Time To Get Back To Basics

I.quit.my.job 18 Nov 19:01
remember to go against the crowd............is everyone on Germany tonight for the wrong reasons? If so they have been overly bet and a value lay possibly.........

No Ballack, No Drogba..........looking at the poss line-ups, you have to say IC look stronger

thanks for the interview Shape, I hope you are not comparing The Grand Slam Of Darts to XFACTOR - how insulting :) you really should watch the greatest sportsman on the planet tonight at around 8.30 ITV4

Week 2 longest winning sequence: 5 (31/1)
Week 2 longest losing sequence: 4

I achieved a sequence of 6 winners in Week 1 (63/1) but it's get complicated as I redded out of one bet (Liverpool) and two bets were running at the same time.

Looking at the sequences makes accumulating bets and loss recovery plans a possibility. But 2 weeks is not a long enough assessment, wished I could fast-forward six months. Why didn't anyone tell me to do this 8 months ago? Alot of wasted time and study this year, this Betfair Education had better be worth something in the end.

I hit winning and losing streaks like a sportsman hits form. I don't want to see long streaks, ideally I would hit 2-1 every day but of course it's not an ideal World we live in. After bet 7 on Week 2, I was at 5-2 (71%) I probably should have stopped for the week or reduced stakes as it's highly unlikely to get any better than this. If I make 18 bets in a week the 71% is going to drop rather than increase or stay constant, which in the end it did (50%). This is why I started the thread about the relevance of time and betting. I did set a target last week of stopping when a £100 profit or 3pts is reached but I never quite made it to this point. The bets table shows at one stage £100 was reached on Monfils but the Wales match was running at the same time.

Anyway onto tonight's XFACTOR, the Darts, it looks remarkably easy tonight which is not a good sign. Hopefully it's because I've watched all the games rather than the 'crowd' factor.

Tony 'The Silverback' Oshea v Mark 'Webby' Webster

I've opposed the Hairy One all week, it's time to lick my wounds and accept that the man is playing serious darts. He is a very heavy scorer, hits the T20 with consummate ease and has finished well this week which is the main area why I opposed him - he can be shaky on the doubles under pressure. O'Shea won all three of his group games and eased his way through what looked a tough group for him on paper, beating the likes of Lloyd and Osbourne. Webby had the easier group and is through after wins over VDV and Anastasia. He lost 5-0 to 'The Power' but his win over VDV was impressive. As O'Shea looks a cool cookie this week he should outscore and beat Webby tonight.

bet O'Shea @1.57

Kevin 'The Artist' Painter v Kevin 'The Karate Kid' Shepherd

Painter has been outstanding this week scoring as well as ever beating John Part and was unlucky to lose against Barnie but he had darts to win the match which he didn't take. He has a nice rhythm going which is important with his style. Shepherd has played as well as he can play IMO in getting through a tough group, beating Fitton and Maish to qualify. He needs to up his average to 100+ if he is to compete with Painter tonight which I just cannot see happening. Shepherd is also carrying a foot injury which doesn't help his chances. I know what your thinking why would a foot injury affect his darts game? but it affects his stance and he needs to be 100% right to win today. Again like Thornton last night, if a 1.3 can be a good thing then this is the time, kind of wished I'd saved the Thornton bet and put in with Painter tonight.

bet Painter @1.3 in double with O'Shea

Phil 'The Power' Taylor v Colin 'Jaws' Lloyd

I've backed Lloyd all week and he hasn't delivered the goods, wavering on the doubles under pressure. He is very lucky IMO to be through with only one win, it was a group where everyone else beat each other bar O'Shea who won all of his matches. He only just scraped through against Woods 5-4 who to me was one of the weakest players in the competition. Lloyd has only a 24% strike-rate for doubles hit so far and that shows where his weakness has been. He will need to take out EVERY double chance tonight versus the Greatest Sportsman on the planet, let alone every 1 in 4. H2H Taylor 26-3 Lloyd. Taylor comfortably tonight will cover the handicap.

bet Taylor -4.5 legs @1.54

**'Barnie' Barneveld v Merv 'The King' King

This game will be extremely close, too evenly matched opponents and their tournament average is virtually identical so far. Both will average around the 100 mark tonight so it could come down to who holds their nerve the best and hits the crucial doubles. Barnie come through his group rather fortunately losing to Part and should have lost to Painter had Painter took his chance. Barnie obviously beat the woman in his group but during his matches, the signs of frustration were there. He gets annoyed with himself for no apparent reason, is often changing his darts, when in reality he is playing perfectly fine. I think the Power has got inside his head, he just needs to relax, play his game and enjoy his darts. Merv cruised through his group winning his first two matches before taking his foot off the gas losing his last one to Fitton when it didn't matter. King is clinical and can take out some big finishes to match Barnie all the way. This could be 10-9 either way and should be a cracker. Barnie was overpriced @1.5 but the market has evened out a little more now, best price 1.62. That's still a tad short in my book and I'm taking King with the 2.5 start.

bet King +2.5 @1.7-1.8

Week 3 (Bank: £1087.80)
1. (a) bet £30 O'Shea @1.57 (v Webster) if he wins
1. (b) bet £46.24 Painter @1.3 (v Shepherd)

Week 3 (Bank: £1087.80)
1. (a) bet £30 O'Shea @1.57 (v Webster) if he wins W
1. (b) bet £46.24 Painter @1.3 (v Shepherd) W £29.42 (£29.42) :)

Phil Taylor's price -4.5 legs has completely gone (trading 1.42 from 1.53) - no bet now - cannot take that price. Got lucky in O'Shea game, he had a wobbler on his doubles but luckily so did Webster and O'Shea sneaked it 10-9. Taylor's price is in freefall......

The Power went into overdrive and took Lloyd out 10-4.........woop woop!

No bet in Barnie v King, it's too close to call even with the 2.5 headstart for King. I'm happy to leave this one out and enjoy what should be a cracker. What put me off is Barnie has the slightly better doubles hit percentage at 40% to Merv's 33%, plus Barnie has the advantage 12-4 in H2H. I'm tempted to switch to Barnie in truth outright, now his price has drifted out to a more backable 1.7. No bet, I hate the term but it's a 'no bet' match.

Tonight's Results
O'Shea 10-9 Webster
Painter 10-5 Shepherd
Taylor 10-4 Lloyd
Barneveld 10-6 King

Miami Dolphins 4-5 @Carolina Panthers 4-5

Thursday night games are tough on the bodies apparently and the short week should favour the home team Carolina. Miami have only won once on the road too which helps the selection which is the Panthers -3.5 @2.02. Big injury blow for Miami with their RB Ronnie Brown out of this game and possibly the season. The running game has been Miami's strength this season so he will be a major loss. The run is also the Panther's strength (3rd best in the NFL) and in De Angelo Williams they have one of the most powerful, effective RBs in the NFL right now. Jake Delhomme (QB) is throwing the ball alot better in recent games after a slow start (2nd in interceptions in NFL). He threw 2 TD last week in their win over the Falcons and is pick-free in the last three games which is encouraging. Miami meanwhile needed a last ditch FG to see off Tampa. Carolina to run all over Miami and cover the spread.

2. bet £30 Carolina -3.5 @2.02

Week 3 (Bank: £1087.80)
1. (a) bet £30 O'Shea @1.57 (v Webster) if he wins W
1. (b) bet £46.24 Painter @1.3 (v Shepherd) W £29.42 (£29.42) :)

2. bet £30 Carolina -3.5 @2.02 L -£30 (-£0.68) :(

3. (a) bet £30 R.Thornton @1.29 (v Young) when he wins
3. (b) bet £38.26 G.Anderson @1.29 (v Waites)

no point messing about tonight, 2 simple victories in the darts gives me a 4/6 double

Thornton v Young
3 dart tournament average: 95.32, 89.76
doubles checkout: 41%, 32%

Young needs to up that average by ten to win today which I don't think he is capable of doing, Thornton has been in tremendous form

Whitlock v Beaton
3 dart average: 99.08, 88.21
doubles: 58%, 39%

Whitlock needs to play to the same standard as he has been this week, if he does he puts Beaton under pressure and wins

Wade v Jenkins
3 dart average: 97.03, 93.98
doubles: 45%, 42%

Wade has the slight edge in the tournament stats so far but both players can hit even higher averages and this should be a cracker. Wouldn't like to pick a winner, so I won't and I'l just enjoy the match. I hope 'The Bull' Terry Jenkins takes it as he is one of my faves but Wade has looked near to his best in his last two matches.

Anderson v Waites
3 dart average: 98.51, 91.8
doubles: 47%, 30%

Waites has played his best darts to get through, Anderson has cruised through. Waites needs to improve even more to win tonight which like the first match I don't think he is capable, Anderson takes this comfortably for me.

I was on a bad QB and team last night in the Carolina Panthers. I have come to the conclusion that three bets a day is too many. Even though I done my research and picked out some good reasons to back the Panthers, do I really want to risk a good bet on the darts with a bet on a sport I know little about? Instead of trying to hit a 12-6 or an 11-7 strike-rate in bets per week, wouldn't it make alot more sense to hit a 3-0 or 5-2 record for the week in bets I am 100% about. I need to compile some sort of checklist for my selections.

Week 3 (Bank: £1087.80)
1. (a) bet £30 O'Shea @1.57 (v Webster) if he wins W
1. (b) bet £46.24 Painter @1.3 (v Shepherd) W £29.42 (£29.42)

2. bet £30 Carolina -3.5 @2.02 L -£30 (-£0.68)

3. (a) bet £30 R.Thornton @1.29 (v Young) W
3. (b) bet £38.26 G.Anderson @1.29 (v Waites) L -£30 (-£30.68)

Results
R.Thornton 10-9 D.Young
S.Whitlock 10-1 S.Beaton
T.Jenkins 10-9 J.Wade
S.Waites 10-9 G.Anderson

An amazing night of darts, incredible standard. Thornton was very lucky to come through against Young, Thornton went 7-2 up and was 1.01 on BF but he then couldn't hit a double in a double shop and scraped through. Stats didn't lie in Whitlock game, he played superb taking out his doubles in one shot, walked all over Beaton 10-1. Tezza Jenkins and James Wade was an incredible standard, nip and tuck all the way, with Jenks taking out a big finish on the bull in the deciding leg. Scott Waites played the game of his life, averaged just under 100 to edge a magnificent Anderson 10-9. Anderson averaged over 100, hit 11 180s and still lost! I'm wondering how and I'm sure he his but Waites was incredible, was behind Anderson all the way until the vital last leg where he kept his nerve to take it. I won't be opposing Waites again in a hurry that's for sure.

4. (a) bet £24 Aston Villa @5/4 (@Burnley)
4. (b) bet £6 AV ht @3

Villa had a good victory LTO beating Bolton 5-1 so confidence is high. Burnley although you cannot argue with the home form it will eventually come to an end IMO. If Villa want to be genuine Top4 contenders then they have to go to the likes of Burnley and get 3 points. Wigan beat Burnley 3-1 at Turf Moor recently, so I see no reason why an in-form AV cannot do the same. Villa are solid at the back and have Agbonlahor in great goalscoring form. They have Petrov and Collins coming back into their team to make them stronger.

