The MWDS Championship Ratings Thread

and as a parting shot, back QPR each way with Coral at 16/1

: )

MWDS, You left the pub early!

First, well done on last night. I watached your scores with more interest than the CL games.

Second, here is what I was going to post later:

I, myself, have had problems getting conversations going on ratings as well. Not sure why. For me, it came down to a few years ago being paid for my time to watch and rate for some individuals. I've always used ratings and filters to create short lists to focus on. It seems you have done the same since it does not always come down to superior rating figures but the rating being put in context (make sense)

I was going to start a post on OLBG on the matter (are you a member) for ideas and approaches. I then focused on more reading and looking at different weights and am now running ratings on PL and the Australian League (re: 10 teams - wanted to see how it reacted). I was about to post that I would then set up the Championship so we could compare the ratings (retro to the beginning of the season). Mrs Shapeshifter is taking off with Shapeshifter jr and Princess Shapeshifter for ten days as of tomorrow. I am spending the time finally catching up and extending my ratings to more leagues is top on the agenda (now that there is enough results).

I more than happy to contribute to the thread further and discuss aspects once I have the Championship to speed (not long - everything automated. A week takes around 10 minutes to enter and get the ratings updated). Or, as I said, on OLBG, would seek you out there.

Anyways, t-minus 22 hours till everyone except me is packed and gone.

Either way, well done on finding an edge in a 24 team league.

interesting, SS.

i was only thinking about the A League the other day as im moving to OZ in a year or so. how accessible are the relevant stats?

it would be good to see your Championship ratings when you get them up to speed. I used to be a member at OLBG but that was ages ago and ive no idea of my username. I'll have a look and maybe set up another account as i'd be very keen to learn how i could possibly automate my ratings - i'm only a novice when it comes to Excell

cheers

MWDS - you can get me at mwdsratings @ hot.... .com

address in my book. Will touch base later.

Historically I have found this the hardest division to crack of the english leagues. Very impressive run at the moment - well done.

What is OLBG?

type it into google

what bets would you have using the ratings and odds below?


Saturday 24th October 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Barnsley 12.75 Bristol City 12.04
2.58, 3
C.Palace 13.92 Nottm Forest 12.67
2.5, 3.05
Coventry 17.45 West Brom 15.46
3.95, 2.2
Derby 19.25 QPR 12.58
2.9, 2.76
Newcastle 18.46 Doncaster 12.29
1.62, 7
Peterborough 20 Scunthorpe 10.85
2.3, 3.45
Plymouth 14 Ipswich 20.88
2.58, 3
Preston NE 19.33 Middlesbrough 17.5
2.64, 2.94
Reading 12.96 Leicester 14.87
2.54, 3.1
Sheff Utd 17.83 Cardiff City 14.16
2.54, 3
Swansea City 18.92 Blackpool 13.25
2.3, 3.6

cov, derby, ipswich, leicester?

spot on!

done yours for the weekend yet?

My ratings throw up three

Notts Forest
Middlesbrough
Leicester

Yes - have to check those as not at the right computer at the moment.

From memory none of those came up on mine which is the first time that's happened (I had posh as bets the other night for example, and quite a few others that you did). When i am in front of the right figures I'll put a post in (hopefully tomorrow).

My Way De Solzen 22 Oct 14:08
what bets would you have using the ratings and odds below?

My approach on ratings is to keep the data on the outcome "based" on the ratings. An example that I have going right now on the Australian League is if the visiting squad is superior by 25 to 50%, 80% of the games are UNDER. And if the superiority of the visitors is between 1 and 10%, the home team has won 7 of 8 matches so far, 50% as underdogs.

So I would have to load your ratings of previous weeks and spot the value within consistant parameters.

I'll might take that on later tonight.

No over/under bets and back with Ipswich. Hmmm.


Saturday 24th October 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Barnsley 12.75 Bristol City 12.04
2.58, 3
C.Palace 13.92 Nottm Forest 12.67
2.5, 3.05
Coventry 17.45 West Brom 15.46
3.95, 2.2
Derby 19.25 QPR 12.58
2.9, 2.76
Newcastle 18.46 Doncaster 12.29
1.62, 7
Peterborough 20 Scunthorpe 10.85
2.3, 3.45
Plymouth 14 Ipswich 20.88
2.58, 3
Preston NE 19.33 Middlesbrough 17.5
2.64, 2.94
Reading 12.96 Leicester 14.87
2.54, 3.1
Sheff Utd 17.83 Cardiff City 14.16
2.54, 3
Swansea City 18.92 Blackpool 13.25
2.3, 3.6

should have backed Peterboro, ho hum.

totals 1x2: 30 bets, 15 wins for + 20.61 units inc 5% comm

under/over: 13 bets, 8 wins for +2.7 units inc 5% comm

....strange esp.....I was just looking at this thread at the bottom....wondering how you did last weekend.....

