 losers: 62 strike rate (win only): 14% profit: £1091.25 total staked: £2,536.80 return on investment (ROI): 43% average stake = £32.95 which as a percentage of starting bank = 3.3% median stake = 2.3% of bank bets where stake = 0-2% of bank: 29 (38%) bets where stake = 2-4% of bank: 40 (52%) bets where stake = 4% of bank : 8 (10%) |
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Excellent figures bacchanal.......long may yer lum reek :D
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What is a conservative staking plan? How long is a piece of string?
But assuming 1pt = 1% of the starting bank (ie £10): level stakes (ie 1pt win or, where relevant, 0.5pt e/w) would have produced a profit of £254.75. Total money staked would have been £770, giving an ROI of 33% |
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In addition to level stakes, another plan worth considering is "fixed profit staking".
I've never operated a fixed profit staking plan, but I have sometimes wondered how things would turn out if I always staked to win at least 10% of my starting bank. (I usually do this sort of thing when I've backed a winner and know instinctively that I should have had more on.) Anyway, how would this series have worked out if, on each selection, I'd staked to win 10% of the starting bank (ie £100)? If my maths is right, a 10% fixed profit staking plan would have produced a profit of £349.77. Total money staked would have been £1094.21, giving an ROI of 32% |
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So much for the positives. On to the downside:
77 bets is a ludicrously small sample, but usefully (for the sake of analysis) this short series included one of those unsettling losing streaks, which all punters have to endure from time to time. I lost 24 on the bounce (bets 3-26), which represents a massive 31% chunk of the total number of bets. Received wisdom suggests that Kelly staking cannot withstand such a battering. In reality: Kelly From bet 3 to bet 28 the bank fell from £1355 to £697. That's a total loss of £658, representing a 49% drop in value. At its lowest point, though, the starting bank fell by no more than 30% Compare alternative staking systems: Level Stakes From bet 3 to bet 28 the bank would have fallenl from £1020 to £784.50. That's a total loss of £235.50, or a 23% drop in value. At its lowest point the starting bank would have fallen by 22% Fixed Pofit Staking From bet 3 to bet 28 the bank would have fallen from £1075.71 to £842.22. That's a total loss of £233.49, or a 22% drop in value. At its lowest point the starting bank would have fallen by 16% |
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The following table (which I hope copmes out OK) excludes:
(1) sports markets, where prices were fixed, and (2) bets in foreign PMU markets, where it was not possible to take an early price. selection................odds taken....estimated odds.......SP Rasaman....................8.00........... 6.50.............5.50 Noble Storm.................4.33...........3.00.............1.83 Raine's Cross...............8.00...........6.66..............3.75 Kheylide.....................7.00...........6.00..............4.00 Ishe Mac...................17.00.......... 11.00...........13.00 Eastern Anthem.......... 15.00.......... 11.00...........13.00 Dispol Keasha............. 11.00.......... 9.00.............7.00 Triple Dream................9.80............8.00.............8.50 Brunelleschi.................9.20............7.50............10.00 Supermassive Muse.......24.00.......... 17.00...........26.00 Bernie The Bolt.............6.50........... 4.50.............5.00 Macdillon....................13.00..........10.00............9.00 Fault.........................29.00..........21.00...........21.00 Raine's Cross...............21.00..........17.00...........17.00 Loch Linnhe.................10.00...........8.00.............7.00 Highland Glen...............15.00..........11.00............8.00 Wicked Wilma...............11.50...........8.00.............7.00 Who's Winning............. 11.00...........8.00.............6.50 Vamos....................... 13.00...........9.00...........11.00 Lesson In Humility.......... 4.50............3.50............3.50 Voila Ici.......................8.00............ 6.50............6.00 Piscean...................... 26.00..........17.00...........21.00 Mahannak...................16.00...........13.00..........15.00 Dressed To Dance..........12.00..........10.00...........9.00 Father Time..................7.00.............6.00...........4.50 Ishe Mac.....................22.00...........15.00.........19.00 Finjaan........................9.40............7.00...........8.00 Harrison George.............8.00............ 6.50...........5.00 Atlantic Story...............17.00............14.00.........10.00 Pavershooz..................9.00.............8.00............8.00 African Cheetah............11.00............9.00............7.00 Triple Aspect.................3.50.............3.00...........2.25 Lesson In Humility..........17.00............11.00............NR Audacity Of Hope............9.00.............7.00..........10.00 Lutine Charlie............... 15.00............11.00.........12.00 Rio Cobolo...................17.00............13.00..........19.00 Sea Of Leaves...............7.50..............6.50...........6.00 Main Aim......................7.00..............6.00...........6.00 Mawatheeq..................8.40..............7.00...........8.00 We'll Deal Again.............10.50.............9.00...........8.00 Cardinal James..............67.00............41.00.........51.00 Dualagi........................9.20.............8.00...........7.50 Arthur's Edge................10.00............7.00...........5.50 Arganil.........................6.50.............6.00...........6.00 Red Badge...................13.00............11.00..........7.50 Battlecry......................5.50..............5.00..........5.00 Plein Pouvoir.................13.00............11.00.........11.00 Agony And Ecstasy..........6.00.............5.50...........5.50 Cavingdon................... 11.00.............9.00..........8.00 Bishops Heir...................6.00..............5.00..........4.50 The Rainbow Hunter........17.50............15.00.........15.00 Bergo..........................2.38..............2.20..........2.10 I'm surprised and encouraged that I failed to beat SP on (I think) only four occassions. |
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Finally, JPG asked:
When you look back at your data there's actually two things I'd be interested to hear about: 1) The overall financial plus/minus plus swings etc But just as crucially, 2) How the (generally) higher stake levels compared to "normal" staking leads to the mental side of your betting. I appreciate that translating that from one person to another and then to another is far from ideal as everybody reacts differently but I'd be interested to hear it all the same. For certain types of my betting I use half kelly, sometimes quarter but this is more to do with giving myself more margin for error on my "own" prices than to do with short term tolerance but Id be lying if I was to say this was completely out of the equation! I think question 1) has been covered in some of my recent posts. As for question 2) I haven't found the mental side as bad as I thought I would, but I think this is due mainly to my setting aside a separate bank for this exercise. If I'd been playing with my entire bankroll, the psychological aspects of the game would have been much more difficult to manage, particularly during the losing streak. (There is absolutely no reason, in theory, why this is so. But in practice, it's a different game of balls.) Instead, I've been dealing so far in modest sums, the top five stakes being £130, £110, £90, £85 and £65. But as already noted, Kelly has only called for a stake equal to or greater than 4% of the betting bank 8 times. That only 10% of total bets, so maybe the downsides of using Kelly have been over-exaggerated? |
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I'm aware that Kelly, applied strictly, is seen by some as too risky, and so prefer instead to divide the Kelly Stake by 2 or more.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bacchanal, what would Full Kelly position be including during your initial losing sequence? |
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Sandown,
I have been applying Full Kelly throughout. |
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12.35 Thurles
Not a race to get heavily involved in, but young Victor is out on his own offering 3s about Paul Nolan's Revelling. Her bumper form was boosted last Sunday when For Bill went in at Navan. Bank = 2091.25 Available odds: 3/1 ( V C ) My odds: 11/4 (26.67%) Kelly stake = 46.57 (say £45 win) |
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Long Distance Hurdle
Big Buck's, deservedly big odds-on against this lot, could yet be vulnerable first time out, and Duc De Regniere might be the one to make him work. Positives: Henderson in great form and always does well at this meeting; he's had the benefit of a run, albeit over fences; he won this last year although may not get the slow pace that played into his hands that time; the big horse will no doubt come on plenty for the run. Bank = 2046.25 Available odds: 7/1 (gen) My odds: 6/1 (14.29%) Kelly = 41.86 (say £40.25 win) |
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GL B.......fav as you say may well win and should win....the one at higher odds that might take it on IMO is Souffleur............the going and weight should pssibly give it a chance of 2nd.
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Bit of a stroll for the winner ......Cheers the nooooooooooooo
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yes, and the stronger pace did for the Duc's stamina.
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bacchanal - I get the impression that you are getting "used" to the KELLY STAKING and now see it as a huge plus to you to be a valuable tool to assist in controlling STAKING.
I know I only used the KELLY STAKING CALCULATOR for a short period of time, but I did find it extremely useful for making me think more about the probability of a selection winning............something that I probably just ignored when betting previously . This just has to be a huge plus for using the KSC......................as far more control over staking is being exercised as more "thought" re the value of bet is being done. As you know I tested on ATTEMPT 1 thread and lost 1,000 point paper bank whilst getting myself up to speed on how races were being run currently etc......then on ATTEMPT 2 made about 1,090 points PAPER profit ( would have been a further 1,000 points profit if was using BF SP and not been writing off profit IR, as well as using FULL KELLY staking). I then used real money small bank over only a few days and made a profit....................again would have been about £900 more had I used FULL KELLY staking! The conclusion I came to was that the way I bet I can lose a bank eventually if my standard of selection is poor for a long run of bets.......it would take ages before a full bank lost ! However, the potential high profit runs would more than compensate for those bad run of results, and a bank would double or treble etc over a few bets....HAD I APPLIED FULL KELLY STAKING. So I will be going for a £1,000 starting bank ( in December once certain work completed) and probably operating to one third KELLY stakes for at least 10 bets, then increasing to two third KELLY stakes for next run of 10 bets.........if no winner obtained ( my longest losing run was 16 doing almost every race on the ATTEMPTS) after 20 bets......the bank is likely to be about half the opening bank. I will then top up the bank to £1,000 and return to staking at one third level stakes and repeat staking levels IF no winner obtained after 10 bets etc..... As I expect to have some excellent returns when I hit those run of bets where I get 3 or more winners at reasonable odds, then I believe this method of staking using KSC will enable me to make good profits. ( I think I will withdraw profits, or to recoup previous loss, once bank goes over £1,500.....then start again with £1,000 etc). Will have enough funds to use above approach 7 times if hit that run of over 100 losers in a row.....Once I get to having doubled the size of over all bank , then I will increase the bank to £2,000 and top up at £1,000 mark etc ). My thanks again to both you and Sandown , and Lori, re doing your threads, and posting on subject. It has assisted me considerably on the hard subjects of STAKING ,VALUE and EVALUATING PROBABILITY ....................etc GL with bets |
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Not checked this for a while, but excellent work Bacch.....one of the few threads thats been going a while thats actually interesting....