I would have expected AV to be around the 11/10 mark here, so 5/4 is generous.....I like AV ht @3 too to get the job done early like LTO.......Villa need a win away from home and Martin O'Neill will have them well-organised and well-prepared for this game. The Burnley ground/atmosphere is new at the moment for alot of the Premiership sides and that's why they've caught fancied teams out. They won't catch O'Neill out - he's seen it all before.

5. (a) bet £25 Arsenal @1.73 (@Sunderland)
5. (b) bet £5 Arsenal ht @2.32

All the headlines have been about the Arsenal's injury problems most noteworthy the Van Persie injury, but it's Sunderland who are hardest hit today.

Kenwyne Jones and Michael Turner are suspended, left-back George McCartney is missing as is their goalkeeper Craig gordon who broke his arm v Tottenham. But the biggest loss is Lee Cattermole, Sunderlands's midfield catalyst, since he was stretchered off against Liverpool, Sunderland haven't looked the same team that started the season so well, losing two and drawing the other since he's been missing. So you could say Sunderland have their spine missing today with their Goalkeeper, best defender (Turner), midfield driving force in Cattermole and the big guy upfront Jones.

Arsenal were looking unstoppable before the International break with convincing wins over Tottenham and Wolves away. Chelsea beat Sunderland here earlier in the season 3-1 and I see no reason why Arsenal cannot do the same at better odds.

RAMSEY is the key tomorrow after his performance for Wales last weekend, hopefully he starts. I pencilled this team down and is still very strong, the Gunners have so much depth in the midfield.

Almunia
Sagna
Gallas
Vermaelan
Silvestre
Song/Denilson
Fabregas
Ramsey
Nasri/Rosicky/Walcott
Arshavin
Eduardo

Negatives are obviously the injuries and Arshavin will be down after Russian defeat. Sunderland have a great record at home but that was with their stars playing. The team listed above can keep the good form up and take care of The Wearsiders.......ARSENAL @1.73.......yes please!

6. (a) lay £26.31 Chelsea ht @1.57 (v Wolves)
6. (b) bet £11 Under 2.5 Goals @2.54
6. (c) bet £4 Chelsea 3-0 @8

Chelsea are missing Drogba, Lampard, Ballack, Deco, Bosingwa and possibly Terry, that's 19 of the 29 goals this season between them. Only 27% of Chelsea's goals have come in the 1st half. 2 out of 6 home games for Chelsea have been 3-0 victories.

I think with all the injuries it will upset the Chelsea balance and they could struggle early on to gel together. Wolves will not make it easy for them and will probably park the bus and Chelsea could struggle to break them down. If Wolves can stay disciplined and shut-out Chelsea early on I think my bets are good value with the 3-0 as cover.

Saturday's Grand Slam Of Darts

13:15 Simon Whitlock (1.67) Scott Waites (2.38)
15:15 Terry Jenkins (1.5) Robert Thornton (3)
19:15 [b**Van Barneveld[/b] (1.44) Kevin Painter (3.25)
21:15 Phil Taylor (1.06) Tony OShea (10)

I'm amazed with the prices in the first match, this should be 5/6 the pair. Both players played superb last night it's so tough to call a winner. Whitlock came through 10-1 against Beaton so obviously had the easier match and will be fresher. But Waites played the game of his life to beat the 2nd fav for the tournie Gary Anderson 10-9. Anderson hit a 100+ average and hit 11 x 180s yet Waites still found a way of beating him. Top class standard last night all-round. Whitlock didn't give Beaton a sniff because he finished so clinically hitting every double early on with one dart. He will need to be as clinical today over the longer distance to justify being so short. Waites could be drained after his epic match but beating Anderson should fill him with loads of confidence and he can repeat the performance. Whitlock is also full of confidence this week and seems on form in his interviews, it's so close.........but 2.38 on Waites has to be taken

Tezza Jenkins also came through another epic against Wade - a top-class affair of high scoring and impressive check-outs. Thornton came through another 10-9 thriller but this was not a good standard. Thornton started off superbly to go 7-2 up and looked home and hosed, but he then got double trouble and let the American back in it. He must have finished the match with a doubles hit % of less than 15% it was that bad. If he does the same tomorrow v Jenkins he will get mullered. I was expecting 1.4 after the Thornton horror show last night, Terry has the edge on him H2H ..........1.5 is a gift from above

Barnie v Painter is a real heavyweight clash of the180 men. Expect loads of maximums and another tight affair. I think Barnie is the worthy favourite after his confidence-boosting win over King, but 1.44 is a little tight. Barnie beat Painter in the Group stage but Painter missed darts to win the match and let him off the hook really. This time over 31 legs, the longer distance will suit Barnie even more and he should win. I would have been all over Barnie if the price was 1.6, 1.44 I'l leave alone.

Taylor obviously will beat O'Shea - O'Shea has done well to get this far, I hope he plays well and gets at least 6 legs so it isn't too embarrassing for him.

7. bet £30 T.Jenkins @1.5 (v Thornton)

I hope he plays well and gets at least 6 legs so it isn't too embarrassing for him.



If he 2 more he could be mistaken for a spider and that would be really embarrassing.




But seriously, how do you do with darts punting? It is not something that I follow and I figure that I am break even on it but that probably means that I lose if I was to go back and look and my numbers.

** If he had 2 more

not too good so far - about 2 or 3 points down I think..............Waites beating Anderson was a real surprise but he deserved it...........Jenkins is a cert today for me but sticking to staking plan........this week was more of an experiment than anything else, to see if I can make 3 points profit on darts with little footie on...........3 points profit is looking unlikely now, be nice to break even like you :) Enjoy the darts though it's great entertainment and makes a change...........now I've done this tournament it should stand me in good stead for the World's next month, but I wouldn't count on it :)

I haven't had any luck with going for the value this week...............had some odds-ons go down and had 5 players touch 1.1 and go on to lose..........so you could say damn unlucky overall - I'm sure it's possible to make a profit over the year but only a small one..........unless you have 100k and just back Taylor every tournie :)

8. bet £30 Kauto Star @11/10 (2.55 Haydock)

is rated 17lbs higher than his nearest rival, has won this race twice in the past, only way he doesn't win today is if he's below par on his seasonal bow. Master Minded, another P.Nicholls hotpot got beat last week - but he had to give weight away and that isn't a worry as Nicholls has had plenty of other winners recently. Notre Pere (2nd fav) fell LTO at Punchestown, Madison Berlais and Imperial Commander might be unsuited by the going. 9 out of Kauto's 18 wins have been on soft or very soft ground. He unseated his rider in this race last year and this factor along with the testing conditions is the reason we can get such a nice price on Kauto today. 4/5 is a value lay, odds-against is a bet..... thankyou

Week 3 (Bank: £1087.80)
1. (a) bet £30 O'Shea @1.57 (v Webster) if he wins W
1. (b) bet £46.24 Painter @1.3 (v Shepherd) W £29.42 (£29.42) :)

2. bet £30 Carolina -3.5 @2.02 L -£30 (-£0.68) :(

3. (a) bet £30 R.Thornton @1.29 (v Young) W
3. (b) bet £38.26 G.Anderson @1.29 (v Waites) L -£30 (-£30.68) :(

4. (a) bet £24 Aston Villa @5/4 (@Burnley)
4. (b) bet £6 AV ht @3

5. (a) bet £25 Arsenal @1.73 (@Sunderland)
5. (b) bet £5 Arsenal ht @2.32

6. (a) lay £26.31 Chelsea ht @1.57 (v Wolves)
6. (b) bet £11 Under 2.5 Goals @2.54
6. (c) bet £4 Chelsea 3-0 @8

7. (a) bet £30 T.Jenkins @1.5 (v Thornton)

8. bet £30 Kauto Star @11/10 (2.55 Haydock)

5 bets in total today........there are so many good bets ......GL

IQMJ, I'm not saying you're wrong about the Burnley/Aston Villa game, but...

Villa's away form is not very impressive with only a +2 GD and a LDDLWW 33% record. Besides their first away game to Liverpool, they've only beaten Birmingham.

Burnley have won 83% of their home games, the fourth best in the league (WLWWWW), and have a +5 GD. They have kept three clean sheets in the six games.

On the HT market, Villa have only won 1 out of 6 when away. Burnley have a 50% home HT win record.

The whole game is a no bet for me. Good luck whatever you decide though.

i quit have u got a new job?

no Freddie no luck in that department either

Ebasson you were right, the stats didn't lie - I keep opposing Burnley, it's time to accept what they are doing

Week 3 (Bank: £1087.80)
1. (a) bet £30 O'Shea @1.57 (v Webster) if he wins W
1. (b) bet £46.24 Painter @1.3 (v Shepherd) W £29.42 (£29.42) :)

2. bet £30 Carolina -3.5 @2.02 L -£30 (-£0.68) :(

3. (a) bet £30 R.Thornton @1.29 (v Young) W
3. (b) bet £38.26 G.Anderson @1.29 (v Waites) L -£30 (-£30.68) :(

4. (a) bet £24 Aston Villa @5/4 (@Burnley) L
4. (b) bet £6 AV ht @3 L -£30 (-£60.68) :(

5. (a) bet £25 Arsenal @1.73 (@Sunderland) L
5. (b) bet £5 Arsenal ht @2.32 L -£30 (-£90.68) :(

6. (a) lay £26.31 Chelsea ht @1.57 (v Wolves) L
6. (b) bet £11 Under 2.5 Goals @2.54 L
6. (c) bet £4 Chelsea 3-0 @8 L -£30 (-£120.68) :(

7. (a) bet £30 T.Jenkins @1.5 (v Thornton) W £15 (-£105.68) :)

8. bet £30 Kauto Star @11/10 (2.55 Haydock) W £33 (-£72.68) :)

9. bet £30 Rooney To Score @EVS (MU v Eve)

Rooney to score against his former team. United have little goalscoring threat from midfield this season since the departure of Ronaldo so if United are to win today I feel he is the most likely scorer and at a best-priced EVS is fair.

Chelsea theory didn't pay off and Arsenal lacked the same conviction in their play due to the absence of RVP and the damn international break. Kauto won but needed a photo and Tezza won easy peasy.

9. bet £30 Rooney To Score @EVS (MU v Eve) L -£30 (-£102.68) :(

ffs it's tough making even 3pts profit through betting! I was saying United don't score many from midfield and Fletcher and Carrick score the goals (probably average 5 between them a season). Rooney substituted to rub it in even more. RUBBISH day

10. (a) bet £25 My Arch (place) @3.5 (3.10 Muss)
10. (b) bet £5 My Arch @10.5

Main bet is My Arch to be placed, taking a chance on chase debut, but does look on a good mark after good hurdling form

9. bet £30 Rooney To Score @EVS (MU v Eve) L -£30 (-£102.68) :(

10. (a) bet £25 My Arch (place) @3.5 (3.10 Muss) W £59.37
10. (b) bet £5 My Arch @10.5 W £45.12 Total won on bet: £104.49 (£1.81) :)

11. bet £30 Under 2.5 Goals @1.82 (Espanyol v Getafe)

Getafe have lost their last 4 away. Both in mid-table Espanyol (9th) and Getafe (12th). 8 out of 10 meetings between these two have been unders. Getafe have not drawn a league game so far this season. Only 1 in last 6 Espanyol games has produced over 2.5 goals. Gone with the stats was looking at Espanyol win originally but unders looks very likely.

