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waawah
22 Oct 09 10:36
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Date Joined: 29 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 473 | Blogger: waawah's blog
Start with £25 stake and collectively, within the forum pick 10 consecutive evens ( or there about ) bets, doubling your stake each time.

A few thoughts today would be:

Benfica at home to Everton @ 2.0

Over 2.5 Celtic/Hamburg @ 1.9

Over 2.5 Shakthar Donetsk/Toulouse @ 1.8

High Importance 2pm Brighton @ 2.0

Any views or recommendations are always welcome

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Replies: 362
By:
Daveyboymoyes
When: 22 Oct 09 10:48
Best to try this with 5 banks i think ;)
By:
noukari
When: 22 Oct 09 10:55
the psychological torment of the last 2/3 bets would break most people - good luck
By:
waawah
When: 22 Oct 09 10:58
Granted.....it probably won't happen at the first attempt, but i'm sure we've all had decent streaks before. If we can help eachother with the selections, theres no reason we can't take it for big dough.

Any thoughts on the above selections?? I'm only looking at doing one...... best one in my opinion would be Benfica who are in decent nick at the moment against Everton who've got big players out and a tricky away game at Bolton at the weekend
By:
SHAPESHIFTER
When: 22 Oct 09 12:22
waawah 22 Oct 11:58
Granted.....it probably won't happen at the first attempt, but i'm sure we've all had decent streaks before. If we can help eachother with the selections, theres no reason we can't take it for big dough.


waawah, I have often thought the same thing. Was part of a circle that, staking aside, had 10 of us who had the objective of 100 bets in a row.

First time made it to the 30's (each punter had made 3 in just over a month). Second time the 60's. Third time made it over about 14 weeks (re: some of the "team" would take 2 to 3 days to make a selection or wait for Sunday NFL).

The big factor that made it "pressure free"; there was no building bank. Chosing roughly a bet a week (once the person in front of you had put theres on the table, you could put up yours).

My gut is the betfair forum can't do it since I find that people want things to move along "quickly" (blame the internet).
By:
waawah
When: 22 Oct 09 12:41
Cheers for the response Shapeshifter, that sounds quality. I'd be into trying to get something like that started. What did it return?

Theres loads of decent bets around evens knocking about.

One market is the both teams to score. In the premiership last weekend 8 of 10 fixtures had goals from both sides. The Championship is the same aswell....goals everywhere.

I really don't think it's impossible to hit a 10 bet winning streak
By:
yazza101
When: 22 Oct 09 16:25
this sounds like a good idea, people could help each other out and pick like one even shot a day or something. Also thought of another thing, if we got 512 people you could do that old system/derren brown thing, half of them pick one evens while the others opposite, like both even odds on tennis or one could be backing while others laying. Only one person would make it to £25k though.
By:
SHAPESHIFTER
When: 22 Oct 09 16:46
The odds ranged from 3/10 to about 5/4 on the whole. Mainly baseball, NFL. There were only a couple of horse races and seem to remember 5/2. I would have to dig up the excel on disc.

The last stretch was the summer of 2007 finishing in October.

Pay off for me was not compounding and were flutters but it did add up.

I know as the numbers went up, the odds got shallower as people looked for "certainties" so they weren't the ones to break the chain.

10 betfairians / 5 bets each = 50 bets.

But, again, would people have the patience to "stand in line"? The internet makes people chase bets all over the place.
By:
I.quit.my.job
When: 22 Oct 09 17:02
good idea, get ten people signed up then and lets go for it.............they would all have to be serious......may I suggest banking half after three, it means we would have to hit a longer streak, but at least we'd be banking some profits along the way...........have an odds range of 1.5-2.5............It would sort out the top tipsters from the trash too.........who's going to start?

ten people sign in.......take it in turns to post a bet..........only after the person in front's bet has been posted, may you post your selection

odds range 1.5-2.5 bet/lay

banking half the profit after three bets (although it's your money if you want to try for more)

first bet: £25 (again, it's your money start with £2 or £200 if you like)

