New Posts For Thread: Upping the amount you wager when valuehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29191247/upping-the-amount-you-wager-when-valueI just read a post elsewhere.Essentially, the person's daily bet is 2pts per baseball game.He also does a 5 pt bet per week. When asked what is different in his criteria to decide when to go 5 pt, he responded that he does the same thing daily, but sI was showing an example of "creating" your own pushhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29191247/upping-the-amount-you-wager-when-value?post_id=521127303#521127303I was showing an example of "creating" your own pushFri, 22 Jun 2012 12:32:50 -0500a 'draw no bet' would be the simplest example of a push (back and lay equal amounts on the different teams)https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29191247/upping-the-amount-you-wager-when-value?post_id=521113067#521113067a 'draw no bet' would be the simplest example of a push (back and lay equal amounts on the different teams)Fri, 22 Jun 2012 06:49:09 -0500er, in football, goalshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29191247/upping-the-amount-you-wager-when-value?post_id=521110163#521110163er, in football, goalsFri, 22 Jun 2012 05:02:16 -0500My philosophy is that if you are going to bet on a football or baseball team, you need to feel they can win by more than one run.Yes, you can just take the -1.5 but the combinations are there depending on your read of the match.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29191247/upping-the-amount-you-wager-when-value?post_id=521109403#521109403My philosophy is that if you are going to bet on a football or baseball team, you need to feel they can win by more than one run.Yes, you can just take the -1.5 but the combinations are there depending on your read of the match.Fri, 22 Jun 2012 04:23:05 -0500Quick examples / quick math:baseball:a) Having a £20 bet/same match two markets:Match odds £10 @ 1.70 £8.00 net-1.5 £10 at 2.5 = £14.50 netTeam wins by two or more = £22 profit (equivalent to 2.16)Team wins by one run = +8 less 14 = £6 lossTeahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29191247/upping-the-amount-you-wager-when-value?post_id=521109379#521109379Quick examples / quick math:baseball:a) Having a £20 bet/same match two markets:Match odds £10 @ 1.70 £8.00 net-1.5 £10 at 2.5 = £14.50 netTeam wins by two or more = £22 profit (equivalent to 2.16)Team wins by one run = +8 less 14 = £6 lossTeaFri, 22 Jun 2012 04:21:54 -0500"--- creates a "push scenario -- "Lost me there shape.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29191247/upping-the-amount-you-wager-when-value?post_id=521096145#521096145"--- creates a "push scenario -- "Lost me there shape.Thu, 21 Jun 2012 17:04:19 -0500Per Kelly, stakes should be determined by the size of the edge. 2% is usually considered a reasonable percentage as it is better to err on the side of caution if you are unsure of the edge, and raising this to 3% or 4% for exceptional (and rare) oppohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29191247/upping-the-amount-you-wager-when-value?post_id=521089927#521089927Per Kelly, stakes should be determined by the size of the edge. 2% is usually considered a reasonable percentage as it is better to err on the side of caution if you are unsure of the edge, and raising this to 3% or 4% for exceptional (and rare) oppoThu, 21 Jun 2012 14:32:34 -0500My staking is Kelly inspired (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion). When deciding my stake I take the edge I think I have and slash it in half or more though (more the more uncertain I am about my own estimate), and then maybe reduce it somehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29191247/upping-the-amount-you-wager-when-value?post_id=521068083#521068083My staking is Kelly inspired (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion). When deciding my stake I take the edge I think I have and slash it in half or more though (more the more uncertain I am about my own estimate), and then maybe reduce it someThu, 21 Jun 2012 05:30:26 -0500Mr Anderson. Besides a weekend flutter, how much do your selected bets swing?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29191247/upping-the-amount-you-wager-when-value?post_id=521067229#521067229Mr Anderson. Besides a weekend flutter, how much do your selected bets swing?Thu, 21 Jun 2012 04:55:24 -0500I feel it is about learning the math.I also think it is that 'gamblers' tend to always look at the upside ("If chelsea win, I'll get £200"....yes, but you are risking £400 and they are playing away on a muddy pitch and you could LOSE £400)My lateshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29191247/upping-the-amount-you-wager-when-value?post_id=521067217#521067217I feel it is about learning the math.I also think it is that 'gamblers' tend to always look at the upside ("If chelsea win, I'll get £200"....yes, but you are risking £400 and they are playing away on a muddy pitch and you could LOSE £400)My latesThu, 21 Jun 2012 04:54:46 -0500