New Posts For Thread: Question for analysts in football markets:https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29367705/question-for-analysts-in-football-marketsAn interesting question for you footy analysts:(Copied from football forum, as know there are a lot of analysts on this forum):Which is more crucial in determining results on football marketsa) The average previous results across a large sample of diFAFH, re my bookmaker experiences with favourites, on courseI was a bit contrary and at times didn't lay the favourite,forming an opinion most of the time. Many books stuck to the'rules' that being the favourite a loser, next two in the betting 'takehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29367705/question-for-analysts-in-football-markets?post_id=524088779#524088779FAFH, re my bookmaker experiences with favourites, on courseI was a bit contrary and at times didn't lay the favourite,forming an opinion most of the time. Many books stuck to the'rules' that being the favourite a loser, next two in the betting 'takeThu, 13 Sep 2012 07:27:26 -0500wrt corners, a mate of mine suggested a significant factor was team formation. He suggested that flat back fours led to less corners and wing backs led to more corners.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29367705/question-for-analysts-in-football-markets?post_id=524053081#524053081wrt corners, a mate of mine suggested a significant factor was team formation. He suggested that flat back fours led to less corners and wing backs led to more corners.Wed, 12 Sep 2012 05:05:02 -0500I think you have the right formula if it equates to the same price as Betfair is offering, true odds.Statistics wont help you beat the market, you need other vital information which will push the result past the true odds, maybe weather, injuries, onhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29367705/question-for-analysts-in-football-markets?post_id=524051153#524051153I think you have the right formula if it equates to the same price as Betfair is offering, true odds.Statistics wont help you beat the market, you need other vital information which will push the result past the true odds, maybe weather, injuries, onWed, 12 Sep 2012 01:22:15 -0500Very well put inner city.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29367705/question-for-analysts-in-football-markets?post_id=524043807#524043807Very well put inner city.Tue, 11 Sep 2012 17:59:43 -0500I don't think averaging of your two teams is necessarily a bad thing. It's the use of averages in which your two teams are only contributing to just under 20% of the total matches played that I personally don't use, i.e. broad league/divisional data.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29367705/question-for-analysts-in-football-markets?post_id=524043427#524043427I don't think averaging of your two teams is necessarily a bad thing. It's the use of averages in which your two teams are only contributing to just under 20% of the total matches played that I personally don't use, i.e. broad league/divisional data.Tue, 11 Sep 2012 17:45:40 -0500KI gave up applying logic to my sports betting a long time ago.In fact I would go so far as to say that now the more uncomfortable I feel with a bet, the more I get a good result.Imo the consensus view is pretty much the conventional view and as suchhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29367705/question-for-analysts-in-football-markets?post_id=524043219#524043219KI gave up applying logic to my sports betting a long time ago.In fact I would go so far as to say that now the more uncomfortable I feel with a bet, the more I get a good result.Imo the consensus view is pretty much the conventional view and as suchTue, 11 Sep 2012 17:37:22 -0500go against the consensus to win in the long term ? Do you mean opposing the market moves that seem to have no logic perhaps ?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29367705/question-for-analysts-in-football-markets?post_id=524043005#524043005go against the consensus to win in the long term ? Do you mean opposing the market moves that seem to have no logic perhaps ?Tue, 11 Sep 2012 17:29:21 -0500Averages appeal to the average man.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29367705/question-for-analysts-in-football-markets?post_id=524042911#524042911Averages appeal to the average man.Tue, 11 Sep 2012 17:26:29 -0500StuIt would seem to me that if you are looking at averages of all teams then you will not really ever find a decent edge, as this body of statistics has been looked at in depth by analysts.However if you can individualize your analysis by adding in shttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29367705/question-for-analysts-in-football-markets?post_id=524042695#524042695StuIt would seem to me that if you are looking at averages of all teams then you will not really ever find a decent edge, as this body of statistics has been looked at in depth by analysts.However if you can individualize your analysis by adding in sTue, 11 Sep 2012 17:18:55 -0500inner city sumo - I often feel like this is my approach. It makes more sense to me, as I am not betting on every match, but just this match, with these teams. The trick is how to know them though, in a way that is reliable (and that sounds like averahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29367705/question-for-analysts-in-football-markets?post_id=524042097#524042097inner city sumo - I often feel like this is my approach. It makes more sense to me, as I am not betting on every match, but just this match, with these teams. The trick is how to know them though, in a way that is reliable (and that sounds like averaTue, 11 Sep 2012 16:59:30 -0500