1. I.quit.my.job
2. waawah ???
3. shapeshifter ????
4. yazza ?????

sign in, we want ten people........when we have ten confirmed, we can start.......Waawah it's your thread - you take control

don't just post a bet for the sake of it, it must be your strongest possible selection.............even if it means waiting 3 days............we need ten people who visit the forum regularly

if you post two consecutive losers - you're fired! and have to sit on the subs bench until someone else posts two losers

p.s. I don't want the pressure of going first :)
By:
sevey
When: 22 Oct 09 17:23
i /quit great idea but i do not know how to cut & paste
reff/numbers and all that jazz
By:
Tony Broke
When: 22 Oct 09 19:01
i got nine right not too long ago on another thread..the £10 to £10 000 one...but tbh at least three of the selections were due to good fortune last min goal etc...also to my utter disdain i didnt bet with real money..sods law and all that if it had been real id have been out after 1 attempt! ok thats a bit negative but u know what i mean..good idea to pool resources though
By:
yazza101
When: 22 Oct 09 19:07
we could even start a tester one with like £2, see how far it goes without too much pressure, should be around £2k with 10 bets.
By:
yazza101
When: 22 Oct 09 19:08
that's about 5 of us there, we could get 5 more and each person one after the other post a bet around evens, if we don't get 10 then just do 5 or something and we'll do 2 bets each
By:
The Southerner
When: 22 Oct 09 19:10
Staarting with £1 - 20 even money shots and your a millionaire!!!!!
By:
GranpaChook.
When: 22 Oct 09 19:31
I think it's a great idea. If you flip a coin a few hundred times you'll be amazed how many streaks of all heads or all tails crop up in a row.

You've inspired me to have a bit of fun and give it a go. I would join you lads but I'm hopeless at picking bets so I'd feel I'd let the side down somewhat! :)

I wish you luck though chaps.
By:
Sexual Harassment Panda
When: 22 Oct 09 20:07
I got to bet 7 once. Good times
By:
Kamikaze City
When: 22 Oct 09 21:31
i'm in, start Nov 1st.
By:
dlarssonf
When: 22 Oct 09 22:20
wanna start setting up your own private thread somewhere else or you will have the taxman after you
By:
kid
When: 22 Oct 09 22:38
Would love to join in,may learn disciplne.
By:
The Southerner
When: 22 Oct 09 22:41
dlarssonf 22 Oct 23:20


wanna start setting up your own private thread somewhere else or you will have the taxman after you

CLOWN
By:
dlarssonf
When: 22 Oct 09 22:47
very insightful southerner
By:
waawah
When: 23 Oct 09 09:01
Happy days....we've got some players!!!

In all fairness, you don't even need 10 participants.......5 with 2 bets each and you reach the target of 10. The turnaround would be a lot quicker as well.

My initial thoughts on it were to just help eachother with information, stats, opinions on whatever seemed the the best bet of the day/week then plough your winnings onto the next best bet, but i think it would be fun to have a sort of betfair/weakest link style tournament!!! Although the danger is people would just 'bank' after 1 winner as to not be shamed anne robinson style!!!

I'm happy to go with whatever, as nothing ventured nothing gained, and I genuinely believe that a target of 10 is do-able time and time again.

I think a list of serious candidates should be drawn up with a potential start time of next week ( 25/10/09 ) then let the fun commence!!

Started one last night with a tenner on Benfica which duly obliged........looking for leg 2 now!
By:
Daveyboymoyes
When: 23 Oct 09 09:02
Count me in. I have one for tomorrow i will post it up in the morning. Currently evens :)
By:
waawah
When: 23 Oct 09 09:15
Good stuff, theres 5 names then

1. I.quit.my.job
2. waawah
3. shapeshifter??
4. yazza ??
5. daveyboymoyes

Theres no reason another 5 can't set a separate one up or even follow the recommendations posted by the 5.

Just waiting for confirmation from shapeshifter and yazza then we can sort out details.

By the way, I thought all income gained from gambling was tax-free???
By:
dlarssonf
When: 23 Oct 09 10:19
wahwah it is tax free if you are betting for yourself, if for a syndicate its not tax free.

I was not being smart , just giving you a heads up thats all.

Obviously the Southerner thought he was great using bold to** on an internet forum

good luck with the challenge, i was only trying to help
By:
waawah
When: 23 Oct 09 10:37
Cheers for the advice, I think everyone will be betting individually i.e with their own money at their own stakes, however the syndicate part is based purely on streaks. If 5 people have a winning streak of 2 each ( easily attainable ) then collectively we hit the target of 10
By:
SHAPESHIFTER
When: 23 Oct 09 11:35
It seem the "plan of attack" / guidelines differ.

More than happy to contribute evens (or better) since it will become a thread that will force people to look for value. IQMJ....you rolled down to 1.50. To me, not necessary to post such bets since if someone is looking in the 1/2, 3/5 range, to me it is not something to "tip up". Evens or better means a strike rate above 60% or so will offer a return (with commission). 1.50 will not offer that.