Lost a tad for the 1st time this season. Leicester saved the dirty sweep.

Still want to pick your brains re automating my ratings at some point. At the moment i do 3 leagues but am sure they would work for up to 15 others.

Will take a moment and email later. Sorry. Been busy.

Looking back I was on WBA side not cov in that game. Had derby as a marginal bet (not enough for me to have bet it) at the final prices (there was a massive gamble on QPR). Had ipswich down as a bet as you did. Leicester game was no bet.

2 bets, QPR and Scunny + QPR at 2.02 on the OVER 2.5 goals market


Friday 30th October 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

QPR 26 Leicester 14.89
2, 4.4

Saturday 31st October 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Bristol City 20.68 Sheff Weds 14.82
2.08, 4.1
Coventry 15.61 Reading 14.78
2.56, 3.1
Doncaster 15.57 Blackpool 12.5
2.5, 3.3
Ipswich 17.68 Derby 9.25
1.98, 4.4
Middlesbrough 16.25 Plymouth 12.28
1.5, 8.6
Peterborough 20.39 Barnsley 12.61
2.22, 3.7
Preston NE 18.71 C.Palace 12.92
2.1, 4
Scunthorpe 20.54 Swansea City 11.18
2.62, 3.1
West Brom 23.78 Watford 12.5
1.65, 6.2
Sunday 01st November 2009
Coca-Cola Championship
Cardiff City 21.64 Nottm Forest 12.5
1.9, 4.8

totals 1x2: 32 bets, 15 wins for + 18.61 units inc 5% comm

under/over: 14 bets, 9 wins for +3.7 units inc 5% comm

2 bets, 2 losers on the 1x2.

a winner and a good run on the UNDER/OVER

My ratings selection for tonight's game would be QPR if I were forced into a bet - there's not enough in it for me at current prices though.

i was unmatched at 2.0 on QPR last night. 2.0 is the lowest price i will take on any bet and i think this rule has served me well. Im going to analyse the last 2 seasons bets shortly to see if i should raise the minimum even higher.

Do you have a minimum price Double_?

There are occasions where I will bet at odds on, but they are sparing. I have found much better yields historically at odds against. I've also found better yields again at prices over 6/4.

So in my experience the tradeoff is between yield and strike rate. Only (IMO) bank size can make you prefer strike rate to yield, if you are a "hardened gambler" and won't slash wrists on losing runs!

I'm starting to take my ratings to the "next level" so that rather than just "rating" how the teams stack up, it is going further and "predicting" the result.

Right now, I have teams rated then after weighing against the opponent, I look at how teams have reacted against teams of similar ratings (i.e. at home and 30% superior, "TEAM A" has won by 1 goal one time and 2 goals 3 times. TEAM B has never beaten a team rated 25% or more better when away. Thus, TEAM A becomes a strong bet).

Now I am looking at team parameters and "predicting" based on those parameters.

Simplifying, I am looking at each performance and how much a team gains or loses from the result.

This creates a max gain/min gain , min loss/max loss in the ratings. As the season progresses, it is becoming obvious that there are minimum and maximum gains a team can achieve. For example, in one category, Chelsea achieve a max gain of 40 to 45 pts on the matches they win. Tottenham; 24 to 36. etc.

From there, by combining teams and looking at this category and running simulations on scores, a frame work of possibilities can be established mainly through eliminating possibilities - example Tottenhams min and max is 24 and 36 when winning so the list of combinations that would fall into that would be drawn up. This would be done with their opponents. After comparing, some results would coincide giving a picture of (a) % of win/draw/loss (b) over under and (c) a selection of correct scores.

Has anyone else have experience in this approach?

I would have thought (if that's supposed to be a real life example) Chelsea should be able to gain LESS points as a max than Spurs, since if Spurs beat Chelsea at stamford bridge that's a more signficant result than Chelsea beating Spurs at WHL? Or have I got the wrong end of the stick from your post there SS?

The ratings were from seperate games.

I just ran two simulations from last weekend (manual right now)

For Everton/Aston Villa, it came up with 1-1 or 2-2 with 1-1 being the actual

For Arsenal Tottenham it came up with 2-1 3-1 with 3-0 as the result.

Rolling back the clock to Chelsea/Tottenham a few weeks ago, only a handful of home and away categories but it pointed to OVERS / Chelsea 2-1 3-1. But any of the predictions giving Tottenham the win fell out of the performance parameters of both teams. So the option might have been lay Spurs. The result (round 6) was 3-0. It seems the ratings offer Tottenham the potential to score against stronger teams but they didn't.

I can see it working to put in perspective. Example, saying "for a TEAM A to beat TEAM B, it would have to have its highest gain of the year. For TEAM B to beat TEAM A, it would have to play average on the road." So additional perspective that means deciding how much to wager.

