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GL bacchanal with 3.05 race....again maybe going if SOFTER would increase chances of win....but appears to be well backed now ...so horse in form has a fair chance .
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:d WD b
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Excellent odds you obtained on that winner B.....possibly you moved market!!!!
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excuse me for butting in but i saw this line
What you are doing is investing 1/21 of your bank on a chance which you estimate as a 6/1 chance. At those odds, the probability of hitting 20 or more losers is 40%. can anyone explain to me how I work out the probability of losing runs from average prices taken? thanks |
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http://www.punterprofits.com/horse-racing/betting_staking_plan_analysis.php
CHECK OUT Moving on to ELS - Expected Losing Sequence. Should cover this |
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cheers
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7.00 Dundalk
The early money seems to be for Rain Delayed and Santo Padre. Arganil has therefore been shifted out half a point to 11/2 and I think that's now worth a nibble for a horse that's done so well over 5f on the all-weather. If these early shows are replicated later, this horse will likely go 6s or bigger. Bank = 1490 Available odds: 11/2 (V C , P o w e r) My odds: 5/1 (16.67%) Kelly = 22.63 (say £25 win) |
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Good to see that excellent movement forward with bank balance B :D
DUNDALK is a bit of a mystery course for me.....does it run SLOW on AW after rain????? With RYAN having 3 in race ..... Madame Trop Vite( I vaguely remember selecting that one recently .....but never saw it race) is the other one of 3 that might be involved in finish.....IF going is SLOW. GL with bet |
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:D :D :D ....you are on roll !!!!!! WD
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:D
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Horris Hill Stakes
Quite like a few of these: Pastoral Player, though, is a bit short on what he's actually achieved and may (like his sire) want quick ground. Audacity Of Hope has impressed me since they put on a tongue tie, but at the prices Red Badge is the most attractive at 12/1. He's improved for the step up to 7f and the breeding gives us encouragement that he'll be OK on easy ground. Bank = 1627.50 Available odds: 12/1 (b e t 3 6 5) My odds: 10/1 (9.09%) Kelly = 24.64 (say £27.50 win) |
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Prix Royal Oak
Early shows on the PMU in France have become extremely unreliable. However, it's the delicious Catriona's birthday today, so I won't be around to monitor the odds nearer the off. I'm assuming, though, that the Aga's horse and Frankie's mount will, as usual, be overbet, leaving a scap of value elsewhere in the market. I'm a fan of Schiaparelli, but he's been quite busy lately and this trip might just stretch him. With the ground soft, the two to concentrate on are Clowance and Ask. I might have a little saver on the former, who shaped so encouragingly in the Irish Leger, but Ask is the one to beat if (1) he can overcome a long break, and (2) see out this extra trip. Available over here at 2/1, I'd make him more a 5/2 or perhaps more realistically a 3/1 shot given the quality of opposition and the two "ifs" cited above. I'm pessimistic these days of getting great value on the PMU, and in spite of his latest show of around 13/2 on the PMU, I'm assuming he'll be sent off no bigger than 7/2. Bank = 1600 Guessed PMU odds: 7/2 My odds: 3/1 (25%) Kelly = 57.14 (say £55 win) |
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1:35 - Prix Royal-Oak (Group 1)
* » Full result 1m7½f, £138,689.00 1 Ask 12/5F 2 Schiaparelli 3/1 3 Manighar 31/10 9 ran Distances: 1½l, 3l, 1½l TIME 3m 32.17s (slow by 13.67s) Jockey: Ryan Moore Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute PARI-MUTUEL: WIN 3.40 PL 1.30, 1.40, 1.40 DF 6.20 WD B ................still fyling !!!! :D |
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flying even !!!!
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yes, a disappointing PMU return but still considerably better than the 7/4 "industry price".
Bank = 1732 |
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1.00 Saint-Cloud, Criterium International
There may be an angle here if the Aga Kahn's Marcel Boussac winner Rosanara is overbet. She may be the new Zarkava but her run at the Arc meeting was not so impressive as that wonderful filly's, and the ground today is much softer. Of course she may bolt up, but it's worth a small bet on the Coolmore representatives, Jan Vermeer & Midas Touch, coupled in the PMU market. The latter is the first string and he's won on the soft. They are 6/1 at the moment but that won't last as Rosanara drifts before the off. Bank = 1732 Guessed PMU odds (coupled): 9/2 My odds: 4/1 (20%) Kelly = 38.49 (say £40 win) |
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Sunday November 1 2009
Race Result Saint-Cloud 13:00 - Result Criterium International (group 1) 250000 added, 2yo only, 7f 209y, 142850 penalty, 7 ran Going: Soft Pos. Dr. Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP 1 1 Jan Vermeer (IRE) 8-13 C O'Donoghue A P O'Brien 2 10/1 2 4 Emerald Commander (IRE) 8-13 L Dettori Saeed Suroor 2 5/1 3 7 Rosanara (FR) 8-10 C P Lemaire A de Royer-Dupre 2 Evs f :D :D :D wd |
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10/1 :^0
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The coupled odds returned at 4/1 on the PMU.