11. bet £30 Under 2.5 Goals @1.82 (Espanyol v Getafe) W £23.37 (£25.18) :)

Tune in to see Phil 'The Power' Taylor claim his third consecutive Grand Slam at 7.30pm ITV4. He plays Scott Waites who has been tremendous this week and thoroughly deserves his spot in the final. Well done to all dream team players who have Jermaine Defoe in their team, what happened to Wigan? :D

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)@Chicago Bears (4-5)
Both teams come into the game on a 2-game losing streak. Philly losing tight games to Dallas and in San Diego. Bears were hammered at home to the Cards and were dreadful on offense last week losing 10-6 in San Francisco. 49ers were there for the taking but Cutler threw 5 interceptions and they just could not get anything going on O. After watching that awful game I noted to take on both teams next time out. 49ers have just lost in Green Bay 30-24 so it's time to take on the Bears again today. Although that 9ers score v Packers is more than respectable to be fair.

With no teams having a running game of any note, it will be a battle of the QBs tonight. Cutler has the talent to be a great and has played well at home this season, but he has lacked the support from his team-mates so far. Eagles are rated 9th on pass offense in NFL and Bears 10th so that tells you how close this game should be. On defending the pass, Eagles are 9th and Bears 8th which makes it even more interesting.

I think Jay Cutler and the Bears are lacking confidence at the moment, so the slight edge goes to the Eagles tonight. Cutler's 76.0 QB rating compared with Donovan McNabb's rating of 95.1 supports the bet. McNabb has threw less interceptions this season than Cutler did last last week!

bet Eagles @1.62 boy les

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)@Chicago Bears (4-5)
Both teams come into the game on a 2-game losing streak. Philly losing tight games to Dallas and in San Diego. Bears were hammered at home to the Cards and were dreadful on offense last week losing 10-6 in San Francisco. 49ers were there for the taking but Cutler threw 5 interceptions and they just could not get anything going on O. After watching that awful game I noted to take on both teams next time out. 49ers have just lost in Green Bay 30-24 so it's time to take on the Bears again today. Although that 9ers score v Packers is more than respectable to be fair.

With no teams having a running game of any note, it will be a battle of the QBs tonight. Cutler has the talent to be a great and has played well at home this season, but he has lacked the support from his team-mates so far. Eagles are rated 9th on pass offense in NFL and Bears 10th so that tells you how close this game should be. On defending the pass, Eagles are 9th and Bears 8th which makes it even more interesting.

I think Jay Cutler and the Bears are lacking confidence at the moment, so the slight edge goes to the Eagles tonight. Cutler's 76.0 QB rating compared with Donovan McNabb's rating of 95.1 supports the bet. McNabb has threw less interceptions this season than Cutler did last last week!

bet Eagles @1.62 boy les

12. bet £30 Philadelphia Eagles @1.62 (@Bears)

At least I'm on a play-off contender team tonight and one of the league's top QBs, after watching the Bears last week I have to take them on again. I hope Philly play better than the abysmal Panthers Thursday night.

Week 3 (Bank: £1087.80)
1. (a) bet £30 O'Shea @1.57 (v Webster) if he wins W
1. (b) bet £46.24 Painter @1.3 (v Shepherd) W £29.42 (£29.42) :)

2. bet £30 Carolina -3.5 @2.02 L -£30 (-£0.68) :(

3. (a) bet £30 R.Thornton @1.29 (v Young) W
3. (b) bet £38.26 G.Anderson @1.29 (v Waites) L -£30 (-£30.68) :(

4. (a) bet £24 Aston Villa @5/4 (@Burnley) L
4. (b) bet £6 AV ht @3 L -£30 (-£60.68) :(

5. (a) bet £25 Arsenal @1.73 (@Sunderland) L
5. (b) bet £5 Arsenal ht @2.32 L -£30 (-£90.68) :(

6. (a) lay £26.31 Chelsea ht @1.57 (v Wolves) L
6. (b) bet £11 Under 2.5 Goals @2.54 L
6. (c) bet £4 Chelsea 3-0 @8 L -£30 (-£120.68) :(

7. (a) bet £30 T.Jenkins @1.5 (v Thornton) W £15 (-£105.68) :)

8. bet £30 Kauto Star @11/10 (2.55 Haydock) W £33 (-£72.68) :)

9. bet £30 Rooney To Score @EVS (MU v Eve) L -£30 (-£102.68) :(

10. (a) bet £25 My Arch (place) @3.5 (3.10 Muss) W £59.37
10. (b) bet £5 My Arch @10.5 W £45.12 Total won on bet: £104.49 (£1.81) :)

11. bet £30 Under 2.5 Goals @1.82 (Espanyol v Getafe) W £23.37 (£25.18) :)

12. bet £30 Philadelphia Eagles @1.62 (@Bears) W £18.60 (£43.78) :)

Nice hat-trick yesterday to bring us into profit this week......It was a bonus to see My Arch winning as main part of the bet was to be placed.........Espanyol score was 0-2 (the goals coming in the last few minutes) and the Eagles won 24-20 to round off a good day

I'm not a big fan of football ratings and stats, but after yesterday's Spanish game success, let's try another. I suppose it's just like going through a horse race in terms of form.

Romanian League Monday 18:30 KO: FCU Poli Timisoara (6th) v D Bucharest (7th)

both teams with 22 points after 13 games played (3 points behind the leader).

FCU (no win in last three) host Dinamo who they have never beat in 14 league games.

Dinamo come into the game with 2 wins and 2 draws in last four.

19 of 26 (73%) games involving these two this season have been unders

but when you look at the H2H, the majority of games have been overs (57%) In this fixture = 75% overs (FCU home)

Dinamo have beaten FCU convincingly the last two times they have met (0-3 in this fixture last season)

Laying FCU at home shows a profit this season

Both of these teams are competing in the Europa League this season

FCU have drawn 7 of 13 games this season (53%)

FCU: Bourceanu (suspended), Mansour and Cisovsky (injured) plus there are a number of their players suffering with flu. Bit of unrest on the terraces - SABAU OUT! is the cry from their website forum. The fans are obviously not happy with their Manager and team performances so far.

lay FCU @2.36 or bet under 2.5 goals @1.75

13. lay £22 FCU @2.36 (v D.Bucharest)

Preston (12th) Newcastle (2nd)

Newcastle come into the game with 3 consecutive wins including a 0-1 win @Sheff Utd. Preston meanwhile have no wins in last three, drawing 2 and losing 2-0 away @Watford LTO. Preston are going through a bit of a slump dropping to 12th in the League after a good start where they contested the lead for much of the early season. They have no wins in the last four at home and they will struggle to improve that record tonight against the high-flying Geordies.

Newcastle have the best defensive record in the division and 56% of their games have been unders. Backing them to win every game this season returns a good profit and laying Preston returns a profit. I'm tempted to bet unders in this game as Newcastle are away, but Preston games usually produce goals, they average 56% over 2.5 and a very high 94% over 1.5. Preston have not won at home since beating Coventry on 19 September so we'l go the lay Preston route, but they look too high @3.9 to lay on here (3.4 best price on oddschecker). Newcastle @2.25 could be an option but no bet for me.

Djokovic v Davydenko (Barclays ATP World Tour Finals London)

The bet here is the match to go to three sets @2.5 (Sporting) or dutch Djoko 2-1/Davydenko 2-1 correct scores. H2H it's 2-2 (3 of the games going to three sets). Davydenko winning the latest match in the semi-finals of Shanghai before going on to win the tournament. Djokovic (1.45 fav) has just won the recent tournie in Paris last weekend, so he could be still be feeling the effects from that (fitness wise). In this tournament where it's only the top8 players competing, all matches will be close with both matches yesterday going the distance.

14. bet £30 Total 3 sets (Djokovic v Davydenko) @2.5 (Sporting)

13. lay £22 FCU @2.36 (v D.Bucharest) L £29.92 (£13.86) :(

14. bet £30 Total 3 sets (Djokovic v Davydenko) @2.5 (Sporting) W £45 (£58.86) :)

FCU won 2-0, but it was closer than the scoreline suggest, the opening goal not coming until 66mins and the 2nd coming in the final few mins when DB were pressing for a goal. The Unders would have worked in this game so once again I picked the wrong option! Newcastle also won 1-0 so another bet left out, I'm not so sure if backing Newc would have been a good play, but Unders certainly would .... I strongly fancied Unders in both games but didn't play either........I keep leaving winning bets out, so my selection process must be wrong... something I'l have to think about ......... Djoko v Davy is currently in the third set......so barring a retirement, the bets a winner ... bringing me to virtually 2pts profit for the week so far

A good post by Dave Edwards on another thread talking about the psychology of betting. I need to stop thinking of these bets as gambling and more like investments. There will be winning and losing investments, but as long as the research is good and detailed, the profit will take care of itself.

Tue Night Conference: Barrow (17th) v Grays (22nd)

Barrow are coming into tonight's game against fellow strugglers Grays with 2 wins, 2 draws and a narrow 1-0 defeat away to top of the league Oxford LTO. Grays on the other hand come into the game with 4 losses and 1 draw which came in the reverse fixture 3-3 @Grays on Oct 31st. In those 4 consecutive losses, Grays have only scored 2 goals and let in 12.

Both teams have only managed 20 goals in 20 games so far so expect a low-scoring game although it was 3-3 last time they met. H2H in the 3 times they have met, there have been 2 draws and a narrow 2-1 win for Grays at home last season.

You have to go back to September for Grays last victory in the League and they have yet to win away from home this season. Barrow are 10 points ahead of Grays in the table and they should stretch that margin tonight with a win.

Backing both of these teams to draw every game returns a profit this season, but I cannot see beyond a Barrow victory here looking at Grays dreadful current form. They have lost 5 out of the last 6 and have took some real pastings, they must be low on confidence. Barrow are doing well, good performance at Oxford LTO and have reached the 2nd round of the FA Cup.

It's a long drive from Essex to a cold and wet Cumbria on a Tuesday night too which also goes against Grays' chances. Barrow welcome back forward Jon Shaw (5 goals) into contention after he missed the defeat @Oxford to bolster tonight's attack.

15. bet £30 Barrow @1.75 BWIN

Barrow AFC Website;
We are growing year on year and yes, we've got plans for the future and we'll talk about more of that at the AGM, but this last 5 years has been about stabilisation and development within the current structure. This has been achieved and achieved very, very well and we have to be strong to not to get carried away by letting the short term success effect the long term future of the club. Conference Survival is crucial, and is the target again this season.

