New Posts For Thread: Another probability questionhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453865/another-probability-questionIf you had a system that was returning 54% winners on even money chances, how many trials would make it statistically likely to be a true edge?Judge RYou say " What complicates the matter-----only throws up a bet 2-3 times a week-----so waiting for meaningful stats could be a long time ".Now I'm no statistician, but couldn't you therefore just keep tracking all future events and if they (https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453865/another-probability-question?post_id=525392743#525392743Judge RYou say " What complicates the matter-----only throws up a bet 2-3 times a week-----so waiting for meaningful stats could be a long time ".Now I'm no statistician, but couldn't you therefore just keep tracking all future events and if they (Tue, 23 Oct 2012 13:15:05 -0500statistical significance can be a pretty high bar.If I was you I would bet it with my uncertainty about the edge taken into account and track the edge as you get more bets.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453865/another-probability-question?post_id=525391263#525391263statistical significance can be a pretty high bar.If I was you I would bet it with my uncertainty about the edge taken into account and track the edge as you get more bets.Tue, 23 Oct 2012 12:39:27 -0500got called away from my desk............Thanks for the earlier replies, i'm still not really sur of a number I shoul aim for though.What complicates the matter is that the system only throws up a bet approx 2-3 times a week and there is no way to bahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453865/another-probability-question?post_id=525390405#525390405got called away from my desk............Thanks for the earlier replies, i'm still not really sur of a number I shoul aim for though.What complicates the matter is that the system only throws up a bet approx 2-3 times a week and there is no way to baTue, 23 Oct 2012 12:11:09 -0500If you are saying to calculate the figure so that the chances of the true figure being less is smaller than 1% then I calculate that number to be 839https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453865/another-probability-question?post_id=525385999#525385999If you are saying to calculate the figure so that the chances of the true figure being less is smaller than 1% then I calculate that number to be 839Tue, 23 Oct 2012 10:07:35 -0500If you are saying to calculate the figure so that the chances of the true figure being less ishttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453865/another-probability-question?post_id=525385969#525385969If you are saying to calculate the figure so that the chances of the true figure being less isTue, 23 Oct 2012 10:06:43 -0500It did it again!!https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453865/another-probability-question?post_id=525385883#525385883It did it again!!Tue, 23 Oct 2012 10:04:51 -0500Not sure what happened there, half my post disappeared.Okay, I'm not sure I get that. When you say take the average answer from a sample of trials [i.e.at least 30 bets]; are you saying, to take average answers from trial runs of the system over dihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453865/another-probability-question?post_id=525385847#525385847Not sure what happened there, half my post disappeared.Okay, I'm not sure I get that. When you say take the average answer from a sample of trials [i.e.at least 30 bets]; are you saying, to take average answers from trial runs of the system over diTue, 23 Oct 2012 10:03:48 -0500it didn't print all my formula - here is what I meant:=1-BETA.DIST(0.5, number of wins, number of losers, TRUE)https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453865/another-probability-question?post_id=525385829#525385829it didn't print all my formula - here is what I meant:=1-BETA.DIST(0.5, number of wins, number of losers, TRUE)Tue, 23 Oct 2012 10:03:27 -0500Okay, I'm not sure I get that. When you say take the average answer from a sample of trials [i.e.at least 30 bets]; are you saying, to take average answers from trial runs of the system over different numbers of sample bets?Also, when you say - I ahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453865/another-probability-question?post_id=525385757#525385757Okay, I'm not sure I get that. When you say take the average answer from a sample of trials [i.e.at least 30 bets]; are you saying, to take average answers from trial runs of the system over different numbers of sample bets?Also, when you say - I aTue, 23 Oct 2012 10:01:39 -0500ty - yes, that tallies.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453865/another-probability-question?post_id=525385753#525385753ty - yes, that tallies.Tue, 23 Oct 2012 10:01:36 -0500