New Posts For Thread: Basic maths questionhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30917413/basic-maths-questionI have two models (A and B) and each model predicts the following odds for what turns out to be the winning outcome in six different markets:1.1232 (A) v 1.617 (B)17.8695 v 2.201713.0622 v 2.7100616.5113 v 9.732521.1035 v 1.168021.365 v 1.1809I don't* Should say select COLUMNS A to D, not rows sorry. And don't forget to let the spreadsheet know that the first row is column names and should'nt be sorted.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30917413/basic-maths-question?post_id=552619707#552619707* Should say select COLUMNS A to D, not rows sorry. And don't forget to let the spreadsheet know that the first row is column names and should'nt be sorted.Fri, 18 Aug 2017 16:54:47 -0500What I do is put them in a spreadsheet. column A is reference , B is P(win model A), C is P(win model B), D is outcome (0 or 1)Put a running total of cols B,C,D into F,G,H - using a formula such as col F(row) = F(row-1) + B(row), except the first dahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30917413/basic-maths-question?post_id=552619587#552619587What I do is put them in a spreadsheet. column A is reference , B is P(win model A), C is P(win model B), D is outcome (0 or 1)Put a running total of cols B,C,D into F,G,H - using a formula such as col F(row) = F(row-1) + B(row), except the first daFri, 18 Aug 2017 16:35:38 -0500You could evaluate it as trinary, but that makes hardly any difference.Obviously, the probabilities of the 3 outcomes must add up to 100%. But that's not relevant to predictive accuraccy.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30917413/basic-maths-question?post_id=552588681#552588681You could evaluate it as trinary, but that makes hardly any difference.Obviously, the probabilities of the 3 outcomes must add up to 100%. But that's not relevant to predictive accuraccy.Mon, 14 Aug 2017 18:15:30 -0500IMO, the odds are irrelevant if you are betting on one of the three possible results in a football match. It's a simple binary outcome. The bet either wins or loses.If you were considering only one outcome per event then you could say it was binary bhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30917413/basic-maths-question?post_id=552588471#552588471IMO, the odds are irrelevant if you are betting on one of the three possible results in a football match. It's a simple binary outcome. The bet either wins or loses.If you were considering only one outcome per event then you could say it was binary bMon, 14 Aug 2017 17:25:32 -0500IMO, the odds are irrelevant if you are betting on one of the three possible results in a football match. It's a simple binary outcome. The bet either wins or loses.Thus, the model that assigns the highest probability (on average) to the actual outcohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30917413/basic-maths-question?post_id=552588057#552588057IMO, the odds are irrelevant if you are betting on one of the three possible results in a football match. It's a simple binary outcome. The bet either wins or loses.Thus, the model that assigns the highest probability (on average) to the actual outcoMon, 14 Aug 2017 16:27:07 -0500A quick and dirty way to do it and get a rough result is simply to convert each odds to a probability using 1/odds - so odds of 2 is probability 0.5 then encode the results as 0s and 1s (1 = win). Then you average your results (9 losses 1 win = averahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30917413/basic-maths-question?post_id=552585487#552585487A quick and dirty way to do it and get a rough result is simply to convert each odds to a probability using 1/odds - so odds of 2 is probability 0.5 then encode the results as 0s and 1s (1 = win). Then you average your results (9 losses 1 win = averaMon, 14 Aug 2017 11:24:01 -0500Glad to hear it's not a basic problem, I assumed it was and I was just being dim!Ignore the sample size, I will be testing hundreds of outcomes but just included six here for brevity. This is a football model and I'm testing it for every match overhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30917413/basic-maths-question?post_id=552583233#552583233Glad to hear it's not a basic problem, I assumed it was and I was just being dim!Ignore the sample size, I will be testing hundreds of outcomes but just included six here for brevity. This is a football model and I'm testing it for every match overMon, 14 Aug 2017 03:35:21 -0500but if he means better as more accurate, then that doesn't work as the actual odds of the first event could be 2, so the higher odds are more accurate.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30917413/basic-maths-question?post_id=552574609#552574609but if he means better as more accurate, then that doesn't work as the actual odds of the first event could be 2, so the higher odds are more accurate.Sun, 13 Aug 2017 04:22:15 -0500If by 'better' you mean the shortest predicted odds for the correct outcome, then Sum the predictions/number of predictions. The lower value being the best predictor.I assume you are not discarding incorrect predictions as that would completely changhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30917413/basic-maths-question?post_id=552560921#552560921If by 'better' you mean the shortest predicted odds for the correct outcome, then Sum the predictions/number of predictions. The lower value being the best predictor.I assume you are not discarding incorrect predictions as that would completely changFri, 11 Aug 2017 18:34:22 -0500No way to tell. No way at all. Definitely not enough information there. Entirely possible - from the data you've given, in the absence of any other - that model A is exactly right every time or equally that model B is. And as aye robot says, farhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30917413/basic-maths-question?post_id=552546787#552546787No way to tell. No way at all. Definitely not enough information there. Entirely possible - from the data you've given, in the absence of any other - that model A is exactly right every time or equally that model B is. And as aye robot says, farThu, 10 Aug 2017 10:33:03 -0500