New Posts For Thread: Changing Odds questionhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30421389/changing-odds-question“A punter might believe that a cut of evens to 8/11 is inferior to dropping from 6/1 to 5/1. In actual fact, the latter is marginally worse.”I don’t understand how going from 6 to 1 to 5 to 1 is marginally worse than cutting from evens to 8/11An 8/11 chance represents 58% of the theoretical market, not a insignificant figure, whereas a 5/1or a 6/1 chance may be 4th or 5th in the book, Regards the bigger prices (5/1 and 6/1) they maybe running unbacked, not so the 8/11 shot whichcould be dhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30421389/changing-odds-question?post_id=543214765#543214765An 8/11 chance represents 58% of the theoretical market, not a insignificant figure, whereas a 5/1or a 6/1 chance may be 4th or 5th in the book, Regards the bigger prices (5/1 and 6/1) they maybe running unbacked, not so the 8/11 shot whichcould be dThu, 22 Jan 2015 12:00:16 -0600Also, as an aside, I do not think that most people, myself included, can judge their edge with the granular accuracy necessary to utilize a full kelly strategy. Full Kelly is borderline insane betting for the majority of punters.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30421389/changing-odds-question?post_id=543209971#543209971Also, as an aside, I do not think that most people, myself included, can judge their edge with the granular accuracy necessary to utilize a full kelly strategy. Full Kelly is borderline insane betting for the majority of punters.Thu, 22 Jan 2015 05:58:26 -0600Added value post. Thank you.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30421389/changing-odds-question?post_id=543209889#543209889Added value post. Thank you.Thu, 22 Jan 2015 05:50:18 -0600“A punter might believe that a cut of evens to 8/11 is inferior to dropping from 6/1 to 5/1. In actual fact, the latter is marginally worse.”That's very simplistic. If you can get 2.00 on a 1.727 shot, that is much more valuable that getting 7 ohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30421389/changing-odds-question?post_id=543205049#543205049“A punter might believe that a cut of evens to 8/11 is inferior to dropping from 6/1 to 5/1. In actual fact, the latter is marginally worse.”That's very simplistic. If you can get 2.00 on a 1.727 shot, that is much more valuable that getting 7 oWed, 21 Jan 2015 17:39:50 -0600Dave,That answers my question. Thank you very much.Good luck and good trading.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30421389/changing-odds-question?post_id=543182317#543182317Dave,That answers my question. Thank you very much.Good luck and good trading.Tue, 20 Jan 2015 07:39:02 -0600If the true odds are evens and 6-1 thenwith the 8/11 shot you get a long term return, for 1 unit bet, of 1.73 x .5 = .86with the 5-1 shot you get 6 x .14 = .85https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30421389/changing-odds-question?post_id=543181949#543181949If the true odds are evens and 6-1 thenwith the 8/11 shot you get a long term return, for 1 unit bet, of 1.73 x .5 = .86with the 5-1 shot you get 6 x .14 = .85Tue, 20 Jan 2015 06:48:19 -0600Hi Ken. Thanks for getting back to me. Still confused though. How is a 3% change in book "marginally worse" than an 8% change in book? That is what I am not getting but perhaps I am not understanding the author's point and/or looking at it from thehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30421389/changing-odds-question?post_id=543169519#543169519Hi Ken. Thanks for getting back to me. Still confused though. How is a 3% change in book "marginally worse" than an 8% change in book? That is what I am not getting but perhaps I am not understanding the author's point and/or looking at it from theMon, 19 Jan 2015 09:57:59 -06001/1 is 50% of the book,whereas 8/11 is 58%.5/1 is 17% whereas 6/1 is 14%.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30421389/changing-odds-question?post_id=543169313#5431693131/1 is 50% of the book,whereas 8/11 is 58%.5/1 is 17% whereas 6/1 is 14%.Mon, 19 Jan 2015 09:40:21 -0600“A punter might believe that a cut of evens to 8/11 is inferior to dropping from 6/1 to 5/1. In actual fact, the latter is marginally worse.”I don’t understand how going from 6 to 1 to 5 to 1 is marginally worse than cutting from evens to 8/11https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30421389/changing-odds-question?post_id=543169217#543169217“A punter might believe that a cut of evens to 8/11 is inferior to dropping from 6/1 to 5/1. In actual fact, the latter is marginally worse.”I don’t understand how going from 6 to 1 to 5 to 1 is marginally worse than cutting from evens to 8/11Mon, 19 Jan 2015 09:30:58 -0600