New Posts For Thread: Chester draw bias - how much can I lose?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30347141/chester-draw-bias---how-much-can-i-loseConcentrating on stalls one and two. Hoping for some profit in win and place markets.3.05 Kimberella around 6.8.3.40 Shamas Song around 3.5,4.15 Arty Campbell around 14.5,4.50 Potentate around 4.6.1 and 2 don't fare so well on soft or heavy at distances up to a mile in races of ten plus runners. Beyond a mile they start to show losses with 2 doing slightly better.3 does best of the 345 group. Couldn't make a case for backing them blind howeverhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30347141/chester-draw-bias---how-much-can-i-lose?post_id=541641077#5416410771 and 2 don't fare so well on soft or heavy at distances up to a mile in races of ten plus runners. Beyond a mile they start to show losses with 2 doing slightly better.3 does best of the 345 group. Couldn't make a case for backing them blind howeverMon, 29 Sep 2014 00:50:24 -0500Trap 1 or two.3.05 Potent Embrace - 4th of 153.40 Bikini Island - gubbed at 1.01Placed at 1.534.50 Newstead Abbey - Placed at 2.63https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30347141/chester-draw-bias---how-much-can-i-lose?post_id=541620619#541620619Trap 1 or two.3.05 Potent Embrace - 4th of 153.40 Bikini Island - gubbed at 1.01Placed at 1.534.50 Newstead Abbey - Placed at 2.63Sat, 27 Sep 2014 10:52:58 -0500Trap 1 promptly wins the first.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30347141/chester-draw-bias---how-much-can-i-lose?post_id=541618185#541618185Trap 1 promptly wins the first.Sat, 27 Sep 2014 07:57:48 -0500Trap 1 or two.3.05 Potent Embrace3.40 Bikini Island4.50 Newstead AbbeyExtending it to include races where stalls 1-3 may have an advantage2.30 Ambitious Boy/Bethany Bay3.05 Ventura Quest3.40 Bikini Island/Chauvelin4.50 Secret Look/Newstead Abbey5.25https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30347141/chester-draw-bias---how-much-can-i-lose?post_id=541616629#541616629Trap 1 or two.3.05 Potent Embrace3.40 Bikini Island4.50 Newstead AbbeyExtending it to include races where stalls 1-3 may have an advantage2.30 Ambitious Boy/Bethany Bay3.05 Ventura Quest3.40 Bikini Island/Chauvelin4.50 Secret Look/Newstead Abbey5.25Sat, 27 Sep 2014 06:04:15 -0500Draw is almost always built into the price. So betting blind won't be profitable. You have to include the other variables - Course and Jockey (has the horse and jockey won here before?). Course specialists can be both horse and jockey, strike-rate sthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30347141/chester-draw-bias---how-much-can-i-lose?post_id=541523559#541523559Draw is almost always built into the price. So betting blind won't be profitable. You have to include the other variables - Course and Jockey (has the horse and jockey won here before?). Course specialists can be both horse and jockey, strike-rate stFri, 19 Sep 2014 11:30:15 -0500But that's where you have to look at the horse and the jockey's. It is more of a note taking approach rather than the stats to find the ones that can overcome the draw. Then the edge can be there for you against the 'built in' factor in the price.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30347141/chester-draw-bias---how-much-can-i-lose?post_id=541508991#541508991But that's where you have to look at the horse and the jockey's. It is more of a note taking approach rather than the stats to find the ones that can overcome the draw. Then the edge can be there for you against the 'built in' factor in the price.Thu, 18 Sep 2014 13:15:42 -0500The draw advantage, or lack of it, will normally be built into the market.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30347141/chester-draw-bias---how-much-can-i-lose?post_id=541508401#541508401The draw advantage, or lack of it, will normally be built into the market.Thu, 18 Sep 2014 12:32:47 -0500Eight selections thus far. One nice winner that gives us +1.03 points in the win market at Betfair SP, less commissions of course and a profit in the place market too.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30347141/chester-draw-bias---how-much-can-i-lose?post_id=541490703#541490703Eight selections thus far. One nice winner that gives us +1.03 points in the win market at Betfair SP, less commissions of course and a profit in the place market too.Wed, 17 Sep 2014 08:36:03 -0500Low draw @ Chester 5f handicaps 2000-2012 123% return, 6f 111% to bsp according to masseyhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30347141/chester-draw-bias---how-much-can-i-lose?post_id=541446991#541446991Low draw @ Chester 5f handicaps 2000-2012 123% return, 6f 111% to bsp according to masseySat, 13 Sep 2014 18:39:33 -0500Have to admit I use draw in my selections quite a bit for some tracks, but it's only one factor as SS post suggests.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30347141/chester-draw-bias---how-much-can-i-lose?post_id=541435163#541435163Have to admit I use draw in my selections quite a bit for some tracks, but it's only one factor as SS post suggests.Sat, 13 Sep 2014 07:05:41 -0500