A pick of the prices hopefully for profit (2)

Derby County (at 11/8) v Coventry City 2.5 points win

Profit of 4.22 points on the day
Balance now +13.95 points.

Profit figure is WRONG

top tipping.

but agreed profit on day is 3.44pts imo.

Gashwan, thank you as you are, of course, correct. :(. Profit now is 13.17 points.

Blackburn (11/10) v Portsmouth 3 points
Man City (4/11) v Burnley 3 points
Scunthorpe (4/1) at Blackpool 1.5 points
Blackpool v Scunthorpe to Draw (5/2) 1.5 points
Chesterfield (13/10) v Bournemouth 2.5 points
Cheltenham (12/5) at Torquay 1.5 points
Torquay v Cheltenham to draw (5/2) 1.5 points
14.5 points staked.

Small correction on price.
Blackpool v Scunthorpe to Draw (11/4) 1.5 points

derby was a good pick ken, they looked poor in what i saw of the qpr game. not much i fancy today but bournemouth are missing a few and i'm having a little on chesterfield

Loss on the day of 8.20 points.
Bets 14
Staked 30.50 points
Profit 4.97 points

Liverpool (4/11) v Birmingham 3 points win
Sheffield United (9/5) at Barnsley 2 points win.

Loss on the day of 5 points.
Bets 16
Staked 35.50 points
Loss 0.03 points

Bradford (8/5) v Bournemouth 2.5 points
Shrewsbury (5/6) v Torquay 3 points
Macclesfield (7/2) at Aldershotl 1.5 points
Aldershot v Macclesfield to Draw (5/2) 1.5 points

8.5 points staked

all about different opinions they say.. I'm having the 7/2 about torquay, something better than evens on belgium and and a small double at around 8/1

shrews price getting bigger and can't quite work out why. Agree with the other two picks for today though.

Gillingham v Oldham to Draw (5/2) 1.5 points

1.5 points staked.

Treble, I'm deliberately concentrating on book prices rather than Exchange prices, and there will be times it goes against me, as is the case today with Shrewsbury (touching 2.0 now) Regards the draw prices, one is 3.3 and the other 3.85 on here, yet 3.50 with the books !

Sure. Do you subscribe to the theory that in the long run you will need to be beating the exchange closing prices more often than not to turn a profit Ken?

You would think so I suppose, although there are times when the Exchanges, the spreads and the books are well apart from each other, so the best price should suffice. Strange one at Shrewsbury today, drifting on here, yet hardening on the spreads. I have them a 4/6 chance therfore 5/6 seemed a good price. Hard to figure at times !!

I can see the logic for a little torquay support in the "small picture" - recent games. Also torquay have been punted and won a couple of times recently - I think that affects market prices. However I can also understand shrews being 4/6, 8/11 here, not evens.

Shrewsbury 1.99 to back, 2.02 to lay right now.

Loss on the day of 4.75 points.
Bets 21
Staked 45.50 points
Balance - 4.78 points

Brighton (5/1) at Southampton 1 point win
Southampton v Brighton to Draw (3/1) 1.5 points win

2.5 points staked

well played. i didn't think new manager syndrome would have that much effect in 3 days, would give me the hump if i was a supporter, or the outgoing manager..

Profit on the day of 3 points.
Bets 23
Staked 48 points
Balance - 1.28 points

CORRECTION !!


Profit on the day of 3.5 points.
Bets 23
Staked 48 points
Balance - 1.28 points

Derby Co (9/2) at Swansea 1 point stake
Swansea v Derby Co to Draw (13/5) 1.5 points stake

2.5 points staked

belated wd with the Brighton bet

Loss yesterday of 2.5 points.
Bets 25
Staked 50.5 points
Balance - 3.78 points

Aston Villa (5/4) at Burnley 3 points win
Reading (5/4) v Blackpool 3 points win
Scunthorpe (9/2) at Watford 1.5 points win
Watford v Scunthorpe to Draw (13/5) 1.5 points win
Brighton (14/5) v Leeds 1.5 points win
Brighton v Leeds to draw (11/4) 1.5 points win
Stockport (8/5) v Exeter 2.5 points win
Notts County (8/13) v Aldershot 3 points win

17.5 points staked

Loss today of 10.75 points.
Bets 33
Staked 68 points
Balance - 14.53 points :(

Preston (at 11/5) v Newcastle 2 points stake


2.0 points staked

Loss today of 2 points.
Bets 34
Staked 70 points
Balance - 16.53 points

Bury (7/5) v Chesterfield 2.5 points win
Port Vale (5/6) v Torquay 3 points win

Total staked 5.5 points.