Just wish I knew about horses......though my late grandfather used to bet on ones which had just had a p o o before the off on the grounds that they had less weight to carry !!! |
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Thanks for the kind remarks lads and good luck.
Drinmore Chase, Fairyhouse This is a fantastic renewal which, notwithstanding the heavy ground, should shine a big light on the novice chase division in Ireland for the year ahead. Against this field Mr Warbucks could finish nearer last than first, but I think the 12/1 about him is worth a small nibble. Whatuthink has probably improved since these two met, but the fact remains that Mr Warbucks beat him, jumping and staying well. Many of the others were classier hurdlers but they still have some questions to answer over the big black ones. Bank = 2006 Available odds: 12/1 (L a d b r o k e s , B e t 3 6 5) My odds: 10/1 (9.09%) Kelly stake = £30.37 (say £15 e/w) |
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2.45 Wincanton
An interesting little novice chase, but with neither Vodka Brook nor Backbenscher especially impressive on their fencing debuts, this looks a fair opportunity for Aux Le Bahnn, the apple of Noel Chance's eye. Our Bob is an interesting runner, returning to the track after a long absence, so the margins here look pretty slim, in spite of the small field. Bank = 1976 Available odds: 5/2 (generally, including best odds guaranteed) My odds: 9/4 (30.77%) Kelly = 60.82 (say £60 win) |
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Hong Kong Sprint (13 December)
The only previous ante-post selection on this thread failed to make it to the track, but I can never resist this fantastic card. The sprint is an interesting this year because there are doubts about the principals: Sacred Kingdom hasn't really built on his renaissance win in Singapore; Apache Cat couldn't win this last year; All Silent, the current Aussie buzz horse, seems much better on straight tracks; and Scenic Blast has regressed badly since his devasting win in the King's Stand. California Flag must also overcome two obstacles: (1) running overseas for the first time; and (2) going right-handed. But at a stand-out 10/1 with one firm I still like his chances because I think he has a fair shot of getting his own way up front. The Japanese horse, Laurel Guerrerio, may be the only one in the field that will look to go with him, but I don't think he'll have the gears. Also, the HK-trained One World, while very likely outclassed, should not be 66/1. He was a bit unlucky in the trial for this last time out and is pretty consistent. If some of the internationals misfire he could make the frame. Bank = 1916 California Flag odds: 10/1 (C o r a l) My odds: 8/1 (11.11%) Kelly stake = £42.55 (say £40 win) One World odds: 66/1 (generally) My odds: 40/1 (2.44%) Kelly stake = £18.43 (say £10 e/w) |
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excellent thread Baccanal :)
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Henry VIII
With Crack Away Jack solid and Tchico Polos given a good word from the champion trainer, the likeable Somersby is trading at a backable price for this. The ground is a bit of unknown, but not only for Henrietta's horse. Bank: 1856 (+60 pending ante-post) Available odds: 5.1 (betfair) My odds: 7/2 (22.22%) Kelly (incl 5% commission): 41.78 (say £40 win) |
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:^0
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2.20 Kelso (Borders National)
On the face of it he's an inexperienced novice, but he has plenty of point to point form. Time will tell if a mark of 128 flatters him, but Jaunty Journey has always shaped like a decent staying chaser when there's a good bit of give underfoot. Twice now in his short career, at Chepstow, he's battled home over 3m against better-travelling opponents, and the hope is that he can improve a bit more for this extra mile. The lad on top takes off a valuable 5lb. Bank = £2011.80 (not incl. £60 ante-post, which is tied-up) Available odds: 9/1 (P o w e r, S k y) My odds: 15/2 (11.76%) Kelly stake = 39.34 (say £40 win) |
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GL bacchanal. Just had a quick look at race and as your selection is a 6 yo it is asking a lot of a young horse to win at the distance of race on the soft going.
