New Posts For Thread: to the pros, what is your average monthly profit to level stakes?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30091889/to-the-pros-what-is-your-average-monthly-profit-to-level-stakes?Hugh Taylor gets around 30 point profit per month on average.The pros are all with the bookies and on purple now.Not in this ghost town.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30091889/to-the-pros-what-is-your-average-monthly-profit-to-level-stakes?post_id=535756717#535756717The pros are all with the bookies and on purple now.Not in this ghost town.Wed, 02 Oct 2013 18:40:40 -0500racingguru 02 Oct 13 17:13 Joined: 06 Jan 01 | Topic/replies: 1,170 | Blogger: racingguru's blogwhy do people create these hypothetical scenarios? when using kelly you are estimating the horses chances to the best of your ability. It is not fact. Thehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30091889/to-the-pros-what-is-your-average-monthly-profit-to-level-stakes?post_id=535755553#535755553racingguru 02 Oct 13 17:13 Joined: 06 Jan 01 | Topic/replies: 1,170 | Blogger: racingguru's blogwhy do people create these hypothetical scenarios? when using kelly you are estimating the horses chances to the best of your ability. It is not fact. TheWed, 02 Oct 2013 16:43:11 -0500You assume that because you cannt spot an even money shot that's available at 8/1 no one can. Do these bets occur in the real world ,for sure,imo, albeit rarely.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30091889/to-the-pros-what-is-your-average-monthly-profit-to-level-stakes?post_id=535750173#535750173You assume that because you cannt spot an even money shot that's available at 8/1 no one can. Do these bets occur in the real world ,for sure,imo, albeit rarely.Wed, 02 Oct 2013 11:31:21 -0500why do people create these hypothetical scenarios? when using kelly you are estimating the horses chances to the best of your ability. It is not fact. There is variance and error all the time so how anyone could come up with a scenario in the real wohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30091889/to-the-pros-what-is-your-average-monthly-profit-to-level-stakes?post_id=535749905#535749905why do people create these hypothetical scenarios? when using kelly you are estimating the horses chances to the best of your ability. It is not fact. There is variance and error all the time so how anyone could come up with a scenario in the real woWed, 02 Oct 2013 11:13:38 -0500If I could bet 8/1 on a coin toss that I knew to be fair and had the time to get the funds together I'd stick 80% of the cash I could get my hands on on it. Win or lose I wouldn't be a pro, as if it won I'd quit and if it lost I'd quit, but it wouldhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30091889/to-the-pros-what-is-your-average-monthly-profit-to-level-stakes?post_id=535749849#535749849If I could bet 8/1 on a coin toss that I knew to be fair and had the time to get the funds together I'd stick 80% of the cash I could get my hands on on it. Win or lose I wouldn't be a pro, as if it won I'd quit and if it lost I'd quit, but it wouldWed, 02 Oct 2013 11:09:34 -0500I use Kelly but I bet in the real world. Firstly your example is 44% on full Kelly but regardless that situation NEVER happens. Every pro on horses that I have come across that uses Kelly uses a modified version, typically 1/3 kelly to 1/4 kelly. I uhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30091889/to-the-pros-what-is-your-average-monthly-profit-to-level-stakes?post_id=535749571#535749571I use Kelly but I bet in the real world. Firstly your example is 44% on full Kelly but regardless that situation NEVER happens. Every pro on horses that I have come across that uses Kelly uses a modified version, typically 1/3 kelly to 1/4 kelly. I uWed, 02 Oct 2013 10:52:56 -0500If you offered a 8/1 on the toss of a coin most would shove 33% of their bank. If it came up the wrong way the bank just has to be built up again.Very Ocassionally the 8/1 on a perceived evens shot crops up in a horse racing event.Kelly Criterion (https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30091889/to-the-pros-what-is-your-average-monthly-profit-to-level-stakes?post_id=535749335#535749335If you offered a 8/1 on the toss of a coin most would shove 33% of their bank. If it came up the wrong way the bank just has to be built up again.Very Ocassionally the 8/1 on a perceived evens shot crops up in a horse racing event.Kelly Criterion (Wed, 02 Oct 2013 10:40:04 -0500Tinkler - I don't know any pros how would be willing to put 33% of their bank on the line on one bet - at least their "pro" label wouldn't last too long as they'd be busted pretty soon.Talking horses here but bets typically range from 0.4% - 3% max.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30091889/to-the-pros-what-is-your-average-monthly-profit-to-level-stakes?post_id=535749061#535749061Tinkler - I don't know any pros how would be willing to put 33% of their bank on the line on one bet - at least their "pro" label wouldn't last too long as they'd be busted pretty soon.Talking horses here but bets typically range from 0.4% - 3% max.Wed, 02 Oct 2013 10:25:54 -0500Don't think you can categorise a pro punter in to one type. Some will only bet 5 % of their bank on one bet yet others given the right price would be willing to put 33% on the line. Some pros keep detailed monthly records and percentage rates of rethttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30091889/to-the-pros-what-is-your-average-monthly-profit-to-level-stakes?post_id=535748799#535748799Don't think you can categorise a pro punter in to one type. Some will only bet 5 % of their bank on one bet yet others given the right price would be willing to put 33% on the line. Some pros keep detailed monthly records and percentage rates of retWed, 02 Oct 2013 10:12:32 -0500I agree, when you start thinking in terms of months you are doomed to failure. Yes any one can work out a monthly average but its not something a pro really reflects onhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/30091889/to-the-pros-what-is-your-average-monthly-profit-to-level-stakes?post_id=535743187#535743187I agree, when you start thinking in terms of months you are doomed to failure. Yes any one can work out a monthly average but its not something a pro really reflects onWed, 02 Oct 2013 02:57:25 -0500