The correct score would work with narrowing it to 2 results and putting into a £2 acca ;)

No time to do all the past games. Will post PL predictions for this weekend here.

So still rough on processing but here is what it came up with for tonight:

WEST HAM 2-1 / 3-1/
DRAW 1-1 / 2-2 / 3-3
ASTON VILLA 2-3

So, it supports:
LAYING ASTON VILLA
Indicates value on OVERS at 2.14

Putting a point on all the above correct scores, including 2-3 puts a risk of -6 with potential of
1.5 / 5 / 12 / 19 / 70 / 35

No time to "tighten the parameters" to eliminate some of the correct scores (perhaps go with the home side and 2-1/3-1), but, as I said, looks positive for LAY VILLA and OVERS being the selections.

Sorry, just realized my excel was linked to the wrong game. Will post corrected odds later though notice that OVERS is 2.22 on my screen.

yep, line's moved all the way from odds on. Might be possible to get something more juicy later on.

WEST HAM 2-1 / 3-1/
DRAW 1-1 / 2-2 / 3-3
ASTON VILLA 2-3

So a point on each risks -6
returning in order as above:
5 / 21
1 / 12.5 / 70
35

Turning off the brain. Time for some fresh air to dissolve the geek from within.

Be interested to see what you make of Barnsley vs Sheff Wed when you have a minute MWDS

System/beginners luck. Took the overs :)

Ive got Sheff Wed down as a bet this weekend. I've heard they have 5 players out with illness but to be honest i ignore team news, unless it goes as far as not being able to field a team. What do you make of the match Treble _?

That correct score stuff is very interesting. I would guess that there is more scope for profit with correct scores rather than over/under 2.5 goals where the strikerate has to be very strong.


Friday 06th November 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Derby 18.75 Coventry 15.82
2.38, 3.4

Saturday 07th November 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Blackpool 23.36 Scunthorpe 11
1.77, 5.7
C.Palace 14.54 Middlesbrough 17.78
2.8, 2.76
Leicester 19.36 West Brom 16.07
2.7, 2.9
Newcastle 19.54 Peterborough 14.03
1.5, 8
Nottm Forest 20.46 Bristol City 12.5
2.12, 4
Plymouth 14.71 Doncaster 11.78
2.54, 3.2
Reading 13.46 Ipswich 20.64
2.44, 3.25
Sheff Weds 19.36 QPR 14.32
3.15, 2.54
Swansea City 19.04 Cardiff City 15.46
2.56, 3.1
Watford 16.32 Preston NE 14.83
2.54, 3.05

MWDS, when I ran it for last night, it was based on the parameters of the teams. Thus their best and worst performances so far this year.

So essentially, rather than rating afterwards, I rated before.

example: If WH had won 3-0, what would have been their change in ratings. This amount exceeded their best gain of the year so far. So this is eliminated.

So essentially a "box" is created and which scores fall into it.

WH BEST PERFORMANCE RATING - AV WORST RATING
WH WORST - AV BEST
WH BEST - AV BEST
WH WORST - AV WORST

So any that fall into that are possibilities. Last night, six fell into it. So analytically, you are getting more of a picture rather than one team being rated higher than another. If the result last night had finished 1-1 (which it looked like), it would fall into a cube of WH playing average for home and AV playing below average on the road. The 2-1 fell into WH playing the same as 1-1 but scoring in the first half, which they did countered with AV playing average but not scoring in the first half.

The earlier games posted here were done pen and paper so probably the reason less parameters popped up.

Tightening will mean looking at form and building a bit of a curve to smooth things out (i.e. WH had a huge spike because of their performance against Arsenal. My overall ratings smooth this out but the individual matches do not).

I hope you didn't mind the postings. Like yourself, looking for feedback from those reading the thread.

not at all, its interesting stuff and far advanced of my own. keep it up!

Thoughts on team news - it generally evens out over time. I'd be more worried if I was using Kelly and backing a team that kept drifting. At level stakes its not such a drama, although I'd wait until nearer the off to get best price. (I had sheff wed as a small bet last week, and left it and got 5.1 rather than 4.3).

What's also interesting to me is that for the first time my 2 strongest bets in the champ are also yours - ipswich and mboro.

And a treble post - might be fair enough to have a huge spike after the arsenal game. Showed a hell of a lot of spirit and ability to come back from there. I think (as I sort of posted earlier) that that reflects the fact that arsenal risk more from a rating POV than west Ham do when they play each other.

interesting reading, your approach SS.

3 losers, the inevitable losing run after the streak...

totals 1x2: 35 bets, 15 wins for + 15.61 units inc 5% comm

under/over: 14 bets, 9 wins for +3.7 units inc 5% comm

how did your correct scores go at the weekend, SHAPESHIFTER ?

Why isnt this in the football forum?

Who are you, the forum police? I don't believe they employ busybody moderators on here?

