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Rocket to the FACE
03 Nov 09 11:44
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Date Joined: 28 Oct 08
| Topic/replies: 13,471 | Blogger: Rocket to the FACE's blog
I still don't understand why scalping is seen as a less risky form of betting? You are supposed to swallow your losses and get out of a bet when the price moves against you and keep your bet for a small period of time when it is going your way but it all still boils down to having more winning trades than losing trades and I can't see which factor will account for this if you're just randomly entering markets and then getting out a few minutes/seconds later.

There are plenty of blogs on the subject and none of them address this, that I can see. It's as if they're relying on luck to give them more green trades than red trades.

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Replies: 27
By:
Mudflaps
When: 03 Nov 09 11:51
if you're just randomly entering markets

Not my thing but I suspect that a good scalper basis entry points on more than just randomness
By:
Hopeless bettor
When: 03 Nov 09 11:57
Don't they watch the match on a quick feed and get out whenever the ball goes near danger ? I would say you need good feeds and a lot of practice. I think it can work but it's not as easy as it sounds.
By:
millhouse
When: 03 Nov 09 14:15
The only upside of a Betfair outage is the knowledge that loads of these parasites will have done their stones...
By:
JPG
When: 03 Nov 09 15:16
Rocket,

If somebody is trading, then they are opening and closing their position (whether it be a profit, loss or break even). As Millhouse elegantly puts it, as soon as anyone puts money into the market, they are taking risk, even if the money is unmatched when it hits the market. However, if this exposure to the risk is relatively very short (compared to a longer term trader, opinion bettor or whatever,) then this IS a less risky activity/bet to have. Its still a risk, but less risky one all the same.

You are absolutely right that for it to be a profitable risk for someone take, then the winning amounts need to outweigh the losing ones. You are also absolutely right that if someone is doing this completely randomly, then the chances of it being a profitable risk decrease. However, it appears that you perceive all scalping trades to be "random." Im sure many are, but that doesnt mean all of them are does it?

When you say "It's as if they're relying on luck to give them more green trades than red trades" then that very tone of your comment suggets that it just appears like its "luck."

I hope this addresses this aspect for you.
By:
page-413
When: 03 Nov 09 15:43
trust me on this its not luck the skilled trader will be using WOM , LTP and many other sources to enter the market and exit the market ..

But of course it still has a risk an example that happened to me ..

Ok I back a fav for 1k at 2.4 I allways have a sliding stop loss set for 5 ticks , all ok so far yes ....... Wrong the horse nearing the stalls goes straight through the fence . Market drops straight through my stop loss dosent get matched ..

I am now in deep sshhhhhhhhite
By:
Trader11
When: 03 Nov 09 17:59
you're just randomly entering markets

thats the bit in which you are wrong. rest is spot on.
By:
chop180
When: 03 Nov 09 18:10
millhouse insults people because he is too stupid to be able to do it himself. And is therefore jealous of those who can.
By:
lippy
When: 03 Nov 09 22:09
Im a scalper on Australian racing. However i spend at least two hours before racing looking for horses which i consider will be the best ones to jump on.
I subscribe to several ratings services and use all the best tools available

There is some luck involved but by arming yourself with the best weapons you give yourself a much better chance

It is going that extra mile which sorts out the winners from the losers
By:
Trader11
When: 03 Nov 09 22:13
For me it is impossible to trade UK races. I just can't do it. Can't do tennis either. Only football I can manage.
Don't know if anyone really does UK races successfully.
By:
page-413
When: 04 Nov 09 07:04
Lots of people do it well Trader ..... I dont agree with you if I just tossed a coin [Adam Todd] made £200,000 K Scalping style... That would be random..


I dont I take in info mentioned ^ and enter then the market


This is not random ... any market has to be entered and exited at some point , Mine is not random
By:
sevey
When: 04 Nov 09 08:20
trader11 page 413 is spot on there are some people make their living trading on horses and there is people out there dont touch football so at the end of the day you stick to what you think you are best at and that is a fact
By:
Rocket to the FACE
When: 04 Nov 09 08:32
Cheers for the replies.

My next two qeustions are:

If it isn't luck and you're relying on some sort of information you've gathered to make the decision then you must have some degree of confidence that the price will move your way. If so, why stop after one or two ticks?

