New Posts For Thread: Maths Questionhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30445521/maths-questionIf there is a 60% chance of A being higher than B and a 60% chance of B being higher than C what chance should it be that A is higher than C assuming a random distribution?For what it's worth and going off on a tangent, I think the athletic performance of men in sport is much more consistent than that of women. This view came about when thinking about performances that were well below what I expected. It dawned on mehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30445521/maths-question?post_id=543683535#543683535For what it's worth and going off on a tangent, I think the athletic performance of men in sport is much more consistent than that of women. This view came about when thinking about performances that were well below what I expected. It dawned on meTue, 24 Feb 2015 04:55:02 -0600Cheers for your input juk. It was just a random thought that crept into my head loosely related to something I was betting on. If I thought it was going to be much use I wouldn't have posted it on here. I just picked darts because it seemed the behttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30445521/maths-question?post_id=543683483#543683483Cheers for your input juk. It was just a random thought that crept into my head loosely related to something I was betting on. If I thought it was going to be much use I wouldn't have posted it on here. I just picked darts because it seemed the beTue, 24 Feb 2015 04:45:29 -0600Here is the solution assuming the distribution of performances is normal:http://oi58.tinypic.com/5mh2dv.jpghttp://oi59.tinypic.com/mvj3us.jpgP(A>C) = ~69.4%To better visualize what's going on, here is a plot of the distribution of performances for A,https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30445521/maths-question?post_id=543682993#543682993Here is the solution assuming the distribution of performances is normal:http://oi58.tinypic.com/5mh2dv.jpghttp://oi59.tinypic.com/mvj3us.jpgP(A>C) = ~69.4%To better visualize what's going on, here is a plot of the distribution of performances for A,Tue, 24 Feb 2015 03:22:10 -0600Another modelA is a random number between 11 and 60, B is a random number between 6 and 55 and C is a random number between 1 and 50.So for example 10% of the time A is 56-60 and is always higher than B, 10%* B is 6-10 and always lower than A, the rehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30445521/maths-question?post_id=543682923#543682923Another modelA is a random number between 11 and 60, B is a random number between 6 and 55 and C is a random number between 1 and 50.So for example 10% of the time A is 56-60 and is always higher than B, 10%* B is 6-10 and always lower than A, the reTue, 24 Feb 2015 03:08:30 -0600I should add that the above assumes that the distribution of performances for A, B and C are all independent of each other.For something like darts this is probably fine, but for certain other games it may well not be. For example:* A could have a cehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30445521/maths-question?post_id=543681071#543681071I should add that the above assumes that the distribution of performances for A, B and C are all independent of each other.For something like darts this is probably fine, but for certain other games it may well not be. For example:* A could have a ceMon, 23 Feb 2015 18:56:46 -0600LOL, I don't seem to have much luck with posting to these forums .Here are the URLs of the images that should have been in the post above:http://oi57.tinypic.com/xc1at.jpghttp://oi59.tinypic.com/307z4g5.jpghttp://oi61.tinypic.com/2a4rd3a.jpghttp://oihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30445521/maths-question?post_id=543680743#543680743LOL, I don't seem to have much luck with posting to these forums .Here are the URLs of the images that should have been in the post above:http://oi57.tinypic.com/xc1at.jpghttp://oi59.tinypic.com/307z4g5.jpghttp://oi61.tinypic.com/2a4rd3a.jpghttp://oiMon, 23 Feb 2015 18:20:48 -0600It depends on the distribution of performances for the players. In general you would first need to solve:(where f(x) is the PDF and F(x) is the CDF of the chosen distribution respectively)and then evaluate:So for example, assuming the performances arhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30445521/maths-question?post_id=543680703#543680703It depends on the distribution of performances for the players. In general you would first need to solve:(where f(x) is the PDF and F(x) is the CDF of the chosen distribution respectively)and then evaluate:So for example, assuming the performances arMon, 23 Feb 2015 18:17:08 -0600not sure mine is right will think some morehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30445521/maths-question?post_id=543679191#543679191not sure mine is right will think some moreMon, 23 Feb 2015 16:04:09 -0600Another model:A chucks a dart at a board of size 100 - 20% of the board he wins, the other 80% of the board it's 50/50 between him and B.B chucks a dart at board size 80 - 20% of the remaining board (area=16) he wins, the other 80% ( area=64) it's 50https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30445521/maths-question?post_id=543678757#543678757Another model:A chucks a dart at a board of size 100 - 20% of the board he wins, the other 80% of the board it's 50/50 between him and B.B chucks a dart at board size 80 - 20% of the remaining board (area=16) he wins, the other 80% ( area=64) it's 50Mon, 23 Feb 2015 15:34:28 -0600My model would be A is a random number between 1 and 50000 so average 25000, B is a random number between 1 and 20000 so av 10000, and C is a random number between 1 and 8000 so av 4000.So the average number drawn fits the criteria and there is a 84https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30445521/maths-question?post_id=543678413#543678413My model would be A is a random number between 1 and 50000 so average 25000, B is a random number between 1 and 20000 so av 10000, and C is a random number between 1 and 8000 so av 4000.So the average number drawn fits the criteria and there is a 84Mon, 23 Feb 2015 15:08:58 -0600