New Posts For Thread: Overstaking...is it the biggest downfall of most punters?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/31867339/overstakingis-it-the-biggest-downfall-of-most-puntersI think it probably is.Scepticism is the attitude of doubting knowledge claims, questioning evidence, or suspending judgment due to the inadequacy of evidence, often requiring rigorous proof.You need to do your own analysis.If you take opinions offered by newspapers or webhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/31867339/overstakingis-it-the-biggest-downfall-of-most-punters?post_id=565292809#565292809Scepticism is the attitude of doubting knowledge claims, questioning evidence, or suspending judgment due to the inadequacy of evidence, often requiring rigorous proof.You need to do your own analysis.If you take opinions offered by newspapers or webThu, 26 Mar 2026 19:36:17 -0500* The breeder gets the 10k that the horse was worth and an extra 20k, and the agent gets 20k and a commission on 50k.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/31867339/overstakingis-it-the-biggest-downfall-of-most-punters?post_id=565292801#565292801* The breeder gets the 10k that the horse was worth and an extra 20k, and the agent gets 20k and a commission on 50k.Thu, 26 Mar 2026 19:17:56 -0500EscapeeWith my pro punter hat on.... it's all about the rule of large numbers, I was curious if you had any "large numbers" (i.e. 1,000's of races) insight into multi generational "pedigree"The insight is on foalmare.com and the data sample was 159,2https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/31867339/overstakingis-it-the-biggest-downfall-of-most-punters?post_id=565292799#565292799EscapeeWith my pro punter hat on.... it's all about the rule of large numbers, I was curious if you had any "large numbers" (i.e. 1,000's of races) insight into multi generational "pedigree"The insight is on foalmare.com and the data sample was 159,2Thu, 26 Mar 2026 19:15:16 -0500I thank you for your extensive reply kincsem, unfortunately (for me) I glaze over, I've tried reading it twice, butwhilst I know there is some sense and insight... it escapes me.If you can download £money from the internet based on reading 3, 6, orhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/31867339/overstakingis-it-the-biggest-downfall-of-most-punters?post_id=565291359#565291359I thank you for your extensive reply kincsem, unfortunately (for me) I glaze over, I've tried reading it twice, butwhilst I know there is some sense and insight... it escapes me.If you can download £money from the internet based on reading 3, 6, orWed, 25 Mar 2026 19:55:26 -0500I know the thread is about overstaking.I hijacked it to talk about something else - an edge.You are overstaking if you are betting on what everyone knows, what you read in the racing papers and on racing websites.The value is gone, everyone knows whahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/31867339/overstakingis-it-the-biggest-downfall-of-most-punters?post_id=565289551#565289551I know the thread is about overstaking.I hijacked it to talk about something else - an edge.You are overstaking if you are betting on what everyone knows, what you read in the racing papers and on racing websites.The value is gone, everyone knows whaTue, 24 Mar 2026 11:43:26 -0500I wrote a long reply of about 40 lines and when I hit "post reply" it disappeared.Perhaps the mods want to review it or binned it.You need a six generation pedigree of a horse and look at the duplicated ancestors in it (the duplication groups).You wohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/31867339/overstakingis-it-the-biggest-downfall-of-most-punters?post_id=565288989#565288989I wrote a long reply of about 40 lines and when I hit "post reply" it disappeared.Perhaps the mods want to review it or binned it.You need a six generation pedigree of a horse and look at the duplicated ancestors in it (the duplication groups).You woTue, 24 Mar 2026 02:31:36 -0500I'll start with what I don't look for.(1) forget black type on the dam line. I have nothing against it but many of the horses in the catalogue (by the dam, by the 2nd dam, by the 3rd dam, and even by the 4th dam have nothing in common with the sale lhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/31867339/overstakingis-it-the-biggest-downfall-of-most-punters?post_id=565288969#565288969I'll start with what I don't look for.(1) forget black type on the dam line. I have nothing against it but many of the horses in the catalogue (by the dam, by the 2nd dam, by the 3rd dam, and even by the 4th dam have nothing in common with the sale lTue, 24 Mar 2026 02:10:02 -0500kincsem what do you look for in pedigree data?I sometimes used to follow the 2&3yo foals of a star horse, but to go back 6 or even 10 generations??I wouldn't know what I was looking forhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/31867339/overstakingis-it-the-biggest-downfall-of-most-punters?post_id=565283609#565283609kincsem what do you look for in pedigree data?I sometimes used to follow the 2&3yo foals of a star horse, but to go back 6 or even 10 generations??I wouldn't know what I was looking forFri, 20 Mar 2026 07:59:25 -0500This might sound like a boast or the greatest aftertiming ever.Fwiw I think I have an edge in horseracing that few have, or few consider, or few would do the work to gain the edge.I analyse the pedigrees to six generations (occasionally ten generatiohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/31867339/overstakingis-it-the-biggest-downfall-of-most-punters?post_id=565281445#565281445This might sound like a boast or the greatest aftertiming ever.Fwiw I think I have an edge in horseracing that few have, or few consider, or few would do the work to gain the edge.I analyse the pedigrees to six generations (occasionally ten generatioWed, 18 Mar 2026 13:44:31 -0500Imagine that you had a bank of £100 and you were offered bets on a fair dice that paid out 6-1 if you picked the right number. You could play the game as long as you wanted, unless you lost your bank. The correct staking would be Kelly, as this woulhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/31867339/overstakingis-it-the-biggest-downfall-of-most-punters?post_id=565280919#565280919Imagine that you had a bank of £100 and you were offered bets on a fair dice that paid out 6-1 if you picked the right number. You could play the game as long as you wanted, unless you lost your bank. The correct staking would be Kelly, as this woulWed, 18 Mar 2026 07:30:14 -0500