New Posts For Thread: Goal scoring probabilitieshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29761141/goal-scoring-probabilitiesAssume that the expected number of goals scored by a team in a match is distributed in the following way:0 goals: 10%1 goal : 40%2 goals: 30%3 goals: 20%Assume also that the probability of a goal is the same in any minute of the match. If there is sduring a game you don't really get much time to work on poisson distributions and games vary anyway - they're Football matches) not very good mathematical modelshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29761141/goal-scoring-probabilities?post_id=528965921#528965921during a game you don't really get much time to work on poisson distributions and games vary anyway - they're Football matches) not very good mathematical modelsTue, 12 Feb 2013 06:02:35 -0600off the top of my head and a quick calculation i make it 0 goals 40%1 goal 40%2 goals 15%3 goals 5%this isn't allowing for any more goals btw ,and don't forget more goals are scored second half in realityhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29761141/goal-scoring-probabilities?post_id=528965881#528965881off the top of my head and a quick calculation i make it 0 goals 40%1 goal 40%2 goals 15%3 goals 5%this isn't allowing for any more goals btw ,and don't forget more goals are scored second half in realityTue, 12 Feb 2013 06:00:52 -0600You need to modify your Poisson for zero-inflation. http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-calculate-probabilities-for-football-betting-using-poisson-part-2https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29761141/goal-scoring-probabilities?post_id=528893325#528893325You need to modify your Poisson for zero-inflation. http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-calculate-probabilities-for-football-betting-using-poisson-part-2Sat, 09 Feb 2013 10:07:14 -0600Thanks for your replies. Realized after posting that the question was flawed. I guess my assumption of same prob of goal each minute would lead to Poisson being the right tool, and that was just what I was trying to avoid, due to the mismatch of Poishttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29761141/goal-scoring-probabilities?post_id=528812781#528812781Thanks for your replies. Realized after posting that the question was flawed. I guess my assumption of same prob of goal each minute would lead to Poisson being the right tool, and that was just what I was trying to avoid, due to the mismatch of PoisWed, 06 Feb 2013 11:30:15 -0600Ok, if we ignore "Assume also that the probability of a goal is the same in any minute of the match"then we could assume that Distribution of goals in H1 is same as H2, but then we get problems because you've assumed 0% chance of > 3 goals....So we hhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29761141/goal-scoring-probabilities?post_id=528805455#528805455Ok, if we ignore "Assume also that the probability of a goal is the same in any minute of the match"then we could assume that Distribution of goals in H1 is same as H2, but then we get problems because you've assumed 0% chance of > 3 goals....So we hWed, 06 Feb 2013 06:26:30 -0600Not trying to be annoying but the question is contradictory, so can't be answered.If we assume that the probability of a goal is the same in any minute of the match then each of these probabilities implies a different goal rate. Goals Prob Impliedhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29761141/goal-scoring-probabilities?post_id=528804763#528804763Not trying to be annoying but the question is contradictory, so can't be answered.If we assume that the probability of a goal is the same in any minute of the match then each of these probabilities implies a different goal rate. Goals Prob ImpliedWed, 06 Feb 2013 05:45:53 -0600Typically, across the top European leagues over last few seasons, an average of about 43.5% of goals have been scored in the first half, varying maybe a % or two from country to country. So whatever goal rate you've used for the initial calc, multiplhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29761141/goal-scoring-probabilities?post_id=528804471#528804471Typically, across the top European leagues over last few seasons, an average of about 43.5% of goals have been scored in the first half, varying maybe a % or two from country to country. So whatever goal rate you've used for the initial calc, multiplWed, 06 Feb 2013 05:25:14 -0600Assume that the expected number of goals scored by a team in a match is distributed in the following way:0 goals: 10%1 goal : 40%2 goals: 30%3 goals: 20%Assume also that the probability of a goal is the same in any minute of the match. If there is shttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29761141/goal-scoring-probabilities?post_id=528803127#528803127Assume that the expected number of goals scored by a team in a match is distributed in the following way:0 goals: 10%1 goal : 40%2 goals: 30%3 goals: 20%Assume also that the probability of a goal is the same in any minute of the match. If there is sWed, 06 Feb 2013 03:36:45 -0600