If you ever bothered with the football forum, I think you'll see quite quickly why this thread is on GB rather than there. It actually has some worth and sensible discussion.

Why do people spend their time on internet fora posting about what other places a post should be in? Seriously, get out more. And be more humble, or else stick to your handle, and just be quiet.

:^0

My Way De Solzen 10 Nov 15:47
how did your correct scores go at the weekend, SHAPESHIFTER ?

I didn't fire up the premier league this weekend. My only play was going to be Chelsea on Sunday which I passed on after a decent win Saturday night on NHL that I woke up to.

Right now, the "correct score" aspect was manual on some fronts but I've now set up the grid and it will take less than a minute to enter the parameters then around three minutes to look at the match.

Like the example I had for West Ham, it will come down to giving weight to OU 2.5. As well, if the weight of results definately leans towards a team (as it did with West Ham), then the play will be notched up a bit.

I also made money last year laying +3.5. Again, if it would take TEAM A to have its best result and TEAM B to have its worst to push the score over 3.5, then, again, one more flag.

I might make a bit of effort to choose two possibilities that I'll probably throw into an acca each week with a couple of quid. If one lands in a season, great. If not, chances are with some hedging here and there, it might cost me £30 the whole season if I get shut out (last year, landed three correct score accas with more than one match (i.e. 2-1, 2-0). I spend more on the lottery!

It did point out one aspect of my ratings which I need to adjust.

Main thing is it is one more weapon in the arsenal.

Taking advantage of the break to get things to speed.

post-international bump

getting them in early after being starved of action.

2 bets only. Im tempted by palace but Cov, a shocker v WBA apart, have put up some decent figures at home recently.

Since i backed QPR for the title i seem to have been backing against them every week. Hmmm.

Friday 20th November 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Swansea City 19.21 Derby 9.69
1.76, 6

Saturday 21st November 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Barnsley 14.65 Cardiff City 16
3.3, 2.4
Coventry 16.25 C.Palace 16.1
2.7, 2.9
Doncaster 17 QPR 14.86
3.2, 2.5
Ipswich 17.88 Sheff Weds 15.09
2.02, 4.3
Leicester 18.34 Plymouth 12.22
1.72, 6
Middlesbrough 16.12 Nottm Forest 11.34
2.02, 4.3
Reading 14 Blackpool 13.34
2.2, 3.8
Sheff Utd 20.28 Peterborough 14.03
1.7, 6
Watford 18.03 Scunthorpe 11
1.9, 5
West Brom 23.59 Bristol City 11.88
1.65, 6.4

totals 1x2: 37 bets, 16 wins for + 16.7 units inc 5% comm

under/over: 14 bets, 9 wins for +3.7 units inc 5% comm


Ratings for the weekend: still working out the bets but there will be a few

Saturday 28th November 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Bristol City 20.42 Sheff Utd 15.69
2.44, 3.25
C.Palace 14.03 Watford 12.44
2.22. 3.8
Derby 18.81 Reading 16.38
2.76, 2.84
Newcastle 20.5 Swansea City 12.9
1.9, 5
Nottm Forest 19.22 Doncaster 12.22
1.91, 5
Peterborough 20.34 Middlesbrough 17.12
3.55, 2.28
Plymouth 15.62 Barnsley 12.72
2.64, 2.92
QPR 24.93 Coventry 15.82
1.65, 6.8
Scunthorpe 19.25 Leicester 15.94
3.6, 2.28
Sheff Weds 19.31 West Brom 16.28
3.9, 2.2

Coca-Cola Championship
Blackpool 24.18 Preston NE 14.82
2.2, 3.7
Cardiff City 20.28 Ipswich 19.87
1.83, 5.2

1x2: 4 bets, blackpool, sheff wed, blackpool, posh

3 bets on OVER 2.5 goals - QPR, Blackpool, Cardiff - all at 2.0

Ipswich are also a bet at 5.1

Backing blackpool twice MWDS?

Just looked in to see if you had barnsley down as a bet - I did. Still hurts!

I also had ipswich in, but i reckon they still owe me a few quid this season.

On blackpool also.

backing Blackpool in 2 markets, yes.

which Barnsley match?

Ipswich owe me still too. Nearly missed them today as well through sheer slackness.

just twigged, the Plymouth match. that's a shocker.

