New Posts For Thread: Value betting and the bad runshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453059/value-betting-and-the-bad-runsEarly season jumps for me and started really badly although massively beating the odds on everything I bet. Been doing this too long and successfully not to panic but when would be a panic point for most ie: % of initial betting bank lost.I got to 50quick update - few winners and a nice fc so back in the black but nowhere near the % profit I get normally in Oct. These overnight vultures marking bookies cards are a real pain but such is life. Just having to adapt to the changing climate on Earlyhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453059/value-betting-and-the-bad-runs?post_id=525571337#525571337quick update - few winners and a nice fc so back in the black but nowhere near the % profit I get normally in Oct. These overnight vultures marking bookies cards are a real pain but such is life. Just having to adapt to the changing climate on EarlyMon, 29 Oct 2012 00:12:33 -0500very good point.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453059/value-betting-and-the-bad-runs?post_id=525566143#525566143very good point.Sun, 28 Oct 2012 19:05:24 -0500If a person is backing heads in a coin toss at 5/4 and endures a heavy losing run it's pretty easy to absorb a losing run using a reasonablestaking strategy (kelly being the optimum one). In the long run you are bound to win as your getting factual vhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453059/value-betting-and-the-bad-runs?post_id=525562257#525562257If a person is backing heads in a coin toss at 5/4 and endures a heavy losing run it's pretty easy to absorb a losing run using a reasonablestaking strategy (kelly being the optimum one). In the long run you are bound to win as your getting factual vSun, 28 Oct 2012 16:59:25 -0500I know what you mean Investor, but ateotd I'm happy with what I make even though I know I under stake as a percentage of my bank, but that's where my comfort zone is. I'm still ambitious and increase stakes every 3 months and can afford to have a bighttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453059/value-betting-and-the-bad-runs?post_id=525474023#525474023I know what you mean Investor, but ateotd I'm happy with what I make even though I know I under stake as a percentage of my bank, but that's where my comfort zone is. I'm still ambitious and increase stakes every 3 months and can afford to have a bigThu, 25 Oct 2012 19:19:00 -0500Cheers racingguru.Trevh, I don't get it. Sounds to me like what you were doing before makes more sense. Why not use some form of fractional Kelly adjusted for Betting exchange specifics.If you go on a crazy losing run and lose 50% of bank, of coursehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453059/value-betting-and-the-bad-runs?post_id=525448903#525448903Cheers racingguru.Trevh, I don't get it. Sounds to me like what you were doing before makes more sense. Why not use some form of fractional Kelly adjusted for Betting exchange specifics.If you go on a crazy losing run and lose 50% of bank, of courseThu, 25 Oct 2012 06:45:42 -0500Investor - just my opinion but think with the fields in ireland for chases (which is what I'm referring to) being much bigger a really good run say 5th of 16 can go unraised whereas in UK its more likely to be a 2nd of 5 and raised 3 for nothing muchhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453059/value-betting-and-the-bad-runs?post_id=525409583#525409583Investor - just my opinion but think with the fields in ireland for chases (which is what I'm referring to) being much bigger a really good run say 5th of 16 can go unraised whereas in UK its more likely to be a 2nd of 5 and raised 3 for nothing muchTue, 23 Oct 2012 23:31:36 -0500Racingguru, I don't think you have anything to worry about, sounds like you know exactly what you're doing and what to expect. I've dropped 50% of the bank before too, but all the time knew that I was still getting value, but it is always stressful thttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453059/value-betting-and-the-bad-runs?post_id=525408383#525408383Racingguru, I don't think you have anything to worry about, sounds like you know exactly what you're doing and what to expect. I've dropped 50% of the bank before too, but all the time knew that I was still getting value, but it is always stressful tTue, 23 Oct 2012 21:46:48 -0500Why are Irish horses better handicapped than English?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453059/value-betting-and-the-bad-runs?post_id=525404841#525404841Why are Irish horses better handicapped than English?Tue, 23 Oct 2012 19:05:58 -0500I think I'm still calm about it all and as bet sizes are determined by modified Kelly of current bank thats not a concern.The irish horses are a royal pain in the backside especially as they are just way better handicapped than our lot. I get concernhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453059/value-betting-and-the-bad-runs?post_id=525395205#525395205I think I'm still calm about it all and as bet sizes are determined by modified Kelly of current bank thats not a concern.The irish horses are a royal pain in the backside especially as they are just way better handicapped than our lot. I get concernTue, 23 Oct 2012 14:19:39 -0500..runs of losershttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29453059/value-betting-and-the-bad-runs?post_id=525392767#525392767..runs of losersTue, 23 Oct 2012 13:15:41 -0500