New Posts For Thread: The laws of averageshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29960117/the-laws-of-averagesHow many times have you thought something along the lines of "They must be due for a win" Or heard other people say it. Is it possible to get an edge using "the laws of averages" or is the idea just completely ludicrous!Investor, perhaps I'm a smaller punter than you, or I don't have enough qualifiers.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29960117/the-laws-of-averages?post_id=533061457#533061457Investor, perhaps I'm a smaller punter than you, or I don't have enough qualifiers.Fri, 14 Jun 2013 06:40:17 -0500Trevh 14 Jun 13 01:43[...]Last year I made a very good sum but it was less than 2% of my turnover, so anyone making 7% but having "not much left for me" I find very hard to understand?Less that 0.5% on turnover for me, and I still pay PC!https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29960117/the-laws-of-averages?post_id=533061003#533061003Trevh 14 Jun 13 01:43[...]Last year I made a very good sum but it was less than 2% of my turnover, so anyone making 7% but having "not much left for me" I find very hard to understand?Less that 0.5% on turnover for me, and I still pay PC!Fri, 14 Jun 2013 06:06:41 -0500Trevh, 2.20 about a 2.0 chance is a 20% margin on a single bet, i.e. potential profit is 1.20, potential loss is 1.00, 1.20 is 20% bigger than 1.00 that is why I refer to it as 20% margin. As I don't just try to bet 2.00 chances at 2.20, I also bet,https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29960117/the-laws-of-averages?post_id=533059415#533059415Trevh, 2.20 about a 2.0 chance is a 20% margin on a single bet, i.e. potential profit is 1.20, potential loss is 1.00, 1.20 is 20% bigger than 1.00 that is why I refer to it as 20% margin. As I don't just try to bet 2.00 chances at 2.20, I also bet,Fri, 14 Jun 2013 03:32:48 -0500Kenilworth : Last season my margin was a notional 20% but the reality was around 7% so with commission atnear 5% there wasn't much left for me!I suspect your notional 20% is actually 10% (as in the other thread when you thought 2.2 is 20% value on ahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29960117/the-laws-of-averages?post_id=533053621#533053621Kenilworth : Last season my margin was a notional 20% but the reality was around 7% so with commission atnear 5% there wasn't much left for me!I suspect your notional 20% is actually 10% (as in the other thread when you thought 2.2 is 20% value on aThu, 13 Jun 2013 19:43:09 -0500Haha so you've lost about 50p then!But like you said, it's not about whether they actually win or not. It's how much you make on the trade.I lay short odds a lot and am usually left feeling like an idiot for thinking that I had a chance! But I was cehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29960117/the-laws-of-averages?post_id=532981507#532981507Haha so you've lost about 50p then!But like you said, it's not about whether they actually win or not. It's how much you make on the trade.I lay short odds a lot and am usually left feeling like an idiot for thinking that I had a chance! But I was ceTue, 11 Jun 2013 06:50:21 -0500Haha, yes plenty, thanks. Lost a fair few thoughhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29960117/the-laws-of-averages?post_id=532980369#532980369Haha, yes plenty, thanks. Lost a fair few thoughTue, 11 Jun 2013 05:49:57 -0500Thanks 1.01 Layer, that's good to know! I've never changed any settings on Betfair, except the way I view my matched bets etc.Yes 20p a day would be £73 in a year so it all mounts up!Just out of interest, have you ever won any 1.01 lays?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29960117/the-laws-of-averages?post_id=532979977#532979977Thanks 1.01 Layer, that's good to know! I've never changed any settings on Betfair, except the way I view my matched bets etc.Yes 20p a day would be £73 in a year so it all mounts up!Just out of interest, have you ever won any 1.01 lays?Tue, 11 Jun 2013 05:24:15 -0500You shouldn't use the bf cashout feature. You get much better value putting up your own prices. As for pennies, if you're making 20p (guaranteed) on a £2 bet, that's a 10% return, which is great. There's no shame in bending over to pick up a penny Uhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29960117/the-laws-of-averages?post_id=532979771#532979771You shouldn't use the bf cashout feature. You get much better value putting up your own prices. As for pennies, if you're making 20p (guaranteed) on a £2 bet, that's a 10% return, which is great. There's no shame in bending over to pick up a penny UTue, 11 Jun 2013 05:13:01 -0500WOW! What a great team I've got! Cheers guys for your help, it's much appreciated!I can understand why people would lay @ small prices, maybe under 50 if you were REALLY sure, BUT laying @ 1000 would just give me sleepless nights!It's like it's gonnahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29960117/the-laws-of-averages?post_id=532978947#532978947WOW! What a great team I've got! Cheers guys for your help, it's much appreciated!I can understand why people would lay @ small prices, maybe under 50 if you were REALLY sure, BUT laying @ 1000 would just give me sleepless nights!It's like it's gonnaTue, 11 Jun 2013 03:50:44 -0500Very true pxb. I tend to operate with a relatively small bank, so long odds laying usually ties up too much of my bank for me.Shep, as for getting the thing to win, I wouldn't worry too much about it in the short term. As long as you're covering yourhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29960117/the-laws-of-averages?post_id=532978679#532978679Very true pxb. I tend to operate with a relatively small bank, so long odds laying usually ties up too much of my bank for me.Shep, as for getting the thing to win, I wouldn't worry too much about it in the short term. As long as you're covering yourTue, 11 Jun 2013 03:06:30 -0500