1x2: 4 bets, blackpool, sheff wed, blackpool, posh

that's what I meant. Actually backing them 3 times then? ;)

1x2: 4 bets, blackpool, sheff wed, (blackpool er Scunthorpe actually), posh.

i got there in the end...

totals 1x2: 42 bets, 17 wins for +16.6 units inc 5% comm = 39.5% R.O.I

under/over: 17 bets, 11 wins for +4.66 units inc 5% comm = 27.4% R.O.I

Very interesting read and looks like your having great success so far 39.5% is very impressive. I'm actually looking to create for my dissertation a piece of software that automatically produces the picks for me, using a rating system.
If you don't mind me asking where did you gain information as to how to create a rating system. I'm currently trying to create my own but struggling a bit. Football-data.co.uk has a very basic one using goals superiority with the last 6 games. Any help you can give me is much appreciated.

jamesyo

i use stats from football-data.co.uk and learned a lot from the guys who run betworld.co.uk who are old work mates of mine and who are much more experienced than me at producing ratings

feel free to email me on mwdsratings@ h otmail .com if you like

the other regular posters on this thread might also be able to contribute

weekends ratings, bets to follow


Saturday 05th December 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Blackpool 24.75 Barnsley 12.71
2, 4.4
Bristol City 21.6 Ipswich 19.88
2.2, 3.7
C.Palace 14.5 Doncaster 11.86
2.02, 4.5
Cardiff City 19.44 Preston NE 15.81
1.81, 5.5
Derby 18.33 West Brom 17.58
4.3, 2
Newcastle 20.33 Watford 11.88
1.6, 7
Nottm Forest 19.19 Leicester 15.94
2.44, 3.2
Peterborough 19.52 Swansea City 13.53
3.3, 2.46
Plymouth 15.62 Sheff Utd 15.81
3.4, 2.32
QPR 26.18 Middlesbrough 17.36
2.34, 3.4
Sheff Weds 18.19 Reading 15.86
2.62, 3

Sunday 06th December 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Scunthorpe 18.58 Coventry 16.59
2.58, 3

Coca-Cola Championship

Watford 18.61 QPR 13.9
2.24, 3.6

bets below + 2 bets OVER 2.5goals, Bris City v Ipswich and QPR v Boro both at around 2.1.

Saturday 05th December 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Blackpool 24.75 Barnsley 12.71
2, 4.4
Bristol City 21.6 Ipswich 19.88
2.2, 3.7
C.Palace 14.5 Doncaster 11.86
2.02, 4.5
Cardiff City 19.44 Preston NE 15.81
1.81, 5.5
Derby 18.33 West Brom 17.58
4.3, 2
Newcastle 20.33 Watford 11.88
1.6, 7
Nottm Forest 19.19 Leicester 15.94
2.44, 3.2
Peterborough 19.52 Swansea City 13.53
3.3, 2.46
Plymouth 15.62 Sheff Utd 15.81
3.4, 2.32
QPR 26.18 Middlesbrough 17.36
2.34, 3.4
Sheff Weds 18.19 Reading 15.86
2.62, 3

Sunday 06th December 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Scunthorpe 18.58 Coventry 16.59
2.58, 3

Coca-Cola Championship

Watford 18.61 QPR 13.9
2.24, 3.6

once again after much umming, arring and beard stroking i've chucked ipswich in as a bet at 3.65

Why Sheff Utd MWDS? Surely Plymouth are the value here, nothing in it on your ratings and Sheff unconvincing in last two wins. 5/2 at home is silly for any team in this league imo.

any away team with a superior rating is a bet for me as long as they are 2.0+

a poor weekend for the ratings. peterboro and blackpool threw away leads late on.

QPR didn't.

bets to follow


Tuesday 08th December 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Doncaster 17.69 Sheff Weds 15.38
2.14, 4
Ipswich 18.19 Peterborough 13.44
1.81, 5.1
Leicester 18.36 Bristol City 11.87
2, 4.4
Middlesbrough 15.55 Blackpool 13.47
1.74, 6
Preston NE 18.71 Derby 8.95
1.94, 4.5
Reading 15.64 C.Palace 15.65
2.22, 3.7
Sheff Utd 20.53 Nottm Forest 11.53
2.3, 3.5
Swansea City 19.52 Plymouth 12.22
1.67, 6.8
West Brom 23.5 Cardiff City 14.91
1.8, 5.4

Wednesday 09th December 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Barnsley 15 Scunthorpe 10.85
1.9, 5
Coventry 16.25 Newcastle 17.43
4.6, 1.9

3 bets for tomorrow , Palace, Sheff Utd and Blackpool. No under/over bets.

totals 1x2: 47 bets, 18 wins for +13.78 units inc 5% comm

under/over: 19 bets, 12 wins for +4.6 units inc 5% comm

From a high of 21.61 units up after only 26 bets it's been a bit of a struggle.

A couple of good results in Palace and Blackpool with another short priced loser in Sheff Utd. Blackpool have put up ratings of 29.25 and 30.25 in their last 2 home draws having 25 and 23 shots respectively.

A clear sign of a team just not getting the breaks. Had they won both those games by the odd goal they'd have been 3/1 shots last night not the 11/2 i saw about an hour before kick off.

