New Posts For Thread: Selection bias with respect to possible past apocalyptic eventshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30325487/selection-bias-with-respect-to-possible-past-apocalyptic-eventsImagine you got 3,600 people and put them into individual isolated cells. Now, imagine that you sent a guard into each cell, each with two revolvers with five bullets each. You asked each guard to fire both revolvers, point blank, at each prisoner’I like Investor2's post but have a quibble:There are many probability series that never reach 1 when totalled over the series.As an example: the series 3% + 1.5% + 0.75% + 0.375% + . . . will never approach 100%. It might approach 6% but never more.Ahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30325487/selection-bias-with-respect-to-possible-past-apocalyptic-events?post_id=541040883#541040883I like Investor2's post but have a quibble:There are many probability series that never reach 1 when totalled over the series.As an example: the series 3% + 1.5% + 0.75% + 0.375% + . . . will never approach 100%. It might approach 6% but never more.AWed, 20 Aug 2014 16:06:20 -0500TheInvestor2,Quite an interesting link. I doubt that Berkshire underwrite truly apocalyptic events though - ones with a significant drop in population. Question: Would you agree that the probability of having been born in the 10th century is lower thhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30325487/selection-bias-with-respect-to-possible-past-apocalyptic-events?post_id=541036151#541036151TheInvestor2,Quite an interesting link. I doubt that Berkshire underwrite truly apocalyptic events though - ones with a significant drop in population. Question: Would you agree that the probability of having been born in the 10th century is lower thWed, 20 Aug 2014 11:51:45 -0500lunacy and straightjacket words spring to mindhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30325487/selection-bias-with-respect-to-possible-past-apocalyptic-events?post_id=541027837#541027837lunacy and straightjacket words spring to mindTue, 19 Aug 2014 20:56:19 -0500With this kind of problem you would start with a guess. The risk has to remain to make sense of it though (you're example seems like a one off event).Let's say it's 1962, and the chance that a nuclear bomb will be dropped on a major city in the nexthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30325487/selection-bias-with-respect-to-possible-past-apocalyptic-events?post_id=541026085#541026085With this kind of problem you would start with a guess. The risk has to remain to make sense of it though (you're example seems like a one off event).Let's say it's 1962, and the chance that a nuclear bomb will be dropped on a major city in the nextTue, 19 Aug 2014 18:45:27 -0500No problem, mate. It's not the simplest question in the world!The Chit Chat thread has had more replies, so if any general bettors feel a sudden urge to discuss selection bias with respect to possible past apocalyptic events, it might be better to dohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30325487/selection-bias-with-respect-to-possible-past-apocalyptic-events?post_id=541023349#541023349No problem, mate. It's not the simplest question in the world!The Chit Chat thread has had more replies, so if any general bettors feel a sudden urge to discuss selection bias with respect to possible past apocalyptic events, it might be better to doTue, 19 Aug 2014 16:05:01 -0500Apologies, I've misread what you were saying.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30325487/selection-bias-with-respect-to-possible-past-apocalyptic-events?post_id=541015961#541015961Apologies, I've misread what you were saying.Tue, 19 Aug 2014 07:20:18 -0500Patra"imagine that you sent a guard into each cell, each with two revolvers with five bullets each. You asked each guard to fire both revolvers, point blank, at each prisoner’s head. Approximately (1/6)*(1/6) of the prisoners would survive, i.e. 10https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30325487/selection-bias-with-respect-to-possible-past-apocalyptic-events?post_id=541015765#541015765Patra"imagine that you sent a guard into each cell, each with two revolvers with five bullets each. You asked each guard to fire both revolvers, point blank, at each prisoner’s head. Approximately (1/6)*(1/6) of the prisoners would survive, i.e. 10Tue, 19 Aug 2014 06:44:05 -0500why are guards shooting prisoners?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30325487/selection-bias-with-respect-to-possible-past-apocalyptic-events?post_id=540959771#540959771why are guards shooting prisoners?Fri, 15 Aug 2014 11:19:42 -0500What? Why?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30325487/selection-bias-with-respect-to-possible-past-apocalyptic-events?post_id=540958891#540958891What? Why?Fri, 15 Aug 2014 10:09:23 -0500You've lost mehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30325487/selection-bias-with-respect-to-possible-past-apocalyptic-events?post_id=540955685#540955685You've lost meFri, 15 Aug 2014 06:08:27 -0500