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The Desert Classic darts starts tonight. Always like to pick out one or two from the bottom half of the draw (ie the half that doesn't include Phil Taylor). Wade or Barney usually prevail but both are beatable, and the two that stand out at the prices are Kevin Painter and Andy Hamilton, both at 66/1. Assuming thier chances are better reflected by odds of 40/1, Kelly would suggest a stake of just under 1% of the bank. That sounds about right to me, but for convenience I'll round-up the total stake per player to £10 (which is about 1.25% of the fast diminishing bank).
Bank = £795 Kevin Painter £5 ew at 66/1 (P o w e r, S t a n J a m e s) Andy Hamilton £5 ew at 66/1 (B e t f r e d) Had a close eye on Simon Whitlock for this, but he finds himself in Taylor's half, and the Power saw him off 6-0 in the warm-up tournament yesterday. Good luck anyway to the Wizard as he seeks to establish himself in the PDC. |
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8.40 Salisbury
Vamos has shaped like a horse that could win a small grade sprint. After running quite consistently, I wasn't sure they were putting it all in at Warwick a couple of starts back, and then he never got into it from an iffy draw at Kempton last week. With a berth near the far rail, there should be no excuses if they really fancy going for it tonight. Bank = £775 (£795 - £20 pending on the arrers) Available odds: 12/1 (b e t 3 6 5) My odds: 8/1 Kelly stake = £28.69 (or £30) |
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Tour de France Stage 4
Looks like tomorrow' team time trial is between Astana, Columbia, Garmin and Saxo Bank. The shape of the markets suggest to me that Astana (at 5/6) are a bit short and Saxo Bank (at 8/1) a bit long. Assuming Saxo Bank's true odds are better reflected at 6/1, the shape of the market suggests each-way's the way to go. Bank = £745 Available odds: 8/1 (B e t 3 6 5 - who offer one quarter the odds for 1st, 2nd or 3rd) My odds: 6/1 (14.29%) Kelly stake = £26.64 (or £12.50 each-way) |
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Summer Stakes, York
Serious Attitude (2/1) has plenty to prove, and I wouldn't be putting her ahead of the often under-rated Lesson In Humility (7/2) in this market. Danehill Destiny, who at least has proved her effectiveness over 6f as a 3yo may be the bigger danger. The formbook suggests that Lesson In Humility should be no bigger than 5/2 here, and possibly shorter if the ground quickens up. Bank = £757.50 Available odds: 7/2 (b e t 3 6 5) My odds: 5/2 (28.57%) Kelly stake = £61.82 (or £60.50) |
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Maurice de Nieuil
An interesting race on the Grand Prix de Paris undercard, with Pointilliste probably a fair favourite. A few of these, however, may be better over further than tonight's 14f trip (Bannaby, the fav?), while Shemima blunted her reputation against her own sex last time out albeit over a sharper trip. So a chance is taken on Voila Ici at 7/1. His limitations were recently exposed by Quijano in Milan's Grand Prix, but he shaped as if this step up to 14f might suit. Bank = 697 Available odds: 7/1 (L a d b r o k e s) My odds: 11/2 (15.58%) Kelly stake = £24.53 (or £25) |
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A rare win for this thread: Voila Ici is clearly a limited Group performer, but he looks a game battler.
Darts: World Matchplay Kicks off this weekend, so time for another lucky dip into the bottom half of the draw, the idea being to find someone at a decent price to beat Wade and/or Barney en route to the final against Taylor. Andy Hamilton has failed to fulfil his potential so the 3 to concentrate on are Gary Anderson, Terry Jenkins and Jamie Caven. Anderson is talented and at 20s+ would have been a bet, but the best price 12/1 about him is unappealing. So that leaves a couple of speculative bets on the talented but in-and-out Bully at 40/1 and the promising Caven at 150/1. The last-named must play Wade in the 1st round but showed loads of bottle when losing to Taylor with a big average in Vegas last time out. Tricky to "Kelly" this market, so I'll just commit around 2% of the bank. Bank = £872 Terry Jenkins: £5 e/w at 40/1 (B l u e S q) Jamie Caven: £2.50 e/w at 150/1 (B l u e S q) |
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ttt
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nice result with Voila Ici
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Cheers tobermory.
