New Posts For Thread: How accurate is any given in-play price?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30861943/how-accurate-is-any-given-in-play-priceIf I take a price at any time within a game (accounting sufficient liquidity e.g. a top football match), does that price generally reflect the true odds of winning at the time, in the same way that we often find the pre-game price is generally accuraLike anything else y[u]ou can get a probability wrong or you might not know what it is, but the fact that you don't (or even can't) know it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.[/u]Pure probability is not guess work---it should be the outcome of consideringhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30861943/how-accurate-is-any-given-in-play-price?post_id=551956799#551956799Like anything else y[u]ou can get a probability wrong or you might not know what it is, but the fact that you don't (or even can't) know it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.[/u]Pure probability is not guess work---it should be the outcome of consideringSat, 20 May 2017 22:38:51 -0500CoachbusterIn part yes---but also the commonly occurring rorting at some level --micro bets or otherwiseCoachbuster and I are playing tennis and we privately collude that I will give him a headstart in first half of game and he will let me make a cohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30861943/how-accurate-is-any-given-in-play-price?post_id=551956791#551956791CoachbusterIn part yes---but also the commonly occurring rorting at some level --micro bets or otherwiseCoachbuster and I are playing tennis and we privately collude that I will give him a headstart in first half of game and he will let me make a coSat, 20 May 2017 22:26:24 -0500what Henryluca probably means is the emotional side to gambling - sentiment betting . It's all related to supply and demand ,where the odds aren't true . Most of us have knowingly bought poor value to reduce riskhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30861943/how-accurate-is-any-given-in-play-price?post_id=551952383#551952383what Henryluca probably means is the emotional side to gambling - sentiment betting . It's all related to supply and demand ,where the odds aren't true . Most of us have knowingly bought poor value to reduce riskSat, 20 May 2017 09:36:15 -0500All the jargon about probabilities etc doesn't apply when their is gambling and humansIt's not jargon, it's maths and it applies to EVERYTHING. Coin flipping and roulette are page one in the ladybird book of probability. Probability goes far beyond thttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30861943/how-accurate-is-any-given-in-play-price?post_id=551950443#551950443All the jargon about probabilities etc doesn't apply when their is gambling and humansIt's not jargon, it's maths and it applies to EVERYTHING. Coin flipping and roulette are page one in the ladybird book of probability. Probability goes far beyond tSat, 20 May 2017 02:44:05 -0500If I take a price at any time within a game (accounting sufficient liquidity e.g. a top football match), does that price generally reflect the true odds of winning at the time,Absolutely not---sporting events are not random roulette wheel type eventshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30861943/how-accurate-is-any-given-in-play-price?post_id=551950359#551950359If I take a price at any time within a game (accounting sufficient liquidity e.g. a top football match), does that price generally reflect the true odds of winning at the time,Absolutely not---sporting events are not random roulette wheel type eventsSat, 20 May 2017 01:34:54 -0500I agree to a certain extent with pxb, there isn't going to be enough (historical and current) statistical data to precisely define an exact 'true price' or probability of an outcome like a football match, the data-set is too small and chance plays ahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30861943/how-accurate-is-any-given-in-play-price?post_id=551949335#551949335I agree to a certain extent with pxb, there isn't going to be enough (historical and current) statistical data to precisely define an exact 'true price' or probability of an outcome like a football match, the data-set is too small and chance plays aFri, 19 May 2017 18:09:58 -0500Conventional probability doesn't apply to the outcome.Probability still applies. You don't need successive identical events for probability to apply. As I explained above probability is a property of information not of an event. Probability theory mohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30861943/how-accurate-is-any-given-in-play-price?post_id=551943665#551943665Conventional probability doesn't apply to the outcome.Probability still applies. You don't need successive identical events for probability to apply. As I explained above probability is a property of information not of an event. Probability theory moFri, 19 May 2017 04:06:57 -0500No sporting event is ever repeated with the same starting conditions, in the way a coin toss would be (although a couple come close like snooker). Conventional probability doesn't apply to the outcome. Hence, the 'myth'. Which is not to say, some cauhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30861943/how-accurate-is-any-given-in-play-price?post_id=551943329#551943329No sporting event is ever repeated with the same starting conditions, in the way a coin toss would be (although a couple come close like snooker). Conventional probability doesn't apply to the outcome. Hence, the 'myth'. Which is not to say, some cauFri, 19 May 2017 02:45:48 -0500I think pxb is not really suggesting that probability is a defunct concept, rather that the complexities of live sport make it very difficult to assign correct probabilities to. My view is that this is only true up to a point and that in some situatihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30861943/how-accurate-is-any-given-in-play-price?post_id=551943179#551943179I think pxb is not really suggesting that probability is a defunct concept, rather that the complexities of live sport make it very difficult to assign correct probabilities to. My view is that this is only true up to a point and that in some situatiFri, 19 May 2017 02:00:41 -0500Anyone who can show that probability is a 'myth' shouldn't be wasting their time here - they should be winning a Fields medal and changing the world by overturning a foundational concept in mathematics. The whole of statistics and most modern physichttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30861943/how-accurate-is-any-given-in-play-price?post_id=551937365#551937365Anyone who can show that probability is a 'myth' shouldn't be wasting their time here - they should be winning a Fields medal and changing the world by overturning a foundational concept in mathematics. The whole of statistics and most modern physicThu, 18 May 2017 10:17:42 -0500