New Posts For Thread: Do the odds at kick-off reflect true probability or is this just an arbitrary point in time?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29170225/do-the-odds-at-kick-off-reflect-true-probability-or-is-this-just-an-arbitrary-point-in-timeI have read many times (and do not doubt) that if you take a large sample of football games and compare the exchange odds at kick-off to the outcomes, on average the odds will be roughly correct. Would you not also have similar findings if from the sFor horses I doubt the prices at off are far off "true odds" but it wouldn't surprise me if it were 3% or so off due to mug money late, over betting steamers etc.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29170225/do-the-odds-at-kick-off-reflect-true-probability-or-is-this-just-an-arbitrary-point-in-time?post_id=520960277#520960277For horses I doubt the prices at off are far off "true odds" but it wouldn't surprise me if it were 3% or so off due to mug money late, over betting steamers etc.Mon, 18 Jun 2012 09:44:30 -0500the odds at any time reflect prediction of result based on information available regarding circumstances under which a future event will take place and outcomes will be determined. and it is logical to expect the information regarding a future outcohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29170225/do-the-odds-at-kick-off-reflect-true-probability-or-is-this-just-an-arbitrary-point-in-time?post_id=520957293#520957293the odds at any time reflect prediction of result based on information available regarding circumstances under which a future event will take place and outcomes will be determined. and it is logical to expect the information regarding a future outcoMon, 18 Jun 2012 08:15:35 -0500BJT 11 Jun 12 04:04 The reference to true odds is taken over a large sample and is making an assumption, based on the average of that large sample. As Zealot says, the smaller that sample size is, the less accurate it becomes. You simply cannohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29170225/do-the-odds-at-kick-off-reflect-true-probability-or-is-this-just-an-arbitrary-point-in-time?post_id=520956665#520956665BJT 11 Jun 12 04:04 The reference to true odds is taken over a large sample and is making an assumption, based on the average of that large sample. As Zealot says, the smaller that sample size is, the less accurate it becomes. You simply cannoMon, 18 Jun 2012 07:56:18 -0500ergo... finding said 'value' is the object of all our gambling, consciously or not. good thread, GL all.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29170225/do-the-odds-at-kick-off-reflect-true-probability-or-is-this-just-an-arbitrary-point-in-time?post_id=520944029#520944029ergo... finding said 'value' is the object of all our gambling, consciously or not. good thread, GL all.Sun, 17 Jun 2012 19:06:49 -0500The reference to true odds is taken over a large sample and is making an assumption, based on the average of that large sample. As Zealot says, the smaller that sample size is, the less accurate it becomes. You simply cannot win on the punt if everhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29170225/do-the-odds-at-kick-off-reflect-true-probability-or-is-this-just-an-arbitrary-point-in-time?post_id=520688863#520688863The reference to true odds is taken over a large sample and is making an assumption, based on the average of that large sample. As Zealot says, the smaller that sample size is, the less accurate it becomes. You simply cannot win on the punt if everSun, 10 Jun 2012 22:04:38 -0500I have found ( on football only) that as soon as markets form into a reasonable overround ( say under 102.5 %), the odds then are as as good overall as at any time thereafter up to KO time.I go into markets at pretty random times and my analysis showhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29170225/do-the-odds-at-kick-off-reflect-true-probability-or-is-this-just-an-arbitrary-point-in-time?post_id=520683839#520683839I have found ( on football only) that as soon as markets form into a reasonable overround ( say under 102.5 %), the odds then are as as good overall as at any time thereafter up to KO time.I go into markets at pretty random times and my analysis showSun, 10 Jun 2012 17:40:57 -0500If they did reflect the true odds , after commision it would be impossible to win , and that simply isnt true .The art is being able to price up a match and back/ lay accordingly . I'd say many teams odds to not reflect their true chance .https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29170225/do-the-odds-at-kick-off-reflect-true-probability-or-is-this-just-an-arbitrary-point-in-time?post_id=520683639#520683639If they did reflect the true odds , after commision it would be impossible to win , and that simply isnt true .The art is being able to price up a match and back/ lay accordingly . I'd say many teams odds to not reflect their true chance .Sun, 10 Jun 2012 17:32:43 -0500I agree with the point that a delayed kick off will typically see the odds move further .It happens with Horse Racing, when they are about to go but a horse gets loose and it goes off 10 minutes late . The 'correct' odds on what seemed to be the offhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29170225/do-the-odds-at-kick-off-reflect-true-probability-or-is-this-just-an-arbitrary-point-in-time?post_id=520663995#520663995I agree with the point that a delayed kick off will typically see the odds move further .It happens with Horse Racing, when they are about to go but a horse gets loose and it goes off 10 minutes late . The 'correct' odds on what seemed to be the offSun, 10 Jun 2012 09:08:36 -0500The actual kick-off price should be the most accurate.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29170225/do-the-odds-at-kick-off-reflect-true-probability-or-is-this-just-an-arbitrary-point-in-time?post_id=520663381#520663381The actual kick-off price should be the most accurate.Sun, 10 Jun 2012 08:53:58 -0500I have read many times (and do not doubt) that if you take a large sample of football games and compare the exchange odds at kick-off to the outcomes, on average the odds will be roughly correct. Would you not also have similar findings if from the shttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29170225/do-the-odds-at-kick-off-reflect-true-probability-or-is-this-just-an-arbitrary-point-in-time?post_id=520662261#520662261I have read many times (and do not doubt) that if you take a large sample of football games and compare the exchange odds at kick-off to the outcomes, on average the odds will be roughly correct. Would you not also have similar findings if from the sSun, 10 Jun 2012 08:28:48 -0500