The decision to go part full time was to ensure we had the best chance of survival at this level and for me what we are seeing now are the benefits of this decision. Many may not know but, this training structure only started two weeks prior to the start of the season in the last week of July, so really the benefits have only been really showing in the past 5 or 6 weeks, and it's no coincidence that's we've gone now 10 games unbeaten. (written before the Oxford defeat)

Go Barrow :D

Tue Night League One: Charlton (2nd) v Bristol Rovers (7th)

71% of Bristol Rovers games have been OVERS. Charlton are 53%

the last 9 Rovers games have been OVERS

Charlton's last home game was a 5-1 win over MK

after 5 consecutive defeats in the League, Rovers come into the game on the back of two wins

Rovers have only drew 1 in 17 league games this season which gives you an idea of their attacking style

Charlton have key centre-half Sam Sodje out through suspension and their first-choice goalkeeper is still out, so the loanee continues in goal

Rover's are unable to include their on-loan striker Chris Dickson against his parent club which is a blow for the bet as Manager Paul Trollope is thinking of going into the game with 5 midfielders

But the price is massive value and the key to winning the bet is Charlton scoring 1st and pref early, Rovers will have to attack then which should bring in the OVERS

Rovers 8 away games have produced 7 OVERS......Charlton 5-1 LTO at home......OVERS has to be taken at virtually EVEN money

14. bet £30 Over 2.5 Goals @1.97 (Charlton v Bristol Rovers)

bet 16 ^ not 14

Tue Night League One: Colchester (4th) v Stockport (21st)

Stockport come into the game with 5 consecutive defeats. Colchester with only one loss in 12 have drew the last two games and will be looking to get back on the winning trail against lowly Stockport. In the last eight H2H its 7/8 victories for Colchester and 1 draw. Backing Colchester to win this season returns a profit (particularly at home) and laying Stockport returns a profit too. Stockport are missing 2 forwards through injury tonight, but top scorer Carl Baker could be ready to return after illness. They will be desperate to stop the rot and will look to defend which could bring in the UNDERS if they shut-out Colchester early doors. I see know reason why Colchester cannot claim the win tonight though, they couldn't have picked a better opportunity to get back to winning ways. The travel factor comes into play again in this fixture (9 hr round trip). The price on a home victory is quite generous on here IMO.

17. bet £30 Colchester @1.56 (v Stockport)

Week 3 (Bank: £1087.80)
1. (a) bet £30 O'Shea @1.57 (v Webster) if he wins W
1. (b) bet £46.24 Painter @1.3 (v Shepherd) W £29.42 (£29.42) :)

2. bet £30 Carolina -3.5 @2.02 L -£30 (-£0.68) :(

3. (a) bet £30 R.Thornton @1.29 (v Young) W
3. (b) bet £38.26 G.Anderson @1.29 (v Waites) L -£30 (-£30.68) :(

4. (a) bet £24 Aston Villa @5/4 (@Burnley) L :(
4. (b) bet £6 AV ht @3 L -£30 (-£60.68)

5. (a) bet £25 Arsenal @1.73 (@Sunderland) L
5. (b) bet £5 Arsenal ht @2.32 L -£30 (-£90.68) :(

6. (a) lay £26.31 Chelsea ht @1.57 (v Wolves) L
6. (b) bet £11 Under 2.5 Goals @2.54 L
6. (c) bet £4 Chelsea 3-0 @8 L -£30 (-£120.68) :(

7. (a) bet £30 T.Jenkins @1.5 (v Thornton) W £15 (-£105.68) :)

8. bet £30 Kauto Star @11/10 (2.55 Haydock) W £33 (-£72.68) :)

9. bet £30 Rooney To Score @EVS (MU v Eve) L -£30 (-£102.68) :(

10. (a) bet £25 My Arch (place) @3.5 (3.10 Muss) W £59.37
10. (b) bet £5 My Arch @10.5 W £45.12 Total won on bet: £104.49 (£1.81) :)

11. bet £30 Under 2.5 Goals @1.82 (Espanyol v Getafe) W £23.37 (£25.18) :)

12. bet £30 Philadelphia Eagles @1.62 (@Bears) W £18.60 (£43.78) :)

13. lay £22 FCU @2.36 (v D.Bucharest) L £29.92 (£13.86) :(

14. bet £30 Total 3 sets (Djokovic v Davydenko) @2.5 (Sporting) W £45 (£58.86) :)

15. bet £30 Barrow @1.75 (BWIN) L -£30 (£28.86) :(

16. bet £30 Over 2.5 Goals @1.97 (Charlton v Bristol Rovers) W £27.64 (£56.50) :)

17. bet £30 Colchester @1.56 (v Stockport) W £15.96 (£72.46) :)

Tues Football Results
Charlton 4-2 Bristol Rovers
Colchester 2-0 Stockport
Barrow 2-2 Grays

ATP London Wed: Djokovic (3rd) v Soderling (9th)

Djoko has won back to back titles in Basle and Paris, coming into this match with 11 straight wins. After admitting in September that he had under-achieved this year, with the help of his new fitness and coaching team he hasn't looked back since. His aim is to be World No 1 and after reading about his dedication and his intelligence of the game, I think he can get there. He certainly has the ability.

H2H it is 5-0 to Djoko including 2 wins in the last 2 months, 4 of those 5 wins on hard. Soderling came into the Paris event off an injury and Djoko beat him in the QF 2-1. Soderling beat an under-par Nadal 2-0 on Monday. Meanwhile Djoko after a slow start, got his act together beating Davydenko 2-1. Soderling should be the fresher, but the way Djoko is playing with 11 straight wins, his H2H and his improved fitness, I have to go with the Serbian to get the job done.

18. (a) bet £30 Novak Djokovic @1.39 (v Soderling)

Wed Bulgarian Premier League: Levski Sofia (4th) v Litex Lovech (1st)

Levski: W7-D1-L4

Litex: W10-D1-L1

Best Fixed Odds: H 1.95 D 3.4 A 3.8

Both of these teams come into the match in great form, Levski with 4 consecutive wins after a slow start and Litex with 5 wins (unbeaten in 10). Both recording convincing wins LTO, Levski 3-0 and Litex 5-0 both at home.

Its 5 wins apiece with 4 draws in last 14 x H2H. Unders has come in 9 times (64%) in those matches.

Levski, the defending League champions have a poor home record this term, losing 3 of 6 games. Litex have an awesome away record winning 5 of their 6 and drawing the other. It's Litex' defence this season that has been their main strength, only conceding 4 leagues goals in 12 games. So under 2.5 goals could be a wise choice tonight. But I'm siding with the away team by laying Levski. Laying Levski this term would have returned a huge profit thanks to the three home games they've lost when big odds-on.

Both teams have different coaches to the ones that started the season, but it is Levski who are under all the pressure coming into the game. Levski are 9 points behind the leaders and cannot afford to lose tonight. Looking at their injury problems though and Litex' exceptional form especially in defence, it will be extremely difficult for them to close that gap tonight.

All of Litex' squad is fit and the coach has selection headaches with the team in such good form and high in confidence. Meanwhile, the situation at Levski could not be more different, as the Blues have no less than five key players out, including goalkeeper Georgi Petkov, midfielders Dimitar Telkiiski, Georgi Surmov and Luchezar Baltanov, as well as forward Marian Ognyanov, ruled out. Two of Levski's most experienced players, Hristo Yovov and Elin Topouzakov, are severely lacking match fitness and are unlikely to be in the starting eleven.

"The pressure is entirely on Levski's shoulders. You can see that they are nervous, they know that if they lose the match, it will get very hard for them," Litex head coach Angel Chervenkov was quoted as saying by website sportal.bg.

"On the flip side, we are well prepared for the match. We are coming to Sofia for the three points," he said.

lay Levski Sofia @2-2.1 or bet under 2.5 goals @1.8 (no liquidity yet)

1.00 Lingfield C5 6f hcap 11run

Wake Up Call (fav) 3yo won C5 maiden @Kemp LTO very easily 5L (eased), 2nd in maiden here @Ling over 7f (1L).....debut in hcap today sure to be involved

Bilberry consistent sort who was hampered LTO over C&D beaten 1.75 lengths but would have been alot closer. Only two wins have come over 7f which is the concern, but if he isn't too far behind will be sure to be running on

Musical Script like Bilberry plenty of placed efforts and another that will come from the back. 2nd LTO over 7f @Kempton, has won over 6f but most of his current form is at @Kemp so looks like he does his best running there

Make My Dream only wins have come over 5f but has placed efforts over 6f.....2nd hd @Nott LTO....0.75 length 3rd here @Ling prev (5f)...won C4 race @Sandown in Sept......has the ability - for sure to be involved and will probably race prominent, just a concern he might not last home today with some strong finishers in the race.........needs to scoot clear, he will take them along with Figaro Flyer who is a AW sprint specialist, best seen over 5f

Gentle Guru won C6 6f @Kemp LTO (going away) that was her best run for some time, was disappointing beforehand.......up 6lbs for that win, hopefully LTO was a one-off but will be involved if running to that level

bet £9 Bilberry @5.6
bet £6 Make My Dream @8
bet £8.50 Bilberry (place) @1.9
bet £6.50 Make My Dream (place) @2.52

Taking a chance the fav blows out on handicap debut but they often do......GL

18. (a) bet £30 Novak Djokovic @1.39 (v Soderling)

19. (a) bet £9 Bilberry @5.6 (1.00 Ling) W £39.33
19. (b) bet £6 Make My Dream @8 L -£6
19. (c) bet £8.50 Bilberry (place) @1.9 W £7.27
19. (d) bet £6.50 Make My Dream (place) @2.52 W £9.39 Total Won on bet: £49.99 :)

Lingfield 13:00
1st 6.Billberry (11/4)
2nd 4.Make My Dream (10/1)
3rd 3.Wake Up Call (6/5F)
9 ran NR 7, 10
Status: Weighed In

18. (a) bet £30 Novak Djokovic @1.39 (v Soderling) L -£30 (£42.46) :(

19. (a) bet £9 Bilberry @5.6 (1.00 Ling) W £39.33
19. (b) bet £6 Make My Dream @8 L -£6
19. (c) bet £8.50 Bilberry (place) @1.9 W £7.27
19. (d) bet £6.50 Make My Dream (place) @2.52 W £9.39 Total Won on bet: £49.99 (£92.45) :)

Djokovic looked tired and moody today, Soderling played well, frustrating Novak. The first set won on a tie-break and that was it then, Djoko hardly tried 2nd set losing it 1-6. Hate it when 2/5 shots lose.

