New Posts For Thread: Odds questionhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30106765/odds-questionHi all,I have a maths odds question.If I was to buy 100 UK national Lottery tickets, and assuming that getting 3 numbers up is 56-1, what are the odds of me getting 3 numbers up 3 seperate times in those 100 tickets.Basically I had an argument with aYeah, my answer assumed random numbers on tickets. You could improve your chances of getting a small number of winning tickets at the expense of the chance of getting a large numberhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30106765/odds-question?post_id=535894049#535894049Yeah, my answer assumed random numbers on tickets. You could improve your chances of getting a small number of winning tickets at the expense of the chance of getting a large numberFri, 11 Oct 2013 09:49:06 -0500isn't there a bit more to this problem? I don't think that the trials are independent as losing on one ticket increases the chances of winning on another ticket (assuming that the 100 tickets contain 2000 different combos of 3 -- is that possible anhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30106765/odds-question?post_id=535891287#535891287isn't there a bit more to this problem? I don't think that the trials are independent as losing on one ticket increases the chances of winning on another ticket (assuming that the 100 tickets contain 2000 different combos of 3 -- is that possible anFri, 11 Oct 2013 06:45:29 -0500you're welcome!https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30106765/odds-question?post_id=535891123#535891123you're welcome!Fri, 11 Oct 2013 06:28:32 -0500maybe think about it with a dice instead.You're trying to roll 6's.If you roll 3 times are you 50% to get at least one 6?Easiest way to see it is say what is the probability of rolling NO 6's (fail, fail, fail = 5/6x5/6x5/6) = 57.8%So chance of rollihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30106765/odds-question?post_id=535890369#535890369maybe think about it with a dice instead.You're trying to roll 6's.If you roll 3 times are you 50% to get at least one 6?Easiest way to see it is say what is the probability of rolling NO 6's (fail, fail, fail = 5/6x5/6x5/6) = 57.8%So chance of rolliFri, 11 Oct 2013 05:08:43 -0500http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspxhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30106765/odds-question?post_id=535885443#535885443http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspxThu, 10 Oct 2013 16:58:11 -0500yes he was correct!I also found an online resource a binomial calculator, which will definitely come in handy!Strange thing is buying 28 tickets doesnt make us even money, 57/28 aprox .5, but according to binomial calc its around 39 % !Once again thnhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30106765/odds-question?post_id=535885433#535885433yes he was correct!I also found an online resource a binomial calculator, which will definitely come in handy!Strange thing is buying 28 tickets doesnt make us even money, 57/28 aprox .5, but according to binomial calc its around 39 % !Once again thnThu, 10 Oct 2013 16:57:53 -0500Actually that wiki page is a bit difficult. But that't theequation, as stated in shorthand by JL on his first post.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30106765/odds-question?post_id=535884347#535884347Actually that wiki page is a bit difficult. But that't theequation, as stated in shorthand by JL on his first post.Thu, 10 Oct 2013 16:01:03 -0500It'd be different if it's "getting 3 numbers up 3 seperate times" or you mean "getting 3 numbers up AT LEAST 3 seperate times" as JLivermore suggests.I quite believe "100 ticket and at least 3 with 3 numbers = 25.7%" might be right but exactly 3 numbhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30106765/odds-question?post_id=535884325#535884325It'd be different if it's "getting 3 numbers up 3 seperate times" or you mean "getting 3 numbers up AT LEAST 3 seperate times" as JLivermore suggests.I quite believe "100 ticket and at least 3 with 3 numbers = 25.7%" might be right but exactly 3 numbThu, 10 Oct 2013 15:59:33 -0500Hey, thanks for that, so its a 3-1 shot!https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30106765/odds-question?post_id=535883555#535883555Hey, thanks for that, so its a 3-1 shot!Thu, 10 Oct 2013 15:08:37 -0500ok, so 100 ticket and exactly 3 with 3 numbers (assuming 1/57 probability of 3 numbers) = 15.6%100 ticket and at least 3 with 3 numbers = 25.7%https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30106765/odds-question?post_id=535883489#535883489ok, so 100 ticket and exactly 3 with 3 numbers (assuming 1/57 probability of 3 numbers) = 15.6%100 ticket and at least 3 with 3 numbers = 25.7%Thu, 10 Oct 2013 15:05:14 -0500