It seems people as well are looking at different paces. So, as someone suggested, people can post evens or better and individuals can bet how they want (compound, percentage, etc).

But, as I said, do people (a) have the patience to find the plays rather than run to the next cue and (b) can people focus on their "specialties" rather than trying to fill a quota and rush to a "golden egg"?

Stay tuned
By:
Sligo
When: 23 Oct 09 12:36
Great idea this. Good luck with it.

The streak I'm on at the moment I wouldn't post a selection other than for ye to lay it. :-(

Hope this is an epic thread in the good sense and I look forward to seeing selections and maybe reasoning behind it also.
By:
Northbouy
When: 23 Oct 09 13:08
I wish you all luck, but the reason why you can turn 1 dollar into 1024 by backing 10 even money shots, is because the odds of pulling it of is 1023/1.

If you have one person pick 10 bets, 5 people pick 2 each, or 10 people each picking 1 makes no difference. You are still dodging bullets.

Basically your staking plan in doubling up is silly. Why are you staking 1 dollar on the first bet, 2 on the next, 4 on the next and so on, if each bet has the same chance of each other of winning - 50%.
By:
DirtyCashMoney
When: 23 Oct 09 13:37
Morrigan, I'd assume that every single one of the people involved here understands your basic lecture in probability. They know that they are dodging bullets. That's the point.
By:
Northbouy
When: 23 Oct 09 13:39
Fair enough point, but some of them sound as though they expect to achieve it.
By:
chemical_spill
When: 23 Oct 09 13:58
damnit, i thought i had a statistical advantage by doubling my stake each time, now you tell me this isn't true?? I DO NOT WANT TO LIVE ANYMORE
By:
Northbouy
When: 23 Oct 09 14:05
thats okay, you won't be missed.
By:
will is my hero
When: 23 Oct 09 14:34
I don't think you can consider this a money making exercise, it's only a bit of fun with betting.
There's a similar article on this forum '£10K Betfair Betting Challenge'
They're all relativity the same idea - how far can you go.
The closer you get the more nervous you get.

The one in the above topic that the Freebetheaven site is doing seems pretty achievable though, if you read through it.

All fun and games.
By:
SHAPESHIFTER
When: 23 Oct 09 16:34
If you're basing all your betting around compounding 100%, then you will always hit disappointment.

Several posts say "you are dodging bullets". I can't speak for others but, no, when I place a bet, I don't look for "risky bets". I weigh them out and if they don't offer value and I feel confident that I have looked at the event closely, then I don't hit enter whether it be 4/6 or 10/1 or whatever.

Yes, I''ll take flutters but I value my hard earned too much to "risk it on a hunch" or place a bet that has the potential of me being hit by a "bullet".

But the one thing I have seen since venturing into betting more and more the past decade is with the internet came gamblers who click onwards looking for the next play. I'm finding more and more that putting more time into research pays off. Making notes on events pays off. Avoiding bets that have anomolies, question marks pays off. Watching events with the intention of looking for future bets pays off. Not betting on headlines pays off.

The value is there every day. It's a matter of having the focus to wait for the right moment to strike. Successful boxers to it. Successful poker players do it. Teams do it.

Enjoy the success. Learn from the losses.

It comes down to pacing yourself since, as I have said before, there is always another horse race.
By:
Sexual Harassment Panda
When: 23 Oct 09 17:26
I'll play :)
By:
Tony Broke
When: 24 Oct 09 00:12
prob no one will agree but i think ipswich are worth a try at the rice 2.72..due an away win and they wont get a better opportunity than plymouth will they? if they cant start winning at places like that they wont win anywhere else
By:
yazza101
When: 24 Oct 09 04:42
I'm ok with joining. Anybody can try it, no fear of getting it wrong because it's just a test/fun thing. Just need a list and when to start this. Man I need to sleep earlier, check this tomorrow. Unfortunately tony I have nothing on here just now, just start this whenever though and I'll try and deposit some on here if I can before pay day(Tuesday lol).
By:
Daveyboymoyes
When: 24 Oct 09 11:08
Liking Villa at 2.3
By:
waawah
When: 24 Oct 09 11:38
I think Ipswich are due a win, i wouldn't be surprised if it came today. Villa are also a decent shout, although their away form is not a patch on their home form.

I personally like Mainz at home to Freiburg @ 2.4

Mainz have not lost in eight fixtures at home this year beating Bayern Munich and Hoffenheim along the way.

Freiburg recently lost away to lowly Hannover 5-2, who had previously only won 1 all season.
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