Cheers also to Bully Jenkins for making the final of the arrers, providing a 20/1 return on the small Matchplay bet. Bank now = £962. |
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5.10 Goodwood
I have a tendency to discriminate in favour of course form at Goodwood and that doesn't come much better represented than Piscean's 3 out of 3 here. At top weight, 4lbs above his best winning mark, and useless recent form, the market may well be right to overlook him but on this particular track I'd have him no bigger than 16/1. Jimmy Ryan is a horse I thought I'd never see again, yet over 4 years after going close here in a Listed event, he shows up at his favourite track for one last blast. Speculative indeed, but at 33s he is worth a small interest. Bank = 962 Piscean available odds: 25/1 (H i l l) My odds: 16/1 (5.88%) Kelly stake = £20.35 (say £10 each-way) Jimmy Ryan available odds: 33/1 (C o r a l) My odds: 25/1 (3.85%) Kelly stake = £9.01 (say £10 win) |
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Glorious Stakes
Muhannak could be gone after his exertions across the globe last year but at 16 on here is worth a small bet in this woeful looking Group 3, which has more than a fair share of doubtful stayers and indifferent performers. Beckett has given him plenty of time, which is at least a small plus. Bank = 942 Available ofdds: 16 (betfair) My odds: 12/1 (7.69%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = £11.42 (say £12 win) |
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8.30 Windsor
Windsor has brought out the best in Dressed To Dance, so now that she's back down to a winnable mark I'm happy to take a double figure price in tonight's finale. She has a decent enough draw in box 11. She'll probably be detached early, though, so may need a bit of luck in running. In a biggish field of 15 she probably has no better than a 10% chance of winning, but that still justifies a small bet. Bank = £930 Odds: 11/1 (generally available) My odds: 9/1 (10%) Kelly stake = £16.91 (say £15 win) |
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1.10 Ascot
It'll be interesting to see if Jimmy Ryan, given a mark of 88, has anything to offer the game after such a long time off the track. With his profile, it's only possible for those close to the yard to estimate his true odds, so I'll just pitch them at the 14/1 generally avaiblable in the market, and take the 18.5 on offer here. Bank = 915 Available odds: 18.5 (betfair) My odds: 14/1 (6.67%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = £9.66 (say £10 win) |
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Jimmy Ryan was withdrawn.
Arlington Million About 10 mins from post time, but if Cima de Triomphe's on-course price of around 9/1 stands up, he's a bet. The Eclipse form is doing just fine, and I'm not sure the ground is all that bad in Chicago. Gio Ponti & Einstein, while holding fair chances, look too short at 9/5 & 5/2 respectively. Bank = £915 Current odds: 9/1 My odds: 5/1 (16.67%) Kelly stake = £67.81 (call it £65) |
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King's Apostle & Lesson In Humility & possibly Sertiuous Attitude look overpriced for the Maurice de Gheest this afternoon, but at around 16 on the PMU the Haggas beast looks the best value call.
Bank = 850 Current odds: 15/1 My odds: 10/1 (9.09%) Kelly = £25.75 (say £25 win) |
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There was a bit of late money for King's Apostle, who returned at 13.8/1 on the PMU.
