New Posts For Thread: Probability: how would you calculate this?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29784619/probability-how-would-you-calculate-thisIn a discussion elsewhere and have looked on the net and can't find NHL BettingGame structure:60 minute result can be Home win / tie / away winIf the match is tiedit goes to OVERTIME which is 5 minutes sudden death followed by a shoot-out.For bettingThe starting point surely has to be to take the regular time odds, remove the draw/tie and scale the odds back to 100%.e.g.WINNIPEG 3.25PHILADELPHIA 2.00TIE 4.30becomesWINNIPEG 2.62PHILADELPHIA 1.62From there, you've got to use your judgement abouthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29784619/probability-how-would-you-calculate-this?post_id=529313973#529313973The starting point surely has to be to take the regular time odds, remove the draw/tie and scale the odds back to 100%.e.g.WINNIPEG 3.25PHILADELPHIA 2.00TIE 4.30becomesWINNIPEG 2.62PHILADELPHIA 1.62From there, you've got to use your judgement aboutSun, 24 Feb 2013 10:19:59 -0600Yes, the data is there but my feeling on this is the following:If you are going to bet on a team team, you need to have the confidence that they can do it without needing extra time or a shoot-out.As well, the strike rate you need to attain if bettinhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29784619/probability-how-would-you-calculate-this?post_id=529313795#529313795Yes, the data is there but my feeling on this is the following:If you are going to bet on a team team, you need to have the confidence that they can do it without needing extra time or a shoot-out.As well, the strike rate you need to attain if bettinSun, 24 Feb 2013 10:14:18 -0600Anytime donny!https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29784619/probability-how-would-you-calculate-this?post_id=529311623#529311623Anytime donny!Sun, 24 Feb 2013 08:52:47 -0600can i have evens germany if england go first ? please !https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29784619/probability-how-would-you-calculate-this?post_id=529308869#529308869can i have evens germany if england go first ? please !Sun, 24 Feb 2013 06:37:57 -0600You are going to need data. You need to know scoring rates in extra time and shoot out win probabilities all as a function of the strength of the teams.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29784619/probability-how-would-you-calculate-this?post_id=529307873#529307873You are going to need data. You need to know scoring rates in extra time and shoot out win probabilities all as a function of the strength of the teams.Sun, 24 Feb 2013 05:27:11 -0600England v Germany shoot out? 5/6 whichever side go first.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29784619/probability-how-would-you-calculate-this?post_id=529306813#529306813England v Germany shoot out? 5/6 whichever side go first.Sun, 24 Feb 2013 03:35:38 -0600prices may also be changed by bookies due to weight of money, a big client , or a popular tipsterhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29784619/probability-how-would-you-calculate-this?post_id=529298035#529298035prices may also be changed by bookies due to weight of money, a big client , or a popular tipsterSat, 23 Feb 2013 16:22:59 -0600Looking at the identical RT prices for New Jersey and Washington, initial thought was that i'd expect the Moneyline to consequently be the same for both as well, rather than 1.9 vs 2.02. However if Tie over 60 minutes is 4.0, the odds on a tie in anhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29784619/probability-how-would-you-calculate-this?post_id=529297105#529297105Looking at the identical RT prices for New Jersey and Washington, initial thought was that i'd expect the Moneyline to consequently be the same for both as well, rather than 1.9 vs 2.02. However if Tie over 60 minutes is 4.0, the odds on a tie in anSat, 23 Feb 2013 15:47:02 -0600some teams must be better at shootoutshow would you price penalties, eng v germany at footballto compare your odds you can convert the markets to 100% book, and then compare without the bookies marginhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29784619/probability-how-would-you-calculate-this?post_id=529296745#529296745some teams must be better at shootoutshow would you price penalties, eng v germany at footballto compare your odds you can convert the markets to 100% book, and then compare without the bookies marginSat, 23 Feb 2013 15:35:27 -0600Agreed, but what is the starting point?My thoughts:Last night, I had a bet on the Chicago Blackhawks at 2.20 in 60 minutes. The bet was successful.I'm was in discussion with someone that had a bet on Money-line that was 1.70.Same game/ same bet buthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29784619/probability-how-would-you-calculate-this?post_id=529293077#529293077Agreed, but what is the starting point?My thoughts:Last night, I had a bet on the Chicago Blackhawks at 2.20 in 60 minutes. The bet was successful.I'm was in discussion with someone that had a bet on Money-line that was 1.70.Same game/ same bet butSat, 23 Feb 2013 13:29:36 -0600