Im down a few units backing at odds of 2.0-2.4 so far this term. I'll check the figures at the end of the season but a tweak to only back at a minimum of 2.3 or 2.4 might be on the cards.

totals 1x2: 50 bets, 20 wins for +19.1 units inc 5% comm

under/over: 19 bets, 12 wins for +4.6 units inc 5% comm

i've got to be happy with an ROI of 38%. Whether that's sustainable is another matter.

How is everyone else getting on with their ratings this season? shapeshifter? treble_?

just looked in to see if you had blackpool down as a bet last night. Would have happily backed them at 4/1, so was surprised to be able to back at over 5/1. That's just the market having a very short term view of events, them crumbling against barnsley and boro slapping qpr, which led to a relatively rare BIG value bet.

Have you analysed your figures by home and away also rather than just by price?

I don't think a 40% ROI or anywhere near that is realistically acheiveable in a league where there is such public domain knowledge as there is in the championship in the long run - but I'd be happy to see you prove me wrong!

My personal results have been up and down this year, after a few good years. I'm still in front, and if it wasn't for some last minute goals going against me, i'd be a long way in front. But its still only early december, so I'm still more than hopeful of a reasonable season.

Your very low rating of forest (compared to their league position) seems to suggest to me that your ratings have them down as a lucky team which should be opposed? (if I am reading the ratings correctly that is)

Glad you had Blackpool down as a bet Treble_U. They've been good to me this season - 5 times ive backed them, 3 times they've won for a profit of 6.4 units.

I have analysed my bets by 'home and away' and this season ive had 20 'away' bets for 16.7 units profit, dwarfing the profit made on 'home' bets. Last season, however, I got good profits from the home teams and also from backs at 2.0-2.4. I'm still working with a relatively tiny sample of bets though.

Forest are a team to oppose away from home for me.

cheers and good luck

and ive just realised that Forest are the only team unbeaten away from home in all 4 divisions!

Saturday 12th December 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Barnsley 14.47 Newcastle 16.95
4.4, 2
Coventry 15.82 Peterborough 13.17
2.16, 3.8
Doncaster 17.69 Bristol City 12.9
2.38, 3.3
Ipswich 18.8 Blackpool 13.6
2.26, 3.6
Leicester 17.67 Sheff Weds 15.02
1.81, 5.3
Preston NE 19.15 Plymouth 11.05
1.78, 5.5
Reading 15.1 Scunthorpe 10.75
1.77, 5.3
Sheff Utd 20.17 C.Palace 15.77
2.02, 4.4
Swansea City 19.45 Nottm Forest 11
2.5, 3.2
Watford 19 Derby 9.5
2, 4.4
West Brom 22.35 QPR 13.38
1.72, 5.8

Sunday 13th December 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Middlesbrough 14.8 Cardiff City 14.67
2.18, 3.85

Missed the 2.0 on Newcastle so will almost certainly be unmatched.

3 bets. Watford, Sheff Wed and Cardiff. No under/over bets

Swansea are also a bet at 2.36

matched at 2.0 Newcastle. 5 bets inc swansea + newc

Good luck MWDS. With you on Watford and Newcastle.

totals 1x2: 54 bets, 21 wins for +18.76 units inc 5% comm

under/over: 19 bets, 12 wins for +4.6 units inc 5% comm

excellent ratings, keep going doing some good work.

thanks, tym

5 bets for the weekend

blackpool, middlesboro, ipswich, cov and QPR

Saturday 19th December 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Blackpool 25.3 West Brom 17.62
3.6, 2.24
Bristol City 21.94 Reading 15.65
2.3, 3.5
C.Palace 14.32 Barnsley 12.58
2.1, 4
Cardiff City 19.12 Leicester 15.12
2, 4.4
Derby 18.22 Doncaster 12.3
2.34, 3.4
Nottm Forest 20.07 Preston NE 15.36
1.85, 5.3
Peterborough 18.62 Watford 12.62
2.5, 3.1
Plymouth 14.92 Coventry 16.97
2.6, 3.1
QPR 24.47 Sheff Utd 15.25
2.4, 3.4
Scunthorpe 18.95 Ipswich 20.82
3.0, 2.6
Sheff Weds 17.4 Swansea City 14.1
3.05, 2.6

Sunday 20th December 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

Newcastle 20.37 Middlesbrough 17.95
1.83, 5.3

1 OVERS bet: QPR match at 2.06

totals 1x2: 57 bets, 22 wins for +18.79 units inc 5% comm

under/over: 20 bets, 12 wins for +3.6 units inc 5% comm

Ratings Tables at Christmas

Home

Blackpool 25.3
QPR 23.57
West Brom 23.34
Nott'm Forest 21.43
Bristol City 21.15
Newcastle 20.32
Sheff Utd 20
Preston 19.57
Ipswich 19.38
Cardiff 19.12
Scunthorpe 18.95
Peterboro 18.66
Swansea 18.47
Leicester 18.15
Watford 17.9
Derby 17.63
Doncaster 17.1
Sheff Wed 16.52
Coventry 16.13
Reading 15.41
Middlesboro 15.31
Plymouth 15
Barnsley 14.79
Crystal Palace 14.18

