https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29466049/win-probability-with-horse-racing-using-ratingsWIN PROBABILITY WITH HORSE RACING USING RATINGSI would like to use KELLY STAKING method on one of the betting strategies applicable to ratings, but I can see different views on arriving at win probability. I have set out some thoughts below and if ahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29466049/win-probability-with-horse-racing-using-ratings?post_id=525692453#525692453though .....Thu, 01 Nov 2012 18:41:53 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29466049/win-probability-with-horse-racing-using-ratings?post_id=525692441#525692441Thanks for post DB.HORSES rating is a different animal to FOOTBALL ones. I'm pretty sure I glimpsed at that PDF before, fine for FOOTBALL, but not much help re - HORSE RACE RATINGS tough Having reviewed the top rated horses odds and IR odds, and conThu, 01 Nov 2012 18:41:25 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29466049/win-probability-with-horse-racing-using-ratings?post_id=525690715#525690715This is a good document concerning converting ratings into probabilitieshttp://www.football-data.co.uk/ratings.pdfThu, 01 Nov 2012 17:41:37 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29466049/win-probability-with-horse-racing-using-ratings?post_id=525649535#525649535DF Using banks isn't the greatest example but if you put up to £50,000 in one you've got the government guaranteeing you'll get it back.If a person does the same with a bookie there is no such guarantee even the big boys could go bust due to acute mWed, 31 Oct 2012 12:57:08 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29466049/win-probability-with-horse-racing-using-ratings?post_id=525630421#525630421tinkler - I don't believe that I know the exact % advantage I have, other than the hard past stats that indicate 18% top rated ones win and 17% of 2nd top rated win...and 9% of those rated 3rd rated win........and 71% of those rated in top 50%+1 of fTue, 30 Oct 2012 18:57:49 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29466049/win-probability-with-horse-racing-using-ratings?post_id=525627395#525627395How did it go tonight DFC? Had a nice lay on Reading when they were 3-0 up and 4-0 up..4-0 lay was at 1.03 (for extra £20). That's when you wish you punted some more at 1.03!..lol They were never going to come out 2nd half lying down. Can't complainTue, 30 Oct 2012 17:25:03 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29466049/win-probability-with-horse-racing-using-ratings?post_id=525620099#525620099Kelly staking is perfect if you know what your % advantage is ,which in racing can change all the time up and down. If your% advantage isn't accurate then it won't maximise it and if it is well out, will inevitably lead to the wiping out of the bettTue, 30 Oct 2012 15:00:23 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29466049/win-probability-with-horse-racing-using-ratings?post_id=525613361#525613361No more checks tonight...time for teaaaaaaaaaaaCheers the noooooooooooooTue, 30 Oct 2012 11:43:52 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29466049/win-probability-with-horse-racing-using-ratings?post_id=525613261#525613261The check using KELLY on races rated on 24.07.08 had following stats ....16 NO BETS compared with LEVEL STAKING method.1 BETS using KELLY.0 winners selected.1 horse won that was NOT selected ( in 16 NO BETS).and the LOSS was lower than LOSS comparedTue, 30 Oct 2012 11:41:06 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29466049/win-probability-with-horse-racing-using-ratings?post_id=525612451#52561245124.07.08 was a LOSS of 10.61 points using LEVEL STAKES method........the KELLY METHOD result will be "interesting" on this day!Tue, 30 Oct 2012 11:12:56 -0500