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Been away for a couple of days and have the rare pleasure of a good lunch today. Will review the thread and respond tonight - thanks to all for the input.
A pity the forecast 13/2 about Speedy Senorita in the last at Thirsk tonight hasn't materialised. 5f on fast ground plus the assistance of a top young claimer suggests to me that 4s is about the right price, but that's about all you can get now, so no bet. |
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Whatever happened to Minnow?
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Thanks to askari1 and tobermory for their encouragement.
I have an open mind on Kelly, and I expect it's going to take a fair while before I can draw any firm conclusions. First impressions are that I like the logic that underpins the system, but I'm wary of the major pitfalls waiting if you** up your "true odds" estimates. Seems to me that you can hit nine out of ten estimates about right, but still get burnt by the one you screw up big style. One thing I am clear about, though, is a general tendency in my own game to stake too low, which needs to be addressed even if it means moving out of the old comfort zone. (As for the absent Minnow, Latalomne, I'm afraid I haven't heard from the old boy in a good many years, ever since that unfortunate business involving the wife of a senior steward, the betting exchanges and photo finishes. Some say he booked a one way ticket to the island of Halmahera, and they could be right: he spent many happy days there in his youth, as you may recall.) |
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Looking at the opener at Folkestone tonight, Amosite's done well since they stepped her back to 5f and tried to make all.
Up 9lb since her Nottingham win, so any improvement to come is likely to be short-lived, but she's in decent nick and the 8s and 15/2 about this morning are a bit bigger than the 6/1 I expected to see. The fav is a maiden winner having its first run of the season, and you wouldn't often be too sorry to take those on. Another race with an each-way shape. Bank = 1,205 Avaialable odds: 15/2 (C o r a l) My odds: 6/1 (14.29%) Kelly stake = £34.49 (say £17.50 each-way) |
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A non-runner today. Bank remains £1,205.
It's surprising how the subject of staking is neglected in the punting "literature". The latest book on the shelves (the patchy Enemy Number One by Patrick Veitch) is no different, but contains a few interesting extracts: "I am often asked what type of character is best suited to betting for a living. The nearest description I have found is a combination of a brain surgeon and a mad axeman. The selection process is carried out by the brain surgeon. When he's done his part, the door is kicked open by the mad axeman. A willingness to trade aggresively, the ability not to care when a fortune is at stake on one day... The ability to bring both sides to gambling in equal measure has brought me huge returns while never putting a large percentage of my capital at risk." "There are always periods when nothing seems to go right. In such periods it is possible to run up sizeable losses. However, the size of my bets is always conservative relative to my capital. I've always been able to be almost certain that a losing run would not make deep inroads into my capital." We are not told, however, how this uneasy balance of punting aggressively on the one hand while remaining conservative relative to capital on the other, is achieved. |
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I think staking is the most important part.
While a losing system will never be turned around by good staking but a good system can be ruined by irrational staking. I wonder how many people say "it can't be done" - when its their staking thats inadequate and not the selection method. |
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Agree with you, ZBH. I suspect there are scores of punters out there with a tremendous knowledge of the sport but a a losing habit, attributable mainly to bad money management.
On his Dubai form, Eastern Anthem is hugely overpriced, at 14/1, for the Coronation Cup on Friday. I thought his win in the Sheema Classic was exceptional, coming from right out the back off a steady pace and forced wide round the home turn. On that form (Youmzain well beaten) he'd be up near the head of the market. Two massive buts, though: (1) he's no longer handled by bin Shafya who had an astonishingly good Carnival; and (2) bin Suroor says he's not fully wound up for this first race of the European campaign. These negatives downgrade his chances considerably to somewhere nearer the 10/1 mark. In Godolphin's care last season this horse couldn't win at Listed level. And he really ought to be ready to go on Friday because there's no suitable Gp 1 over 12f for him at the Royal meeting. It'll be no big surprise to see him under-achieve, so caution is called for. Bank: £1,205 Avaialbale odds: 14/1 (S t a n J a m e s) My odds: 10/1 Kelly stake = 31.29 (or £30) |
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Prepared to give the very speedy Dispol Keasha another chance, on the assumption that the ground went too soft at York last time. It's a drifter, and may drift out more, but the 10/1 on here is at least 2pts too big for me, and worth taking now:
Bank = £1,175 Avaialable odds 10/1 Betfair My odds: 8/1 (11.11%) Kelly Stake (taking account of commission @ 5%) = £20.60 (call it £20) |
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Uninspiring stuff on this thread so far - the only reason it's in profit is down to Kelly...