Levski Sofia have drifted right out to 2.3, they were a best-price 1.95 this morning! the bookies have read my write-up........right we have Levski to lay @2.3 and unders at around the same price @1.75

20. (a) lay £11.54 Levski Sofia @2.3 (v Litex)
20. (b) bet £15 Under 2.5 Goals @1.75

20. (c) bet £2 on Levski 2-1 @10.5 (saver)

Week 3 (Bank: £1087.80)
1. (a) bet £30 O'Shea @1.57 (v Webster) if he wins W
1. (b) bet £46.24 Painter @1.3 (v Shepherd) W £29.42 (£29.42) :)

2. bet £30 Carolina -3.5 @2.02 L -£30 (-£0.68) :(

3. (a) bet £30 R.Thornton @1.29 (v Young) W
3. (b) bet £38.26 G.Anderson @1.29 (v Waites) L -£30 (-£30.68) :(

4. (a) bet £24 Aston Villa @5/4 (@Burnley) L
4. (b) bet £6 AV ht @3 L -£30 (-£60.68) :(

5. (a) bet £25 Arsenal @1.73 (@Sunderland) L
5. (b) bet £5 Arsenal ht @2.32 L -£30 (-£90.68) :(

6. (a) lay £26.31 Chelsea ht @1.57 (v Wolves) L
6. (b) bet £11 Under 2.5 Goals @2.54 L
6. (c) bet £4 Chelsea 3-0 @8 L -£30 (-£120.68) :(

7. (a) bet £30 T.Jenkins @1.5 (v Thornton) W £15 (-£105.68) :)

8. bet £30 Kauto Star @11/10 (2.55 Haydock) W £33 (-£72.68) :)

9. bet £30 Rooney To Score @EVS (MU v Eve) L -£30 (-£102.68) :(

10. (a) bet £25 My Arch (place) @3.5 (3.10 Muss) W £59.37
10. (b) bet £5 My Arch @10.5 W £45.12 Total won on bet: £104.49 (£1.81) :)

11. bet £30 Under 2.5 Goals @1.82 (Espanyol v Getafe) W £23.37 (£25.18) :)

12. bet £30 Philadelphia Eagles @1.62 (@Bears) W £18.60 (£43.78) :)

13. lay £22 FCU @2.36 (v D.Bucharest) L £29.92 (£13.86) :(

14. bet £30 Total 3 sets (Djokovic v Davydenko) @2.5 (Sporting) W £45 (£58.86) :)

15. bet £30 Barrow @1.75 (BWIN) L -£30 (£28.86) :(

16. bet £30 Over 2.5 Goals @1.97 (Charlton v Bristol Rovers) W £27.64 (£56.50) :)

17. bet £30 Colchester @1.56 (v Stockport) W £15.96 (£72.46) :)

18. (a) bet £30 Novak Djokovic @1.39 (v Soderling) L -£30 (£42.46) :(

19. (a) bet £9 Bilberry @5.6 (1.00 Ling) W £39.33
19. (b) bet £6 Make My Dream @8 L -£6
19. (c) bet £8.50 Bilberry (place) @1.9 W £7.27
19. (d) bet £6.50 Make My Dream (place) @2.52 W £9.39 Total Won on bet: £49.99 (£92.45) :)

20. (a) lay £11.54 Levski Sofia @2.3 (v Litex) W £10.96
20. (b) bet £15 Under 2.5 Goals @1.75 L -£15
20. (c) bet £2 on Levski 2-1 @10.5 (saver) L -£2 Total Loss on bet: £6.04 (£86.41) :(

End of Week 3
Profit: £86.41
Staked: £602
ROI: 14.4%
S/R: 10/20 (50%)

Total (3 weeks)
Start Bank: £1000
Stakes: 3% (£30)

Profit: £174.21
Staked: £1602
ROI: 10.9%
S/R: 28/53 (53%)

New Bank: £1174.21
New Stakes: £35

Only 50% strike-rate this week, but two nice bets on the nags makes it a decent ROI %

Darts tournament showed a loss and a nightmare on Prem Football last Saturday......onto Week 4

Wed Football Result
Levski 2-2 Litex

three red cards and three second-half goals spoiling my bet

Week 4 (Bank: £1174.21)

1. (a) bet £30 Riverside Theatre @1.93 (1.55 Newb)
1. (b) bet £3 Captain Americo @9
1. (c) bet £2 Calusa Crystal @19

This horse should be different class on chase debut. N Henderson's in great form. Covered with two with experience of fences and potential improvers.

why not just lay the 2 fav
remember every horse has some sort of chance

I have layed the 2nd fav but in a different way............I'd be disappointed if this hotpot didn't win

Week 4 (Bank: £1174.21)
1. (a) bet £30 Riverside Theatre @1.93 (1.55 Newb) W £26.50
1. (b) bet £3 Captain Americo @9 L -£3
1. (c) bet £2 Calusa Crystal @19 L -£2 Won £21.50 on bet (£21.50)

Riverside was very impressive jumped like a stag.....wasted money covering but a good start to the week

2. (a) bet £20 Desperate Dan @3.4 (5.00 Kemp)
2. (b) bet £8 Sam's Cross @9
2. (c) bet £7 Obe Gold @10

Dutched the three main rivals to Lethal, who I am in effect laying. Desperate Dan looks absolutely thrown in here and should get the better of Lethal in the closing stages. Lethal was 0.5 length 2nd over C&D LTO leading all the way before being collared close home. I originally looked at this race with the view of backing Musical Script but he is a non-runner.

Lethal has a worse draw to overcome today (3) and will need to cut across early. He has the pace to do so, but if he didn't win LTO in similar company when he had the ideal chance, I cannot see him winning today. Good old Desperate Dan always runs a good race, has won over 5f and 6f this year and looks the stronger finisher out of the two favs and is 9lbs clear on OR.

Sam's Cross won a little hcap here in Sept, if reproducing that run has a chance and Obe Gold is out of form, but has the ability at these weights.

Thurs French Lique 2: Metz (5th) v Clermont (13th)

Metz are getting their act together after a slow start, winning 4 of the last 6 matches and drawing the other two. They are unbeaten at home, winning 5 of 7 matches and keeping 5 clean sheets. That brings UNDERS @1.66 into play tonight and 85% of Metz home games have been Unders so far. In 28 games these teams have played this season between them, 20 have seen a draw at half-time (71%) and the draw at ht is tempting @2.2.

Clermont come into the game on the back of a home defeat to Nimes. They have lost three of the last 6 games, winning two and drawing the other. They have lost 3 of 6 away and haven't kept a clean sheet on their travels yet. Metz can go 2nd in the table with a win tonight and that is the route I will take.

3. bet £35 Metz @1.77 (v Clermont)

1. (a) bet £30 Riverside Theatre @1.93 (1.55 Newb) W £26.50
1. (b) bet £3 Captain Americo @9 L -£3
1. (c) bet £2 Calusa Crystal @19 L -£2 Won £21.50 on bet (£21.50) :)

2. (a) bet £20 Desperate Dan @3.4 (5.00 Kemp) L
2. (b) bet £8 Sam's Cross @9 L
2. (c) bet £7 Obe Gold @10 L -£35 (-£13.50) :(

3. bet £35 Metz @1.77 (v Clermont)

Kempton 17:00
1st 7.Lethal 2.18 11/10F
2nd 6.Desperate Dan 3.93 11/4
3rd 3.Obe Gold 9.57 6/1
8 ran NR 2, 5
Status: Result

Lethal did hold on..... Desperate Dan didn't find as much as looked likely at one stage

I.quit.my.job 23 Nov 18:16
I'm not a big fan of football ratings and stats, but...


I.quit.my.job 26 Nov 15:30
Metz are getting their act together after a slow start, winning 4 of the last 6 matches and drawing the other two. They are unbeaten at home, winning 5 of 7 matches and keeping 5 clean sheets. That brings UNDERS @1.66 into play tonight and 85% of Metz home games have been Unders so far. In 28 games these teams have played this season between them, 20 have seen a draw at half-time (71%)...


As far as I can tell, these are all stats. I trust you're aware that you continually contradict yourself?

Ebasson son son ......I wasn't a big user of football stats and ratings but I'm warming to them after using them more and more this week. Is this okay my Scandinavian friend?

Metz 2-1 Clermont (0-0 ht)

the goals all coming in the last twenty minutes

Week 4 (Bank: £1174.21)
1. (a) bet £30 Riverside Theatre @1.93 (1.55 Newb) W £26.50
1. (b) bet £3 Captain Americo @9 L -£3
1. (c) bet £2 Calusa Crystal @19 L -£2 Won £21.50 on bet (£21.50) :)

2. (a) bet £20 Desperate Dan @3.4 (5.00 Kemp) L
2. (b) bet £8 Sam's Cross @9 L
2. (c) bet £7 Obe Gold @10 L -£35 (-£13.50) :(

3. bet £35 Metz @1.77 (v Clermont) W £25.60 (£12.10) :)

Fri 17:00 Austrian Erste Liga: Salzburg AMs (7th) v 1st Vienna(9th)

Salzburg: W5-D4-L7
Vienna: W5-D2-L10

These teams have similar records in the league, both only winning 5 matches. In 33 matches played between them this season they have only kept 2 clean sheets apiece so goals look a certainty in this match. An astonishing 87% of Salzburg games have been OVERS and 59% of Vienna's games. These teams biggest victories have come against lowly Hartberg, Salzburg winning 7-1 at home and Vienna winning 1-5 away. Overs looks a certainty but it's reflected in the price of 1.55.

These teams results have been erratic so far, Salzburg come into the game with a 2-0 win in FC Lustenau, 1st Vienna with a 2-0 home loss to Austria Wien (A) who are below them in the table. In the reverse fixture in August Salzburg claimed a 2-1 away win. Salzburg's home form is not great, only winning 25% of home fixtures (2 in 8). Vienna have won 33% away (3 in 9). Salzburg could be a lay @1.9 going on that home record but I'm taking the OVERS route @1.55 (Uni Bet)

Dutch Jupiler League Friday 19:00: Dordrecht (8th) v Go Ahead Eagles (1st)

Dordrecht: W8-D2-L7
Eagles: W12-D3-L2

Eagles have won their last 5 league games and are flying at the top of the League. They are 13 points ahead of tonight's opponents Dordrecht after 17 games. Dordrecht on the other hand have lost 5 out of the last six, although they did get a win against lowly Harlem LTO.

In this goal crazy league (65% of matches played have been OVERS), the majority of Eagles games are UNDERS (53% in total but 62% UNDERS away from home). They have kept clean sheets in 47% of matches and only failed to score in 12%. Eagles also have the tighest defence in the League.

Dordrecht are the opposite - goal crazy, 65% OVERS this season and an amazing 83% of 18 H2H have finished OVERS. Looking at H2H it's pretty even - Dordrecht W8-D3-L7. Dordrecht have got the advantage in H2H in recent years but it's hard to look beyond the strong Eagles form coming into this game.

Eagles have only lost once away this season in 8 matches and Dordrecht have lost a poor 5 in 8 home games. Lay the home team @2.5.....Eagles are flying and have just reached an agreement with Manager Andries Ulderink to remain in charge next season and central-defender Dave Bus has also signed a contract extension.

Fri Dutch Jupiler League: FC Emmen (20th) vs. FC Eindhoven (18th)

bet OVER 2.5 GOALS @1.57 (Expekt)

OVERS in 82% of Eindhoven games, 71% Emmen's matches. 66% of H2H have been OVERS.

Emmen despite being bottom of the table have put in some decent results lately. Since being thrashed 5-0 and 6-0 in mid-October, they then won two on the trot including an impressive 4-2 home victory against 4th in the table Excelsior and a 1-3 away win in TOP Oss. They drew their last home match 0-0 against Fortuna and despite two defeats sandwiched inbetween, those losses were narrow 1-0 and 1-2 defeats to Cambuur (2nd) and in Graafschap (3rd).....so very respectable form.

Eindhoven have won their last two home matches but away from home they are winless and have lost the last four. They are yet to keep a clean sheet away.