Bank = 1892 1.35 Saint-Cloud, Prix Perth I thought Border Patrol was going to be a big price in France today because he was put firmly in his place in the Foret which was run at sprinting pace. But he's been put in as fav in the GB markets. Around 13/2 at the moment in France he's probably worth a small bet, but only a marginal one in my book. Bank = 1892 Guessed PMU odds: 6/1 My odds: 11/2 (15.58%) Kelly = 28.57 (say £30 win) |
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Ah sorry bacc :( Still nice though, keep it up.
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Cheers Lori, a decent effort from Border Patrol there, but he just ran into one too good.
Bank = £1862. |
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Hi Bacc.....obviously dont know you but I ve just had a scan through this. you could probably teach the mugs on footy a thing or 2. Interesting to note that on your last bet , the percentage stake v your bank has come down to a very low percentage.......
I m not a horse fan at all ( to what extent a nag knows its favourite is very debatable!! ), but I do read the Nevison column in RFO. He made a point the other week about the fact that prices are now set by the combined minds of thousands of punters, and finding the ricks is nigh on impossible.......do u intend to spread the net at a future date, or are you just sticking to finding one at a time? |
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Cheers joshua tree,
Yes, a bet of 1.6% of the bank on Border Patrol there was on the low side, but I thought the value was pretty marginal. During the course of this exercise I've staked less than 2% of bank quite a bit: on a quick count I make it 23/66 which = about 35% of all bets. On that basis I suppose you could argue that the ricks these days are few and far between. Also, the fact that I play in foreign markets indicates that I think that the value calls there are more clear cut. Dave N is an action player and he will have loads more bets per week than me, and having quite enjoyed his first book I respect his judgement. But I'm not sure I really buy into this theory that the market is so much more sophisticated these days. Those thousands of minds no doubt include a good proportion of lazy or habitual shap-end punters and followers. Someone could do some useful research to test the "sophistication" of the exchange-driven markets. Maybe the markets are smarter for the low-grade stuff, which I hardly look at, but I just don't know. Good quality racing, it seems to me, is still unpredictable & value friendly. As for the future, I'll be sticking largely to horse racing but I'm not averse to punting more than one in a race. |
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As per your first post , staking defo my weak point as well.......I ve always been a bit scared of Kelly though, but to be fair , its more disciplined than most.
Anyway, I ll keep an eye on how u r doing .....nice work |
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3.05 Kempton
Duc De Regniere, while clearly very talented, didn't do much to impress when first tried over fences, so there may be some mileage in taking him on today. At the prices, Alan King's Sir Harry Ormesher (7/1) is tempting: he's already beaten Pasco in a novice chase but went to pieces in the Rising Stars and hasn't been seen since. So at 9/2 Battlecry just gets the call. His form also ended badly last season but a look at his overall profile suggests he goes OK fresh, even when a well held second at the Open meeting last November. Bank = 1862 Available odds: 9/2 (generally available, including best odds guaranteed) My odds: 4/1 (20%) Kelly = 41.38 (say £40 win) |
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bacchanal - difficult open race ...GL.....presumably a H/C race, though not described as such on either RP site or SL site??? l
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1.35 Maisons-Laffitte
I'm a fan of Our Jonathan but the ground over there is very soft today, so a small bet on Dolled Up, who has some solid if unspectacular form in the book. Bank = 1822 Guessed PMU odds: 9/2 My odds: 4/1 (20%) Kelly = 40.49 (£40 win) |
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looks like Our Jonathan has bolted up...
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2.05 Maisons-Laffitte
Condititions are probably against him, but Royal Rock looks too big at around 10/1 for this 6f sprint. Bank = 1782 Guessed PMU odds: 10/1 My odds: 9/1 (10%) Kelly = 17.82 (say £20 win) |
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4.00 Exeter
Probably a month too soon to be backing Venetia Williams inmates (her record is December is worth a look), but can't resist another small bet on Plein Pouvoir at double figure odds on here. Ran well behind Apatura Dick last term, I recall, and cld be handicapped to win at some point this season. Bank = 1762 Available odds: 13 (betfair) My odds: 10/1 (9.09%) Kelly (incl. 5% commission) = 19.65 (say £20 win) |
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GL B.....it is my 2nd choice if choosing......I was torn between 2 again!!! Fingers crossed your one wins !
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Ran a good race bacchanal....was convinced a 6 yo horse might have winning chance ...but going still unclear for me at EXETER ..........