Away

Ipswich 20.82
West Brom 17.62
Middlesboro 17.16
Reading 16.72
Newcastle 16.47
Coventry 16.1
Preston 15.17
Leicester 15.12
Sheff Wed 14.79
Sheff Utd 14.75
Crystal Palace 14.65
Peterboro 14.61
Cardiff 14.38
Swansea 13.81
QPR 13.7
Watford 13.29
Blackpool 13.25
Bristol City 12.59
Doncaster 12.54
Barnsley 12.45
Plymouth 11.75
Nott'm Forest 10.98
Scunthorpe 10.8
Derby 9.52

Form Tables at Christmas - last 6 games

Home last 6

Blackpool 26.29
QPR 23.46
Sheff Utd 23.37
Ipswich 22.75
Nott'm Forest 22.41
Bristol City 22.19
West Brom 21.83
Newcastle 21.79
Watford 20.87
Swansea 18.58
Reading 18.54
Preston 18.16
Doncaster 17.41
Barnsley 16.87
Cardiff 16.83
Leicester 16.45
Derby 16.41
Peterboro 16.29
Coventry 15.87
Scunthorpe 15.75
Middlesboro 15.45
Plymouth 14.83
Crystal Palace 14.5
Sheff Wed 13.37


Away last 6

Ipswich 20.29
West Brom 19.42
Reading 17.83
Coventry 16.95
Newcastle 16.83
Middlesboro 16.79
Swansea 16.54
Cardiff 16.12
Preston 15.58
Peterboro 15.54
Leicester 15
QPR 14.83
Watford 14.08
Sheff Wed 13.95
Crystal Palace 13.45
Doncaster 13.2
Blackpool 13.16
Sheff Utd 13.12
Barnsley 12.58
Bristol City 12.58
Plymouth 11.62
Scunthorpe 11.29
Nott'm Forest 9.96
Derby 9.66

3 Boxing Day bets.

Merry Christmas to all contributors to this thread!


Saturday 26th December 2009
Coca-Cola Championship

C.Palace 14.18 Ipswich 20.8
2.3, 3.45
Cardiff City 19.12 Plymouth 11.75
1.51, 8
Coventry 16.13 Doncaster 12.54
2.46, 3.2
Derby 17.63 Blackpool 13.25
2.64, 3
Leicester 18.15 Sheff Utd 14.75
2.36, 3.3
Middlesbrough 15.32 Scunthorpe 10.8
1.7, 7
Preston NE 19.57 Barnsley 12.45
2.2, 3.8
QPR 23.57 Bristol City 12.59
2.14, 3.9
Reading 15.4 Swansea City 13.81
2.9, 2.6
Sheff Weds 16.52 Newcastle 16.47
5.4, 1.74
Watford 17.9 Nottm Forest 10.97
3.55, 2.3
West Brom 23.34 Peterborough 14.61

Merry xmas to you as well MWDS.

I like QPR and also Ipswich (as usual!) here.

Watford just about marginal - a few more ticks (which one might well get with Forests' form and profile at the moment) and that would be a bet. Although I avoided them last game for the circumstances surrounding the club - its tough to quantify them, and there's plenty more games to bet on.

totals 1x2: 60 bets, 23 wins for +17.88 units inc 5% comm

under/over: 20 bets, 12 wins for +3.6 units inc 5% comm



3 bets, doubtful about Posh but have stuck them in anyway.

Coca-Cola Championship

Barnsley 14.79 Middlesbrough 17.16
2.9, 2.72
Blackpool 25.3 Sheff Weds 14.79
1.81, 5.2
Bristol City 21.15 Watford 13.29
2.16, 3.9
Doncaster 17.1 Leicester 15.12
2.52, 3.2
Ipswich 19.38 QPR 13.71
2.44, 3.25
Newcastle 20.32 Derby 9.52
1.41, 10
Nottm Forest 21.43 Coventry 16.1
1.63, 7
Peterborough 18.66 Cardiff City 14.38
3.6, 2.3
Plymouth 15 Reading 16.72
3.15, 2.5
Scunthorpe 18.95 West Brom 17.62
4.9, 1.88
Sheff Utd 20 Preston NE 15.17
1.88, 4.9
Swansea City 18.47 C.Palace 14.65
2, 4.4

not such a merry xmas for my ratings

totals 1x2: 63 bets, 23 wins for +14.88 units inc 5% comm

under/over: 20 bets, 12 wins for +3.6 units inc 5% comm

Profit is profit !!!!!!!!!!!! Rember that sports betting is low margin so anybody who makes ROI of 2-4% on singles is doing very well !!!!!

treble_ and shapeshifter

how many bets did you have on your Championship ratings up until Xmas, if you dont mind me asking?