2.15 Folkestone Triple Dream travelled OK on his first trip over 5f when 2nd at Bath about a month ago. You have to forgive an ordinary run next time out over 6f, which was in one of those races for inexperienced or clueless riders. Back over 5f today and with Drowne back on top, I've estimated his chance at 7/1 in what is clearly a tricky heat. Bank = 1155 Available odds: 9.8 (betfair) My odds: 7/1 (12.5%) Kellt stake (incl 5% commission) = £23.49 (or £25) |
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extract from Amarillo Slim in a World full of Fat People (2003) published by Yellow Jersey Press:
"Everybody asks me about my biggest sports bet. My goodness, it was a long time ago, January 12 1969, for Super Bowl III between the Baltimore Colts and the New York Jets. The Colts looked like a damn juggernaut when they beat the Cleveland Browns 34-0 in the NFL title game. And since the Jets barely sneaked by the Raiders 27-23 in the AFL title game, everyone figured it would be a blowout. No one even seemed to mind that the Colts' quarterback, Johnny Unitas, was questionable for the game with a sore elbow, and the line opened with the Colts favoured by 17.5 pts . By game time, it was a 21.5 pt spread. What I do is, before the line even comes out, I do my own research - and it's nothing you can't do yourself, looking at the teams' statistics, common opponents, injuries, and all that stuff - and figure out what I think the line should be. For Super Bowl III, I thought the Colts should have been favoured by 12 so I loved the Jets at +21.5. There are rumours that I made an awful big bet on the Jets, but I believe it stared with a four and had between four or six zeroes after it. Was I a wreck watching the game? Hell no! I knew I had already made a good decision and was getting good value, and if the result wasn't favourable, I'd just take my lumps like a man and that would have been that. As it turned out the final score was 16-7, so the winner didn't make no difference to my wallet. But in case you've been holed up in a cave all your life, it was in favour of the Jets." |
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Good thread, bacchanal. Are you finding that the anticipation of Kelly 'forcing' you to put more on your fancy (than you are comfortable with) is having any effect on your selection and/or your estimated price?
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No, not with this starting bank, ged. But if I did a Kelly with all my readies it would almost certainly have an impact. Hopefully, over time, this experiment will teach me a thing or two about loosening-up & taking the emotion out of staking.
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having said that, it would be true to say that I've been a bit more conservative than I might otherwise have been at estimating some of these horse's true odds, especially the bigger priced ones - so I think your key point is spot on.
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5.30 Salisbury
Brunelleschis good run came to an end at Newmarkt last time out, and it would be fair to assume hes now too high in the hcap to win. But he was badly interfered in that race, so I thought I might I give him a chance if overlooked by the market next time out. On the drift all day, it looks like the market has done just that. Not a race to get too excited about, though, with inexperienced riders, a no-whips rule and a gamble on an Irish raider thats shown no form whatsoever thrown in. Bank = 1130 Available odds: 9.2 (betfair) My odds: 13/2 (13.33%) Kelly stake (less 5% commission) = £24.91 (or £25) |
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There is no better syste mthan Kelly staking, I was first introduced to it thanks to betessence.com group applyint this for its visitors and clients, never delay starting using it as it really works! Man is a maniac without mathematic discipline in betting
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Good pick. Unlucky. Did you adjust your price estimate in the light of the late goings-on with the Donohue horses, or simply make a mathematical reduction for the non-runner(s) based on odds at the time? I don't intend making a habit of butting into your thread, as this question is not Kelly-related - but I'm curious to know how you feel confident of pricing up a race in which there appear to be shenanigans in the market and a right plot. Do you just ignore them?
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I went in a bit too early there to be honest. My horse went out to 12s nearer the off when the exchange money started to come for the Irish horse, and a couple of others were well backed too, particularly Hobson.