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2.00 £3,258
2.02 £292 2.04 £288 2.06 £14 £221 2.08 £7 2.10 £4,210 2.12 £461 2.14 £38 2.16 £368 2.20 £345 2.22 £828 2.24 £420 2.26 £746 2.28 £163 2.32 £1,532 2.34 £235 2.36 £63 2.38 £39 2.40 £26 2.50 £180 2.52 £258 2.56 £217 2.58 £11 2.60 £42 2.62 £123 2.70 £305 2.72 £1,949 2.74 £66 2.76 £165 2.78 £432 2.80 £3,264 2.82 £11 2.84 £151 2.88 £1,675 2.90 £950 2.92 £128 2.94 £4 2.96 £12 2.98 £12 3.00 £6,646 3.05 £856 3.10 £605 3.15 £218 3.20 £1,855 3.25 £287 3.30 £831 3.35 £251 3.40 £540 3.50 £940 3.55 £765 3.60 £637 3.65 £114 3.70 £1,346 3.75 £23 3.80 £286 3.85 £31 3.90 £22 3.95 £34 4.00 £350 4.10 £548 4.20 £202 4.30 £9 4.40 £4 4.50 £24 4.60 £1,185 4.70 £570 4.80 £1,249 4.90 £1,167 5.00 £16,997 5.10 £504 5.20 £360 5.30 £445 5.40 £1,114 5.50 £353 5.60 £536 5.70 £390 5.80 £416 5.90 £451 6.00 £1,062 6.20 £292 6.40 £87 6.60 £173 6.80 £46 7.00 £66 7.20 £175 7.60 £8 7.80 £44 8.00 £203 8.20 £9 8.40 £118 8.60 £54 8.80 £34 9.00 £499 9.20 £122 9.40 £299 9.60 £613 9.80 £30 10.00 £1 £425 10.50 £592 11.00 £263 11.50 £2,710 12.00 £4,994 12.50 £6,018 13.00 £2,750 £450 £6,190 Great odds IR too ..... |
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Silly in-running odds there, DCM...
The lovely Venetia is no doubt getting him fit for something next month... PS well done on your excellent results today. |
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DFC, I mean :-(
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Just a good guessing day SO FAR ..........I had to get one ...and today was day :D
Really obliged on letting me have link for the K calculator........makes STAKING so much easier ....and helps in that all I gotta do is pick the winner :D Think I will offset loss initially against bank tomorrow, provided still have enough paper bank left ]:)......then take it from there. My gut feeling is that occasionally I will lose bank now and then doing the KELLY staking..........but i will also have some very very good days too........hopefully those days will cover losses. Probably a 3/4 bank method.....building up til bank doubles, then withdrawing...repeating exercise, hopefully, until have created say 8 banks, then operate with 4 banks with double starting bank level etc......... Using the KELLY STAKING makes you think harder re the amount of value betting on.....so has to be good thing! back to racing . Cheers the noooooooooooooooo |
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1.30 Southwell
A rare detour to Southwell for me, but I'm hoping the gap in the market between Tertiary and Agony And Ecstasy is a bit too wide. With Godolphin in such blinding form, the theory here is that Tertiary is a bit too short on the back of a Brighton maiden. Not knocking the horse: he showed early pace and willing qualities that day, and may well follow up here. But the admirable Ralph Beckett's not in bad nick himself, and he's reasonably confident Agony And Ecstasy will go on the fibresand. Bank = 1742 Available odds: 5/1 (S t a n J a m e s) My odds: 9/2 (18.18%) Kelly = 31.63 (say £32 win) |
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1.50 Warwick
A potentially trappy time of year with the sticks form yet to take shape. Looking at the powerful barns represented in this staying novice hurdle, Suzy Smith's Cavingdon may be up against it, but he's a double figure price & at least he'll be fit from his recent gutsy bumper win against a possibly well-regarded youngster from the Nicholls yard. Bank = 1710 Available odds: 10/1 (gen) My odds: 8/1 (11.11%) Kelly stake = 37.98 (say £20 ew) |
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1.35 Auteuil
The big 4YO hurdle at Auteuil today should, on previous form, go to the JP McManus-owned Rock Noir. A line through the ill-fated Rendons Cross puts this horse a fair way ahead of Edward O'Grady's Jumbo Rio, but the Irish raider is likely to be overpriced on the PMU. With PMU prices so difficult to predict these days, I'm going to play a conservative 1% of the bank in the win market and 2% in the place market. It should be a good return if he wins, although I expect the place price to be pretty tight. Bank = 1670 Stake = 3% (say £50: £17 win, £33 place) |
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That was a lot of work to win £2.80.
Coming to the last, with MacNamara showboating, it looked like the cherry was about to be placed on O'Grady's weekend cake. But no! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTO3wKUDfg0 |