Correction !! Bury (7/5) v Chesterfield 2.5 points win
Port Vale (11/10) v Torquay 3 points win

Profit today of 0.5 points.
Bets 36
Staked 75.5 points
Balance - 16.03 points

Man C (3/10) V Hull C 3 points
Portsmouth (9/1) v ManU 0.5 points
Scunthorpe (9/4) v Leicester C 2 points
Sheffield Wed (5/2) v West Brom 1.5 points
Brentford (13/10) v Walsall 2.5 points
MK Dons (4/6) v Exeter City 3 points

Total staked 13.5 points staked

Loss of today of 1.75 points.
Bets 42
Staked 88 points
Balance - 17.78 points

Blackpool v Preston

The draw (5/2) 1.50 stake
Preston NE (13.5) 1.50 stake

3 points staked

Correction ! Blackpool v Preston

The draw (5/2) 1.50 stake
Preston NE (13/5) 1.50 stake

3 points staked

Damn it !! I was looking for the 13.5 :(

GL
:)

An Other losing month on The Football
From The Racing & Football Outlook Tipsters

Ken, can I ask why you only use bookie prices and not betfair?

Ken, could you please clarify why you use different staking on your selections?

Great thread. All the best ken

Profit today of 2.25 points.
Bets 44
Staked 91 points
Balance - 15.53 points

Is that a minus?

DaveEdwards 30 Nov 19:51


Ken, could you please clarify why you use different staking on your selections?

...............................................................................

I'll have another go. Ken, could you please clarify why you use different staking on your selections?

In 44 bets your at minus 14 i don't mean to gloat but as your always having a do at me i made over 100 points profit in 44 bets that was in my thread on this forum, so please don't have a go at me about my betting ken when you obviously do not have any ground to.

You really need to look at your staking plan and a bit of insight as to how you come to your selections wouldn't go a miss.

All the best mate. :D

Sorry your at minus 15 (correction)

u want some, I've just one thing to say to you. Show me your thread with 44 bets, 100 point profit, every bet posted before the event and I will not only quit this forum but I will quit betting.

It's gone quiet Ken

:)

For what it is worth, I am paper trading an idea comparing professional ratings against the high street market. When there is a big enough diff then I have a bet. This worked ok for the first 3 months of the season, but since posting the qualifiers on here, it has disappointed but I will press on for a while. If I get any hassle I will quit.

Keep it going Ken,

I enjoy reading and threads like this, I have just started my own thread..lay the away side.

No doubt I will get some stick/hassle but I have been looking into this "system" for a few months, as you have said a soon as you post the selections it seems to all go wrong :(

Stick at it and GL

:)

Brighton(23/10) V Charlton 1.5 points
Brighton v Charlton to draw (5/2) 1.5 points
Bristol R (20/21) v Exeter C 3 points
Stockport C (12/5) v Swindon T 2 points
Dagenham & R (10/11) v Aldershot 3 points

Total staked 11 points.

Ken keep it going.

Unlike u want some you clearly update after losers and post all your selections before the event.

The forum is a graveyard to his half finished posts which for some reason seem to drift to the bottom when the losers arrive.

Also unlike u want some i`m sure you would`nt post a 60/1 7 team winning acca with one selection to go.

Gl.

Yes , I agree 100% with the other 2 ..keep it going

although I wouldn't blame you for stopping it ..because is it worth the hassle ?

far too many folk on these forums seem quite preapred to stick in the knife ...when people are losing

I don't see things (from a betting perspective ) with Ken ...me for me thats what the forum should be about ..views

but coming on**ging people ...cause they are losing ...is so wrong

oh I see now, you're only paper trading and then when you see value you use REAL money. That explains it ll. I bet all your losers were paper trades and your winners were actual money bets.
Well done and keep it up

Ken its up. Goodbye!

Any bets for tonight ken?

Ken, it's nearly always the way it goes, the moment someone starts posting their previously winning selections on the forum, then they start to got tits up.