I don't separate my championship bets from my other ratings bets - so I can't tell you without a good look at the records I'm afraid.

I can tell you that I usually have at least as many bets as you - sometimes the same number, sometimes more, not noticed less. But then again I'm not getting a double digit ROI this season!

cheers treble_ and good luck for 2009


looks like 2 bets for the weekend, Ipswich (FFS) and Newcastle

Friday 08th January 2010
Coca-Cola Championship

West Brom 23.1 Nottm Forest 10.91
1.82, 5

Saturday 09th January 2010
Coca-Cola Championship

C.Palace 14.81 Bristol City 13.16
2.22, 3.8
Cardiff City 18.77 Blackpool 13.44
1.84, 5
Coventry 15.89 Barnsley 12.45
2.5, 3.15
Derby 17.53 Scunthorpe 10.95
1.97, 4.4
Leicester 18.41 Ipswich 19.93
2.1, 4.1
Middlesbrough 16.45 Swansea City 13.79
2.34, 3.35
Preston NE 19.57 Doncaster 12.25
2.28, 3.75
QPR 22.25 Plymouth 11.37
1.71, 6.2
Reading 15.21 Newcastle 16.25
3.65, 2.26
Sheff Weds 16.66 Peterborough 13.87
2.12, 4
Watford 17.29 Sheff Utd 14.87
2.82, 2.76

cheers treble_ and good luck for 2009

2010 even. doh.

1 bet IPSWICH @ 4.0

agreed on that one MWDS with limited fare at the moment!

totals 1x2: 64 bets, 23 wins for +13.88 units inc 5% comm

under/over: 20 bets, 12 wins for +3.6 units inc 5% comm

ratings for the weekend, bets to follow

Saturday 16th January 2010
Coca-Cola Championship

Barnsley 15.3 Sheff Weds 14.79
2.2, 3.7
Blackpool 25.3 QPR 13.94
2.4, 3.2
Bristol City 21.28 Preston NE 14.18
2.3, 3.6
Doncaster 17.1 Watford 14.72
2.16, 4
Ipswich 19.71 Coventry 15.52
1.9, 4.8
Newcastle 20.14 West Brom 18.7
2.1, 4
Nottm Forest 20.79 Reading 16.12
1.75, 6
Peterborough 19.17 Derby 9.19
2.4, 3.35
Plymouth 15.86 C.Palace 14.43
3, 2.7
Scunthorpe 18.54 Cardiff City 14.58
3.6, 2.28
Sheff Utd 19.81 Middlesbrough 16.62
2.28, 3.65
Swansea City 17.52 Leicester 15.12
2.3, 3.6

5 bets for the weekend: blackpool, watford, west brom, peterboro and leicester + blackpool v qpr in the OVERS market

good luck all

totals 1x2: 69 bets, 23 wins for +8.88 units inc 5% comm

under/over: 21 bets, 13 wins for +4.7 units inc 5% comm

5 losers makes it a losing streak of 11. under/over market still oving forward....slowly.

1 bet for the weekend. Blackpool @ evens.

Saturday 23rd January 2010
Coca-Cola Championship

Blackpool 24.85 Watford 14.61
2, 4.3
Middlesbrough 16.45 Swansea City 13.79
2.34, 3.5
Sheff Weds 16 Peterborough 13.87
1.91, 4.4
Plymouth 15.29 Barnsley 12.95
2.8, 2.9

totals 1x2: 70 bets, 24 wins for +9.83 units inc 5% comm

under/over: 21 bets, 13 wins for +4.7 units inc 5% comm


2 late goals end the losing run.

2 bets for tomorrows matches, Bristol City and Coventry.


Tuesday 26th January 2010
Coca-Cola Championship


Barnsley 15.23 Leicester 14.15
2.72, 2.96
Bristol City 21.82 Cardiff City 15.13
2.6, 3.1
Doncaster 17.75 Middlesbrough 16.15
2.54, 3.2
Ipswich 20.17 West Brom 19.12
3.15, 2.5
Nottm Forest 20.1 QPR 13.8
1.76, 5.5
Peterborough 18.75 Preston NE 14.75
2.6, 3
Plymouth 15.29 Derby 10.14
2.66, 3
Sheff Utd 19.8 Reading 15.42
1.85, 5.4
Swansea City 16.83 Coventry 15.43
1.68, 6.4

+ 1 OVERS bet Ipswich v West Brom @ 1.92

Thread dead MWDS?

as no-one else has been keen to put up their ratings so i think i'll let it rest in peace.

i don't see any point in there being another one man thread on this forum just for the sake of it.

for what it's worth the current figs are 75 bets for +8.83 and bets on preston @5.1, watford @ 4.1 and blackpool @ 2.32 this weekend