Bank = £1,195 |
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Gt Voltigeur
This should be a cracking renewal. I like Harbinger a lot, and Alwaary has put some good stuff in the book, but I just think the top 4 should be a bit closer together in the market. If so, Jukebox Jury and/or Father Time are overpriced. The King Ed VII didn't look great before the race, but I remember liking the way Father Time stayed on strongly through the last furlong that day. York is the other way round but the ground will be fine for him, and that effort at the Royal meeting gives him a 5/1 chance at least. I'd have him a bit shorter but for the penalty. Bank = £1195 Available odds: 6/1 (generally) My odds: 5/1 (16.67) Kelly stake = £33.24 (say £35) |
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nice
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Great Call , missed that, going well now
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1.30 Thirsk
Ishe Mac ran an absolute shocker at York last time out, and has been off the track for a good while since. That'll be why he's 20+ for today's sprint at Thirsk. But I thought he was a little unlucky the time before that when messed about in a fair race over 7f at the Dante meeting. If he can reproduce that form off a 6lb lower mark, he could go a bit better than his odds suggest in this weaker event. He's drawn 1 which is probably not ideal in a field of this size, but at least Norton has the option of going for the far rail. The horse is a prominent runner so should just about have enough pace for this step back to 6f. Bank = £1,160 Available odds: 21/1 (betfair) My odds: 14/1 (6.67%) Kelly stake (incl 5% commission): £22.51 (say £20 win) |
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Wow, superb stuff well done. :)
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Wd Bachhanal :-)
Just post more bets! Lol... |
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Cheers, and apologies to the filly for thinking she was a colt.
Subtract 5% from £420 and new bank = £1559. |
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Is it possible to use the Kelly plan for laying Bachhanal???
and if so do you know what the formula would be??? Thanks :-) |
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Benni, I'm sure you could use Kelly principles for laying. Say you have a bank of £1000 and you see that Delegator can be laid at 1.87 for the Celebration Mile, but think the horse's "true odds" are no better than evens, you should have sufficient information. Perhaps other, more numerate, forumites can help with the formula itself, taking into account commission.
Not sure if this link is any practical use but I'll post it anyway: http://www.thestakingmachine.com/laykelly.php |
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very well done :)
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Many thanks Bachannal :-)
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Prix de Meautry
A weak looking Group 3 sprint at Deauville today, so a pity there's no GB interest: horses like Lesson In Humility or High Standing could have gone very close. There could yet be an angle, though, by taking on likely favourite Mariol, who ran a blinder in the Maurice de Gheest at this track recently. A reproduction of that run would be more than enough, but his overall profile is unconvincing. If he misfires, the 3yo filly Aiboa could step in. She could manage only 5th behind Stern Opinion last time out but the step back up to 6f should help. Best price here is 7/2, which we'll take but (with Soumillon riding Tayseer) hopefully she'll be nearer 4/1 on the PMU. Bank = £1559 Available odds: 7/2 (generally) My odds: 3/1 (25%) Kelly stake = £55.68 (say £55 win) |
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thnx Bachannal. good post
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2.35 Chantilly
Hallies Comet hasnt done much this year, but has improved since stepping down into listed events and premier hcaps. This listed race in France doesnt look especially competitive, with many of the home contingent well beaten by Soneva a few weeks ago, so the Irish raider just about merits a small play. Bank = £1504 Likely odds: 12/1 (pari-mutuel) My odds: 10/1 Kelly stake: £22.77 (say £12 win, £12 place) |
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Sprint Cup
This ground is probably too much against him, but Finjaan is a bit too big now at over 8/1 on here. The time of the first race wasn't especially slow, although a fast ground type like Hamish McGonnagall has clearly misfired. At around 6s I'd leave the Tregoning beast alone, but he's big enough now to warrant a bet. I think he can develop into a fine sprinter over 6f, but obviously quicker ground would be optimum. Bank = £1480 Avaialable odds: 8.4/1 My odds: 6/1 (14.29%) Kelly stake (inlc 5% commission) = £52.53 (say £50 win) |
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3.45 York (Sun)
Perhaps Harrison George is fated to draw a blank all season, but the early quote of 7/1 for tomorrow's sprint hcap at York still looks a bit big to me. He's been well fancied to strike at the track this year but ran into a ready-to-go Valery Borzov one time and stumbled away his chance another. Hanagan's on top, he's drawn in the middle which is usually OK at York, and there should be some helpful cut in the ground. Bank = £1430 Available odds: 7/1 (b e t 3 6 5) My odds: 11/2 (15.58%) Kelly stake = £50.34 (say £50 win) |
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5.25 Doncaster
Not one to get too excited about, but Atlantic Story is worth a small bet at 16/1. He may need to drop a few more pounds to be truly competitive on turf but he's copped a nice draw on the stands' rail today and I expect Easterby would love a winner at this meeting. Bank = £1380 Available odds: 16/1 (generally available) My odds: around 13/1 (7.14%) Kelly stake = £18.44 (say £10 each-way) |
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A decent 3rd from Atlantic Story there, but he had his chance from a good draw and just needs to slip down a few more pounds. New bank = £1410.
