New Posts For Thread: Maths help EXCELhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30581571/maths-help-excelWill post this on the general betting also, but here we go. Normally thrive on this type of question, but been pulling all nighters all week and brain a little fried.What I am looking for is system testing help, in regards to variance, and confidencThanks for the advice, but been here a decade, and if I wasn't happy to throw money down on a theory, I wouldn't be here.Your point about Archie, is that effectively could lose the next 12 bets, and it would still tell me I was on a big winner...Is thttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30581571/maths-help-excel?post_id=546126783#546126783Thanks for the advice, but been here a decade, and if I wasn't happy to throw money down on a theory, I wouldn't be here.Your point about Archie, is that effectively could lose the next 12 bets, and it would still tell me I was on a big winner...Is tMon, 07 Sep 2015 07:58:28 -0500you could mess about with archie by changing the expected win figure.So you have 49 runs, 21 wins, .246 average expected win probability.If the expected win is changed to .3 (expected wins 14.7) you have an archi of 3.85, so a 95% chance that the acthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30581571/maths-help-excel?post_id=546119093#546119093you could mess about with archie by changing the expected win figure.So you have 49 runs, 21 wins, .246 average expected win probability.If the expected win is changed to .3 (expected wins 14.7) you have an archi of 3.85, so a 95% chance that the actSun, 06 Sep 2015 12:45:25 -050010.93823 needed winners (before commission) Is all in the opening post. Not sure where you are getting 7.5 from? The Archie Score? To work out the Archie score though, you need the odds. It is based purely on that...(runners x (winners – expechttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30581571/maths-help-excel?post_id=546118219#54611821910.93823 needed winners (before commission) Is all in the opening post. Not sure where you are getting 7.5 from? The Archie Score? To work out the Archie score though, you need the odds. It is based purely on that...(runners x (winners – expecSun, 06 Sep 2015 11:40:00 -0500which looking at your OP 44 x .248 = 10.9?btw are these live results? ie not back tested?Also all archie says is that the "profit" is not due to luck, it doesn't specify what the actual odds are.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30581571/maths-help-excel?post_id=546117375#546117375which looking at your OP 44 x .248 = 10.9?btw are these live results? ie not back tested?Also all archie says is that the "profit" is not due to luck, it doesn't specify what the actual odds are.Sun, 06 Sep 2015 10:35:57 -0500Think archie is best used in conjunction with a sample size factor. The recommended one is adding together the probabilities until they total at least 10. ie 20 even money shots (with 16 winning would be the equivalent of your 7.5).https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30581571/maths-help-excel?post_id=546117301#546117301Think archie is best used in conjunction with a sample size factor. The recommended one is adding together the probabilities until they total at least 10. ie 20 even money shots (with 16 winning would be the equivalent of your 7.5).Sun, 06 Sep 2015 10:30:08 -0500It does for the record have an Archie score of 7.5, suggesting .006% probability that it was luck. But it seems ridiculous over that small a series that would be anywhere near accurate. Only learnt about that today, but don't put much faith in it.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30581571/maths-help-excel?post_id=546116591#546116591It does for the record have an Archie score of 7.5, suggesting .006% probability that it was luck. But it seems ridiculous over that small a series that would be anywhere near accurate. Only learnt about that today, but don't put much faith in it.Sun, 06 Sep 2015 09:27:32 -0500I mean is there a way to show the range that the edge would be, based on that information. I meant by that, -.5 as in losing 50% of everything you put on, but it was just a random figure.Not sure how to explain it any clearer.If you were to use anyhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30581571/maths-help-excel?post_id=546116547#546116547I mean is there a way to show the range that the edge would be, based on that information. I meant by that, -.5 as in losing 50% of everything you put on, but it was just a random figure.Not sure how to explain it any clearer.If you were to use anySun, 06 Sep 2015 09:24:20 -0500I give up.Do you mean edge greater than -0.5 and less than 2.5 ?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30581571/maths-help-excel?post_id=546115737#546115737I give up.Do you mean edge greater than -0.5 and less than 2.5 ?Sun, 06 Sep 2015 07:52:54 -0500Oops. That was supposed to say... edge >-.5 and >2.5https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30581571/maths-help-excel?post_id=546115721#546115721Oops. That was supposed to say... edge >-.5 and >2.5Sun, 06 Sep 2015 07:51:53 -0500Can you have a go at phrasing the question more clearly? It's a bit hard to see exactly what you want to know.Also, do you mean edge >-.5 and [b]https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30581571/maths-help-excel?post_id=546115715#546115715Can you have a go at phrasing the question more clearly? It's a bit hard to see exactly what you want to know.Also, do you mean edge >-.5 and [b]Sun, 06 Sep 2015 07:51:21 -0500