New Posts For Thread: How long untill your "confident" in a "system"???https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30727591/how-long-untill-your-confident-in-a-systemThis isn't a "look at me" post, well maybe a little ha , but am genuinely interested from anyone experienced in systems how my figures hold up and how long before u would feel confident in playing it or any system for decent stakes? All Pre Race LayNo idea how you arrive at lays, and I am biased towards BACKING.High odds winners do happen, especially in mixed age h/c races types. If you have been laying in other race types you are bound to get long runs of successful lays, BUT if you don't havehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30727591/how-long-untill-your-confident-in-a-system?post_id=550595957#550595957No idea how you arrive at lays, and I am biased towards BACKING.High odds winners do happen, especially in mixed age h/c races types. If you have been laying in other race types you are bound to get long runs of successful lays, BUT if you don't haveWed, 07 Dec 2016 13:54:46 -0600One of the best posts on the subject that I've ever read from zooot there!My quest for answers over several decades has failed, but not for the want of trying, so I think the OP will need to stick with his system for several years more. However, by thttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30727591/how-long-untill-your-confident-in-a-system?post_id=550562913#550562913One of the best posts on the subject that I've ever read from zooot there!My quest for answers over several decades has failed, but not for the want of trying, so I think the OP will need to stick with his system for several years more. However, by tSat, 03 Dec 2016 04:38:56 -0600The answer is that if it is not based on detailed form study you can never be confident long term because the market can adjust at any time.But to be a bit more helpful:- It will be thousands of bets over an extended time.- The longer the odds the mhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30727591/how-long-untill-your-confident-in-a-system?post_id=550561741#550561741The answer is that if it is not based on detailed form study you can never be confident long term because the market can adjust at any time.But to be a bit more helpful:- It will be thousands of bets over an extended time.- The longer the odds the mFri, 02 Dec 2016 18:54:47 -0600how is it going now?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30727591/how-long-untill-your-confident-in-a-system?post_id=550509663#550509663how is it going now?Fri, 25 Nov 2016 16:04:45 -0600better off not doing e/w,looking back at bets over the yearhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30727591/how-long-untill-your-confident-in-a-system?post_id=549781429#549781429better off not doing e/w,looking back at bets over the yearSun, 28 Aug 2016 04:39:01 -0500Famous expression stood the test of time.Give me a man and his systemI'll have his moneyand he'll still have his system.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30727591/how-long-untill-your-confident-in-a-system?post_id=549780479#549780479Famous expression stood the test of time.Give me a man and his systemI'll have his moneyand he'll still have his system.Sat, 27 Aug 2016 20:31:54 -0500dont worry your short term results are meaningless.....much more important: you created new t-shaped data that will make enough noise to extract a bunch of systems from a fresh set of quantitative analystshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30727591/how-long-untill-your-confident-in-a-system?post_id=549780057#549780057dont worry your short term results are meaningless.....much more important: you created new t-shaped data that will make enough noise to extract a bunch of systems from a fresh set of quantitative analystsSat, 27 Aug 2016 19:06:51 -0500wish i never posted this for two reasons1- had my worst day the next day - 26.5 pts2- keep popping back on and looking blankly/dumbly at replies, which really could be Swahili to me!https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30727591/how-long-untill-your-confident-in-a-system?post_id=549766957#549766957wish i never posted this for two reasons1- had my worst day the next day - 26.5 pts2- keep popping back on and looking blankly/dumbly at replies, which really could be Swahili to me!Fri, 26 Aug 2016 11:11:26 -0500after that you have to add 17.25 equal slices of implied probability bands and then multiply your backtest data results with the probability (zero) of it reoccurring in the futurehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30727591/how-long-untill-your-confident-in-a-system?post_id=549764359#549764359after that you have to add 17.25 equal slices of implied probability bands and then multiply your backtest data results with the probability (zero) of it reoccurring in the futureThu, 25 Aug 2016 20:57:23 -0500So here's one way of doing what you want to do - or at least to do what I'd want to do, which is determine if you're taking value bets or not.(I'm describing this for back bets because it's simpler, you'll have no trouble inverting it).Divide your behttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30727591/how-long-untill-your-confident-in-a-system?post_id=549759125#549759125So here's one way of doing what you want to do - or at least to do what I'd want to do, which is determine if you're taking value bets or not.(I'm describing this for back bets because it's simpler, you'll have no trouble inverting it).Divide your beThu, 25 Aug 2016 07:13:35 -0500