New Posts For Thread: Deal or no Deal probability questionhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30182701/deal-or-no-deal-probability-questionApologies if this has been discussed ad infinitum before ...I couldn't see any threads on the subject and a Google search didn't turn up any relevant results ...Basically, I would like it if one or more of the more mathematically adept members of thHe does not offer a fair amount. But the value of money is not constant. If your expectancy was £50,0000,000 you might be correct to settle for accepting only £10,000,000.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30182701/deal-or-no-deal-probability-question?post_id=538919567#538919567He does not offer a fair amount. But the value of money is not constant. If your expectancy was £50,0000,000 you might be correct to settle for accepting only £10,000,000.Tue, 15 Apr 2014 08:51:03 -0500I know this shouldn't come as a surprise but I've never seen the dealer offer more than the mathematical expectation, has anyone?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30182701/deal-or-no-deal-probability-question?post_id=538909809#538909809I know this shouldn't come as a surprise but I've never seen the dealer offer more than the mathematical expectation, has anyone?Mon, 14 Apr 2014 10:40:29 -0500Watched this prog recently,the above methods of probability calculation are correct-however the player holds one of the boxes,making the target only 21 boxes to choose from.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30182701/deal-or-no-deal-probability-question?post_id=538519987#538519987Watched this prog recently,the above methods of probability calculation are correct-however the player holds one of the boxes,making the target only 21 boxes to choose from.Fri, 21 Mar 2014 10:24:25 -0500Thank you gentlemen ... it all seems so obvious once it's explained clearly and succinctlyhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30182701/deal-or-no-deal-probability-question?post_id=538355947#538355947Thank you gentlemen ... it all seems so obvious once it's explained clearly and succinctlyTue, 11 Mar 2014 08:07:40 -0500Ignore beaten againhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30182701/deal-or-no-deal-probability-question?post_id=538351131#538351131Ignore beaten againMon, 10 Mar 2014 18:58:25 -0500Pick two boxes from the original 22 boxes. One of the two selected boxes must contain the £250k and the remaining selected box from the remaining total of 21 boxes must contain the £100k:(2/22)*(1/21) = 1/231 = 0.43%https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30182701/deal-or-no-deal-probability-question?post_id=538351127#538351127Pick two boxes from the original 22 boxes. One of the two selected boxes must contain the £250k and the remaining selected box from the remaining total of 21 boxes must contain the £100k:(2/22)*(1/21) = 1/231 = 0.43%Mon, 10 Mar 2014 18:58:00 -050022 boxes, and doesn't matter which way round they are, so there are 22 x 21 / 2 combinations. Therefore the probability of the final two being £100k and £250k is 1/22 x 1/21 x 2 = 1/231 = 0.433 %.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30182701/deal-or-no-deal-probability-question?post_id=538350997#53835099722 boxes, and doesn't matter which way round they are, so there are 22 x 21 / 2 combinations. Therefore the probability of the final two being £100k and £250k is 1/22 x 1/21 x 2 = 1/231 = 0.433 %.Mon, 10 Mar 2014 18:46:27 -0500Apologies for resuscitating this thread but in view of today's game I just wondered if one of you maths whizzkids could tell me how to work out the probability of the last two boxes in the game being the two biggies ... ie the £100,000 and the £250https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30182701/deal-or-no-deal-probability-question?post_id=538346421#538346421Apologies for resuscitating this thread but in view of today's game I just wondered if one of you maths whizzkids could tell me how to work out the probability of the last two boxes in the game being the two biggies ... ie the £100,000 and the £250Mon, 10 Mar 2014 14:13:03 -0500sorry, cross posted there Mr Magoo ...https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30182701/deal-or-no-deal-probability-question?post_id=537570203#537570203sorry, cross posted there Mr Magoo ...Wed, 22 Jan 2014 04:53:26 -0600Thank you all, gentlemen. My "0.4329" above was a typo btw, I meant to write "0.04329".I can see now that I was overcomplicating the issue of the probability of picking the big one in the first round ...22 boxes, 5 selections so it's just 5/22. So ashttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30182701/deal-or-no-deal-probability-question?post_id=537570175#537570175Thank you all, gentlemen. My "0.4329" above was a typo btw, I meant to write "0.04329".I can see now that I was overcomplicating the issue of the probability of picking the big one in the first round ...22 boxes, 5 selections so it's just 5/22. So asWed, 22 Jan 2014 04:52:01 -0600