New Posts For Thread: Value in-playhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29617483/value-in-playFirst of all this is not a topic about value as definition so please no arguements about what value is.Now to the topic. Lets say you have got value during in-play match. Now the situation changes and market moves to a fair price in your opinion. WhaAlthough you then have to factor in missing the opportunity of a better price. Backing 1.95 immediately, and maybe you could have got 1.98 two days later. I made a nice profit out of this kind of situation. It was something that couldn't happen anymohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29617483/value-in-play?post_id=527950439#527950439Although you then have to factor in missing the opportunity of a better price. Backing 1.95 immediately, and maybe you could have got 1.98 two days later. I made a nice profit out of this kind of situation. It was something that couldn't happen anymoFri, 11 Jan 2013 10:40:47 -0600yes, the whole situation is massively complicated by factoring in expected market action and broader opportunity cost.to take a simple, extreme example, if you lay at 1.8, but the coin toss is a year in the future, plainly it makes sense to lay backhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29617483/value-in-play?post_id=527948263#527948263yes, the whole situation is massively complicated by factoring in expected market action and broader opportunity cost.to take a simple, extreme example, if you lay at 1.8, but the coin toss is a year in the future, plainly it makes sense to lay backFri, 11 Jan 2013 09:07:24 -0600Yeah, my answer is anchored to how I deal with this kind of situation on Betfair. There is a lot of uncertainty involved. Let's say you lay the evens shot for 2x Kelly stake at 1.8, subsequently it goes to 1.78-1.79 and stays there. You would have tohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29617483/value-in-play?post_id=527947897#527947897Yeah, my answer is anchored to how I deal with this kind of situation on Betfair. There is a lot of uncertainty involved. Let's say you lay the evens shot for 2x Kelly stake at 1.8, subsequently it goes to 1.78-1.79 and stays there. You would have toFri, 11 Jan 2013 08:51:45 -0600"I'm talking more about modelling how you should lay off a one-off value bet at prices between the price attained and true value."Assuming you're a kelly better:Place your original bet (use kelly)Work out the new kelly bet at new priceTrade out to gehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29617483/value-in-play?post_id=527933031#527933031"I'm talking more about modelling how you should lay off a one-off value bet at prices between the price attained and true value."Assuming you're a kelly better:Place your original bet (use kelly)Work out the new kelly bet at new priceTrade out to geThu, 10 Jan 2013 17:02:11 -0600"how likely you are to be able to get out and at what price"this explains why the answers vary so much.The usual 'how much should you bet on a coin flip' question has one decision to be made (ie how much do you bet), then the coin is flipped.I read thttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29617483/value-in-play?post_id=527932983#527932983"how likely you are to be able to get out and at what price"this explains why the answers vary so much.The usual 'how much should you bet on a coin flip' question has one decision to be made (ie how much do you bet), then the coin is flipped.I read tThu, 10 Jan 2013 17:00:14 -0600viva el presidente! 10 Jan 13 17:46 Joined: 10 Jun 06 | Topic/replies: 13,336 | Blogger: viva el presidente!'s blogthis presupposes you will have the option of going back for more. I'm talking more about modelling how you should lay off a one-off valhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29617483/value-in-play?post_id=527930605#527930605viva el presidente! 10 Jan 13 17:46 Joined: 10 Jun 06 | Topic/replies: 13,336 | Blogger: viva el presidente!'s blogthis presupposes you will have the option of going back for more. I'm talking more about modelling how you should lay off a one-off valThu, 10 Jan 2013 15:46:58 -0600Viva it depends on your stake. 50p and i think i would just leave it, £20,000 and I would be looking to do some laying off. Also it isn't the prices that determine the laying off it's the time before the event start that is more important. Say I hadhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29617483/value-in-play?post_id=527927549#527927549Viva it depends on your stake. 50p and i think i would just leave it, £20,000 and I would be looking to do some laying off. Also it isn't the prices that determine the laying off it's the time before the event start that is more important. Say I hadThu, 10 Jan 2013 14:09:34 -0600this presupposes you will have the option of going back for more. I'm talking more about modelling how you should lay off a one-off value bet at prices between the price attained and true value.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29617483/value-in-play?post_id=527923393#527923393this presupposes you will have the option of going back for more. I'm talking more about modelling how you should lay off a one-off value bet at prices between the price attained and true value.Thu, 10 Jan 2013 11:46:13 -0600Yes Trevh, are the diminishing returns worth it.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29617483/value-in-play?post_id=527919853#527919853Yes Trevh, are the diminishing returns worth it.Thu, 10 Jan 2013 09:34:34 -0600Also depends how much time you want to spend sat at the screen. Letting value bets ride will give you a lot more free time :) If I could lay coin spins at 1.8 they would all be left to ride!https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29617483/value-in-play?post_id=527906259#527906259Also depends how much time you want to spend sat at the screen. Letting value bets ride will give you a lot more free time :) If I could lay coin spins at 1.8 they would all be left to ride!Wed, 09 Jan 2013 18:47:47 -0600