FC Emmen finished in mid-table last season and 9 points infront of Eindhoven and a win tonight takes them above them in the table. So this match is a vital three points

H2H it's advantage Emmen W9-D5-L4 (W7-D1-L1) particularly at home, so although on 1st reflection you are attracted to the OVERS, on closer inspection a bet of Emmen @2.2 is more appealing

4. bet £35 Over 2.5 Goals @1.55 (Salzburg v 1st Vienna) Uni Bet

5. lay £23.02 Dordrecht @2.52 (v Go Ahead Eagles)

6. bet £35 Emmen @2.2 (v FC Eindhoven)

Week 4 (Bank: £1174.21)
1. (a) bet £30 Riverside Theatre @1.93 (1.55 Newb) W £26.50
1. (b) bet £3 Captain Americo @9 L -£3
1. (c) bet £2 Calusa Crystal @19 L -£2 Won £21.50 on bet (£21.50) :)

2. (a) bet £20 Desperate Dan @3.4 (5.00 Kemp) L
2. (b) bet £8 Sam's Cross @9 L
2. (c) bet £7 Obe Gold @10 L -£35 (-£13.50) :(

3. bet £35 Metz @1.77 (v Clermont) W £25.60 (£12.10) :)

4. bet £35 Over 2.5 Goals @1.55 (Salzburg v 1st Vienna) W £19.25 (£31.35) :)

5. lay £23.02 Dordrecht @2.52 (v Go Ahead Eagles) L -£35 (-£3.65) :(

6. bet £35 Emmen @2.2 (v FC Eindhoven) W £42 (£38.35) :)

Results
Salzburg 2-1 1st Vienna
Dordrecht 2-0 Go Ahead Eagles (Dordrecht SP of 2.3)
Emmen 4-1 FC Eindhoven (Emmen SP of 2.6)

lesson here is not to take early prices when betting on Foreign Leagues, the drift on Emmen costing £14 potential further profit. Some Firms don't open their betting until the day of the games so predicting the price movements is impossible.

Sat Championship: Notts Forest (9th) v Doncaster (16th)

NF: W6-D8-L3
Donny: W3-D9-L5

Forest are in good form, 3rd in form table (last eight matches). After 5 consecutive wins they have drew their last four matches 1-1. Three of those draws were away from home so not bad form at all. They have one of the tightest defences conceding 16 goals in 17 matches and 82% of their games have been UNDERS so they keep it tight at the back. Forest are 8 points clear of Donny and only one point off a play-off spot.

Donny also have a high percentage of unders - 59%, so unders is an option @1.71. Rovers have not won away from home yet this season, so you can lay Doncaster with confidence. They have a mixed bag of form - plenty of draws, although they did gain a confidence boosting win over highly fancied QPR LTO. That was only there second win in 12 matches though and they will find it hard to improve on that record at the City Ground on Saturday.

Over 50% of both teams total matches have been draws at half-time so I wouldn't bet against it being 0-0 at half-time on Saturday. I'm taking NF to get back on the winning trail Saturday though at a good price of around 1.95. Forest' top scorer Dexter Blackstock is pushing for a recall after injury.

bet N Forest @1.95 (v Donc)

7. bet £35 Notts Forest @10/11 (v Doncaster)

Newcastle (1st) v Swansea (4th)

New: W11-D3-L3
Swa: W7-D7-L3

Both teams come into the game in tremendous form, both have won 4 of their last 5 matches

Newc 59% unders
Swa 77% unders

Both teams fill the top two places in clean sheet table, Swa 59%, Newc 53%

Two of the best defences in the league, Newc conceded 10 goals and Swa 12 in 17 games

7/8 (88%) of Swansea away games have been UNDERS this season

you know what's coming...........bet UNDER 2.5 GOALS @1.75 (b365)

8. bet £35 Under 2.5 Goals @1.75 b365 (Newc v Swa)

9. (a) bet £11 Draw @3.6 (Newcastle v Swansea)
9. (b) bet £11 Draw @3.4 (Scunthorpe v Leicester)
9. (c) bet £11 Draw @3.3 (Motherwell v Dundee United)
9. (d) bet £2 Treble @40.39

all Tote sport prices

not doing a detailed write-up but the keys here are the Leagues represented, the form of the away team and the strong likelihood of unders

Week 4 (Bank: £1174.21)
1. (a) bet £30 Riverside Theatre @1.93 (1.55 Newb) W £26.50
1. (b) bet £3 Captain Americo @9 L -£3
1. (c) bet £2 Calusa Crystal @19 L -£2 Won £21.50 on bet (£21.50) :)

2. (a) bet £20 Desperate Dan @3.4 (5.00 Kemp) L
2. (b) bet £8 Sam's Cross @9 L
2. (c) bet £7 Obe Gold @10 L -£35 (-£13.50) :(

3. bet £35 Metz @1.77 (v Clermont) W £25.60 (£12.10) :)

4. bet £35 Over 2.5 Goals @1.55 (Salzburg v 1st Vienna) W £19.25 (£31.35) :)

5. lay £23.02 Dordrecht @2.52 (v Go Ahead Eagles) L -£35 (-£3.65) :(

6. bet £35 Emmen @2.2 (v FC Eindhoven) W £42 (£38.35) :)

7. bet £35 Notts Forest @10/11 (v Doncaster) W £31.81 (£70.17) :)

8. bet £35 Under 2.5 Goals @1.75 b365 (Newc v Swa) L -£35 (£35.17) :(

9. (a) bet £11 Draw @3.6 (Newcastle v Swansea) L -£11
9. (b) bet £11 Draw @3.4 (Scunthorpe v Leicester) W £26.40
9. (c) bet £11 Draw @3.3 (Motherwell v Dundee United) W £25.30
9. (d) bet £2 Treble @40.39 L -£2 Total Won on bet: £38.70 (£73.87) :)

Results
Forest 4-1 Doncaster
Newcastle 3-0 Swansea
Scunthorpe 1-1 Leicester
Motherwell 2-2 Dundee United

10. lay £26.12 Brisbane @2.34 (v Wellington)

Australia A League: Brisbane (8th) v Wellington (6th) (8.00 am)

Brisbane: W4-D4-L7
Wellington: W4-D8-L3

Wellington come into the game with 3 wins in the last 5 matches and have only lost once in 11. Brisbane have only one win in 5 and have lost 6 of the last 11 matches. 66% of Wellington's away games have been UNDERS and in 15 games played, Wellington have drew 1-1 six times (40%). I see a similar scoreline today against a out-of-form side. LAY BRISBANE @2.34 (IP if you want to get involved)

Ukraine 11.00am Arsenal Kiev (8th) v Metallist (2nd)

Kiev: W4-D4-L5
Metallist: W9-D2-L2

Metallist have won the last five on the bounce, Kiev only 2 wins in last ten. Metallist have kept a clean sheet in the last 6 and 92% of their games have been UNDERS so they are very good defensively. Kiev's last clean sheet came way back in August, so i fancy Metallist to keep the good run going today. Metallist took this fixture 2-0 last season and I see a similar scoreline today.

11. bet £35 Metallist @1.8 wh (@Arsenal Kiev)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Championship 3.00pm: Cardiff (7th) v Ipswich (23rd)

Cardiff: W8-D3-L6
Ipswich: W1-D10-L6

Cardiff have challenged near the top of the table all season but they need a win today to get back in the play-off zone. They have lost the last two games away in Barnsley and Swansea and have not lost 3 in a row since 2007.

Ipswich after a disastrous start under Roy Keane are still near the foot of the table after becoming the draw specialists of the league (59% draws). At least they are keeping it tighter at the back after looking so open earlier in the season, so that is why I'm playing the UNDERS @1.95. The last six Ipswich games have been UNDERS as have the last three Cardiff home games.

12. bet £35 Under 2.5 Goals @1.95 b365 (Cardiff v Ipswich)


Oz Result
Brisbane 4-1 Wellington :(

Wellington went down to ten men after going behind 2-1 so that pretty much put an end to my bet's chances. There was a small green available at ht when it was 1-1 and on reflection should have taken it after watching the first half, but I want to try and make this strategy work without trading out. Wellington were lucky to still be in the game at ht and after a hard away game last week in the heat in Adelaide, they were likely to tire in the 2nd half in the heat again.

Metalist won, well done!!!

Week 4 (Bank: £1174.21)
1. (a) bet £30 Riverside Theatre @1.93 (1.55 Newb) W £26.50
1. (b) bet £3 Captain Americo @9 L -£3
1. (c) bet £2 Calusa Crystal @19 L -£2 Won £21.50 on bet (£21.50) :)

2. (a) bet £20 Desperate Dan @3.4 (5.00 Kemp) L
2. (b) bet £8 Sam's Cross @9 L
2. (c) bet £7 Obe Gold @10 L -£35 (-£13.50) :(

3. bet £35 Metz @1.77 (v Clermont) W £25.60 (£12.10) :)

4. bet £35 Over 2.5 Goals @1.55 (Salzburg v 1st Vienna) W £19.25 (£31.35) :)

5. lay £23.02 Dordrecht @2.52 (v Go Ahead Eagles) L -£35 (-£3.65) :(

6. bet £35 Emmen @2.2 (v FC Eindhoven) W £42 (£38.35) :)

7. bet £35 Notts Forest @10/11 (v Doncaster) W £31.81 (£70.17) :)

8. bet £35 Under 2.5 Goals @1.75 b365 (Newc v Swa) L -£35 (£35.17) :(

9. (a) bet £11 Draw @3.6 (Newcastle v Swansea) L -£11
9. (b) bet £11 Draw @3.4 (Scunthorpe v Leicester) W £26.40
9. (c) bet £11 Draw @3.3 (Motherwell v Dundee United) W £25.30
9. (d) bet £2 Treble @40.39 L -£2 Total Won on bet: £38.70 (£73.87) :)

10. lay £26.12 Brisbane @2.34 (v Wellington) L -£35 (£38.87) :(

11. bet £35 Metallist @1.8 wh (@Arsenal Kiev) W £28 (£66.87) :)

12. bet £35 Under 2.5 Goals @1.95 b365 (Cardiff v Ipswich) L -£35 (£31.87) :(

Results
A. Kiev 1-2 Metallist
Cardiff 1-2 Ipswich

13. bet £35 R.Mendenhall @1.67 (v R.Rice most rushing yards Steelers@Ravens) sky

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
No Big Ben for Steelers meaning they have a rookie QB playing today. That should mean running the ball alot more, so that makes R.Mendenhall, the Steelers leading RB the key man today. Pittsburgh is rated 1st in NFL in stopping the run, only allowing 69.2 yards per game. In the H2H stats you see they look very evenly matched, Mildenhall averaging 0.1 yards more but has only 4 TD to Rice's 6 TD. But I think in the circumstances the Steeler's should run the ball more tonight and have the best Run Defense in the NFL who will need to put in a big show tonight. Mildenhall has extra motivation tonight and will be keen to impress against the team that ended his season through injury last year.

Rushing (Car/Yds/Avg/TDs)
Rashard Mendenhall 134 - 689 - 5.1 - 4
Ray Rice 148 - 733 - 5 - 6

13. bet £35 R.Mendenhall @1.67 (v R.Rice most rushing yards Steelers@Ravens) W £23.45 (£55.32) :)

Mendenhall 95 yards just beating Rice's 88 yards.....Ravens won a thriller though 20-17 in OT

Dutch Jupiler League Monday 19:00: Go Ahead Eagles (1st) v Helmond Sport (5th)

Eagles: W12-D3-L3
Helmond: W9-D4-L5

Eagles lost away in Dordrecht Fri night 2-0, that halted a 5 match winning streak. They still have won 5 matches in the last 8, compared to Helmond's 3 wins in 8. Helmond are on a 2 match winning streak but I cannot see them stretching that streak against the league leaders tonight. Eagles have a 66% win percentage this season and an even better 77% home win percentage. More importantly in this goal crazy league, Eagles have a 66% clean sheet record at home, compared with Helmond's 22% away.

