New Posts For Thread: Boffin helphttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30230289/boffin-helpHi there,I am trying to develop a horse racing laying system.The average odds I lay are around 6.0.What sample size do I need to be relatively sure it either works or doesn't?Thanks in advance. How do you calculate it btw?DARWIN HAD THE SAME TROUBLE BUT HE SORTED IT OUThttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30230289/boffin-help?post_id=538623733#538623733DARWIN HAD THE SAME TROUBLE BUT HE SORTED IT OUTThu, 27 Mar 2014 17:16:43 -0500Daz doorstep challenge did me.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30230289/boffin-help?post_id=538622981#538622981Daz doorstep challenge did me.Thu, 27 Mar 2014 16:27:07 -0500Looked at binomial distribution and have come to the conclusion I am too stupid to understand ithttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30230289/boffin-help?post_id=538621947#538621947Looked at binomial distribution and have come to the conclusion I am too stupid to understand itThu, 27 Mar 2014 15:25:56 -0500Sheppy, its just the average that comes to round 6.0. Lowest has been 1.44, highest 23.0. Up 48 points after 119 races at level stakes, so obviously interested when the data starts to become predictive, indicative, you know what I mean. Personally I'https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30230289/boffin-help?post_id=538621903#538621903Sheppy, its just the average that comes to round 6.0. Lowest has been 1.44, highest 23.0. Up 48 points after 119 races at level stakes, so obviously interested when the data starts to become predictive, indicative, you know what I mean. Personally I'Thu, 27 Mar 2014 15:22:27 -0500I've come to the conclusion that a system has to be much more complex than backing/laying at certain odds for it to work.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30230289/boffin-help?post_id=538620753#538620753I've come to the conclusion that a system has to be much more complex than backing/laying at certain odds for it to work.Thu, 27 Mar 2014 13:54:56 -0500unfortunately you will never have enough data..https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30230289/boffin-help?post_id=538620677#538620677unfortunately you will never have enough data..Thu, 27 Mar 2014 13:49:42 -0500Well you have to look at it like the average should be 166.66 out of 1000 for bf odds of 6 (ie 5/1). But in reality you'd expect half the actual results to be under 166.66 and half of them to be over 166.66. And the distribution if it's a "normal" dhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30230289/boffin-help?post_id=538618251#538618251Well you have to look at it like the average should be 166.66 out of 1000 for bf odds of 6 (ie 5/1). But in reality you'd expect half the actual results to be under 166.66 and half of them to be over 166.66. And the distribution if it's a "normal" dThu, 27 Mar 2014 11:52:30 -0500No, truth is I still don't understand how you worked it out!If sample size was 1000, (and at odds of 6to1) and I had only 155 winners instead of the expected 166.6, why is it a 16% probability that it is just luck? Sorry for being old fashioned stupihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30230289/boffin-help?post_id=538615423#538615423No, truth is I still don't understand how you worked it out!If sample size was 1000, (and at odds of 6to1) and I had only 155 winners instead of the expected 166.6, why is it a 16% probability that it is just luck? Sorry for being old fashioned stupiThu, 27 Mar 2014 09:42:46 -0500Thanks guys - had to actually read a few stats web sites just to understand your posts but much appreciated. Best of luck with your puntinghttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30230289/boffin-help?post_id=538615169#538615169Thanks guys - had to actually read a few stats web sites just to understand your posts but much appreciated. Best of luck with your puntingThu, 27 Mar 2014 09:30:01 -0500Here's some figures in a table calculated from excel: sample size 100 500 1000 2000 5000 10000 20000 edge(%) 1 0.482 0.460 0.444 0.421 0.376 0.327 0.159 2 0.464 0.421 0.389 0.345 0.264 0.186 0.023 3 0.447 0.382 0.336 0.274 0.171https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30230289/boffin-help?post_id=538612349#538612349Here's some figures in a table calculated from excel: sample size 100 500 1000 2000 5000 10000 20000 edge(%) 1 0.482 0.460 0.444 0.421 0.376 0.327 0.159 2 0.464 0.421 0.389 0.345 0.264 0.186 0.023 3 0.447 0.382 0.336 0.274 0.171Thu, 27 Mar 2014 07:15:08 -0500