Secondly, if you're watching where the money is how can you account for random fluctuations that happen quite often that might go against a downward trend but only for a few minutes? For example, you've backed at 1.74 and want to get out at 1.72, what happens if the price jumps to 1.76 because somebody has come in with a bit of money that can't be predicted? Do you get out, which is what you should do, apparantly, or do you gamble that it is just a random fluctuation and not the start of an upward trend? If you traded for a small loss every time that happened would it still result in long term profit?

Doing it in-play is a bit easier to understand because you can watch what is happening that might cause a movement in the price but it also opens up other problems too I imagine.
By:
page-413
When: 04 Nov 09 08:37
spot on stick to what you are good at .. I have seen some really good guys at this become friends with one ...

This guy is not a mate but he is good watch him on you tube ..

Mike Baker ,,

he is doing what you do really Trader 11 [but you choose football]

big stakes.. he also incorporates a different technique which can be an edge if the market has some gaps in it ..

Interesting as well he dosent rate the WOM as a good guide anymore ..
By:
page-413
When: 04 Nov 09 08:43
Rocket ..answers

1 . small but often profit minimal exposure
2 . Can only speak for me I have a sliding stop loss set 5 ticks [gruss] I always get out never leave in running , only human error ..

back to question 1 .. sometimes the maket just drifts and you can clearly see this so I jump on as far as poss for the ride ..
By:
page-413
When: 04 Nov 09 08:47
To be honest I find scalping before the off boring ,I admire any one who grinds this out , I prefer football .

I have attemped to master 3 techiques in football this is how I make my money .

I enjoy talking with like minded people we can all learn and bring something to the table
By:
page-413
When: 04 Nov 09 08:50
sorry Rocket one last point , you made ..

When I do trade [scalp pre horses] I am watching UK racing before the off . You are right this does help
By:
sevey
When: 04 Nov 09 08:59
page 413 do you ever put in a keep bet after backing something earlier on
By:
page-413
When: 04 Nov 09 09:17
Hi mate no it dosent suit my style ,, I am not saying its wrong heres why

there is no guarantee that the keep bet will be matched , the market may move against you ..

The way I work I am matched before the off .. last night I would of been [see other post ] on R madrid at 2.7 1 min in they are 2.6 bingo money gone ........

No good for me waiting to get matched I would miss the steam in

GL
By:
sevey
When: 04 Nov 09 09:21
cheers 413
By:
lippy
When: 05 Nov 09 00:12
It certainly hard work , need a very high boredom threshold
By:
hollywobbly
When: 05 Nov 09 01:19
certain types at say 1.8 are more likely to drift badly than be smashed in further
By:
lippy
When: 05 Nov 09 03:06
Four hours since my last post , have barely left my chair . Four hours without a break , grinding away on australian racing just to make 90 pounds. All the while knowing that one slip or lapse in concentration could cost ten times that amount.

Lovely sunny day outside , would be great to be out on the deckchair with an ice cream
By:
page-413
When: 05 Nov 09 07:42
lol lippy sunny out side ??? were are you
By:
Five By Five
When: 05 Nov 09 07:47
Slightly off topic but aus racing must be hard to scalp/trade on? On the odd occassion I'm up in early hours of morning (uk) and look at the markets there is little to no money available to back/lay on pretty much all horses, certainly nothing like the uk markets.
By:
page-413
When: 05 Nov 09 07:47
I suppose the clue is in the post lol .. I re-read Australia
By:
page-413
When: 05 Nov 09 07:48
correct 5
By:
lippy
When: 05 Nov 09 16:06

Five By Five 05 Nov 21:47
Slightly off topic but aus racing must be hard to scalp/trade on? On the odd occassion I'm up in early hours of morning (uk) and look at the markets there is little to no money available to back/lay on pretty much all horses, certainly nothing like the uk markets.


Very true , stakes have to be kept smaller , however the poor liquidity is often made up for by bigger price movements.
Yesterday i got 222 on at 6.00 and it quickly went to 4.4 locked in seventy pounds on that one horse. Thats the exception though , its usually just a few quid per race.
If i average 5 pound a race im happy

Liquidity is slowly improving though , its where the english markets were five years ago. The small country meetings are still largely untradeable but there usually a couple of meeetings a day with enough
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