At this stage my approach is basic. I see a horse that is bigger in the market than I think it should be, and big enough to tempt me into a bet. In this race the money for others in the market pushed mine out to a price I was prepared to take. The difficult bit is then assessing what its actual chances are (the Kelly bit). I'm certainly not applying much maths to this aspect, just instinct, but it's an interesting exercise. Supermassive Muse is an unlikely winner of the 8.45 at Chester tonight, but 25 on here is too big about a horse with some decent "previous" on this track. Having decided that 25 is a price worth taking, I have to take a view on the horse's actual chance. I'd put it at around the 16/1 mark. This I think is realistic given the wide(ish) draw and uninspiring recent form. Bank = 1105 Available odds: 24 (betfair) My odds: 16/1 (5.88%) Kelly stake (minus 5%) = £19.36 (or £20) |
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bacchanal,
Do you price up every horse in the race and then go for the one with the biggest discrepancy in the actual odds , or do you just have an idea of the 'fair' price for a horse you've been following from earlier runs? |
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6.20 Goodwood
I liked the way Bernie The Bolt stayed on in what looked a decent 12f maiden for Chepstow last time out. Ive been waiting for Balding to step him up in trip and hes wasted no time sending him over 14f. I think he should be able to exploit a mark of 75 over this sort of distance. The slight concerns are (1) he may want even further, and (2) the quirkiness of the Goodwood track. If theres another unexposed and better treated animal stepping into the race, so be it, but Bernie The Bolt would have been a bet for me at anything better than 7/2 today. Bank = £1085 Available odds: 11/2 (P o w e r) My odds: 7/2 (22.22%) Kelly stake = £87.65 (or £90) |
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tobermory, unlike players like Eddie The Shoe and Dave Nevison, I do not construct a 100% tissue for all runners and then go after the ones apparently under-rated by the market. Taken to its logical conclusion, though, this is really what Kelly demands. But it doesn't suit my approach.
In many cases I'm looking out for certain "notebook horses" (Sandown has developed an interesting thread on a similar subject) and whether or not they look significantly overpriced. You can't do that, of course, without having some sort of view about the relative chances of the opposition, but I try not to get too bogged down in the various strands of form. |
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Back to where we started from - how boring.
3.10 York Dreadful day's racing before Royal Ascot, but this is a good race in its class. I like quite a few in the race (Master of Disguise, Sloop Johnb) but the most overlooked is probably Macdillon, who was backed on his reappearance when beaten by quite a good horse (Shamwari Lodge) and has been drawn right up the middle which I've always liked here. It'll be a better price on the exchanges, but I want to split the Kelly stake e/w. Bank = 995 Available odds: 12/1 (generally available, but best odds guaranteed at H i l l) My odds: 9/1 (10%) Kelly stake = £24.88 (or £12.50 e/w) |
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Good thread Bacc - nice to read something interesting for a change.
...also like your selection of Macdillon today - just worried that the fav might be too good, but never be afraid of one horse blah de blah... |
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Great to hear from you, the mole. Master of Disguise's form looks so strong, doesn't it (I got a small amount on at the curious price of 9/2 this morning), but you never know. Maybe the draw is against him a bit.
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Possibly - that is the one thing about Macdillon - a front runner in the middle of the track isn't going to be drawn out of things.
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Triple Aspect & Noble Storm both look good for the 3.25 at Sandown but Fault shouldn't be 29 on here, and is worth a "small Kelly".
Bank = 970 Avaialable odds: 29 (betfair) My odds: 20/1 (4.76) Kelly Stake (5% commission) = £11.44 (£10) |
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Fault ran a lot better than its price there.
Might have got 3rd but for being hampered |
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Yeah, just lacked a bit of class to avoid that trouble.
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What do you do about the Cathedral Stakes at Salisbury today?
Even though you might think Palace Moon is a likely winner, how big do the odds of Diana's Choice have to go before you back her? |
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She was pushed out to 5/2 for a while but is back in now to something more in line with expectations.
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A very small e/w bet on Raine's Cross in today's Coventry. Looks quirky but there's some ability there. Did eventually get rolling at the fag end of the National Stakes over a furlong shorter.
