New Posts For Thread: Chit Chat tried their hardest, but could'nt help, so they sent me here....https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29801699/chit-chat-tried-their-hardest-but-couldnt-help-so-they-sent-me-hereThis was my questionI have been trialing out betting on draws in football for couple of months now, and after 120 wagers, I have won 40 times (actually 41 times, but we'll call it 40 to keep it simple). The average odds are somewhere in the region 3.You only have to bet 1% of your bank at level stakes to double yourbank(before commission)after 500 bets.167.67 * 3.6 = 600.(100 profit)BUT the chances of your strike rate continuing at the current rate is 0.120 is nowhere near enough games to draw ahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29801699/chit-chat-tried-their-hardest-but-couldnt-help-so-they-sent-me-here?post_id=529687405#529687405You only have to bet 1% of your bank at level stakes to double yourbank(before commission)after 500 bets.167.67 * 3.6 = 600.(100 profit)BUT the chances of your strike rate continuing at the current rate is 0.120 is nowhere near enough games to draw aSat, 09 Mar 2013 18:08:16 -0600of course, that presumes I can keep up my 1 win in 3 record. One question I do have, is that do the math theories ans simulations take into account the fact that as you get further into the 'series' the odds of hitting that losing run of 15 is consthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29801699/chit-chat-tried-their-hardest-but-couldnt-help-so-they-sent-me-here?post_id=529681559#529681559of course, that presumes I can keep up my 1 win in 3 record. One question I do have, is that do the math theories ans simulations take into account the fact that as you get further into the 'series' the odds of hitting that losing run of 15 is constSat, 09 Mar 2013 14:35:59 -0600so this all boils down to a return on investment of 130 percent then right.given his stated objective, to double his bank every 500 bets, then take the profit and start again.his average chances are 2/1 off going bust, he will double 2 banks and busthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29801699/chit-chat-tried-their-hardest-but-couldnt-help-so-they-sent-me-here?post_id=529679151#529679151so this all boils down to a return on investment of 130 percent then right.given his stated objective, to double his bank every 500 bets, then take the profit and start again.his average chances are 2/1 off going bust, he will double 2 banks and bustSat, 09 Mar 2013 13:11:28 -0600Joined: 12 Feb 11 | Topic/replies: 1,166 | Blogger: dunlaying's blogDunlaying said that if we "treat" the trials as independent then we can use a Poisson approximation.Which is the way to do it if there is no calculating device handy.Your bullshit mahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29801699/chit-chat-tried-their-hardest-but-couldnt-help-so-they-sent-me-here?post_id=529666365#529666365Joined: 12 Feb 11 | Topic/replies: 1,166 | Blogger: dunlaying's blogDunlaying said that if we "treat" the trials as independent then we can use a Poisson approximation.Which is the way to do it if there is no calculating device handy.Your bullshit maSat, 09 Mar 2013 06:08:59 -0600thats pleasing to know, nice t know there is some experiments to back up the theorieshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29801699/chit-chat-tried-their-hardest-but-couldnt-help-so-they-sent-me-here?post_id=529665689#529665689thats pleasing to know, nice t know there is some experiments to back up the theoriesSat, 09 Mar 2013 05:21:56 -0600Ampleworth,Just carried out a simulation, and the probability comes out as 31.32%, tallying very well with the result from your web calculator (which, I assume, is probably using simulation too).https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29801699/chit-chat-tried-their-hardest-but-couldnt-help-so-they-sent-me-here?post_id=529665311#529665311Ampleworth,Just carried out a simulation, and the probability comes out as 31.32%, tallying very well with the result from your web calculator (which, I assume, is probably using simulation too).Sat, 09 Mar 2013 04:49:28 -0600Dunlaying said that if we "treat" the trials as independent then we can use a Poisson approximation.Which is the way to do it if there is no calculating device handy.Your bullshit may baffle others it most certainly will not baffle me.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29801699/chit-chat-tried-their-hardest-but-couldnt-help-so-they-sent-me-here?post_id=529664961#529664961Dunlaying said that if we "treat" the trials as independent then we can use a Poisson approximation.Which is the way to do it if there is no calculating device handy.Your bullshit may baffle others it most certainly will not baffle me.Sat, 09 Mar 2013 04:19:25 -0600I dont know, its all getting beyond me! Bongo, on the chit chat thread seems to think there is only a 1 in 3 chance of the bank busting during 500 bets, which if true, is a green light to me, but he freely admits you lot may be more qualified to comehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29801699/chit-chat-tried-their-hardest-but-couldnt-help-so-they-sent-me-here?post_id=529664715#529664715I dont know, its all getting beyond me! Bongo, on the chit chat thread seems to think there is only a 1 in 3 chance of the bank busting during 500 bets, which if true, is a green light to me, but he freely admits you lot may be more qualified to comeSat, 09 Mar 2013 03:58:36 -0600How does dunlayin reconcile such comments with that the fact that each Bernoulli trial is independent??The probability of each [independent] trial could not be constant otherwise...https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29801699/chit-chat-tried-their-hardest-but-couldnt-help-so-they-sent-me-here?post_id=529658055#529658055How does dunlayin reconcile such comments with that the fact that each Bernoulli trial is independent??The probability of each [independent] trial could not be constant otherwise...Fri, 08 Mar 2013 18:44:14 -0600from the chit chat sessions, for someone to analyze....I agree with dunlayin:You don't want to start a losing run of 15The chances that the first bet IS the start of a losing run of 15 is 0.00228 ( 1 - POWER(2/3,15)You want to repeat this feat of avohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29801699/chit-chat-tried-their-hardest-but-couldnt-help-so-they-sent-me-here?post_id=529655555#529655555from the chit chat sessions, for someone to analyze....I agree with dunlayin:You don't want to start a losing run of 15The chances that the first bet IS the start of a losing run of 15 is 0.00228 ( 1 - POWER(2/3,15)You want to repeat this feat of avoFri, 08 Mar 2013 17:00:12 -0600