I know this race is not as far as the GN.....but still worth considering that no horse under age of 8 has won the GN over the last 19 years at least! Morgan Be , if carrying less weight , is "interesting" one and this might well be in first 3 home........and the 10 yod horses may well be the ones where winner comes from 9 ( as the two 8 yods in race may find it tough on going today at distance of race). ROYAL ROSA and LUCKY NELLERIE are likely to be ploughing on at finish , whilst distance might be too short for L'AVENTURE ]:) :D ! Really is a right mixture of age groups in this race and perhaps a 6 yo can win against opposition that does not look too competitive...................so fingers crossed your one wins ......danger MB and probably LN at weights......... |
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BTW - never looked at market odds prior to posting here......and was a bit surprised MB is currently favourite. Odds are too low IMO considering the weight carried on such going as today.......F Murphy having 2 horses in race puts me off the race shape............ROYAL ROSA may well run a good race today......and odds EW are reasonable ....probably would opt for that one to win and to be 2nd to MB ( if handles weight then should have a chance to win today........IF !!!!)
Gl again |
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RACING RESULTS
Top-up trebles, double-chance races, winning distances and jockey trebles! Latest results from around the country Kelso 2.20 1st 6 L'aventure (FR) 5-1 F 2nd 2 Bold Ransom (IRE) 11-2 3rd 8 Royal Mackintosh 6-1 ========================================= 10 yo wins .....at least was on right track when posted earlier .....trouble is I picked out wrong one of 3 that thought distance would be too short for it! MB - could not handle the weight at distance..... 6 yods struggled at distance on going.............. I usually backed L'AVENTURE in GN as it always "stays on"...................and against class of horses today it was too much of an out and out stayer for them..........If anything the tactics employed by F Murphy with LN leading and setting pace for L'AV suited L'AV .....as usually it is out the back and comes on late in race .....today was kept up with pace and trainer got tactics spot on! Gl with next bet B..... |
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Hong Kong Mile (13 December)
This is an interesting betting race because favourite Good Ba Ba has been a shadow of his former self since moving stables. Of course, his new handler may be peaking him for the big one, but on what we've seen on the track so far he has to be opposed at 11/8. At 4/1 Happy Zero is next in the market, and steps up to a mile after trouncing Sacred Kingdom in the Sprint Trial. Normally I'd be keen to take him on too (the great sprinter Silent Witness couldn't cope when asked to go 8f) but the more you look at the field, the more you like his chances. The only one that looks mildly overpriced is the consistent Fellowship, who may be worth a saver at 16/1 with the Magic Sign. The international contingent, meanwhile, looks more than a notch below Group 1, although you could argue that Confront is improving. If Happy Zero truly gets the 8f (and that's a big "if") it'll take a peak form Good Ba Ba to beat him. Bank = 1971.80 (not including 60 tied-up ante-post) Available odds: 4/1 (generally) My odds: 7/2 (22.22%) Kelly stake = 54.72 (say £55 win) |
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Hi Bacch......just going outside of this thread for a mo.....how much racing are you actually watching on a per hour/per week basis??
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Alright josh? I watch racing every day but can't bear to sit in front of it all.
Over the sticks I'll watch all the top class stuff, and on top of that try to keep up with as much novice hurldes and chases as I can, both in GB and IRE. There are a couple of fair nov hurdles at Fontwell & Sedgefield today but not a lot else. I'll only switch on for the races, so miss all the associated chat. On a quiet day, like today, I'd say I'm actually sat watching racing for no more than half an hour, but you're talking between 1-2 hours on busier & better racing days towards the end of the week. On the Flat, again I watch all the good quality Pattern racing. With the exception of a few big hcaps, most sprints & some 2YO and 3YO mdns, I pretty much ditch everything else. Hopefully the channels will provide us with more paddock shots so that I can develop your late grandfather's selection policy... |
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Lol......I was kinda of wondering if I should do that just for fun!!! Shame I dont work for Alphameric anymore ( who own half of Turftv ) , I would have watched out for that during the working day!!!
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I only bet on Group Racing on the Flat , i don't bother with the Jumps at all , never anything much happening before Friday , and even then the big weekend races are often handicaps (which i never bet on) . The majority of top class NH Horses run no more than 4 times a season as the programme is not really designed with them in mind.
Will you switch more to other sports now in the winter? |
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I love the NFL & the arrers but only for occasional, rather than serious, punting.
I've been meaning for a little while to delve deeper into the Southwell Fibresand because I can see the logic of trying to specialise at that one, unique track but I haven't got very far at all. I could always smash into your footie selections, tobermory... |