You seem like a careful and considered bettor, and they're not too many of those that bother to post, so good luck to you. Onwards and upwards for you, I'm sure. And don't let the (generally losing) detractors get to you.

:-)

the reason I am having a go at Kenilworth is because he ALWAYS pokes his nose in on other threads to bleat on about staking plans,value,discipline blah blah ** blah
Then he puts a thread up, loses a huge points based fortune then syas he was only paper trading ffs

Correct

Loss today of 3.15 points.
Bets 48
Staked 100 points
Balance - 18.68 points

That will do for me, I'm not putting
up with sh!ts from a couple of idiots.
This forum has gone.

Paper trading after the thread has started? And you have the audacity to have a go at other people?

Worked for three months, you post and it loses?

I'd be astounded if you made money on betfair.

GOODBYE KEN, ANOTHER DREAMER BITES THE DUST

:D :D :D :D

What a pity these threads get ruined by a moron.

SAY'S BETFAIRY WHO POSTS ON EVERY SINGLE THREAD I MAKE. KEN YOU CANNOT MAKE A PROFIT AS YOU HAVE PROVED SO GIVE IT UP

BETFAIRY THE MUG, I LONG FOR YOU TO TIP SOMETHING ON THE FORUM BUT IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN

ANOTHER DREAMER WHO DOESN'T BET YET IS HAPPY TO HAVE A GO AT PEOPLE THAT DO BET

WHAT GOES AROUND, COMES AROUND

:D :D :D

It's only 48 bets :|

So being down after that many is no problem at all , particulary as the selections are , on average , significantly odds against ( as in the short term a losing run is more likely).

keep going Ken ignore the idiots who expect instant profits and Loch Ness Monsters. I was very interested in this thread because his picks are based on value and wrong prices rather than his own personal views on the games. I wanted to see long-term if this was profitable and 48 bets is certainly not long-term.

people that paper trade and investigate new ideas/strategies are intelligent/creative people. Folk that waste money chasing rainbows without doing a thorough Betfair education have limited knowledge and little imagination.

ffs. the idiots chasing off another good poster :-(

To the intellectual giants who feel that I am an idiot please consider the following:

1) In both threads by Ken he did not open up with an explanation that this was a paper exercise.

2) He posted the fact that this was an exercise after there was a negative return.

3) He is always very quick to have a go at anyone that he deems to be aftertiming.

4) He has a terrible attitude to other posters. He is of the opinion that he is always correct and that anybody that has a different view on betting is either wrong or an idiot. The patronising manner with which he makes his thoughts known is offensive.

Whenever I have made postings, which by the way I do try to make in a helpful manner to other forum users most of the time the cr*p that I get back from Ken is ridiculous. At least my research is done prior to my posting.

Hope this clarifies my situation regarding this odious person.

he may be odious but he's well worth reading

way he conducts his thread, makes it easy to follow for readers is a credit to kenilworth. just going through patch of bad results at moment.

Dave Edwards-you had the audacity to have a go at me the other night for stating the exact same things about u want some-ganging up as you called it.

Why is it ok for you and u want some to have a go at others but not take it back.

This forum has gone completely with idiots like you and u want some (who incidentally will never have any because he in his own words cannot find his best market to bet on-yet is starting a tipping website).

Good luck and good bye i for one will never post on betfair forums again.

fouraces, my response to Kenilworth is as a direct result of the way that he has been with me.

I agree that people shouldn't gang up on anyone, which was why I said what I did the other evening. I'm not ganging up on Kenilworth. I am stating my thoughts about him and the way he has been with me. If he had taken a more considerate tone in his postings to me then I wouldn't have said what I have done here.

Hope this helps.

U Want Some why are you setting up a tipping site? The only people that create tipping sites are losing punters.....(the vast majority anyhow)

why would you want the pressure of finding winners and posting for your customers if you were making a tax free income already? Why not just increase stakes/compound bank to cover the X amount of subscriber's money. People that subscribe to 98% of tipster services need to ask; why are these people giving you their service? The answer is simple, it's because they cannot make it pay themselves, so need your £20 a month to feed their gambling habit.

£45 a month, get it right.

New thread concentrating on fixed prices on the four English leagues. All bets at match odds, let's see how it goes. Staking between 1 and 3 points depending on prices.