55% of Eagles home games have been OVERS and a very high 88% of Helmond's away games have been OVERS. That makes OVERS a strong bet tonight @1.74. Note the last 7 of Helmond's games have been OVERS too.

Eagles are 8 points ahead of Helmond in the table and they will want to get back on the winning trail to cement their place at the top. In the last 18 H2H it's even, Eagles with 7 wins to Helmond's 8. It's been OVERS in 66% of those H2H and Eagles took 4 points off Helmond last season. I'l play both the home win @1.87 (BF) and the OVERS @1.74 (BF), with a saver on 2-0 @10 (sporting bet) I can't see them drifting tonight like they did Fri night.

14. bet £35 Go Ahead Eagles @1.87 (v Helmond)

15. (a) bet £29 Over 2.5 Goals @1.74 (Eagles v Helmond)
15. (b) bet £6 2-0 @10 sporting

16. (a) bet £30 Kanad (place) @BSP (1.20 Fakenham)
16. (b) bet £5 Kanad @6

1.20 Fakenham
Kanad ran a good race LTO earlier this month in a similar race, finishing 2nd to the top-class prospect Sommersby. Considering that was Kanad's 1st race in nearly 2 years it was quite impressive and he finished infront of Straw Bear (former Champion Hurdle horse). Rated 130 over hurdles, which gives him 5lbs to find with the fav Working Title on their hurdles ratings. But this is Working Title's 1st run for 226 days and his 1st run over fences, whereas Kanad had that run LTO for experience. But Henderson's stable are in great nick, so the fav is sure to run a big race

I Have Dreamed the other main contender lost to another Henderson Hotpot last week at Kempton in You're The Top (rated 131 over hurdles). He ran a little green and never really threatened the fav, so he needs to improve for me even to grab second today. He looked a little awkward, he may come on for the run and has won over fences, but the value is with Kanad for sure. RP quote that Kanad may not act on the ground, but he has form on soft on the flat and over hurdles, although quite a while ago. I Have Dreamed needs to improve from last week and there is no guarantee the fav runs as well over fences. It was a good performance LTO for Kanad considering the long absence and he is sure to win a race of this nature in time.

IQMJ - There are only 2 places in 1.20 race ....the win and the 2nd .............So is a PLACE bet such a "good" bet in such a race, a Novice Chase?

If you believe it will be at least 2nd.....then perhaps , where you have such a strongly fancied favourite the bet should be "dutched" between the WIN and a SFC with fav beating KANAD?

SAFE INVESTMENT may well be danger to the SFC if going is softer than GTS, however KANAD apperas to hod a good chance to be either 1st or 2nd........so GL with bet.

thanks for pointing out there are only 2 places in a 6 runner field DFC.......... I've only been betting on horses for ten years or so, so didn't realise :D

Kanad didn't handle the track, jumped right-handed and to be fair 'I Have Dreamed' ran a decent race, just bumping into another one of Henderson's hotshots for the second time in a week

Fakenham 13:20
1st 6.Working Title (IRE) 1.84 4/6F
2nd 1.I Have Dreamed (IRE) 3.15 9/4
6 ran
Status: Weighed In

GO AHEAD EAGLES make my day

Week 4 (Bank: £1174.21)
1. (a) bet £30 Riverside Theatre @1.93 (1.55 Newb) W £26.50
1. (b) bet £3 Captain Americo @9 L -£3
1. (c) bet £2 Calusa Crystal @19 L -£2 Won £21.50 on bet (£21.50) :)

2. (a) bet £20 Desperate Dan @3.4 (5.00 Kemp) L
2. (b) bet £8 Sam's Cross @9 L
2. (c) bet £7 Obe Gold @10 L -£35 (-£13.50) :(

3. bet £35 Metz @1.77 (v Clermont) W £25.60 (£12.10) :)

4. bet £35 Over 2.5 Goals @1.55 (Salzburg v 1st Vienna) W £19.25 (£31.35) :)

5. lay £23.02 Dordrecht @2.52 (v Go Ahead Eagles) L -£35 (-£3.65) :(

6. bet £35 Emmen @2.2 (v FC Eindhoven) W £42 (£38.35) :)

7. bet £35 Notts Forest @10/11 (v Doncaster) W £31.81 (£70.17) :)

8. bet £35 Under 2.5 Goals @1.75 b365 (Newc v Swa) L -£35 (£35.17) :(

9. (a) bet £11 Draw @3.6 (Newcastle v Swansea) L -£11
9. (b) bet £11 Draw @3.4 (Scunthorpe v Leicester) W £26.40
9. (c) bet £11 Draw @3.3 (Motherwell v Dundee United) W £25.30
9. (d) bet £2 Treble @40.39 L -£2 Total Won on bet: £38.70 (£73.87) :)

10. lay £26.12 Brisbane @2.34 (v Wellington) L -£35 (£38.87) :(

11. bet £35 Metallist @1.8 wh (@Arsenal Kiev) W £28 (£66.87) :)

12. bet £35 Under 2.5 Goals @1.95 b365 (Cardiff v Ipswich) L -£35 (£31.87) :(

13. bet £35 R.Mendenhall @1.67 (v R.Rice most rushing yards Steelers@Ravens) W £23.45 (£55.32) :)

14. bet £35 Go Ahead Eagles @1.87 (v Helmond) W £29.93 (£85.25) :)

15. (a) bet £29 Over 2.5 Goals @1.74 (Eagles v Helmond) W
15. (b) bet £6 2-0 @10 L .....Total Won on bet: £20.39 (£105.64) :)

16. (a) bet £30 Kanad (place) @BSP (1.20 Fakenham) L
16. (b) bet £5 Kanad @6 L -£35 (£70.64) :(

Result
Go Ahead Eagles 3-2 Helmond

French Lique 2 19:30: Strasbourg (19th) v Bastia (20th)

Strasbourg: W2-D7-L6
Bastia: W2-D4-L9

A bottom of the table clash tonight, both teams having similar records. But you look at Bastia's away record with 6 defeats in 7 games and 1 draw and that leads you to a bet of the home side at around 1.9. Bastia have been beaten on their last three away travels and Strasbourg have managed two wins in their last three home matches. Amazingly 87% of Bastia's games this season have been UNDERS which is quite remarkable for a bottom of the league club. That tells you that even though they lose the vast majority, they don't lose by many goals (0-1, 0-2). Unders look a strong bet tonight but it's a best price 1.53. Strasbourg are mid-table in the last 8 form table whereas Bastia are rock bottom of every table. I'l play the home win at around 1.9.

bet £35 Strasbourg @1.85 (b365)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

English League 1 19:45: Huddersfield (5th) v Tranmere (24th)

Huddersfield: W9-D3-L6
Tranmere: W4-D1-L13

Tranmere have lost 8 of 9 away games. Huddersfield are unbeaten at home, with 7 wins and 2 draws. Infact Huddersfield have the best home record in the division. Tranmere are sitting bottom of the table and only one of the bottom in the away table. Huddersfield have won the last four at home, three of them convincingly (2 x 4-0 scorelines and one emphatic 6-0 defeat of Wycombe).

Tranmere meanwhile have lost the last 4 away, including a 5-0 thumping at Millwall (10th). 77% of Huddersfield's home games have been OVERS and they are one of the top scorers in the league so I'm expecting a convincing Huddersfield win tonight. 1.4 to back for the match, but I'm taking them ht/ft @EVS to get the job done.

Tranmere have their long-term physio in temporary charge after they sacked the useless John Barnes after a disastrous run of form. Former Newcastle United star Lee Clarke's Huddersfield are in terrific form, having won six of their last seven in all competition including a 1-0 away win over Port Vale in the FA Cup on Saturday. Meanwhile Tranmere could only manage a goalless draw at home to lower league Aldershot. The only blip on Huddersfield's formbook was a 2-1 away defeat at Swindon last week, which brings me on to my third bet of the night.

bet £35 Hudderfield ht/ft @EVS (various)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

English League 1 19:45: Stockport (23rd) v Swindon (7th)

pitch inspection @9am

I can't be bothered with a detailed write-up but I'm laying the home side because Swindon are on a fine run and Stockport have lost the last six.

lay Stockport @3.6

17. bet £35 Strasbourg @1.85 (v Bastia)

18. bet £35 Hudderfield ht/ft @2.1 (v Tranmere)

19. (a) lay £13.46 Stockport @3.6 (v Swindon)

all Betfair prices

-£6 to come off rolling profit, bet 15. (b)

19. (a) lay £35 Mayor Of Kilcock @9 (2.40 Here)
19. (b) lay £13.46 Stockport @3.6 (v Swindon)

19. (a) lay £4.37 Mayor Of Kilcock @9 (2.40 Here) W £4.15
19. (b) lay £15.05 Stockport @3.6 (v Swindon)

typo error lay to £35 liability on Mayor Of Kilcock, I looked at this horse this morning but it was around 12..........backed into 9 made him a lay on going and handicapped to the hilt

Week 4 (Bank: £1174.21)
1. (a) bet £30 Riverside Theatre @1.93 (1.55 Newb) W £26.50
1. (b) bet £3 Captain Americo @9 L -£3
1. (c) bet £2 Calusa Crystal @19 L -£2 Won £21.50 on bet (£21.50) :)

2. (a) bet £20 Desperate Dan @3.4 (5.00 Kemp) L
2. (b) bet £8 Sam's Cross @9 L
2. (c) bet £7 Obe Gold @10 L -£35 (-£13.50) :(

3. bet £35 Metz @1.77 (v Clermont) W £25.60 (£12.10) :)

4. bet £35 Over 2.5 Goals @1.55 (Salzburg v 1st Vienna) W £19.25 (£31.35) :)

5. lay £23.02 Dordrecht @2.52 (v Go Ahead Eagles) L -£35 (-£3.65) :(

6. bet £35 Emmen @2.2 (v FC Eindhoven) W £42 (£38.35) :)

7. bet £35 Notts Forest @10/11 (v Doncaster) W £31.81 (£70.17) :)

8. bet £35 Under 2.5 Goals @1.75 b365 (Newc v Swa) L -£35 (£35.17) :(

9. (a) bet £11 Draw @3.6 (Newcastle v Swansea) L -£11
9. (b) bet £11 Draw @3.4 (Scunthorpe v Leicester) W £26.40
9. (c) bet £11 Draw @3.3 (Motherwell v Dundee United) W £25.30
9. (d) bet £2 Treble @40.39 L -£2 Total Won on bet: £38.70 (£73.87) :)

10. lay £26.12 Brisbane @2.34 (v Wellington) L -£35 (£38.87) :(

11. bet £35 Metallist @1.8 wh (@Arsenal Kiev) W £28 (£66.87) :)

12. bet £35 Under 2.5 Goals @1.95 b365 (Cardiff v Ipswich) L -£35 (£31.87) :(

13. bet £35 R.Mendenhall @1.67 (v R.Rice most rushing yards Steelers@Ravens) W £23.45 (£55.32) :)

14. bet £35 Go Ahead Eagles @1.87 (v Helmond) W £29.93 (£85.25) :)

15. (a) bet £29 Over 2.5 Goals @1.74 (Eagles v Helmond) W
15. (b) bet £6 2-0 @10 L .....Total Won on bet: £14.39 (£99.64) :)

16. (a) bet £30 Kanad (place) @BSP (1.20 Fakenham) L
16. (b) bet £5 Kanad @6 L -£35 (£64.64) :(

17. bet £35 Strasbourg @1.85 (v Bastia) W £28.26 (£92.90) :)

18. bet £35 Hudderfield ht/ft @2.1 (v Tranmere) L -£35 (£57.90) :(

19. (a) lay £4.37 Mayor Of Kilcock @9 (2.40 Here) W £4.15
19. (b) lay £15.05 Stockport @3.6 (v Swindon) NR

Results
Strasbourg 2-1 Bastia
Huddersfield 3-3 Tranmere (1-1 ht)
Stockport PP Swindon

Wed Blue Square Premier 19:45: Luton (8th) v Kettering (5th)

Bizarrely 57.9% of Kettering's points have come away from home, 7 of their 11 wins have come away. They have also only conceded 8 goals away in 10 games and have kept a clean sheet in 40% of them. The Poppies have won their last four straight away matches but have lost their last two matches at home. Both teams have an identical last 8 matches record with 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats.