Portland Hcap Tomorrow's Portland doesn't look all that hot, notwithstanding a field of 22, so I'm going to have a small bet on in-form Pavershooz, who's done so well since stepping back to 5f. Encouraging to see stablemate Hotham go well at the meeting yesterday. It'll be hell for leather and the extra half furlong here may stretch him, so at 8s he's by no means hugely overpriced, but a small play nonetheless. Bank = £1410 Available odds: 8/1 (generally available) My odds: 7/1 Kelly: £22.03 (say £20 win) |
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5.30 Sandown
Just one of those guesses when you're scanning the fields for scraps of soft ground form. African Cheetah (by Pivotal) hasn't put it in the book yet, but there was undoubtedly a bit of cut in the ground for his maiden win at Newcastle. He looked a bit laboured to be honest until he got on top, but did improve for the step up to 10f and stamina could be the name of the game today at this track. Been off the track for a while and fairly weak in the market, so taking his wellbeing on a wing & prayer. Bank = 1390 Available odds: 10/1 (V C , C o r a l) My odds: 8/1 (11.11%) Kelly stake = £30.87 (say £15 e/w) |
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Prix d'Aumale
Tom Dascombe's Ruler Of My Heart is currently trading at around 5/1 for this Group 3 over a mile, but brings a commanding Listed win to the table and should be no bigger than 4s in my book. With the exception of the Fabre trained Baahama, there isn't much in the field that looks unexposed. Bank = 1360 Likely odds: 5/1 (PMU) My odds: 4/1 (20%) Kelly stake = £54.40 (say £50 win) |
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I'm trying this with tennis and anything higher than quarter kelly is too high in my opinion.
Quarter Kelly is extremely conservative, so you're probably not nailing down your probabilities tightly enough. |
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bacchanal,
Apologies if youve already mentioned this as I havent read the entire thread, but how are you handling these Kelly stakes? Are you using the full Kelly suggestion? |
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JPG,
Yes, I'm applying the full Kelly. On a few occasions the stake as a percentage of bank has been high but generally they've been fine. In a while I'll do an analysis of this exercise, and compare its success/failure with other staking systems such as 1pt level stakes. So far, though, I'm tentatively encouraged that Kelly could be the long-term way forward for me. |
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bacchanal,
Thanks for the response. When you look back at your data theres actually two things Id be interested to hear about: 1) The overall financial plus/minus plus swings etc But just as crucially, 2) How the (generally) higher stake levels compared to "normal" staking leads to the mental side of your betting. I appreciate that translating that from one person to another and then to another is far from ideal as everybody reacts differently but Id be interested to hear it all the same. What I mean is, lets assume you're 100% accurate with your own odds, then Kelly staking will be the optimum stake to use. However, even in this scenario, it could be destructive if in the short term, the stake and swing sizes are too much to handle. Im not saying your a victim to this at all, just curious to see what yuo come up with here. For certain types of my betting I use half kelly, sometimes quarter but this is more to do with giving myself more margin for error on my "own" prices then to do with short term tolerance but Id be lying if I was to say this was completely out of the equation! Thanks again for the response. |