Bank = 960 Available odds: 20/1 (L a d b r o k e s) My odds: 16/1 (5.88%) Kelly stake = £11.27 (or £5 e/w) |
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Jersey
At 10 now on betfair Loch Linnhe has shifted to a price I'm prepared to take. Most unexposed maiden winners are found out or at least find their level when immediately stepped up in grade, but I was sufficiently impressed with this one's win first time out to consider supporting it next time. A general 6s last night (13/2 in a place) looked short enough, though, and I was all set to leave it alone. The fav (made all last time) is drawn well away from the pace here, which seems concentrated in the low stalls: Jobe (1), Ocean's Minstrel (2), Saucy Brown (4), Deposer (6). Hopefully Loch Linnhe (7) doesn't need to lead himself and can sit in behind these. Bank = 950 Available odds: 10 (betfair) My odds: 7/1 (12.5%) Kelly stake (minus 5%) = £21.53 (or £20) |
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Hoping that one wins
Backed Fortune for the Top Jockey, last chance to get involved in it really. |
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this thread can stop anything, tobermory!
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King George V Hcap
Guessing games at work here (what's new?!) but 14s could be quite generous about Highland Glen in the last tomorrow - a race I think I'm right in saying that Johnston & Stoute have harvested over the years. I thought about this race the moment he crossed the line in his (admittedly weak) maiden and will forgive the run on dreadful Haydock ground last time out. Bank = 930 Available odds: 14/1 (S t a n J a m e s) My odds: 10/1 (9.09%) Kelly stake = £24.15 (or £25) |
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Raiders in France are no longer sent off at the hugely inflated odds of yesteryear (remember Confidential Lady, Alcazar and Patavellian?), but the angle is still worth pursuing.
In the big 4YO hurdle at Auteuil today, the market should be more respectful of Jumbio Rio's chances, after he ran todays' favourite close in a similar evemnt a month ago. The morning forecast on the PMU has him at 12/1 but he'll more likely be sent of at around 5/1. More unexposed is Willie Mullins' Mourad, who may improve for the step up in trip - although whether he'll improve past the O'Grady horse is another matter. He's forecast at around 14/1 but it's anyone's guess where he'll end up in market - I suspect around 8s. On father's day I'm not going to be around to monitor the market closely and run the numbers through a Kelly Kalculator. Instead, I'll spend 4% of the existing bank bank of £905 (= £36) backing both horses win & place (ie Jumbo Rio £9 win & £9 place & Morad £9 win & £9 place) on the PMU. |
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Similar play on Jukebox Jury in the Prix Daphnis:
Bank = 886 PMU odds: 6.5 My odds: 9/2 (18.18%) Kelly stake = £29.27 (or £30) PMYU odds subject to change, unfortunately. |
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Here's a tissue produced by a well known tipster for last week's Prince of Wales Stakes:
10/11 Never On Sunday (SP 7/2) 3/1 Vision D'Etat (SP 4/1) 10/1 Trincot (SP 16/1) 12/1 Tartan Bearer (SP 6/4F) 50/1 Twice Over (SP 9/1) 50/1 Estejo (SP 66/1) 66/1 Virtual (SP 14/1) 100/1 Tazeez (SP 16/1) |
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Keep going bacchanal, your staking and selection seem sensible so far.
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7.25 Musselburgh
Don't think Wicked Wilma should be a double figure price, despite the double figure draw at Musselburgh tonight. Thought she put in a decent effort against a good horse on a roll at Carlisle last time out - and that was her seasonal reappearance. With a horse that likes to get on with it, you'd like (1) a bit less pace in the race than seems likely (Rocketball in the stall next door is a concern), and (b) a box nearer the rail, but this still looks to me no worse than a 7/1 shot. Bank = 856 Available odds: 11.5 (betfair) My odds: 7/1 (12.5%) Kelly stake = £31.91 (call it £31) |
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in the circumstances, not a bad effort from Wicked Wilma there.
2.30 Brighton 6f on fast ground at Brighton? Must be time once again to back Who's Winning, with George Baker on top a nice bonus. Initially I thought a general (and pretty tight) 8/1 would be the best going, but the bit of money for Jonny Ebeneezer has helped push the old boy out to a backable price. His winning days may be behind him but at least he gets his ideal conditions today. Bank = £825 Available odds: 10/1 (s p o r t i n g b e t) My odds: 7/1 (12.5%) Kelly stake = £30.94 (or £30) which you might just about get on with this comedy bookmaker |