Kettering although they have gone off the boil in the last couple of home games since losing their manager to Peterborough, they did manage an illustrious 1-1 draw with Leeds in the FA Cup on Sunday. That can either help the team in the league or it could work against them. It could spur them on and should fill the players with tons of confidence, or the players could take their eye of the boil a little with a replay Live on TV coming up @Elland Road. I'm hoping it does the former and I cannot understand why Luton are odds-on for this game.

Luton have only managed 2 draws and 1 loss in their last three home games and like Kettering their best form lately has come away from home (they have won their last four away league games). Both teams have a record of 80% unders in their last five matches, so I see a low-scoring affair tonight. The reverse fixture in August was a 0-0 draw. UNDERS is available @1.82 but I'm laying Luton @1.9.

I'm looking for team news, Kettering are likely to be unchanged from the side that drew with Leeds. Player-manager Lee Harper should shake off a back problem and the two loanees are eligible to come back into contention. Luton give debuts to two loanees from Coventry and Kidderminster, but goalkeeper Mark Tyler and loan giant striker Liam Hatch are out. Luton themselves had a good FA Cup result at the weekend drawing 2-2 with League 2 side Rotherham. Laying the home teams has not been too kind to me so far on this thread, but I'm looking to change that record tonight and Luton are plenty short enough.

19. (a) lay £4.37 Mayor Of Kilcock @9 (2.40 Here) W £4.15
19. (b) lay £15.05 Stockport @3.6 (v Swindon) NR
19. (c) lay £43.50 Luton @1.9 (v Kettering)

u do a lot of studying. ill say that for u iquit

Iquit - haven't read through all the thread, but just to say I know where you are coming from. Had more highs and lows than a rollercoaster in betting. I've also suffered exactly like you from the occasional outburst which sets you back for an age afterwards. I'm trying to wean myself off playing light night poker for a start - that's my killer!

It's a difficult route to discipline though, one thing I've noticed is that bad discipline can almost seem to be totally uncaused at times, rearing up just when you think you've finally got everything totally under control. I should know :(

GL.

time is money Freddie, you put the hours in, you reap the rewards

This thread has helped my discipline tremendously and has changed my whole outlook to betting in general. They say you find God when the answers become simple and I have just compiled a strategy that makes earning a full-time wage on here look remarkably simple. The time and effort spent studying this game is finally going to pay off in the New Year.

The last three weeks is ONE strategy, call it Pro Bets, on its own it's not enough to make a living (Unless you have 30k and can play £300 a point). I've combined all of my strategies into one big strategy and I can now think about making a living off BF. There are eight methods of making money in total and instead of relying on one strategy to make the money, there are several others to relieve the pressure.

Instead of a target of £300 a week from just trading pre-race on its own for example, the target for that particular strategy is a more manageable £37.50. It's took me eight months to come up with a way of making this game pay largely because of my 'compulsive gambler' trait that I had to conquer. But if the end result is a full-time income and FREEDOM in my work it would have all been worth it. People go to University for years to study, so eight months is nothing and I've enjoyed learning. Call the money lost this year (£800) tuition fees. I have lost considerably more in previous years in the betting shops that's for sure.

I have probably come across many other systems and ways of making money but have disregarded them as I was searching for the Golden Goose - the system that can guarantee you income. One system is not enough unless you have a massive bank, a combination of lots of things can get you to your goal.

How has Betfair led me to Buddhism? that is my only question left for the forum

*late night poker even...

Stu strangely the way I coped with discipline is by looking at the way I was betting from a higher state. Compulsive Gamblers have no control of their actions that's for sure. The brain is telling them that what they are doing is wrong and will end in tears, but the body still carries out such actions. This thread has learnt me that time is irrelevant, as is being infront/behind for several bets/days or even weeks.

I can invest my money now in complete control, it's like someone else is placing the bets/making the decisions for me. The true me (the one who has a brain and uses it at all times), not the person who cannot stand being wrong and being one penny behind at any stage. I think it's your ego that makes you lose sometimes. It's hard to explain but I'm at total peace right now and I am looking forward to investing again in the New Year. This time I know I am fully prepared to give it my best shot.

Investing is something we do after spending as much time as possible researching the bets/trades. We hope the investments will grow over time, the same way as someone who invest in shares, property or sets up a new business. Gambling is something we do by taking risks. This can happen after spending little time doing research or chasing losing investments that didn't go our way. Ego plays a big part in chasing. Look at it from above, not accepting being wrong is rather silly don't you think?

Some people say you need balls of steel to chase and gamble large amounts that you cannot afford - I say people who chase are WEAK, it takes a braver Man to accept the loss and close the trade or shut down the computer completely for a day or two.

Well done. Now you've learned you should keep quiet and reap, imho.

Yeh, I'd agree with most of that - have you ever played poker? My advice is don't if you haven't played it yet.

It's like all of the above, but magnified about 100 times - so much easier to lose control, use ego and of course to chase. I'm on here now musing about this stuff because I didn't keep all that in mind last night!

Haven't lost my rag in about a year before that either, which is why it just takes one switch to turn in your head and your back to square one for a while.

I only play poker down the pub, £10 all in winner takes the lot. I enjoy it and win more than I lose but I wouldn't dare play for higher stakes or online. I have over a million *****on Facebook if that means anything ;)

Betfairy do you want me to stop posting my previews? I write them anyway for my bets so what's the harm in sharing?

Week 4 (Bank: £1174.21)
1. (a) bet £30 Riverside Theatre @1.93 (1.55 Newb) W £26.50
1. (b) bet £3 Captain Americo @9 L -£3
1. (c) bet £2 Calusa Crystal @19 L -£2 Won £21.50 on bet (£21.50) :)

2. (a) bet £20 Desperate Dan @3.4 (5.00 Kemp) L
2. (b) bet £8 Sam's Cross @9 L
2. (c) bet £7 Obe Gold @10 L -£35 (-£13.50) :(

3. bet £35 Metz @1.77 (v Clermont) W £25.60 (£12.10) :)

4. bet £35 Over 2.5 Goals @1.55 (Salzburg v 1st Vienna) W £19.25 (£31.35) :)

5. lay £23.02 Dordrecht @2.52 (v Go Ahead Eagles) L -£35 (-£3.65) :(

6. bet £35 Emmen @2.2 (v FC Eindhoven) W £42 (£38.35) :)

7. bet £35 Notts Forest @10/11 (v Doncaster) W £31.81 (£70.17) :)

8. bet £35 Under 2.5 Goals @1.75 b365 (Newc v Swa) L -£35 (£35.17) :(

9. (a) bet £11 Draw @3.6 (Newcastle v Swansea) L -£11
9. (b) bet £11 Draw @3.4 (Scunthorpe v Leicester) W £26.40
9. (c) bet £11 Draw @3.3 (Motherwell v Dundee United) W £25.30
9. (d) bet £2 Treble @40.39 L -£2 Total Won on bet: £38.70 (£73.87) :)

10. lay £26.12 Brisbane @2.34 (v Wellington) L -£35 (£38.87) :(

11. bet £35 Metallist @1.8 wh (@Arsenal Kiev) W £28 (£66.87) :)

12. bet £35 Under 2.5 Goals @1.95 b365 (Cardiff v Ipswich) L -£35 (£31.87) :(

13. bet £35 R.Mendenhall @1.67 (v R.Rice most rushing yards Steelers@Ravens) W £23.45 (£55.32) :)

14. bet £35 Go Ahead Eagles @1.87 (v Helmond) W £29.93 (£85.25) :)

15. (a) bet £29 Over 2.5 Goals @1.74 (Eagles v Helmond) W
15. (b) bet £6 2-0 @10 L .....Total Won on bet: £14.39 (£99.64) :)

16. (a) bet £30 Kanad (place) @BSP (1.20 Fakenham) L
16. (b) bet £5 Kanad @6 L -£35 (£64.64) :(

17. bet £35 Strasbourg @1.85 (v Bastia) W £28.26 (£92.90) :)

18. bet £35 Hudderfield ht/ft @2.1 (v Tranmere) L -£35 (£57.90) :(

19. (a) lay £4.37 Mayor Of Kilcock @9 (2.40 Here) W £4.15
19. (b) lay £15.05 Stockport @3.6 (v Swindon) NR
19. (c) lay £43.50 Luton @1.9 (v Kettering) W £41.32......... Total Won on bet: £45.47 (£103.37) :)

Week 4
Profit: £103.37
Staked: £665
ROI: 15.6%
S/R: 12/19 (63%)

Total (4 weeks)
Start Bank: £1000
Stakes: 3%
Profit: £277.58
Staked: £2267
ROI: 12.2%
S/R: 40/72 (55.5%)

New Bank: £1277.58
New Stakes: £38

Result
Luton 0-1 Kettering

After 72 bets
longest winning streak = 6 bets
longest losing streak = 5 bets (x2)

average of 18 bets a week, that's roughly 18 hours of research

That's too much time when there are eight strategies to handle, so I have got to reduce the number of bets and improve the strike-rate. It would be nice to hit three consecutive winners at the start of the week, then this strategy can be put away for the rest of the week. A checklist to cross off each strategy when the £37.50 target is reached will be a good addition.

Anyway that's a wrap for the thread and my time is done here, my Betfair education is complete and I hope some of you have learnt a little along the way too. Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year.

good luck in the new year iqmj.

You have a good chance to make some money, not sure if you could live on it, but try not to go "on tilt" again.

I think Betfair drove me crazy this time last year. Good to be in a position now when I can look back and smile.

I see I was onto something with a nice ROI after 72 bets at the end of the thread. It shows that betting 1.6-2.5 shots can work if you have the time and patience.

Maybe I will try this approach again in the new year with a small bank but keep at it, just spend one hour a day finding the bets. I have the patience now to keep chipping away. My life has turned around ten-fold in a year and for that I am truly grateful.

I am no pro gambler and don't know if I ever will, or want to be for that matter. My ambitions have changed. My BF and other accounts read a positive figure for the first year of my life and for an ex-big losing gambler, it feels good to say.

I didn't have the time to continue with my "laying forum Mysic Megs" thread in the summer, but for anyone who was reading......look at NORN IRON's thread on horse racing "any football bets tonight".

The mystics must have picked 30 bets and I don't recall any of them winning. It's spooky how they keep selecting loser after loser, odds-ons most of em too.

Here's to a an even better 2011. SKÅL