===================================================


Dave Edwards - you queried what criteria K had re his/her staking.................I think it was what he / she posted at start of thread!

I appreciate that K annoys you and others on the way he/she is a bit "patronising" .........NEVER apologises for making a wrong post........................etc etc HE /ssssssher also has annoyed me toooooooo..........


However, he/she is experimenting on "strategies".........which I have no idea what or why he/she chooses such strategies.....and with such "experiments" there is a chance they don't work long or short term.............................. AS IT IS FOOTBALL RELATED, THEN WITH EXPERIMENTS IT MIGHT NOT WORK OUT!. Initially it did ....recently it has not !


All I can say about that is that with HORSE RACING there are certain periods in a year when a strategy works at high level......then at other periods it does not , for reasons that are to do with what happens at certain points in season.


K may well recently been losing with the way he/she selects bets.......but that is not to say he/she may not be winning eventually with the way he/she selects bets.......

I understand why certain posters have been "aggressive" with the way K has posted to their threads.. but I am interested to see how he/she fares with what they are doing.....................and it is a pity that K did not respond to , I thought , a genuine query re STAKING by Mr Edwards........................................but unfortunately K you did not.........just like you never responded to Scotbet by making a simple apology for posting something which was in accurate................................. just appears not to be in your nature to admit you have posted something which is not correct!

I personally believe you are pretty poor on football knowledge............................however, as you rarely express an opinion on what might happen.....and tend to go by spurious stats .....and spurious market odds etc, then my opinion on you is biased ( probably)......you won't give a monkeys what I think anyway , so what is new !!!!!!

The obsession re "after-timing" I think irks many .....as you basically don't give anybody the benefit of doubt.............................

However, you can do what you want , within rules of BF, and I hope you basically IGNORE people like me and some others and do what you want to do....as some people might be interested in what you are trying out!

GL with bets

m u g

Interesting to note that those who bemoan the fact that this forum has 'gone' are partly responsible themselves for its demise with their higher than mighty posts on other people's well meaning threads. This forum 'went' a long time ago.

would like to see kenilworth post his bets for an entire season. i suspect he'll be about 50-60pts down come may, because as far as i can tell he has no edge, even if he were taking bf prices. i'd be delighted to be proved wrong though.

fwiw, i don't think these kind of threads aren't particularly interesting. people who price football games up without knowing anything much about the teams they're betting on are ten a penny these days. 'my spreadsheet says x team are too big'. fascinating. some may have a smallish edge, no more than 5%, but you need a powerful model to make it pay. four figure stakes and a huge churn of bets are the only way you will make any kind of serious money without putting the work in.

the alternative to the computermen are guys like this.

http://ubet2win.blogspot.com/

proper research and analysis gives you to a proper edge. even if he probably relies on contacts to give him what he needs. there's only so many leagues a person can cover on their own.

This is what lets KEN down ......big time - starts a thread , loses , gets abuse ( still wrongly IMO )
and stops posting ( some would see this as a huff ...then take a peek at a comment on another thread this morning ...below .........truly incredible stuff ....if you ask me


..................................................................
.....scotbet 01 Dec 13:26



Yes , I agree 100% with the other 2 ..keep it going
although I wouldn't blame you for stopping it ..because is it worth the hassle ?
far too many folk on these forums seem quite preapred to stick in the knife ...when people are losing
I don't see things (from a betting perspective ) with Ken ...me for me thats what the forum should be about ..views
but coming on**ging people ...cause they are losing ...is so wrong



...........................................................................................
kenilworth 01 Dec 22:00

Loss today of 3.15 points.
Bets 48
Staked 100 points
Balance - 18.68 points

That will do for me, I'm not putting
up with sh!ts from a couple of idiots.
This forum has gone.
.......................................................................................



kenilworth 31 Dec 08:55



then Kenilworths ...contribution can only be described as strange ...why do that ken ?

About the drinking ? Read it on hear a couple of years ago by someone. Not true ? If that's the case, then I apologise. Regards stalking, you accuse people (selecta ?) of that when they post comments, questions etc, that don't suit you. You blow hot and cold and then when things go wrong you skulk away. If you can't stand the heat in the kitchen just stay out, but maybe that's what you seem to be doing. GL.